Predicting effects of monotony on driver’s vigilance

Monotony has been identified as a contributing factor to road crashes. Drivers’ ability to react to unpredictable events deteriorates when exposed to highly predictable and uneventful driving tasks, such as driving on Australian rural roads, many of which are monotonous by nature. Highway design in particular attempts to reduce the driver’s task to a merely lane-keeping one. Such a task provides little stimulation and is monotonous, thus affecting the driver’s attention which is no longer directed towards the road. Inattention contributes to crashes, especially for professional drivers. Monotony has been studied mainly from the endogenous perspective (for instance through sleep deprivation) without taking into account the influence of the task itself (repetitiveness) or the surrounding environment. The aim and novelty of this thesis is to develop a methodology (mathematical framework) able to predict driver lapses of vigilance under monotonous environments in real time, using endogenous and exogenous data collected from the driver, the vehicle and the environment. Existing approaches have tended to neglect the specificity of task monotony, leaving the question of the existence of a “monotonous state” unanswered. Furthermore the issue of detecting vigilance decrement before it occurs (predictions) has not been investigated in the literature, let alone in real time. A multidisciplinary approach is necessary to explain how vigilance evolves in monotonous conditions. Such an approach needs to draw on psychology, physiology, road safety, computer science and mathematics. The systemic approach proposed in this study is unique with its predictive dimension and allows us to define, in real time, the impacts of monotony on the driver’s ability to drive. Such methodology is based on mathematical models integrating data available in vehicles to the vigilance state of the driver during a monotonous driving task in various environments. The model integrates different data measuring driver’s endogenous and exogenous factors (related to the driver, the vehicle and the surrounding environment). Electroencephalography (EEG) is used to measure driver vigilance since it has been shown to be the most reliable and real time methodology to assess vigilance level. There are a variety of mathematical models suitable to provide a framework for predictions however, to find the most accurate model, a collection of mathematical models were trained in this thesis and the most reliable was found. The methodology developed in this research is first applied to a theoretically sound measure of sustained attention called Sustained Attention Response to Task (SART) as adapted by Michael (2010), Michael and Meuter (2006, 2007). This experiment induced impairments due to monotony during a vigilance task. Analyses performed in this thesis confirm and extend findings from Michael (2010) that monotony leads to an important vigilance impairment independent of fatigue. This thesis is also the first to show that monotony changes the dynamics of vigilance evolution and tends to create a “monotonous state” characterised by reduced vigilance. Personality traits such as being a low sensation seeker can mitigate this vigilance decrement. It is also evident that lapses in vigilance can be predicted accurately with Bayesian modelling and Neural Networks. This framework was then applied to the driving task by designing a simulated monotonous driving task. The design of such task requires multidisciplinary knowledge and involved psychologist Rebecca Michael. Monotony was varied through both the road design and the road environment variables. This experiment demonstrated that road monotony can lead to driving impairment. Particularly monotonous road scenery was shown to have the most impact compared to monotonous road design. Next, this study identified a variety of surrogate measures that are correlated with vigilance levels obtained from the EEG. Such vigilance states can be predicted with these surrogate measures. This means that vigilance decrement can be detected in a car without the use of an EEG device. Amongst the different mathematical models tested in this thesis, only Neural Networks predicted the vigilance levels accurately. The results of both these experiments provide valuable information about the methodology to predict vigilance decrement. Such an issue is quite complex and requires modelling that can adapt to highly inter-individual differences. Only Neural Networks proved accurate in both studies, suggesting that these models are the most likely to be accurate when used on real roads or for further research on vigilance modelling. This research provides a better understanding of the driving task under monotonous conditions. Results demonstrate that mathematical modelling can be used to determine the driver’s vigilance state when driving using surrogate measures identified during this study. This research has opened up avenues for future research and could result in the development of an in-vehicle device predicting driver vigilance decrement. Such a device could contribute to a reduction in crashes and therefore improve road safety.

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Estimation of travel time on urban networks with midlink sources and sinks

This paper presents a methodology for estimation of average travel time on signalized urban networks by integrating cumulative plots and probe data. This integration aims to reduce the relative deviations in the cumulative plots due to midlink sources and sinks. During undersaturated traffic conditions, the concept of a virtual probe is introduced, and therefore, accurate travel time can be obtained when a real probe is unavailable. For oversaturated traffic conditions, only one probe per travel time estimation interval—360 s or 3% of vehicles traversing the link as a probe—has the potential to provide accurate travel time.

Voltage unbalance reduction in low voltage distribution networks with rooftop PVs

Voltage Unbalance (VU) is a power quality issue arising within the low voltage residential distribution networks due to the random location and rating of single-phase rooftop photovoltaic cells (PVs). In this paper, an analysis has been carried out to investigate how PV installations, their random location and power generation capacity can cause an increase in VU. Several efficient practical methods are discussed for VU reduction. Based on this analysis, it has been shown that the installation of a DSTATCOM can reduce VU. In this paper, the best possible location for DSTATCOM and its efficient control method to reduce VU will be presented. The results are verified through PSCAD/EMTDC and Monte Carlo simulations.

