505 resultados para Catastrophic Misinterpretation


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Ultrasonic waves interact in a complex manner with the metallurgical structure of austenitic weldments resulting in ambiguity when interpreting reflections and at times in misinterpretation of defect positions. In this work, current knowledge of the structure of austenitic welds is outlined, and the influence of this structure on the propagation of ultrasonic waves is reviewed. Using an established and highly accurate technique, data on velocity variations as a function of the angle between the direction of soundwave propagation and the axes of preferred grain orientation existing in such welds, are experimentally obtained. These results and existing theory are used to provide quantitative evidence of (i) anisotropy factors in austenitic welds, (ii) beam skewing effects for different wave modes and polarizations, and (iii) the extent of acoustic impedance mismatch between parent and weld metals. The existence of "false" indications is demonstrated, and suggestions are made into their nature. The effectiveness of conventional transverse wave techniques for inspecting artificial and real defects existing in austenitic weldments is experimentally investigated, the limitations are demonstrated, and possible solutions are proposed. The possibilities offered by the use of longitudinal angle probes for ultrasonic inspection of real and artificial defects existing in austenitic weldments are experimentally investigated, and parameters such as probe angle, frequency and scanning position are evaluated. Detailed work has been carried out on the interaction of ultrasound with fatigue and corrosion-fatigue cracks in the weld metal and the heat affected zones (HAZs) of 316 and 347 types of austenitic weldments, together with the influence of elastic compressive stresses, defect topography and defect geometry. Practical applications of all results are discussed, and more effective means of ultrasonic inspection of austenitic weldments are suggested.

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The heightened threat of terrorism has caused governments worldwide to plan for responding to large-scale catastrophic incidents. In England the New Dimension Programme supplies equipment, procedures and training to the Fire and Rescue Service to ensure the country's preparedness to respond to a range of major critical incidents. The Fire and Rescue Service is involved partly by virtue of being able to very quickly mobilize a large skilled workforce and specialist equipment. This paper discusses the use of discrete event simulation modeling to understand how a fire and rescue service might position its resources before an incident takes place, to best respond to a combination of different incidents at different locations if they happen. Two models are built for this purpose. The first model deals with mass decontamination of a population following a release of a hazardous substance—aiming to study resource requirements (vehicles, equipment and manpower) necessary to meet performance targets. The second model deals with the allocation of resources across regions—aiming to study cover level and response times, analyzing different allocations of resources, both centralized and decentralized. Contributions to theory and practice in other contexts (e.g. the aftermath of natural disasters such as earthquakes) are outlined.

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We report the performance of a group of adult dyslexics and matched controls in an array-matching task where two strings of either consonants or symbols are presented side by side and have to be judged to be the same or different. The arrays may differ either in the order or identity of two adjacent characters. This task does not require naming – which has been argued to be the cause of dyslexics’ difficulty in processing visual arrays – but, instead, has a strong serial component as demonstrated by the fact that, in both groups, Reaction times (RTs) increase monotonically with position of a mismatch. The dyslexics are clearly impaired in all conditions and performance in the identity conditions predicts performance across orthographic tasks even after age, performance IQ and phonology are partialled out. Moreover, the shapes of serial position curves are revealing of the underlying impairment. In the dyslexics, RTs increase with position at the same rate as in the controls (lines are parallel) ruling out reduced processing speed or difficulties in shifting attention. Instead, error rates show a catastrophic increase for positions which are either searched later or more subject to interference. These results are consistent with a reduction in the attentional capacity needed in a serial task to bind together identity and positional information. This capacity is best seen as a reduction in the number of spotlights into which attention can be split to process information at different locations rather than as a more generic reduction of resources which would also affect processing the details of single objects.

