Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Laws of large numbers for non-additive probabilities

We apply the concept of exchangeable random variables to the case of non-additive robability distributions exhibiting ncertainty aversion, and in the lass generated bya convex core convex non-additive probabilities, ith a convex core). We are able to rove two versions of the law of arge numbers (de Finetti's heorems). By making use of two efinitions. of independence we rove two versions of the strong law f large numbers. It turns out that e cannot assure the convergence of he sample averages to a constant. e then modal the case there is a true" probability distribution ehind the successive realizations of the uncertain random variable. In this case convergence occurs. This result is important because it renders true the intuition that it is possible "to learn" the "true" additive distribution behind an uncertain event if one repeatedly observes it (a sufficiently large number of times). We also provide a conjecture regarding the "Iearning" (or updating) process above, and prove a partia I result for the case of Dempster-Shafer updating rule and binomial trials.

Phylogenetic structure of Guinea-Bissau ethnic groups for mitochondrial DNA and Y chromosome genetic systems

The maternal and paternal genetic profile of Guineans is markedly sub-Saharan West African, with the majority of lineages belonging to L0-L3 mtDNA sub-clusters and E3a-M2 and E1-M33 Y chromosome haplogroups. Despite the sociocultural differences among Guinea-Bissau ethnic groups,marked by the supposedly strict admixture barriers, their genetic pool remains largely common. Their extant variation coalesces at distinct timeframes, from the initial occupation of the area to later inputs of people. Signs of recent expansion in mtDNA haplogroups L2a-L2c and NRY E3a-M2 suggest population growth in the equatorial western fringe, possibly supported by an early local agricultural centre, and to which the Mandenka and the Balanta people may relate. Non-West African signatures are traceable in less frequent extant haplogroups, fitting well with the linguistic and historical evidence regarding particular ethnic groups: the Papel and Felupe-Djola people retain traces of their putative East African relatives; U6 and M1b among Guinea-Bissau Bak-speakers indicate partial diffusion to Sahel of North African lineages; U5b1b lineages in Fulbe and Papel represent a link to North African Berbers, emphasizing the great importance of post-glacial expansions; exact matches of R1b-P25 and E3b1-M78 with Europeans likely trace back to the times of the slave trade.

The bacterial chromosome segregation protein Spo0J spreads along DNA from parS nucleation sites

Regulation of chromosome inheritance is essential to ensure proper transmission of genetic information. To accomplish accurate genome segregation, cells organize their chromosomes and actively separate them prior to cytokinesis. In Bacillus subtilis the Spo0J protein is required for accurate chromosome segregation and it regulates the developmental switch from vegetative growth to sporulation. Spo0J is a DNA-binding protein that recognizes at least eight identified parS sites located near the origin of replication. As judged by fluorescence microscopy, Spo0J forms discrete foci associated with the oriC region of the chromosome throughout the cell cycle. In an attempt to determine the mechanisms utilized by Spo0J to facilitate productive chromosome segregation, we have investigated the DNA binding activity of Spo0J. In vivo we find Spo0J associates with several kilobases of DNA flanking its specific binding sites (parS) through a parS-dependent nucleation event that promotes lateral spreading of Spo0J along the chromosome. Using purified components we find that Spo0J has the ability to coat non-specific DNA substrates. These 'Spo0J domains' provide large structures near oriC that could potentially demark, organize or localize the origin region of the chromosome.

Cytogenetic analysis of the neotropical spider Nephilengys cruentata (Araneomorphae, tetragnathidae): standard staining, NORs, C-bands and base-specific fluorochromes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Development of Y-chromosome-Specific SCAR Markers Conserved in Taurine, Zebu and Bubaline Cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison of microbial numbers in soils by using various culture media and temperatures

