Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

Modeling plant transpiration under limited soil water: comparison of different plant and soil hydraulic parameterizations and preliminary implications for their use in land surface models

Accurate estimates of how soil water stress affects plant transpiration are crucial for reliable land surface model (LSM) predictions. Current LSMs generally use a water stress factor, β, dependent on soil moisture content, θ, that ranges linearly between β = 1 for unstressed vegetation and β = 0 when wilting point is reached. This paper explores the feasibility of replacing the current approach with equations that use soil water potential as their independent variable, or with a set of equations that involve hydraulic and chemical signaling, thereby ensuring feedbacks between the entire soil–root–xylem–leaf system. A comparison with the original linear θ-based water stress parameterization, and with its improved curvi-linear version, was conducted. Assessment of model suitability was focused on their ability to simulate the correct (as derived from experimental data) curve shape of relative transpiration versus fraction of transpirable soil water. We used model sensitivity analyses under progressive soil drying conditions, employing two commonly used approaches to calculate water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves. Furthermore, for each of these hydraulic parameterizations we used two different parameter sets, for 3 soil texture types; a total of 12 soil hydraulic permutations. Results showed that the resulting transpiration reduction functions (TRFs) varied considerably among the models. The fact that soil hydraulic conductivity played a major role in the model that involved hydraulic and chemical signaling led to unrealistic values of β, and hence TRF, for many soil hydraulic parameter sets. However, this model is much better equipped to simulate the behavior of different plant species. Based on these findings, we only recommend implementation of this approach into LSMs if great care with choice of soil hydraulic parameters is taken

Franz Neumann, the rule of law and the unfulfilled promise of classical liberal thought

This thesis draws on the work of Franz Neumann, a critical theorist associated with the early Frankfurt School, to evaluate liberal arguments about political legitimacy and to develop an original account of the justification for the liberal state.

Commensalism in an agroecosystem: hydraulic redistribution by deep-rooted legumes improves survival of a droughted shallow-rooted legume companion

We investigated commensalism of water use among annual shallow-rooted and perennial deep-rooted pasture legumes by examining the effect of hydraulic lift by Cullen pallidum (N.T.Burb.) J.W.Grimes and Medicago sativa on growth, survival and nutrient uptake of Trifolium subterraneum L. A vertically split-root design allowed separate control of soil water in top and bottom soil. Thirty-five days after watering ceased in the top tube, but soil remained at field capacity in the bottom tube, an increase in shallow soil water content by hydraulic lift was 5.6 and 5.9 g kg−1 soil overnight for C. pallidum and M. sativa, respectively. Trifolium subterraneum in this treatment maintained higher leaf water potentials (with M. sativa) or exhibited a slower decline (with C. pallidum) than without companion perennial plants; and shoot biomass of T. subterraneum was 56% (with C. pallidum) and 67% (with M. sativa) of that when both top and bottom tubes were at field capacity. Uptake of rubidium (a potassium analog) and phosphorus by T. subterraneum was not facilitated by hydraulic lift. Interestingly, phosphorus content was threefold greater, and shoot biomass 1.5–3.3-fold greater when T. subterraneum was interplanted with C. pallidum compared with M. sativa, although dry weight of C. pallidum was much greater than that of M. sativa. This study showed that interplanting with deep-rooted perennial legumes has benefited the survival of T. subterraneum.

Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500

We analyze the risk premia embedded in the S&P 500 spot index and option markets. We use a long time-series of spot prices and a large panel of option prices to jointly estimate the diffusive stock risk premium, the price jump risk premium, the diffusive variance risk premium and the variance jump risk premium. The risk premia are statistically and economically significant and move over time. Investigating the economic drivers of the risk premia, we are able to explain up to 63 % of these variations.

Complement 4 phenotypes and genotypes in Brazilian patients with classical 21-hydroxylase deficiency

The aim of this work was to analyse C4 genotypes, C4 protein levels, phenotypes and genotypes in patients with the classical form of 21-hydroxylase deficiency. Fifty-four patients from 46 families (36 female, 18 male; mean age 10.8 years) with different clinical manifestations (31 salt-wasting; 23 simple-virilizing) were studied. Taq I Southern blotting was used to perform molecular analysis of the C4/CYP21 gene cluster and the genotypes were defined according to gene organization within RCCX modules. Serum C4 isotypes were assayed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The results revealed 12 different haplotypes of the C4/CYP21 gene cluster. Total functional activity of the classical pathway (CH50) was reduced in individuals carrying different genotypes because of low C4 concentrations (43% of all patients) to complete or partial C4 allotype deficiency. Thirteen of 54 patients presented recurrent infections affecting the respiratory and/or the urinary tracts, none of them with severe infections. Low C4A or C4B correlated well with RCCX monomodular gene organization, but no association between C4 haplotypes and recurrent infections or autoimmunity was observed. Considering this redundant gene cluster, C4 seems to be a well-protected gene segment along the evolutionary process.

The Stern-Gerlach Phenomenon According to Classical Electrodynamics

We present a description of the Stem-Gerlach type experiments using only the concepts of classical electrodynamics and the Newton`s equations of motion. The quantization of the projections of the spin (or the projections of the magnetic dipole) is not introduced in our calculations. The main characteristic of our approach is a quantitative analysis of the motion of the magnetic atoms at the entrance of the magnetic field region. This study reveals a mechanism which modifies continuously the orientation of the magnetic dipole of the atom in a very short time interval, at the entrance of the magnetic field region. The mechanism is based on the conservation of the total energy associated with a magnetic dipole which moves in a non uniform magnetic field generated by an electromagnet. A detailed quantitative comparison with the (1922) Stem-Gerlach experiment and the didactical (1967) experiment by J.R. Zacharias is presented. We conclude, contrary to the original Stern-Gerlach statement, that the classical explanations are not ruled out by the experimental data.