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These case studies from CIMA highlight the need to embed risk management within more easily understood behaviours, consistent with the overall organisational culture. In each case, some form of internal audit team provides either an oversight function or acts as an expert link in that feedback loop. Frontline staff, managers and specialists should be completely aligned on risk, in part just to ensure that there is a consistency of approach. They should understand instinctively that good performance includes good risk management. Tesco has continued to thrive during the recession and remains a robust and efficient group of businesses despite the emergence of potential threats around consumer spending and the supply chain. RBS, by contrast, has suffered catastrophic and very public failures of risk management despite a large in-house function and stiff regulation of risk controls. Birmingham City Council, like all local authorities, is adapting to more commercial modes of operation and is facing diverse threats and opportunities emerging as a result of social change. And DCMS, like many other public sector organisations, has to handle an incredibly complex network of delivery partners within the context of a relatively recent overhaul of central government risk management processes. Key Findings: •Risk management is no longer solely a financial discipline, nor is it simply a concern for the internal control function. •Where organisations retain a discrete risk management cadre – often specialists at monitoring and evaluating a range of risks – their success is dependent on embedding risk awareness in the wider culture of the enterprise. •Risk management is most successful when it is explicitly linked to operational performance. •Clear leadership, specific goals, excellent influencing skills and open-mindedness to potential threats and opportunities are essential for effective risk management. •Bureaucratic processes and systems can hamper good risk management – either as a result of a ‘box-ticking mentality’ or because managers and staff believe they do not need to consider risk themselves.

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Sustainable development support, balanced scorecard development and business process modeling are viewed from the position of systemology. Extensional, intentional and potential properties of a system are considered as necessary to satisfy functional requirements of a meta-system. The correspondence between extensional, intentional and potential properties of a system and sustainable, unsustainable, crisis and catastrophic states of a system is determined. The inaccessibility cause of the system mission is uncovered. The correspondence between extensional, intentional and potential properties of a system and balanced scorecard perspectives is showed. The IDEF0 function modeling method is checked against balanced scorecard perspectives. The correspondence between balanced scorecard perspectives and IDEF0 notations is considered.

