The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific

Phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific were investigated for 2001–2009, based on satellite ocean colour data and the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We estimated the timing of the spring bloom based on the cumulative sum satellite chlorophyll adata, and found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-related interannual SST anomaly in spring significantly affected phytoplankton phenology. The bloom occurred either later or earlier in years of positive or negative PDO (indicating cold and warm conditions, respectively). Phytoplankton composition in the early summer varied depending on the magnitude of seasonal SST increases, rather than the SST value itself. Interannual variations in diatom abundance and the relative abundance of non-diatoms were positively correlated with SST increases for March–April and May–July, respectively, suggesting that mixed layer environmental factors, such as light availability and nutrient stoichiometry, determine shifts in phytoplankton community structure. Our study emphasised the importance of the interannual variation in climate-induced warm–cool cycles as one of the key mechanisms linking climatic forcing and lower trophic level ecosystems.

Marine plankton phenology and life history in a changing climate: current research and future directions

Increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. The extent to which the range of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. Here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. We suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond Calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the Lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes.

Covariance among North Sea ecosystem state indicators during the past 50 years - contrasts between coastal and open waters

Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958–2003, those of nutrients start in 1980. In both regions, the period from 1989 to 2001 identified in principal component 1 had warmer surface waters, higher Atlantic inflow and stronger winds, than the periods before or after. However, it was preceded by a regime shift in both open (PC2) and coastal (PC3) waters during 1977 towards more hours of sunlight and higher water temperature, which lasted until 1997. The relative influence of nutrient availability and climatic forcing differed between open and coastal North Sea regions. Inter-annual variability in phytoplankton dynamics of the open North Sea was primarily regulated by climatic forcing, specifically by sea surface temperature, Atlantic inflow and co-varying wind stress and NAO. Coastal phytoplankton variability, however, was regulated by insolation and sea surface temperature, as well as Si availability, but not by N or P. Regime shifts in principal components of hydrographic and climatic variables (explaining 55 and 61% of the variance in coastal and open water variables) were detected using Rodionov's sequential t-test. These shifts in hydroclimatic variables which occurred around 1977, 1989, 1997 and 2001, were synchronized in open and coastal waters, and were tracked by open water chlorophyll and copepods, but not by coastal plankton. North–central–south or open-coastal spatial breakdowns of the North Sea explained similar amounts of variability in most ecosystem indicators with the exception of diatom abundance and chlorophyll concentration, which were clearly better explained using the open-coastal configuration.

Recruitment of lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus in relation to density dependence and zooplankton composition

Recent recruitment failure of lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus, a key prey fish in the North Sea, followed by several years of low spawning stock biomass, prompted us to investigate factors influencing the recruitment of this species. We tested 2 hypotheses that relate to ecological mechanisms of recruitment regulation in lesser sandeel: (1) a positive spawning stock–recruitment relationship is decoupled in years associated with high abundances of age-1 sandeels and (2) the survival success of early larvae depends specifically on the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus and not C. helgolandicus. The findings of the present study supported both hypotheses and resulted in a multiple linear recruitment model with pronounced predictive capabilities. The model includes interactions between age-1 abundance and spawning stock biomass, plus the effect of C. finmarchicus abundance, and it explained around 65% of the inter-annual variation in recruitment in contrast to only 12% by a traditional Ricker curve. We argue that early egg production in C. finmarchicus supports the survival of larvae, and that climate-generated shifts in the Calanus species composition lead to a mismatch in timing between food availability and the early life history of lesser sandeels.

Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

An unusually large phytoplankton spring bloom drives rapid changes in benthic diversity and ecosystem function

In 2012, the Western English Channel experienced an unusually large and long-lived phytoplankton spring bloom. When compared with data from the past 20 years, average phytoplankton biomass at Station L4 (part of the Western Channel Observatory) was approximately 3× greater and lasted 50% longer than any previous year. Regular (mostly weekly) box core samples were collected from this site before, during and after the bloom to determine its impact on macrofaunal abundance, diversity, biomass, community structure and function. The spring bloom of 2012 was shown to support a large and rapid response in the majority of benthic taxa and functional groups. However, key differences in the precise nature of this response, as well as in its timing, was observed between different macrofauna feeding groups. Deposit feeders responded almost instantly at the start of the bloom, primarily thorough an increase in abundance. Suspension feeders and opportunistic/predatory/carnivorous taxa responded slightly more slowly and primarily with an increase in biomass. At the end of the bloom a rapid decline in macrobenthic abundance, diversity and biomass closely followed the decline in phytoplankton biomass. With suspension feeders showing evidence of this decline a few weeks before deposit feeders, it was concluded that this collapse in benthic communities was driven primarily by food availability and competition. However, it is possible that environmental hypoxia and the presence of toxic benthic cyanobacteria could also have contributed to this decline. This study shows evidence for strong benthic–pelagic coupling at L4; a shallow (50 m), coastal, fine-sand habitat. It also demonstrates that in such habitats, it is not just planktonic organisms that demonstrate clear community phenology. Different functional groups within the benthic assemblage will respond to the spring bloom in specific manner, with implications for key ecosystem functions and processes, such as secondary production and bioturbation. Only by taking integrated benthic and pelagic observations over such fine temporal scales (weekly) was the current study able to identify the intimate structure of the benthic response. Similar studies from other habitats and under different bloom conditions are urgently needed to fully appreciate the strength of benthic–pelagic coupling in shallow coastal environments.

