Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns.

BACKGROUND: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. METHODS: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. RESULTS: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. CONCLUSIONS: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Technical note: Preliminary estimation of rockfall runout zones

Rockfall propagation areas can be determined using a simple geometric rule known as shadow angle or energy line method based on a simple Coulomb frictional model implemented in the CONEFALL computer program. Runout zones are estimated from a digital terrain model (DTM) and a grid file containing the cells representing rockfall potential source areas. The cells of the DTM that are lowest in altitude and located within a cone centered on a rockfall source cell belong to the potential propagation area associated with that grid cell. In addition, the CONEFALL method allows estimation of mean and maximum velocities and energies of blocks in the rockfall propagation areas. Previous studies indicate that the slope angle cone ranges from 27° to 37° depending on the assumptions made, i.e. slope morphology, probability of reaching a point, maximum run-out, field observations. Different solutions based on previous work and an example of an actual rockfall event are presented here.

Source wavelet estimation for waveform inversion of crosshole georadar data

AbstractFor a wide range of environmental, hydrological, and engineering applications there is a fast growing need for high-resolution imaging. In this context, waveform tomographic imaging of crosshole georadar data is a powerful method able to provide images of pertinent electrical properties in near-surface environments with unprecedented spatial resolution. In contrast, conventional ray-based tomographic methods, which consider only a very limited part of the recorded signal (first-arrival traveltimes and maximum first-cycle amplitudes), suffer from inherent limitations in resolution and may prove to be inadequate in complex environments. For a typical crosshole georadar survey the potential improvement in resolution when using waveform-based approaches instead of ray-based approaches is in the range of one order-of- magnitude. Moreover, the spatial resolution of waveform-based inversions is comparable to that of common logging methods. While in exploration seismology waveform tomographic imaging has become well established over the past two decades, it is comparably still underdeveloped in the georadar domain despite corresponding needs. Recently, different groups have presented finite-difference time-domain waveform inversion schemes for crosshole georadar data, which are adaptations and extensions of Tarantola's seminal nonlinear generalized least-squares approach developed for the seismic case. First applications of these new crosshole georadar waveform inversion schemes on synthetic and field data have shown promising results. However, there is little known about the limits and performance of such schemes in complex environments. To this end, the general motivation of my thesis is the evaluation of the robustness and limitations of waveform inversion algorithms for crosshole georadar data in order to apply such schemes to a wide range of real world problems.One crucial issue to making applicable and effective any waveform scheme to real-world crosshole georadar problems is the accurate estimation of the source wavelet, which is unknown in reality. Waveform inversion schemes for crosshole georadar data require forward simulations of the wavefield in order to iteratively solve the inverse problem. Therefore, accurate knowledge of the source wavelet is critically important for successful application of such schemes. Relatively small differences in the estimated source wavelet shape can lead to large differences in the resulting tomograms. In the first part of my thesis, I explore the viability and robustness of a relatively simple iterative deconvolution technique that incorporates the estimation of the source wavelet into the waveform inversion procedure rather than adding additional model parameters into the inversion problem. Extensive tests indicate that this source wavelet estimation technique is simple yet effective, and is able to provide remarkably accurate and robust estimates of the source wavelet in the presence of strong heterogeneity in both the dielectric permittivity and electrical conductivity as well as significant ambient noise in the recorded data. Furthermore, our tests also indicate that the approach is insensitive to the phase characteristics of the starting wavelet, which is not the case when directly incorporating the wavelet estimation into the inverse problem.Another critical issue with crosshole georadar waveform inversion schemes which clearly needs to be investigated is the consequence of the common assumption of frequency- independent electromagnetic constitutive parameters. This is crucial since in reality, these parameters are known to be frequency-dependent and complex and thus recorded georadar data may show significant dispersive behaviour. In particular, in the presence of water, there is a wide body of evidence showing that the dielectric permittivity can be significantly frequency dependent over the GPR frequency range, due to a variety of relaxation processes. The second part of my thesis is therefore dedicated to the evaluation of the reconstruction limits of a non-dispersive crosshole georadar waveform inversion scheme in the presence of varying degrees of dielectric dispersion. I show that the inversion algorithm, combined with the iterative deconvolution-based source wavelet estimation procedure that is partially able to account for the frequency-dependent effects through an "effective" wavelet, performs remarkably well in weakly to moderately dispersive environments and has the ability to provide adequate tomographic reconstructions.

