Designed Extension of Survival Studies: Application to Clinical Trials with Unrecognized Heterogeneity

It is well known that unrecognized heterogeneity among patients, such as is conferred by genetic subtype, can undermine the power of randomized trial, designed under the assumption of homogeneity, to detect a truly beneficial treatment. We consider the conditional power approach to allow for recovery of power under unexplained heterogeneity. While Proschan and Hunsberger (1995) confined the application of conditional power design to normally distributed observations, we consider more general and difficult settings in which the data are in the framework of continuous time and are subject to censoring. In particular, we derive a procedure appropriate for the analysis of the weighted log rank test under the assumption of a proportional hazards frailty model. The proposed method is illustrated through application to a brain tumor trial.

Full publication of results initially presented in abstracts

BACKGROUND: Abstracts of presentations at scientific meetings are usually available only in conference proceedings. If subsequent full publication of abstract results is based on the magnitude or direction of study results, publication bias may result. Publication bias, in turn, creates problems for those conducting systematic reviews or relying on the published literature for evidence. OBJECTIVES: To determine the rate at which abstract results are subsequently published in full, and the time between meeting presentation and full publication. To assess the association between study characteristics and full publication. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index, reference lists, and author files. Date of most recent search: June 2003. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all reports that examined the subsequent full publication rate of biomedical results initially presented as abstracts or in summary form. Follow-up of abstracts had to be at least two years. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers extracted data. We calculated the weighted mean full publication rate and time to full publication. Dichotomous variables were analyzed using relative risk and random effects models. We assessed time to publication using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. MAIN RESULTS: Combining data from 79 reports (29,729 abstracts) resulted in a weighted mean full publication rate of 44.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 43.9 to 45.1). Survival analyses resulted in an estimated publication rate at 9 years of 52.6% for all studies, 63.1% for randomized or controlled clinical trials, and 49.3% for other types of study designs.'Positive' results defined as any 'significant' result showed an association with full publication (RR = 1.30; CI 1.14 to 1.47), as did 'positive' results defined as a result favoring the experimental treatment (RR =1.17; CI 1.02 to 1.35), and 'positive' results emanating from randomized or controlled clinical trials (RR = 1.18, CI 1.07 to 1.30).Other factors associated with full publication include oral presentation (RR = 1.28; CI 1.09 to 1.49); acceptance for meeting presentation (RR = 1.78; CI 1.50 to 2.12); randomized trial study design (RR = 1.24; CI 1.14 to 1.36); and basic research (RR = 0.79; CI 0.70 to 0.89). Higher quality of abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials was also associated with full publication (RR = 1.30, CI 1.00 to 1.71). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Only 63% of results from abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials are published in full. 'Positive' results were more frequently published than not 'positive' results.

Effect of cinacalcet cessation in renal transplant recipients with persistent hyperparathyroidism

BACKGROUND: Persistent hyperparathyroidism after renal transplantation affects bone and allografts. Cinacalcet, a calcimimetic, reduces serum calcium and PTH in renal transplant recipients with persistent hyperparathyroidism. Here, we address the question whether this effect of cinacalcet persists after withdrawal. METHODS: Therefore, cinacalcet was stopped after 12 months treatment in 10 stable renal transplant patients. Serum calcium, phosphate, PTH, creatinine and cystatin C were monitored for 3 months. RESULTS: Serum calcium, normalized in nine patients before cessation of cinacalcet (2.32 +/- 0.05mmol/l, mean +/- SEM), increased after 3 months of discontinuation by 0.17 +/- 0.04mmol/l, P < 0.05, but remained within the normal range in eight patients. Compared with the time point of cessation, PTH remained unchanged or decreased further after 3 months without therapy in six patients. Measurements of cystatin C suggested an improvement of the glomerular filtration rate after cessation in 9 out of 10 patients (1.55 +/- 0.09 vs 1.33 +/- 0.12 mg/l, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: First, a beneficial effect of cinacalcet beyond the duration of a 12-month therapy appears to be present in some patients and second, the previously suspected influence of cinacalcet therapy on renal function is reversible. Thus, it is reasonable to consider a trial of cinacalcet cessation to identify these patients. The optimal time point for such a discontinuation is unknown. The present observations are preliminary. They clearly require a prospective randomized trial for definitive confirmation.

