Alveolar echinococcosis of the liver: Diffusion-weighted MRI findings and potential role in lesion characterisation

PURPOSE: To report the diffusion-weighted MRI findings in alveolar echinococcosis (AE) of the liver and evaluate the potential role of apparent diffusion coefficients (ADCs) in the characterisation of lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively included 22 patients with 63 AE liver lesions (≥1cm), examined with 3-T liver MRI, including a free-breathing diffusion-weighted single-shot echo-planar imaging sequence (b-values=50, 300 and 600s/mm(2)). Two radiologists jointly assessed the following lesion features: size, location, presence of cystic and/or solid components (according to Kodama's classification system), relative contrast enhancement, and calcifications (on CT). The ADCtotal, ADCmin and ADCmax were measured in each lesion and the surrounding liver parenchyma. RESULTS: Three type 1, 19 type 2, 17 type 3, three type 4 and 21 type 5 lesions were identified. The mean (±SD) ADCtotal, ADCmin and ADCmax for all lesions were 1.73±0.50, 0.76±0.38 and 2.63±0.76×10(-3)mm(2)/s, respectively. The mean ADCtotal for type 1, type 2, type 3, type 4 and type 5 lesions were 1.97±1.01, 1.76±0.53, 1.73±0.41, 1.15±0.42 and 1.76±0.44×10(-3)mm(2)/s, respectively. No significant differences were found between the five lesion types, except for type 4 (p=0.0363). There was a significant correlation between the presence of a solid component and low ADCmin (r=0.39, p=0.0016), whereas an inverse correlation was found between the relative contrast enhancement and ADCtotal (r=-0.34, p=0.0072). CONCLUSION: The ADCs of AE lesions are relatively low compared to other cystic liver lesions, which may help in the differential diagnosis. Although ADCs are of little use to distinguish between the five lesion types, their low value reflects the underlying solid component.

The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances

The application of multi-region environmental input-output (IO) analysis to the problem of accounting for emissions generation (and/or resource use) under different accounting principles has become increasingly common in the ecological and environmental economics literature in particular, with applications at the international and interregional subnational level. However, while environmental IO analysis is invaluable in accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. Where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, extension from an IO accounting framework to a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach, where behavioural relationships can be modelled in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is appropriate. Our argument is illustrated by comparing the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels effect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 2)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS), which allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Modern British Retailing in the Late 20th Century: Increasing Value?

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Work Hours, Social Value of Leisure and Globalisation

We examine how openness interacts with the coordination of consumption-leisure decisions in determining the equilibrium working hours and wage rate when there are leisure externalities (e.g., due to social interactions). The latter are modelled by allowing a worker’s marginal utility of leisure to be increasing in the leisure time taken by other workers. Coordination takes the form of internalising the leisure externality and other relevant constraints (e.g., labour demand). The extent of openness is measured by the degree of capital mobility. We find that: coordination lowers equilibrium work hours and raises the wage rate; there is a U-shaped (inverse-U-shaped) relationship between work hours (wages) and the degree of coordination; coordination is welfare improving; and, the gap between the coordinated and uncoordinated work hours (and the corresponding wage rates) is affected by the extent and nature of openness.

Is MDCT enough reliable for the evaluation of acute colitis including the underlying etiology? : correlation with colonoscopy and pathology : P2

Purpose: 1. To assess the diagnostic value of MDCT for acute colitis of various origin confirmed by colonoscopy and histology. 2. To evaluate the accuracy of MDCT of making the correct differential diagnosis. Methods and materials: The electronic hospital database from January 2006 to August 2008 revealed 351 patients with acute colitis of any origin wdetected by colonoscopy. In 85 out of these patients MDCT had been simultaneously performed (delay 3.1 days). Two radiologists jointly reviewed their corresponding CT features without knowledge of pathology and correlated them with the final histological diagnosis. Results: Eighty patients were finally included (46 women, mean age 63.4). Colitis was of ischemic (n = 35, 44%) or infectious (n = 15, 19%) origin. 18 patients (23%) had acute ulcerative colitis or Crohn's disease, in 10 patients (12%) another inflammatory cause and in two patients (2%) post radiation colitis was proven. MDCT was positive in 63 patients (78.9%). In 11 out of the 17 negative MDCT, the examination had been performed without large bowel distention. Ischemic colitis was responsible for 47.1% of the negative MDCT. Correct differential diagnosis was made in 32 (50.7%) out of the 63 positive MDCT. Among the different etiologies, the ischemic colitis was the most often misdiagnosed cause (n = 17, 58.6%). Conclusion: Large bowel distension is mandatory for reliable MDCT detection of acute colitis of any origin. Among the different aetiologies the ischemic cause is the most often associated with false negative MDCT findings and, in case of positive features, the most difficult to recognize as such.

The added value from a general equilibrium analyses of increased efficiency in household energy use

The aim of the paper is to identify the added value from using general equilibrium techniques to consider the economy-wide impacts of increased efficiency in household energy use. We take as an illustrative case study the effect of a 5% improvement in household energy efficiency on the UK economy. This impact is measured through simulations that use models that have increasing degrees of endogeneity but are calibrated on a common data set. That is to say, we calculate rebound effects for models that progress from the most basic partial equilibrium approach to a fully specified general equilibrium treatment. The size of the rebound effect on total energy use depends upon: the elasticity of substitution of energy in household consumption; the energy intensity of the different elements of household consumption demand; and the impact of changes in income, economic activity and relative prices. A general equilibrium model is required to capture these final three impacts.

Consumption Decisions When People Value Conformity

In this paper we assume that for some commodities individuals may wish to adjust their levels of consumption from their normal Marshallian levels so as to match the consumption levels of a group of other individuals, in order to signal that they conform to the consumption norms of that group. Unlike Veblen’s concept of conspicuous consumption this can mean that some individuals may reduce their consumption of the relevant commodities. We model this as a three-stage game in which individuals first decide whether or not they wish to adhere to a norm, then decide which norm they wish to adhere to, and finally decide their actual consumption. We present a number of examples of the resulting equilibria, and then discuss the potential policy implications of this model.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

II Workshop on the use of Computed Tomography (CT) in pig carcass classification. Other CT applications: live animals and meat technology, 16-17th April 2009, Monells (Girona), Spain

Es va realitzar el II Workshop en Tomografia Computeritzada (TC) a Monells. El primer dia es va dedicar íntegrament a la utilització del TC en temes de classificació de canals porcines, i el segon dia es va obrir a altres aplicacions del TC, ja sigui en animals vius o en diferents aspectes de qualitat de la carn o els productes carnis. Al workshop hi van assistir 45 persones de 12 països de la UE. The II workshop on the use of Computed Tomography (CT) in pig carcass classification. Other CT applications: live animals and meat technology was held in Monells. The first day it was dedicated to the use of CT in pig carcass classification. The segond day it was open to otehr CT applications, in live animals or in meat and meat products quality. There were 45 assistants of 12 EU countries.