Subtype-specific Modulation of Acid-sensing Ion Channel (ASIC) Function by 2-Guanidine-4-methylquinazoline.

Acid-sensing ion channels (ASICs) are neuronal Na(+)-selective channels that are transiently activated by extracellular acidification. ASICs are involved in fear and anxiety, learning, neurodegeneration after ischemic stroke, and pain sensation. The small molecule 2-guanidine-4-methylquinazoline (GMQ) was recently shown to open ASIC3 at physiological pH. We have investigated the mechanisms underlying this effect and the possibility that GMQ may alter the function of other ASICs besides ASIC3. GMQ shifts the pH dependence of activation to more acidic pH in ASIC1a and ASIC1b, whereas in ASIC3 this shift goes in the opposite direction and is accompanied by a decrease in its steepness. GMQ also induces an acidic shift of the pH dependence of inactivation of ASIC1a, -1b, -2a, and -3. As a consequence, the activation and inactivation curves of ASIC3 but not other ASICs overlap in the presence of GMQ at pH 7.4, thereby creating a window current. At concentrations >1 mm, GMQ decreases maximal peak currents by reducing the unitary current amplitude. Mutation of residue Glu-79 in the palm domain of ASIC3, previously shown to be critical for channel opening by GMQ, disrupted the GMQ effects on inactivation but not activation. This suggests that this residue is involved in the consequences of GMQ binding rather than in the binding interaction itself. This study describes the mechanisms underlying the effects of a novel class of ligands that modulate the function of all ASICs as well as activate ASIC3 at physiological pH.

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times.

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level. We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.

A mutation causing pseudohypoaldosteronism type 1 identifies a conserved glycine that is involved in the gating of the epithelial sodium channel.

Pseudohypoaldosteronism type 1 (PHA-1) is an inherited disease characterized by severe neonatal salt-wasting and caused by mutations in subunits of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel (ENaC). A missense mutation (G37S) of the human ENaC beta subunit that causes loss of ENaC function and PHA-1 replaces a glycine that is conserved in the N-terminus of all members of the ENaC gene family. We now report an investigation of the mechanism of channel inactivation by this mutation. Homologous mutations, introduced into alpha, beta or gamma subunits, all significantly reduce macroscopic sodium channel currents recorded in Xenopus laevis oocytes. Quantitative determination of the number of channel molecules present at the cell surface showed no significant differences in surface expression of mutant compared with wild-type channels. Single channel conductances and ion selectivities of the mutant channels were identical to that of wild-type. These results suggest that the decrease in macroscopic Na currents is due to a decrease in channel open probability (P(o)), suggesting that mutations of a conserved glycine in the N-terminus of ENaC subunits change ENaC channel gating, which would explain the disease pathophysiology. Single channel recordings of channels containing the mutant alpha subunit (alphaG95S) directly demonstrate a striking reduction in P(o). We propose that this mutation favors a gating mode characterized by short-open and long-closed times. We suggest that determination of the gating mode of ENaC is a key regulator of channel activity.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Colon-specific deletion of epithelial sodium channel causes sodium loss and aldosterone resistance.