Comparison of intraarterial and intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke with hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: It is unclear whether intraarterial (IAT) or intravenous (IVT) thrombolysis is more effective for ischemic stroke with hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign (HMCAS) on computed tomography (CT). The aim of this study was to compare IAT and IVT in stroke patients with HMCAS. METHODS: Comparison of data from 2 stroke units with similar management of stroke associated with HMCAS, except that 1 unit performed IAT with urokinase and the other IVT with plasminogen activator. Time to treatment was up to 6 hours for IAT and up to 3 hours for IVT. Outcome was measured by mortality and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), dichotomized at 3 months into favorable (mRS 0 to 2) and unfavorable (mRS 3 to 6). RESULTS: One hundred twelve patients exhibited a HMCAS, 55 of 268 patients treated with IAT and 57 of 249 patients who underwent IVT. Stroke severity at baseline and patient age were similar in both groups. Mean time to treatment was longer in the IAT group (244+/-63 minutes) than in the IVT group (156+/-21 minutes; P=0.0001). However, favorable outcome was more frequent after IAT (n=29, 53%) than after IVT (n=13, 23%; P=0.001), and mortality was lower after IAT (n=4, 7%) than after IVT (n=13, 23%; P=0.022). After multiple regression analysis IAT was associated with a more favorable outcome than IVT (P=0.003) but similar mortality (P=0.192). CONCLUSIONS: In this observational study intraarterial thrombolysis was more beneficial than IVT in the specific group of stroke patients presenting with HMCAS on CT, even though IAT was started later. Our results indicate that a randomized trial comparing both thrombolytic treatments in patients with middle cerebral artery occlusion is warranted.

Thrombolysis in childhood stroke: report of 2 cases and review of the literature

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: No controlled, randomized trial has investigated whether intravenous, intra-arterial (IAT), or mechanical thrombolysis is beneficial in children with ischemic stroke. We report 2 children who underwent IAT for acute ischemic stroke and include them in a review about intravenous thrombolysis, IAT, and mechanical thrombolysis for childhood stroke. METHODS: We searched in MEDLINE and EMBASE for studies that reported on treatment of childhood stroke with intravenous thrombolysis, IAT, or mechanical thrombolysis in the presence of occlusion of the basilar artery, sphenoidal, or insular middle cerebral artery. To be included in this review, the following findings had to be reported: (1) stroke severity at presentation; (2) cerebral imaging findings before thrombolysis; (3) time to treatment; (4) dose of the thrombolytic agent; (5) pre- and postinterventional angiographic findings in IAT; and (6) outcome assessed at hospital discharge or within 12 months after thrombolysis. RESULTS: Adequate data were available in 17 children (including our 2 own cases) who underwent intravenous thrombolysis (n=6), IAT (n=10), or mechanical thrombolysis (n=1). No symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred, but 2 asymptomatic intracranial hemorrhages were present. Sixteen children (94%) survived, and 12 (71%) had a good outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0 or 1). CONCLUSIONS: The available data about thrombolysis in pediatric stroke are limited. They suggest that this treatment may be beneficial in children with ischemic stroke. Controlled, randomized trials are needed to determine whether thrombolysis is useful in childhood stroke.

Effectiveness of chlamydia screening: systematic review

BACKGROUND: Screening programmes are promoted to control transmission of and prevent female reproductive tract morbidity caused by genital chlamydia. The objective of this study was to examine the effectiveness of register-based and opportunistic chlamydia screening interventions. METHODS: We searched seven electronic databases (Cinahl, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, DARE, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO and SIGLE) without language restrictions from January 1990 to October 2007 and reference lists of retrieved articles to identify studies published before 1990. We included studies examining primary outcomes (pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, infertility, adverse pregnancy outcomes, neonatal infection, chlamydia prevalence) and harms of chlamydia screening in men and non-pregnant and pregnant women. We extracted data in duplicate and synthesized the data narratively or used random effects meta-analysis, where appropriate. RESULTS: We included six systematic reviews, five randomized trials, one non-randomized comparative study and one time trend study. Five reviews recommended screening of women at high risk of chlamydia. Two randomized trials found that register-based screening of women at high risk of chlamydia and of female and male high school students reduced the incidence of pelvic inflammatory disease in women at 1 year. Methodological inadequacies could have overestimated the observed benefits. One randomized trial showed that opportunistic screening in women undergoing surgical termination of pregnancy reduced post-abortal rates of pelvic inflammatory disease compared with no screening. We found no randomized trials showing a benefit of opportunistic screening in other populations, no trial examining the effects of more than one screening round and no trials examining the harms of chlamydia screening. CONCLUSION: There is an absence of evidence supporting opportunistic chlamydia screening in the general population younger than 25 years, the most commonly recommended approach. Equipoise remains, so high-quality randomized trials of multiple rounds of screening with biological outcome measures are still needed to determine the balance of benefits and harms of chlamydia screening.

