A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

A key to selected rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) based on mitochondrial DNA restriction fragment analysis

Larval and juvenile rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) are difficult to identify using morphological characters. We developed a key based on sizes of restriction endonuclease fragments of the NADH dehydrogenase-3 and -4 (ND3/ND4) and 12S and 16S ribosomal RNA (12S/16S) mitochondrial regions. The key makes use of variation in the ND3/ND4 region. Restriction endonuclease Dde I variation can corroborate identifications, as can 12S/16S variation. The key, based on 71 species, includes most North American taxa, several Asian species, and Sebastolobus alascanus and Helicolenus hilgendorfi that are closely related to rockfishes. Fifty-eight of 71 rockfish species in our database can be distinguished unequivocally, using one to five restriction enzymes; identities of the remaining species are narrowed to small groups: 1) S. polyspinis, S. crameri, and S. ciliatus or variabilis (the two species could not be distinguished and were considered as a single species) ; 2) S. chlorostictus, S. eos, and S. rosenblatti; 3) S. entomelas and S. mystinus; 4)S. emphaeus, S. variegatus, and S. wilsoni; and 5) S. carnatus and S. chrysomelas.

Calibrating Analytical Models for Semilocal Strings

In this work we calibrate two different analytic models of semilocal strings by constraining the values of their free parameters. In order to do so, we use data obtained from the largest and most accurate field theory simulations of semilocal strings to date, and compare several key properties with the predictions of the models. As this is still work in progress, we present some preliminary results together with descriptions of the methodology we are using in the characterisation of semilocal string networks.

Rebuilding coastal fisheries livelihoods after the Tsunami: key lessons from past experience

Fishing communities around the Indian Ocean were severely affected by the December 2004 tsunamis. Programs for rebuilding coastal fisheries livelihoods need to address the pre-tsunami situation that was characterized by overfishing and degraded natural resources. Adopting appropriate strategies to ensure sustainable livelihoods will require community involvement, as well as cross-sectoral, integrated planning and management at ascending government levels. Key recommendations from the WorldFish Center study Sustainable Management of Coastal Fish Stocks in Asia are presented to encourage discussion and debate.