Feasibility of "subjective" engineering assessments of road safety improvements : Bayesian analysis development

Regional safety program managers face a daunting challenge in the attempt to reduce deaths, injuries, and economic losses that result from motor vehicle crashes. This difficult mission is complicated by the combination of a large perceived need, small budget, and uncertainty about how effective each proposed countermeasure would be if implemented. A manager can turn to the research record for insight, but the measured effect of a single countermeasure often varies widely from study to study and across jurisdictions. The challenge of converting widespread and conflicting research results into a regionally meaningful conclusion can be addressed by incorporating "subjective" information into a Bayesian analysis framework. Engineering evaluations of crashes provide the subjective input on countermeasure effectiveness in the proposed Bayesian analysis framework. Empirical Bayes approaches are widely used in before-and-after studies and "hot-spot" identification; however, in these cases, the prior information was typically obtained from the data (empirically), not subjective sources. The power and advantages of Bayesian methods for assessing countermeasure effectiveness are presented. Also, an engineering evaluation approach developed at the Georgia Institute of Technology is described. Results are presented from an experiment conducted to assess the repeatability and objectivity of subjective engineering evaluations. In particular, the focus is on the importance, methodology, and feasibility of the subjective engineering evaluation for assessing countermeasures.

The application of neural networks to induction machine control

Neural networks (NNs) are discussed in connection with their possible use in induction machine drives. The mathematical model of the NN as well as a commonly used learning algorithm is presented. Possible applications of NNs to induction machine control are discussed. A simulation of an NN successfully identifying the nonlinear multivariable model of an induction-machine stator transfer function is presented. Previously published applications are discussed, and some possible future applications are proposed.

Identification and control of induction machines using artificial neural networks

The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to identify and control induction machines is proposed. Two systems are presented: a system to adaptively control the stator currents via identification of the electrical dynamics, and a system to adaptively control the rotor speed via identification of the mechanical and current-fed system dynamics. Both systems are inherently adaptive as well as self-commissioning. The current controller is a completely general nonlinear controller which can be used together with any drive algorithm. Various advantages of these control schemes over conventional schemes are cited, and the combined speed and current control scheme is compared with the standard vector control scheme

Identification and control of induction machines using artificial neural networks

This paper proposes the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to identify and control an induction machine. Two systems are presented: a system to adaptively control the stator currents via identification of the electrical dynamics; and a system to adaptively control the rotor speed via identification of the mechanical and current-fed system dynamics. Various advantages of these control schemes over other conventional schemes are cited and the performance of the combined speed and current control scheme is compared with that of the standard vector control scheme

Assessment of the suitability of public mobile data networks for aircraft telemetry and control purposes

This paper provides a review of the state of the art relevant work on the use of public mobile data networks for aircraft telemetry and control proposes. Moreover, it describes the characterisation for airborne uses of the public mobile data communication systems known broadly as 3G. The motivation for this study was the explore how this mature public communication systems could be used for aviation purposes. An experimental system was fitted to a light aircraft to record communication latency, line speed, RF level, packet loss and cell tower identifier. Communications was established using internet protocols and connection was made to a local server. The aircraft was flown in both remote and populous areas at altitudes up to 8500 ft in a region located in South East Queensland, Australia. Results show that the average airborne RF levels are better than those on the ground by 21% and in the order of - 77dbm. Latencies were in the order of 500ms (1/2 the latency of Iridium), an average download speed of 0.48Mb/s, average uplink speed of 0.85Mb/s, a packet of information loss of 6.5%. The maximum communication range was also observed to be 70km from a single cell station. The paper also describes possible limitations and utility of using such communications architecture for both manned and unmanned aircraft systems.

Communication patterns within social networks : a case study of Australian women

Based on the perception that “individual bonds to one another is the essence of society” (Fischer, 1982a, p. 2), this paper examines contemporary networks of friends: friendworks, of adult women in an Australian sea change community. Communication patterns are examined drawing on findings from a case study of 26 women aged 35-76 years. Among the case study participants, many have undertaken a ‘sea change’ as adults, which in most cases has led to a significant reconstruction of their friendworks. Location and lifestyle are identified as impacting factors on communication patterns with friends; face-to-face interactions are by far the most frequent and preferred method of communication among the participants. The landline telephone and internet are the main communication methods used to maintain friendships with distant loved ones, while the mobile phone is reported as the communication method employed the least. The infrequency of mobile phone use can be attributed to cost issues, highlighting a discrepancy between these women’s social and communication needs and the current Australian mobile phone policy.

Remembering beliefs

Optimal decision-making requires us to accurately pinpoint the basis of our thoughts, e.g. whether they originate from our memory or our imagination. This paper argues that the phenomenal qualities of our subjective experience provide permissible evidence to revise beliefs, particularly as it pertains to memory. I look to the source monitoring literature to reconcile circumstances where mnemic beliefs and mnemic qualia conflict. By separating the experience of remembering from biological facts of memory, unusual cases make sense, such as memory qualia without memory (e.g. déjà vu, false memories) or a failure to have memory qualia with memory (e.g. functional amnesia, unintentional plagiarism). I argue that a pragmatic, probabilistic approach to belief revision is a way to rationally incorporate information from conscious experience, whilst acknowledging its inherent difficulties as an epistemic source. I conclude with a Bayesian defense of source monitoring based on C.I. Lewis’ coherence argument for memorial knowledge.

Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Camera calibration in wireless multimedia sensor networks

Wireless Multi-media Sensor Networks (WMSNs) have become increasingly popular in recent years, driven in part by the increasing commoditization of small, low-cost CMOS sensors. As such, the challenge of automatically calibrating these types of cameras nodes has become an important research problem, especially for the case when a large quantity of these type of devices are deployed. This paper presents a method for automatically calibrating a wireless camera node with the ability to rotate around one axis. The method involves capturing images as the camera is rotated and computing the homographies between the images. The camera parameters, including focal length, principal point and the angle and axis of rotation can then recovered from two or more homographies. The homography computation algorithm is designed to deal with the limited resources of the wireless sensor and to minimize energy con- sumption. In this paper, a modified RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is proposed to effectively increase the efficiency and reliability of the calibration procedure.