Biodegradation and Rhodococcus--masters of catabolic versatility.

The genus Rhodococcus is a very diverse group of bacteria that possesses the ability to degrade a large number of organic compounds, including some of the most difficult compounds with regard to recalcitrance and toxicity. They achieve this through their capacity to acquire a remarkable range of diverse catabolic genes and their robust cellular physiology. Rhodococcus appear to have adopted a strategy of hyperrecombination associated with a large genome. Notably, they harbour large linear plasmids that contribute to their catabolic diversity by acting as 'mass storage' for a large number of catabolic genes. In addition, there is increasing evidence that multiple pathways and gene homologues are present that further increase the catabolic versatility and efficiency of Rhodococcus.

Optimal Body Size and Energy Expenditure during Winter: Why are voles smaller in declining populations?

Winter is energetically challenging for small herbivores because of greater energy requirements for thermogenesis at a time when little energy is available. We formulated a model predicting optimal wintering body size, accounting for the scaling of both energy expenditure and assimilation to body size, and the trade-off between survival benefits of a large size and avoiding survival costs of foraging. The model predicts that if the energy cost of maintaining a given body mass differs between environments, animals should be smaller in the more demanding environments, and there should be a negative correlation between body mass and daily energy expenditure (DEE) across environments. In contrast, if animals adjust their energy intake according to variation in survival costs of foraging, there should be a positive correlation between body mass and DEE. Decreasing temperature always increases equilibrium DEE, but optimal body mass may either increase or decrease in colder climates depending on the exact effects of temperature on mass-specific survival and energy demands. Measuring DEE with doubly labeled water on wintering Microtus agrestis at four field sites, we found that DEE was highest at the sites where voles were smallest despite a positive correlation between DEE and body mass within sites. This suggests that variation in wintering body mass between sites was due to variation in food quality/availability and not adjustments in foraging activity to varying risks of predation.

Marine micro and macro algal species as biosorbents for heavy metals

This paper reviews some practical aspects of the application of algal biomass for the biosorption of heavy metals from wastewater. The ability of different algal species to remove metals varies with algal group and morphology, with the speciation of specific metals and their competition with others in wastewater, and with environmental or process factors. The scattered literature on the uptake of heavy metals by both living and dead algal biomass - both macroalgae and immobilized microalgae - has been reviewed, and the uptake capacity and efficiency of different species, as well as what is known about the mechanisms of biosorption, are presented. Data on metal uptake have commonly been fitted to equilibrium models, such as the Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models, and the parameters of these models permit the uptake capacity of different algal species under different process conditions to be compared. Higher uptake capacities have been found for brown algae than for red and green algae. Kelps and fucoids are the most important groups of algae used for biosorption of heavy metals, probably because of their abundant cell wall polysacchrides and extracellular polymers. Another important practical aspect is the possibility of re-using algal biomass in several adsorption/desorption cycles (up to 10 have been used with Sargassum spp), and the influence of morphology and environmental conditions on the re-usability of algal tissue is also considered.

Phenotypic diversity amongst strains of Pleurotus sajor-caju: implications for cultivation in and environments

In arid regions, biodiversity and biomass are limited by water availability, and this problem has been compounded by desertification associated with global climate change. The saprotrophic macrofungi that are indigenous to hot subtropical and tropical regions, such as Pleurotus spp., can play key roles in water sequestration, nutrient cycling, human nutrition, and bioremediation of waste materials. We studied 15 strains of Pleurotus sajor-caju, a widespread and phenotypically-diverse species, to establish variability in growth response and primordium development over a range of stress parameters: osmotic potential (-0.5 to -5 MPa), temperature (5-40 degrees C) and pH (2-12). The initiation of primordia precedes basidiome production and therefore represents a key stage in bioremediation strategies and fungi-driven nutrient cycles. Primordia were produced at low pH (4-6), at suboptimal growth temperatures (<or =25 degrees C), and under moderate water stress (-0.5 to -3.5 MPa). Although the growth windows for different strains were similar, their maximum growth rates and the optimum conditions for growth varied. We discuss the phenotypic diversity of Pleurotus strains and discuss their potential for cultivation, bioremediation and ecological regeneration.