Effects of ursodeoxycholic acid in combination with vitamin E on adipokines and apoptosis in patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Adipokines and hepatocellular apoptosis participate in the pathogenesis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). In a randomized trial ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) with vitamin E (VitE) improved serum aminotransferases and hepatic histology. The present work evaluates the effect of this combination on adipokines and hepatocellular apoptosis. METHODS: Circulating levels of adiponectin, resistin, leptin, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, retinol binding protein-4, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha were measured by enzyme-linked immunoassays at the beginning and after 2 years of treatment with either UDCA+VitE, UDCA+placebo (P) or P+P. Apoptosis was assessed by immunohistochemistry for activated caspase-3 and circulating levels of apoptosis-associated cytokeratin 18 fragments (M30). RESULTS: Levels of adiponectin increased in patients treated with UDCA+VitE, whereas they decreased in the two other groups (P<0.04) and correlated with the improvement of liver steatosis (P<0.04). M30 levels worsened in the P/P group and improved in the other two groups. They correlated with hepatocellular apoptosis (P<0.02) and steatosis (P<0.02) as well as negatively with adiponectin levels (P<0.04). CONCLUSIONS: UDCA+VitE improves not only aminotransferase levels and liver histology of patients with NASH, but also decreases hepatocellular apoptosis and restores circulating levels of adiponectin. These results suggest that the UDCA+VitE combination has metabolic effects in addition to its beneficial cytoprotective properties.

Treatment of acute renal failure in the intensive care unit: lower costs by intermittent dialysis than continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration

Intermittent and continuous renal replacement therapies (RRTs) are available for the treatment of acute renal failure (ARF) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Although at present there are no adequately powered survival studies, available data suggest that both methods are equal with respect to patient outcome. Therefore, cost comparison between techniques is important for selecting the modality. Expenditures were prospectively assessed as a secondary end point during a controlled, randomized trial comparing intermittent hemodialysis (IHD) with continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF). The outcome of the primary end points of this trial, that is, ICU and in-hospital mortality, has been previously published. One hundred twenty-five patients from a Swiss university hospital ICU were randomized either to CVVHDF or IHD. Out of these, 42 (CVVHDF) and 34 (IHD) were available for cost analysis. Patients' characteristics, delivered dialysis dose, duration of stay in the ICU or hospital, mortality rates, and recovery of renal function were not different between the two groups. Detailed 24-h time and material consumption protocols were available for 369 (CVVHDF) and 195 (IHD) treatment days. The mean daily duration of CVVHDF was 19.5 +/- 3.2 h/day, resulting in total expenditures of Euro 436 +/- 21 (21% for human resources and 79% for technical devices). For IHD (mean 3.0 +/- 0.4 h/treatment), the costs were lower (Euro 268 +/- 26), with a larger proportion for human resources (45%). Nursing time spent for CVVHDF was 113 +/- 50 min, and 198 +/- 63 min per IHD treatment. Total costs for RRT in ICU patients with ARF were lower when treated with IHD than with CVVHDF, and have to be taken into account for the selection of the method of RRT in ARF on the ICU.

The effects of thoracic epidurally administered drugs on urethral sphincter function in women: a pooled analysis

OBJECTIVES Thoracic epidural analgesia (TEA) has been shown to inhibit detrusor activity in patients undergoing open renal surgery, resulting in clinically relevant post-void residuals. However, the impact of different epidural drug mixtures on urethral sphincter function is not completely elucidated. DESIGN Pooled analysis of an open observational study and a double-blind randomized trial. SETTING Single tertiary centre. SUBJECTS Twenty-eight women without lower urinary tract symptoms and post-void residual <100 mL, who underwent open renal surgery with TEA. METHODS Pooling results in three groups with different epidural regimens (7 with bupivacaine 0.125%, 8 with bupivacaine 0.125% and fentanyl 2 μg/mL, and 13 with bupivacaine 0.1% plus fentanyl 2 μg/mL and epinephrine 2 μg/mL). All women underwent urethral pressure measurements before TEA and during TEA 2-3 days postoperatively. All patients received a TEA placed at the insertion site interspace T 8-9. RESULTS Maximum urethral closure pressure at rest decreased significantly during TEA with bupivacaine alone (median 70 cm H2 O [interquartile range 66-76] to 43 [43-65], P = 0.031) and with bupivacaine/fentanyl/epinephrine (75 cm H2 O [68-78] to 56 [52-75], P = 0.028), whereas with bupivacaine/fentanyl, no significant change could be detected (74 [51-88] vs 67 [46-70], P = 0.156). In all groups, functional profile length at rest was not influenced during TEA. CONCLUSION TEA with bupivacaine and the addition of fentanyl and epinephrine appears to decrease maximum urethral closure pressure at rest in women. The addition of fentanyl alone to bupivacaine may reduce this effect. Thus, the TEA effect on urethral sphincter function seems to depend on the drug mixture administered.

