Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

Sustainability principles put into practice: case studies of network analysis in Swiss climate change adaptation

Climate adaptation policies increasingly incorporate sustainability principles into their design and implementation. Since successful adaptation by means of adaptive capacity is recognized as being dependent upon progress toward sustainable development, policy design is increasingly characterized by the inclusion of state and non-state actors (horizontal actor integration), cross-sectoral collaboration, and inter-generational planning perspectives. Comparing four case studies in Swiss mountain regions, three located in the Upper Rhone region and one case from western Switzerland, we investigate how sustainability is put into practice. We argue that collaboration networks and sustainability perceptions matter when assessing the implementation of sustainability in local climate change adaptation. In other words, we suggest that adaptation is successful where sustainability perceptions translate into cross-sectoral integration and collaboration on the ground. Data about perceptions and network relations are assessed through surveys and treated via cluster and social network analysis.

Analysis of expansin-induced morphogenesis on the apical meristem of tomato

Our previous work has shown that localised activity of the cell-wall-loosening protein expansin is sufficient to induce primordia on the apical meristem of tomato, consistent with the hypothesis that tissue expansion plays a key role in leaf initiation. In this paper we describe the earliest morphogenic events visible on the surface of the apical meristem of tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) following treatment with expansin and report on the spectrum of final structures formed. Our observations are consistent with a proposed primary function of expansin effecting morphogenesis via altered biophysical stress patterns in the meristem. The primordia induced by expansin do not complete the full program of leaf development. We present data indicating that one reason for this might be the inability of exogenous expansin to mimic the endogenous pattern of expansin activity in the meristem. These data provide the first detailed analysis at the cellular level of expansin action on living tissue, the first description of the spectrum of structures induced by expansin on the apical meristem, and give an insight into a potentially fundamental mechanism in plant development.

The Texas driver responsibility program: A preliminary analysis of the impact on impaired driving and trauma system funding

Objective. In 2003, the State of Texas instituted the Driver Responsibility Program (TDRP), a program consisting of a driving infraction point system coupled with a series of graded fines and annual surcharges for specific traffic violations such as driving while intoxicated (DWI). Approximately half of the revenues generated are earmarked to be disbursed to the state's trauma system to cover uncompensated trauma care costs. This study examined initial program implementation, the impact of trauma system funding, and initial impact on impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. A model for targeted media campaigns to improve the program's deterrence effects was developed. ^ Methods. Data from two independent driver survey samples (conducted in 1999 and 2005), department of public safety records, state health department data and a state auditor's report were used to evaluate the program's initial implementation, impact and outcome with respect to drivers' impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behavior (based on constructs of social cognitive theory) and hospital uncompensated trauma care funding. Survey results were used to develop a regression model of high risk drivers who should be targeted to improve program outcome with respect to deterring impaired driving. ^ Results. Low driver compliance with fee payment (28%) and program implementation problems were associated with lower surcharge revenues in the first two years ($59.5 million versus $525 million predicted). Program revenue distribution to trauma hospitals was associated with a 16% increase in designated trauma centers. Survey data demonstrated that only 28% of drivers are aware of the TDRP and that there has been no initial impact on impaired driving behavior. Logistical regression modeling suggested that target media campaigns highlighting the likelihood of DWI detection by law enforcement and the increased surcharges associated with the TDRP are required to deter impaired driving. ^ Conclusions. Although the TDRP raised nearly $60 million in surcharge revenue for the Texas trauma system over the first two years, this study did not find evidence of a change in impaired driving knowledge, attitudes or behaviors from 1999 to 2005. Further research is required to measure whether the program is associated with decreased alcohol-related traffic fatalities. ^

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a 2-stage community-based hepatocellular carcinoma screening program in Taiwan

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been ranked as the top cause of death due to neoplasm malignancy in Taiwan for years. The high incidence of HCC in Taiwan is primarily attributed to high prevalence of hepatitis viral infection. Screening the subjects with liver cirrhosis for HCC was widely recommended by many previous studies. The latest practice guideline for management of HCC released by the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) in 2005 recommended that the high risk groups, including cirrhotic patients, chronic HBV/HCV carriers, and subjects with family history of HCC and etc., should undergo surveillance.^ This study aims to investigate (1) whether the HCC screening program can prolong survival period of the high risk group, (2) what is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HCC screening program in Taiwan, as compared with a non-screening strategy from the payer perspective, (3) which high risk group has the lowest ICER for the HCC screening program from the insurer's perspective, in comparison with no screening strategy of each group, and (4) the estimated total cost of providing the HCC screening program to all high risk groups.^ The high risk subjects in the study were identified from the communities with high prevalence of hepatitis viral infection and classified into three groups (cirrhosis group, early cirrhosis group, and no cirrhosis group) at different levels of risk to HCC by status of liver disease at the time of enrollment. The repeated ultrasound screenings at an interval of 3, 6, and 12 months were applied to cirrhosis group, early cirrhosis group, and no cirrhosis group, respectively. The Markov-based decision model was constructed to simulate progression of HCC and to estimate the ICER for each group of subjects.^ The screening group had longer survival in the statistical results and the model outcomes. Owing to the low HCC incidence rate in the community-based screening program, screening services only have limited effect on survival of the screening group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the HCC screening program was $3834 per year of life saved, in comparison with the non-screening strategy. The estimated total cost of each group from the screening model over 13.5 years approximately consumes 0.13%, 1.06%, and 0.71% of total amount of adjusted National Health Expenditure from Jan 1992 to Jun 2005. ^ The subjects at high risk of developing HCC to undergo repeated ultrasound screenings had longer survival than those without screening, but screening was not the only factor to cause longer survival in the screening group. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the 2-stage community-based HCC screening program in Taiwan was small. The HCC screening program was worthy of investment in Taiwan. In comparison with early cirrhosis group and no cirrhosis group, cirrhosis group has the lowest ICER when the screening period is less than 19 years. The estimated total cost of providing the HCC screening program to all high risk groups consumes approximately 1.90% of total amount of adjusted 13.5-year NHE in Taiwan.^