Binding of serum albumin to the anthelmintic drugs albendazole, triclabendazole and their sulphoxides

The binding of drugs to plasma proteins – especially serum albumin – is an important factor in controlling the availability and distribution of these drugs. In this study we have investigated the binding of two drugs commonly used to treat liver fluke infections, albendazole (ABZ) and triclabendazole (TCBZ), and their sulphoxide metabolites to bovine serum albumin (BSA). Both ABZ and TCBZ caused shifts in the mobility of BSA in native gel electrophoresis. No such changes were observed with the sulphoxides under identical conditions. The drugs, and their sulphoxides, caused quenching of the intrinsic tryptophan fluorescence of BSA, indicating association between the drugs and this protein. Quantification of this quenching suggested a 5–10-fold reduction in affinity of the sulphoxides compared to the parent compounds. These results are discussed in respect to previous work on the pharmacodynamics of these fasciolicides and will inform the design of novel anthelmintics.

Data mining approach identifies research priorities and data requirements for resolving the red algal tree of life

Background. The assembly of the tree of life has seen significant progress in recent years but algae and protists have been largely overlooked in this effort. Many groups of algae and protists have ancient roots and it is unclear how much data will be required to resolve their phylogenetic relationships for incorporation in the tree of life. The red algae, a group of primary photosynthetic eukaryotes of more than a billion years old, provide the earliest fossil evidence for eukaryotic multicellularity and sexual reproduction. Despite this evolutionary significance, their phylogenetic relationships are understudied. This study aims to infer a comprehensive red algal tree of life at the family level from a supermatrix containing data mined from GenBank. We aim to locate remaining regions of low support in the topology, evaluate their causes and estimate the amount of data required to resolve them. Results. Phylogenetic analysis of a supermatrix of 14 loci and 98 red algal families yielded the most complete red algal tree of life to date. Visualization of statistical support showed the presence of five poorly supported regions. Causes for low support were identified with statistics about the age of the region, data availability and node density, showing that poor support has different origins in different parts of the tree. Parametric simulation experiments yielded optimistic estimates of how much data will be needed to resolve the poorly supported regions (ca. 103 to ca. 104 nucleotides for the different regions). Nonparametric simulations gave a markedly more pessimistic image, some regions requiring more than 2.8 105 nucleotides or not achieving the desired level of support at all. The discrepancies between parametric and nonparametric simulations are discussed in light of our dataset and known attributes of both approaches. Conclusions. Our study takes the red algae one step closer to meaningful inclusion in the tree of life. In addition to the recovery of stable relationships, the recognition of five regions in need of further study is a significant outcome of this work. Based on our analyses of current availability and future requirements of data, we make clear recommendations for forthcoming research.

Technological regimes, Schumpeterian patterns of innovation and firm-level productivity growth

The article investigates the relationships between technological regimes and firm-level productivity performance, and it explores how such a relationship differs in different Schumpeterian patterns of innovation. The analysis makes use of a rich dataset containing data on innovation and other economic characteristics of a large representative sample of Norwegian firms in manufacturing and service industries for the period 1998–2004. First, we decompose TFP growth into technical progress and efficiency changes by means of data envelopment analysis. We then estimate an empirical model that relates these two productivity components to the characteristics of technological regimes and a set of other firm-specific factors. The results indicate that: (i) TFP growth has mainly been achieved through technical progress, while technical efficiency has on average decreased; (ii) the characteristics of technological regimes are important determinants of firm-level productivity growth, but their impacts on technical progress are different from the effects on efficiency change; (iii) the estimated model works differently in the two Schumpeterian regimes. Technical progress has been more dynamic in Schumpeter Mark II industries, while efficiency change has been more important in Schumpeter Mark I markets.

Discretization and solution of the inhomogeneous Bogoliubov-de Gennes equations

In the presence of inhomogeneities, defects and currents, the equations describing a Bose-condensed ensemble of alkali atoms have to be solved numerically. By combining both linear and nonlinear equations within a Discrete Variable Representation framework, we describe a computational scheme for the solution of the coupled Bogoliubov-de Gennes (BdG) and nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) equations for fields in a 3D spheroidal potential. We use the method to calculate the collective excitation spectrum and quasiparticle mode densities for excitations of a Bose condensed gas in a spheroidal trap. The method is compared against finite-difference and spectral methods, and we find the DVR computational scheme to be superior in accuracy and efficiency for the cases we consider. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.