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The saxicolous lichen vegetation on Ordovician slate rock at the mouth of the River Dovey, South Merionethshire, Wales was described in relation to several environmental variables which include aspect, slope angle, light intensity, rock porosity, rock microtopography and rock stability. Each of the measured environmental variables was shown to influence the lichen vegetation. A number of groups of species which were characteristic of certain environments were described. The data from the saxicolous lichen communities were analysed using multivariate analysis. Qualitative and quantitative data were ordinated, the qualitative data being easier to interpret ecologically, and site number (which reflects distance from the sea and altitude), rock porosity and light intensity were shown to be important environmental variables. A classification of the data was also carried out. The results of the ordination and classification were combined together and a model constructed which describes saxicolous lichen vegetation. A method which uses the model as an aid to the design and interpretation of field experiments is described. The model is applied to an experiment which investigates the effect on growth of transplanting four saxicolous lichens to different aspects. Growth was inhibited in Physcia orbicularis and Parmelia conspersa on rock surfaces of northwest aspect compared with growth on rock surfaces of southeast aspect. Growth was inhibited in Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa on rock surfaces of southeast aspect compared with rock surfaces of northwesr aspect. The growth of Parmelia saxatilis was similar at both southeast and northwesr aspects. Growth inhibition or stimulation in thalli of Physcia orbicularis, Parmelia conspersa and Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa after transplantation was consistent with the predictions of the model while the results for Parmelia saxatilis were not as expected. There was evidence that the frequency of Parmelia conspersa and Parmelia glabratula at a site is related to an effect of the environment on the growth of the thalli. There was also evidence that the frequency of Physcia orbicularis at a site is related to an effect of the environment on the establishment phase of the thalli and for the competitive exclusion of Parmelia saxatilis thalli from southeast facing rock surfaces. The distribution of lichens in relation to height on nine rock surfaces was investigated. It was suggested that the distribution of the lichens was influenced by microclimatic factors which are related to height on the rock, environmental variables which are associated with the rock substratum (e.g. rock porosity and rock microtopography) and by historical factors. The pattern of one crustose and one foliose lichen on four rock surfaces of different aspect and slope was investigated. On the vertically inclined surface the density of small thalli of Buellia aethalea and Parmelia glabratula ssp fuliginosa was correlated with the microtopography of the surface in transects horizontally across the rock surface but not in transects vertically down the rock surface. there were consitent differences in the scale and intensity of pattern horizontally and vertically and also a decrease in the intensity of pattern vertically as the slope of the rock surface decreased. These results were consistent with the suggestion of a gradient of microclimatic factors up the rock. The differences in the scale and intensity of pattern in different size classes in the population were consistent with the changes in pattern with time which have been shown to occur during succession in sand dune and salt marsh vegetation. The relationship between thallus size and height on a rock surface and between the radial growth rate and location of a thallus on a rock surface were investigated. Thalli of Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa were larger at the top of the rock surface than at the bottom and the data were consistent with the suggestion that the colonisation of the rock surface began at the top and, in time, spread downwards. The radial growth rate of the thalli could not be related to variation in slope, porosity, microtopography or directly to height on the rock but could be related to the horizontal location of the thalli on the rock. These results were consistent with the suggestion that here is a gradient of microclimatic factors across the rock surface which is also modified by height on the rock surface. The succession of lichen communities was described by relating the vegetation to rock porosity, rock microtopography, species diversity and rock stability. An initial stage dominated by crustose lichens leads to communities dominated by crustose, foliose and fruticose species. In the late stages of the succession on some rock surfaces crustose species again become dominant. The occurrence of the climax state and cyclic vegetation change in lichen communities are discussed. A mthod of estimating the age structure of a lichen population by relating thallus size to growth rate is described. The sources of error in the method are discussed in some detail and several refinements suggested to increase the accuracy of the method. The population dynamics of Parmelia glabratula ssp. fuliginosa was investigated by applying life tables to the age structures of eight different populations. The data were consistent with a period of relatively constant recruitment of thalli into the populations. Mortality in lichen populations was divided into deaths which occur after fragmentation of the thallus and deaths which occur after catastrophic environmental events. THe data suggest that the rate of fragmenting death is dependent on the age of the thallus while the rate of catastrophic death is dependent on the number of thalli established in an age class. A comparison of the numbers of thalli in each age class in the eight populations suggested that population density is controlled firstly, by climate and secondly, by variables related to the local rock surface environment. The rate of fragmenting death is related to the diversity of the community and the influence of diversity together with environmental variables in fluctuating or cyclic changes in population number.

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Михаил М. Константинов, Петко Х. Петков - Разгледани са възможните катастрофални ефекти от неправилното използване на крайна машинна аритметика с плаваща точка. За съжаление, тази тема не винаги се разбира достатъчно добре от студентите по приложна и изчислителна математика, като положението в инженерните и икономическите специалности в никакъв случай не е по-добро. За преодоляване на този образователен пропуск тук сме разгледали главните виновници за загубата на точност при числените компютърни пресмятания. Надяваме се, че представените резултати ще помогнат на студентите и лекторите за по-добро разбиране и съответно за избягване на основните фактори, които могат да разрушат точността при компютърните числени пресмятания. Последното не е маловажно – числените катастрофи понякога стават истински, с големи щети и човешки жертви.

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The advent of global competition has introduced the need for new competitive manufacturing strategies. The implementation of new strategies has a dramatic effect on measuring product cost compared to traditional management accounting methods. It is found that new cost management methods are required to measure success and support decision-making within the new strategies. One example is the consequences of using traditional management accounting methods for measuring the effects of lean having catastrophic results during reporting. Such results steer managers away from lean manufacture based upon a false picture of the potential benefits. This research examines cost management methods potentially applicable within the automotive supplier sector. Because of the lack of cost-related data collected within the supplier sector companies, this paper ends with a demonstration of a novel method for use in data scarce environments. Copyright © 2008 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

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Over the past two decades, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea has allegedly developed nuclear energy while suffering near collapse caused by catastrophic economic policies. This article presents an evaluation of North Korea's contemporary energy policies and suggests that despite retaining communist ideals and "Chu'che" policies, North Korea has slowly started to modernise its energy sector and recognises the necessity to start engaging with the international community. While it is argued that Pyongyang's newfound concerns for sustainable development, equity and the environment are a welcomed departure from its usual belligerent rhetoric and present a number of exciting engagement opportunities, the regime has not abandoned its nuclear energy programme.