Analysis of a disaster medical track for the Certificate in Emergency Management and Preparedness Program at the University of Texas at Dallas

Since the tragic events of September 11, 2001, the United States has engaged in building the infrastructure and developing the expertise necessary to protect its borders and its citizens from further attacks against its homeland. One approach has been the development of academic courses to educate individuals on the nature and dangers of subversive attacks and to prepare them to respond to attacks and other large-scale emergencies in their roles as working professionals, participating members of their communities, and collaborators with first responders. An initial review of the literature failed to reveal any university-based emergency management courses or programs with a disaster medical component, despite the public health significance and need for such programs. In the Fall of 2003, The School of Management at The University of Texas at Dallas introduced a continuing education Certificate in Emergency Management and Preparedness Program. This thesis will (1) describe the development and implementation of a new Disaster Medical Track as a component of this Certificate in Emergency Management and Preparedness Program, (2) analyze the need for and effectiveness of this Disaster Medical Track, and (3) propose improvements in the track based on this analysis. ^

An analysis of the effects of a peer mentor program and other factors on HIV patients' retention in care and clinical outcomes at Thomas Street Health Clinic, Houston Texas

Research examining programs designed to retain patients in health care focus on repeated interactions between outreach workers and patients (Bradford et al. 2007; Cheever 2007). The purpose of this study was to determine if patients who are peer-mentored at their intake exam remain in care longer and attend more physicians' visits than those who were not mentored. Using patients' medical records and a previously created mentor database, the study determined how many patients attended their intake visit but subsequently failed to establish regular care. The cohort study examined risk factors for establishing care, determined if patients lacking a peer mentor failed to establish care more than peer mentor assisted patients, and subsequently if peer mentored patients had better health outcomes. The sample consists of 1639 patients who were entered into the Thomas Street Patient Mentor Database between May 2005 and June 2007. The assignment to the mentored group was haphazardly conducted based on mentor availability. The data from the Mentor Database was then analyzed using descriptive statistical software (SPSS version 15; SPSS Inc., Chicago, Illinois, USA). Results indicated that patients who had a mentor at intake were more likely to return for primary care HIV visits at 90 and 180 days. Mentored patients also were more likely to be prescribed ART within 180 days from intake. Other risk factors that impacted remaining in care included gender, previous care status, time from diagnosis to intake visit, and intravenous drug use. Clinical health outcomes did not differ significantly between groups. This supports that mentoring did improve outcomes. Continuing to use peer-mentoring programs for HIV care may help in increasing retention of patients in care and improving patients' health in a cost effective manner. Future research on the effects of peer mentoring on mentors, and effects of concordance of mentor and patient demographics may help to further improve peer-mentoring programs. ^

A path analysis of an after-school health and exercise program for elementary school children in El Paso, Texas

As schools are pressured to perform on academics and standardized examinations, schools are reluctant to dedicate increased time to physical activity. After-school exercise and health programs may provide an opportunity to engage in more physical activity without taking time away from coursework during the day. The current study is a secondary data analysis of data from a randomized trial of a 10-week after-school program (six schools, n = 903) that implemented an exercise component based on the CATCH physical activity component and health modules based on the culturally-tailored Bienestar health education program. Outcome variables included BMI and aerobic capacity, health knowledge and healthy food intentions as assessed through path analysis techniques. Both the baseline model (χ2 (df = 8) = 16.90, p = .031; RMSEA = .035 (90% CI of .010–.058), NNFI = 0.983 and the CFI = 0.995) and the model incorporating intervention participation proved to be a good fit to the data (χ2 (df = 10) = 11.59, p = .314. RMSEA = .013 (90% CI of .010–.039); NNFI = 0.996 and CFI = 0.999). Experimental group participation was not predictive of changes in health knowledge, intentions to eat healthy foods or changes in Body Mass Index, but it was associated with increased aerobic capacity, β = .067, p < .05. School characteristics including SES and Language proficiency proved to be significantly associated with changes in knowledge and physical indicators. Further effects of school level variables on intervention outcomes are recommended so that tailored interventions can be developed aimed at the specific characteristics of each participating school. ^