Curtailing the voices and the need for predictors

Comment on Transcranial magnetic stimulation of Wernicke's and Right homologous sites to curtail "voices": a randomized trial. [Biol Psychiatry. 2013]

Body weight, insulin resistance, and serum adipokine levels 2 years after 2 types of bariatric surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Bariatric surgery reverses obesity-related comorbidities, including type 2 diabetes mellitus. Several studies have already described differences in anthropometrics and body composition in patients undergoing Roux-en-Y gastric bypass compared with laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding, but the role of adipokines in the outcomes after the different types of surgery is not known. Differences in weight loss and reversal of insulin resistance exist between the 2 groups and correlate with changes in adipokines. METHODS: Fifteen severely obese women (mean body mass index [BMI]: 46.7 kg/m(2)) underwent 2 types of laparoscopic weight loss surgery (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass=10, adjustable gastric banding=5). Weight, waist and hip circumference, body composition, plasma metabolic markers, and lipids were measured at set intervals during a 24-month period after surgery. RESULTS: At 24 months, patients who underwent Roux-en-Y were overweight (BMI 29.7 kg/m(2)), whereas patients who underwent gastric banding remained obese (BMI 36.3 kg/m(2)). Patients who underwent Roux-en-Y lost significantly more fat mass than patients who underwent gastric banding (mean difference 16.8 kg, P<.05). Likewise, leptin levels were lower in the patients who underwent Roux-en-Y (P=.003), and levels correlated with weight loss, loss of fat mass, insulin levels, and Homeostasis Model of Assessment 2. Adiponectin correlated with insulin levels and Homeostasis Model of Assessment 2 (r=-0.653, P=.04 and r=-0.674, P=.032, respectively) in the patients who underwent Roux-en-Y at 24 months. CONCLUSION: After 2 years, weight loss and normalization of metabolic parameters were less pronounced in patients who underwent gastric banding compared with patients who underwent Roux-en-Y gastric bypass. Our findings require confirmation in a prospective randomized trial.

Postoperative renal function preservation with nonischemic femoral arterial cannulation for thoracoabdominal aortic repair.

BACKGROUND: Renal failure after thoracoabdominal aortic repair is a significant clinical problem. Distal aortic perfusion for organ and spinal cord protection requires cannulation of the left femoral artery. In 2006, we reported the finding that direct cannulation led to leg ischemia in some patients and was associated with increased renal failure. After this finding, we modified our perfusion technique to eliminate leg ischemia from cannulation. In this article, we present the effects of this change on postoperative renal function. METHODS: Between February 1991 and July 2008, we repaired 1464 thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms. Distal aortic perfusion was used in 1088, and these were studied. Median patient age was 68 years, and 378 (35%) were women. In September 2006, we began to adopt a sidearm femoral cannulation technique that provides distal aortic perfusion while maintaining downstream flow to the leg. This was used in 167 patients (15%). We measured the joint effects of preoperative glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and cannulation technique on the highest postoperative creatinine level, postoperative renal failure, and death. Analysis was by multiple linear or logistic regression with interaction. RESULTS: The preoperative GFR was the strongest predictor of postoperative renal dysfunction and death. No significant main effects of sidearm cannulation were noted. For peak creatinine level and postoperative renal failure, however, strong interactions between preoperative GFR and sidearm cannulation were present, resulting in reductions of postoperative renal complications of 15% to 20% when GFR was <60 mL>/min/1.73 m(2). For normal GFR, the effect was negated or even reversed at very high levels of GFR. Mortality, although not significantly affected by sidearm cannulation, showed a similar trend to the renal outcomes. CONCLUSION: Use of sidearm cannulation is associated with a clinically important and highly statistically significant reduction in postoperative renal complications in patients with a low GFR. Reduced renal effect of skeletal muscle ischemia is the proposed mechanism. Effects among patients with good preoperative renal function are less clear. A randomized trial is needed.