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Reliability of power converters is of crucial importance in switched reluctance motor drives used for safety-critical applications. Open-circuit faults in power converters will cause the motor to run in unbalanced states, and if left untreated, they will lead to damage to the motor and power modules, and even cause a catastrophic failure of the whole drive system. This study is focused on using a single current sensor to detect open-circuit faults accurately. An asymmetrical half-bridge converter is considered in this study and the faults of single-phase open and two-phase open are analysed. Three different bus positions are defined. On the basis of a fast Fourier transform algorithm with Blackman window interpolation, the bus current spectrums before and after open-circuit faults are analysed in details. Their fault characteristics are extracted accurately by the normalisations of the phase fundamental frequency component and double phase fundamental frequency component, and the fault characteristics of the three bus detection schemes are also compared. The open-circuit faults can be located by finding the relationship between the bus current and rotor position. The effectiveness of the proposed diagnosis method is validated by the simulation results and experimental tests.

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This paper presents a diagnostic and prognostic condition monitoring method for insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) power modules for use primarily in electric vehicle applications. The wire-bond-related failure, one of the most commonly observed packaging failures, is investigated by analytical and experimental methods using the on-state voltage drop as a failure indicator. A sophisticated test bench is developed to generate and apply the required current/power pulses to the device under test. The proposed method is capable of detecting small changes in the failure indicators of the IGBTs and freewheeling diodes and its effectiveness is validated experimentally. The novelty of the work lies in the accurate online testing capacity for diagnostics and prognostics of the power module with a focus on the wire bonding faults, by injecting external currents into the power unit during the idle time. Test results show that the IGBT may sustain a loss of half the bond wires before the impending fault becomes catastrophic. The measurement circuitry can be embedded in the IGBT drive circuits and the measurements can be performed in situ when the electric vehicle stops in stop-and-go, red light traffic conditions, or during routine servicing.

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Carbon pricing policy is a fundamental humanly devised theoretical and practical cornerstone in the fight against climate change. It involves short term and long term policies, theoretical and practical considerations. A quantitative global stabilisation target range for the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is needed, because it is an important and useful foundation in the shaping of a comprehensive climate pricing policy. A global stabilisation target range is obviously a long term policy to control climate change and events ensuing excessive increase in temperature. Setting long term objectives in the fight against climate change are substantial in avoiding catastrophic consequences therefore short term policies, which aim advances in emission reductions, have to be consistent with the pre-defined long term stabilisation goals. Short term policy reaction means using price-driven instruments like taxes and tradable quotas. These instruments allow broad flexibility in the parameters of emission reduction, and provide opportunities and incentives wherewith the cost of mitigation and abatement can be kept down. Taxes and tradable quotas give the flexibility in how, where and when emission reduction can be accomplished thereby reaching agreements between states and companies may result an appropriate and environment-conscious emission scheme, that can fit into the long term objectives.

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Small errors proved catastrophic. Our purpose to remark that a very small cause which escapes our notice determined a considerable effect that we cannot fail to see, and then we say that the effect is due to chance. Small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the latter. When dealing with any kind of electrical device specification, it is important to note that there exists a pair of test conditions that define a test: the forcing function and the limit. Forcing functions define the external operating constraints placed upon the device tested. The actual test defines how well the device responds to these constraints. Forcing inputs to threshold for example, represents the most difficult testing because this put those inputs as close as possible to the actual switching critical points and guarantees that the device will meet the Input-Output specifications. ^ Prediction becomes impossible by classical analytical analysis bounded by Newton and Euclides. We have found that non linear dynamics characteristics is the natural state of being in all circuits and devices. Opportunities exist for effective error detection in a nonlinear dynamics and chaos environment. ^ Nowadays there are a set of linear limits established around every aspect of a digital or analog circuits out of which devices are consider bad after failing the test. Deterministic chaos circuit is a fact not a possibility as it has been revived by our Ph.D. research. In practice for linear standard informational methodologies, this chaotic data product is usually undesirable and we are educated to be interested in obtaining a more regular stream of output data. ^ This Ph.D. research explored the possibilities of taking the foundation of a very well known simulation and modeling methodology, introducing nonlinear dynamics and chaos precepts, to produce a new error detector instrument able to put together streams of data scattered in space and time. Therefore, mastering deterministic chaos and changing the bad reputation of chaotic data as a potential risk for practical system status determination. ^