Aldosterone promotes electrogenic sodium reabsorption through the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel (ENaC). Here, we investigated the importance of ENaC and its positive regulator channel-activating protease 1 (CAP1/Prss8) in colon. Mice lacking the αENaC subunit in colonic superficial cells (Scnn1a(KO)) were viable, without fetal or perinatal lethality. Control mice fed a regular or low-salt diet had a significantly higher amiloride-sensitive rectal potential difference (∆PDamil) than control mice fed a high-salt diet. In Scnn1a(KO) mice, however, this salt restriction-induced increase in ∆PDamil did not occur, and the circadian rhythm of ∆PDamil was blunted. Plasma and urinary sodium and potassium did not change with regular or high-salt diets or potassium loading in control or Scnn1a(KO) mice. However, Scnn1a(KO) mice fed a low-salt diet lost significant amounts of sodium in their feces and exhibited high plasma aldosterone and increased urinary sodium retention. Mice lacking the CAP1/Prss8 in colonic superficial cells (Prss8(KO)) were viable, without fetal or perinatal lethality. Compared with controls, Prss8(KO) mice fed regular or low-salt diets exhibited significantly reduced ∆PDamil in the afternoon, but the circadian rhythm was maintained. Prss8(KO) mice fed a low-salt diet also exhibited sodium loss through feces and higher plasma aldosterone levels. Thus, we identified CAP1/Prss8 as an in vivo regulator of ENaC in colon. We conclude that, under salt restriction, activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system in the kidney compensated for the absence of ENaC in colonic surface epithelium, leading to colon-specific pseudohypoaldosteronism type 1 with mineralocorticoid resistance without evidence of impaired potassium balance.

An external site controls closing of the epithelial Na+ channel ENaC.

Members of the ENaC/degenerin family of ion channels include the epithelial sodium channel (ENaC), acid-sensing ion channels (ASICs) and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans degenerins. These channels are activated by a variety of stimuli such as ligands (ASICs) and mechanical forces (degenerins), or otherwise are constitutively active (ENaC). Despite their functional heterogeneity, these channels might share common basic mechanisms for gating. Mutations of a conserved residue in the extracellular loop, namely the 'degenerin site' activate all members of the ENaC/degenerin family. Chemical modification of a cysteine introduced in the degenerin site of rat ENaC (betaS518C) by the sulfhydryl reagents MTSET or MTSEA, results in a approximately 3-fold increase in the open probability. This effect is due to an 8-fold shortening of channel closed times and an increase in the number of long openings. In contrast to the intracellular gating domain in the N-terminus which is critical for channel opening, the intact extracellular degenerin site is necessary for normal channel closing, as illustrated by our observation that modification of betaS518C destabilises the channel closed state. The modification by the sulfhydryl reagents is state- and size-dependent consistent with a conformational change of the degenerin site during channel opening and closing. We propose that the intracellular and extracellular modulatory sites act on a common channel gate and control the activity of ENaC at the cell surface.

Estimation du débit de filtration glomérulaire par la formule DFG = K x T/Pcr [Estimation of glomerular filtration rate by the formula GFR = K x T/Pc].

BACKGROUND: Creatinine clearance is the most common method used to assess glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In children, GFR can also be estimated without urine collection, using the formula GFR (mL/min x 1.73 m2) = K x height [cm]/Pcr [mumol/L]), where Pcr represents the plasma creatinine concentration. K is usually calculated using creatinine clearance (Ccr) as an index of GFR. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the reliability of the formula, using the standard UV/P inulin clearance to calculate K. METHODS: Clearance data obtained in 200 patients (1 month to 23 years) during the years 1988-1994 were used to calculate the factor K as a function of age. Forty-four additional patients were studied prospectively in conditions of either hydropenia or water diuresis in order to evaluate the possible variation of K as a function of urine flow rate. RESULTS: When GFR was estimated by the standard inulin clearance, the calculated values of K was 39 (infants less than 6 months), 44 (1-2 years) and 47 (2-12 years). The correlation between the values of GFR, as estimated by the formula, and the values measured by the standard clearance of inulin was highly significant; the scatter of individual values was however substantial. When K was calculated using Ccr, the formula overestimated Cin at all urine flow rates. When calculated from Ccr, K varied as a function of urine flow rate (K = 50 at urine flow rates of 3.5 and K = 64 at urine flow rates of 8.5 mL/min x 1.73 m2). When calculated from Cin, in the same conditions, K remained constant with a value of 50. CONCLUSIONS: The formula GFR = K x H/Pcr can be used to estimate GFR. The scatter of values precludes however the use of the formula to estimate GFR in pathophysiological studies. The formula should only be used when K is calculated from Cin, and the plasma creatinine concentration is measured in well defined conditions of hydration.