The influence of different media and incubation temperatures on the quantification of microbial populations in sorghum, eucalyptus and forest soils was evaluated. Microbial growth was compared by using complex (tryptone soybean agar, TSA, casein-starch, CS, and Martin) and saline (Thorton, M3, Czapeck) media and incubation temperatures of 25 and 30° C. Higher numbers of total bacterial. and fungal colony-forming units (CFU) were observed in sorghum soils, and of spore-forming and Gram-negative bacteria in forest soils than other soils. Actinomycetes counts were highest in forest soil when using CS medium at 30° C and in sorghum soil at 25° C in M3 medium. Microorganism counts were dependent on the media and incubation temperatures. The counts at temperatures of 30° C were significantly higher than at 25° C. Microbial quantification was best when using TSA medium for total. and spore-forming bacteria, Thorton for Gram-negative bacteria, M3 for actinomycetes, and Martin for fungi. © 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Chromosome polymorphism in the Brazilian dwarf brocket deer, Mazama nana (Mammalia, Cervidae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Citogenética do javali em criatórios comerciais das regiões Sul e Sudeste do Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mechanism of anticlastogenicity of Agaricus blazei Murill mushroom organic extracts in wild type CHO (K-1) and repair deficient (xrs5) cells by chromosome aberration and sister chromatid exchange assays

Agaricus blazei Murill is a medicinal mushroom native to Brazil. The present work assessed the clastogenic and anticlastogenic potential of organic extracts (ethanol and chloroform/methanol) from the lineage AB97/11 in chinese hamster CHO-K-1 (wild type) and CHO-xrs5 (repair deficient) cells using the chromosome aberration (CA) and sister chromatid exchange (SCE) assays. In these experimental conditions were observed: (a) anticlastogenic effect at concentrations of 0.06 and 0.09% of the EtOH extract and at the 0.03 and 0.06% concentrations of the C/MetOH extract in CHO-K-1; (b) absence of protector effect on CHO-xrs5 cells; and (c) absence of protector effect in the SCE assay. These results indicate that organic extracts of A. blazei lineage AB97/11 present bio-antimutagenic type protective activity. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Origin and differentiation of a sex chromosome system in Parodon hilarii (Pisces, Parodontidae). Satellite DNA, G- and C-banding

A satellite DNA sequence of Parodon hilarii ( named pPh2004) was isolated, cloned and sequenced. This satellite DNA is composed of 200 bp, 60% AT rich. In situ hybridization ( FISH) results revealed that the satellite DNA pPh2004 is located in the terminal regions of several chromosomes, forming highly evident blocks in some and punctual marks in others. The comparison between the FISH and C-banding results showed that the location of this satellite DNA coincides with that of most terminal heterochromatins. However, some regions are only marked by FISH whereas other regions are only marked by C-banding. The possible existence of more than one satellite DNA family could explain these partial differences. The in situ hybridization with the satellite DNA and the G- and C-bandings confirmed the presence of a sex chromosome system of the ZZ/ZW type in P. hilarii, as well as the correct identification of the Z chromosome in the karyotype. This chromosome displays a segment of terminal heterochromatin in the long arm, similar to the segment observed in the short arm of the W chromosome, also showing a G- banding pattern similar to that of the short arm and part of the long arm of the W chromosome. A hypothesis on the origin of the W chromosome from an ancestral chromosome similar to the Z chromosome is presented.

Structural and functional evidence that a B chromosome in the characid fish Astyanax scabripinnis is an isochromosome

Astyanax scabripinnis possesses a widespread polymorphism for metacentric B chromosomes as large as the largest chromosome pair in the A complement. on the basis of C-banding pattern, it was hypothesized that these B chromosomes are isochromosomes that have arisen by means of centromere misdivision and chromatid nondisjunction. In the present paper we test this hypothesis by analysing (i) the localization of a repetitive DNA sequence on both B chromosome arms, and (ii) synaptonemal complex formation, in order to test the functional homology of both arms. Genomic DNA digested with KpnI and analysed by gel electrophoresis showed fragments in a ladder-like pattern typical of tandemly repetitive DNA. These fragments were cloned and their tandem organization in the genome was confirmed. A 51-bp long consensus sequence, which was AT-rich (59%) and contained a variable region and two imperfect reverse sequences, was obtained. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) localized this repetitive DNA into noncentromeric constitutive heterochromatin which encompasses the terminal region of some acrocentric chromosomes, the NOR region, and interstitial polymorphic heterochromatin in chromosome 24. Most remarkably, tandem repeats were almost symmetrically placed in the two arms of the B chromosome, with the exception of two additional small clusters proximally located on the slightly longer arm. Synaptonemal complex (SC) analysis showed 26 completely paired SCs in males with 1B. The ring configuration of the B univalent persisting until metaphase I suggests that the two arms formed chiasmata. All these data provided strong support for the hypothesis that the B chromosome is an isochromosome.