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In the year 2001, the Commission on Dietetic Registration (CDR) will begin a new process of recertifying Registered Dietitians (RD) using a self-directed lifelong learning portfolio model. The model, entitled Professional Development 2001 (PD 2001), is designed to increase competency through targeted learning. This portfolio consists of five steps: reflection, learning needs assessment, formulation of a learning plan, maintenance of a learning log, and evaluation of the learning plan. By targeting learning, PD 2001 is predicted to foster more up-to-date practitioners than the current method that requires only a quantity of continuing education hours. This is the first major change in the credentialing system since 1975. The success or failure of the new system will impact the future of approximately 60,000 practitioners. The purpose of this study was to determine the readiness of RDs to change to the new system. Since the model is dependent on setting goals and developing learning plans, this study examined the methods dietitians use to determine their five-year goals and direction in practice. It also determined RD's attitudes towards PD 2001 and identified some of the factors that influenced their beliefs. A dual methodological design using focus groups and questionnaires was utilized. Sixteen focus groups were held during state dietetic association meetings. Demographic data was collected on the 132 registered dietitians who participated in the focus groups using a self-administered questionnaire. The audiotaped sessions were transcribed into 643 pages of text and analyzed using Non-numerical Unstructured Data - Indexing Searching and Theorizing (NUD*IST version 4). Thirty-four of the 132 participants (26%) had formal five-year goals. Fifty-four participants (41%) performed annual self-assessments. In general, dietitians did not currently have professional goals nor conduct self-assessments and they claimed they did not have the skills or confidence to perform these tasks. Major barriers to successful implementation of PD 2001 are uncertainty, misinterpretation, and misinformation about the process and purpose, which in turn contribute to negative impressions. Renewed vigor to provide a positive, accurate message along with presenting goal-setting strategies will be necessary for better acceptance of this professional development process. ^

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Catastrophic failure from intentional terrorist attacks on surface transportation infrastructure could he detrimental to the society. In order to minimize the vulnerabilities and to ensure a safe transportation system, the issue of security for transportation structures, primarily bridges, which are subjected to man-made hazards is investigated in this study. A procedure for identifying and prioritizing "critical bridges" using a screening and prioritization processes is established. For each of the "critical" bridges, a systematic risk-based assessment approach is proposed that takes into account the combination of threat occurrence likelihood, its consequences, and the socioeconomic importance of the bridge. A series of effective security countermeasures are compiled in the four categories of deterrence, detection, defense and mitigation to help reduce the vulnerability of critical bridges. The concepts of simplified equivalent I-shape cross section and virtual materials are proposed for integration into a nonlinear finite element model, which helps assess the performance of reinforced concrete structures with and without composite retrofit or hardening measures under blast loading. A series of parametric studies are conducted for single column and two-column pier frame systems as well as for an entire bridge. The parameters considered include column height, column type, concrete strength, longitudinal steel reinforcement ratio, thickness, fiber angle and tensile strength of the fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) tube, shape of the cross section, damping ratio and different bomb sizes. The study shows the benefits of hardening with composites against blast loading. The effect of steel reinforcement on blast resistance of the structure is more significant than the effect of concrete compressive strength. Moreover, multiple blasts do not necessarily lead to a more severe destruction than a single detonation at a strategically vulnerable location on the bridges.