Ultrasound feedback and motivational interviewing targeting smoking cessation in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette smoking during pregnancy is associated with poor maternal and child health outcomes. Effective interventions to increase smoking cessation rates are needed particularly for pregnant women unable to quit in their first trimester. Real-time ultrasound feedback focused on potential effects of smoking on the fetus may be an effective treatment adjunct, improving smoking outcomes. METHODS: A prospective randomized trial was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of a smoking cessation intervention consisting of personalized feedback during ultrasound plus motivational interviewing-based counseling sessions. Pregnant smokers (N = 360) between 16 and 26 weeks of gestation were randomly assigned to one of three groups: Best Practice (BP) only, Best Practice plus ultrasound feedback (BP+US), or Motivational Interviewing-based counseling plus ultrasound feedback (MI+US). Assessments were conducted at baseline and end of pregnancy (EOP). RESULTS: Analyses of cotinine-verified self-reported smoking status at EOP indicated that 10.8% of the BP group was not smoking at EOP; 14.2% in the BP+US condition and 18.3% who received MI+US were abstinent, but differences were not statistically significant. Intervention effects were found conditional upon level of baseline smoking, however. Nearly 34% of light smokers (< or =10 cigarettes/day) in the MI+US condition were abstinent at EOP, followed by 25.8% and 15.6% in the BP+US and BP conditions, respectively. Heavy smokers (>10 cigarettes/day) were notably unaffected by the intervention. DISCUSSION: Future research should confirm benefit of motivational interviewing plus ultrasound feedback for pregnant light smokers and explore mechanisms of action. Innovative interventions for pregnant women smoking at high levels are sorely needed.

Volumetric and anatomical MRI for hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy: relationship to hypothermia therapy and neurosensory impairments.

OBJECTIVE: To relate volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings to hypothermia therapy and neurosensory impairments. STUDY DESIGN: Newborns > or =36 weeks' gestation with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy who participated in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development hypothermia randomized trial at our center were eligible. We determined the relationship between hypothermia treatment and usual care (control) to absolute and relative cerebral tissue volumes. Furthermore, we correlated brain volumes with death or neurosensory impairments at 18 to 22 months. RESULT: Both treatment groups were comparable before randomization. Total brain tissue volumes did not differ in relation to treatment assignment. However, relative volumes of subcortical white matter were significantly larger in hypothermia-treated than control infants. Furthermore, relative total brain volumes correlated significantly with death or neurosensory impairments. Relative volumes of the cortical gray and subcortical white matter also correlated significantly with Bayley Scales psychomotor development index. CONCLUSION: Selected volumetric MRI findings correlated with hypothermia therapy and neurosensory impairments. Larger studies using MRI brain volumes as a secondary outcome measure are needed.

Design and evaluation of the parent education component of a comprehensive violence prevention project in middle schools

Low parental monitoring is related to youth risk behaviors such as delinquency and aggression. The purpose of this dissertation was to describe the development and evaluation of a parent education intervention to increase parental monitoring in Hispanic parents of middle school children.^ The first study described the process of intervention mapping as used to develop Padres Trabajando por la Paz, a newsletter intervention for parents. Using theory, empirical literature, and information from the target population, performance objectives and determinants for monitoring were defined. Learning objectives were specified and a staged social-cognitive approach was used to develop methods and strategies delivered through newsletters.^ The second study examined the outcomes of a randomized trial of the newsletter intervention. Outcome measures consisted of a general measure of monitoring, parent and child reports of monitoring behaviors targeted by the intervention, and psychosocial determinants of monitoring (self-efficacy, norms, outcome expectancies, knowledge, and beliefs). Seventy-seven parents completed the randomized trial, half of which received four newsletters over an eight-week period. Results revealed a significant interaction effect for baseline and treatment for parent's reports of norms for monitoring (p =.009). Parents in the experimental condition who scored low at baseline reported increased norms for monitoring at follow-up. A significant interaction effect for child reports of parental monitoring behaviors (p =.04) reflected an small increase across baseline levels in the experimental condition and decreases for the control condition at higher baseline scores. Both groups of parents reported increased levels of monitoring at follow-up. No other outcome measures varied significantly by condition.^ The third study examined the relationship between the psychosocial determinants of parental monitoring and parental monitoring behaviors in the study population. Weak evidence for a relationship between outcome expectancies and parental monitoring behaviors suggests further research in the area utilizing stronger empirical models such as longitudinal design and structural equation modeling.^ The low-cost, minimal newsletter intervention showed promise for changing norms among Hispanic parents for parental monitoring. In light of the importance of parental monitoring as a protective factor for youth health risk behaviors, more research needs to be done to develop and evaluate interventions to increase parental monitoring. ^