A review of economic analysis in the vaccination program; decision making and governance: Adivisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) develops written recommendations for the routine administration of vaccines to children and adults in the U.S. civilian population. The ACIP is the only entity in the federal government that makes such recommendations. ACIP elaborates on selection of its members and rules out concerns regarding its integrity, but fails to provide information about the importance of economic analysis in vaccine selection. ACIP recommendations can have large health and economic consequences. Emphasis on economic evaluation in health is a likely response to severe pressures of the federal and state health budget. This study describes the economic aspects considered by the ACIP while sanctioning a vaccine, and reviews the economic evaluations (our economic data) provided for vaccine deliberations. A five year study period from 2004 to 2009 is adopted. Publicly available data from ACIP web database is used. Drummond et al. (2005) checklist serves as a guide to assess the quality of economic evaluations presented. Drummond et al.'s checklist is a comprehensive hence it is unrealistic to expect every ACIP deliberation to meet all of their criteria. For practical purposes we have selected seven criteria that we judge to be significant criteria provided by Drummond et al. Twenty-four data points were obtained in a five year period. Our results show that out of the total twenty-four data point‘s (economic evaluations) only five data points received a score of six; that is six items on the list of seven were met. None of the data points received a perfect score of seven. Seven of the twenty-four data points received a score of five. A minimum of a two score was received by only one of the economic analyses. The type of economic evaluation along with the model criteria and ICER/QALY criteria met at 0.875 (87.5%). These three criteria were met at the highest rate among the seven criteria studied. Our study findings demonstrate that the perspective criteria met at 0.583 (58.3%) followed by source and sensitivity analysis criteria both tied at 0.541 (54.1%). The discount factor was met at 0.250 (25.0%).^ Economic analysis is not a novel concept to the ACIP. It has been practiced and presented at these meetings on a regular basis for more than five years. ACIP‘s stated goal is to utilize good quality epidemiologic, clinical and economic analyses to help policy makers choose among alternatives presented and thus achieve a better informed decision. As seen in our study the economic analyses over the years are inconsistent. The large variability coupled with lack of a standardized format may compromise the utility of the economic information for decision-making. While making recommendations, the ACIP takes into account all available information about a vaccine. Thus it is vital that standardized high quality economic information is provided at the ACIP meetings. Our study may provide a call for the ACIP to further investigate deficiencies within the system and thereby to improve economic evaluation data presented. ^

Analysis of participation in the federally mandated coal workers' health surveillance program

The Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969 required that periodic chest radiographs be offered to underground coal miners to protect the miners from the development of Coal Workers' Pneumoconiosis (CWP) and progression of the disease to progressive massive fibrosis (PMF). These examinations are administered by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) through the Coal Workers' Health Surveillance Program (CWHSP). The mine operator is required to provide each miner with the opportunity to have the chest radiograph at no cost to the miner.^ Three rounds of examinations have been conducted since 1969 and the fourth is underway. The decrease in participation over rounds is of great concern if the incidence and progression of CWP are to be understood and controlled.^ This study developed rates of participation for each of 558 West Virginia underground coal mines who submitted or had NIOSH assigned plans for making chest radiographs available during the third round, July 1978 through December 1980. These rates were analyzed in relation to desired levels of participation and to reinforcing, predisposing and enabling factors presumed to affect rates of participation in disease prevention and surveillance programs.^ Two reinforcing factors, size of mine and inclusion of the mine in the National Coal Study (NCS) epidemiology research program, and the enabling factor, use of an on-site radiograph facility, demonstrated highly significant relationships to participation rates.^ The major findings of the study were: (1) Participation in the CWHSP is even lower than previously estimated; (2) CWHSP program evaluation is not systematic and program data base is not complete and comprehensive; and (3) NIOSH program policy is not clear and administration of the CWHSP is fragmented and lacks adequate fiscal and personnel resources. ^

THE USE OF MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF COVARIANCE IN EVALUATING THE COMPARABILITY OF LABORATORY DETERMINATIONS IN COOPERATIVE STUDIES

The role of clinical chemistry has traditionally been to evaluate acutely ill or hospitalized patients. Traditional statistical methods have serious drawbacks in that they use univariate techniques. To demonstrate alternative methodology, a multivariate analysis of covariance model was developed and applied to the data from the Cooperative Study of Sickle Cell Disease.^ The purpose of developing the model for the laboratory data from the CSSCD was to evaluate the comparability of the results from the different clinics. Several variables were incorporated into the model in order to control for possible differences among the clinics that might confound any real laboratory differences.^ Differences for LDH, alkaline phosphatase and SGOT were identified which will necessitate adjustments by clinic whenever these data are used. In addition, aberrant clinic values for LDH, creatinine and BUN were also identified.^ The use of any statistical technique including multivariate analysis without thoughtful consideration may lead to spurious conclusions that may not be corrected for some time, if ever. However, the advantages of multivariate analysis far outweigh its potential problems. If its use increases as it should, the applicability to the analysis of laboratory data in prospective patient monitoring, quality control programs, and interpretation of data from cooperative studies could well have a major impact on the health and well being of a large number of individuals. ^