Quantificação de riscos climáticos via modelos de regressão de COX.

2008

EVOLUCAO DA CONCEPCAO DE NATUREZA E RELAÇÃO HOMEM/MEIO: ANALISE DE UNIDADES DE CONSERVAÇÃO NA AMERICA LATINA

O estabelecimento de Unidades de conservação é hoje um recurso usual quando se busca a proteção de ambientes naturais tidos como possuidores de grandes valores ecológicos. Esta, porém, não é uma prática recente. Tratando-se de América Latina, o primeiro parque nacional foi criado no México, em 1894. Sendo assim, este trabalho tem por objetivo compreender as formas históricas de manejo de unidades de conservação no contexto latino americano, percebendo, através da análise de suas diferentes tipologias a evolução da concepção de natureza. O manejo também permite delinear as diferentes formas do homem perceber e se relacionar com a natureza, seja este relacionamento de forma direta ou indireta. “[...] o planeta e a comunidade humana se confundem num todo único. A presença do homem é um fato em toda a face da Terra, e a ocupação que não se materializa é, todavia, politicamente existente.” (SANTOS, 2008, p. 99). Sendo assim, as distintas formas de “ocupação política” mediatizada pelo contexto das unidades de conservação são também um foco deste trabalho. Para tanto, lança-se mão das noções de preservacionismo e conservacionismo bem como daquelas relacionadas à relação homem natureza (num contexto de áreas protegidas), focando no manejo como a principal destas.

VULNERABILIDADE AGRÍCOLA DA PRODUÇÃO DE SOJA NA REGIÃO METROPOLITANA DE LONDRINA – PR: ANALISE DA SAFRA DE 2005/06

A produção de soja na região norte do estado do Paraná é responsável por contribuir imensurávelmente com a balança comercial do estado do Paraná, sabe-se que a soja possue um papel fundamental na economia agrícola da região norte do estado do Paraná onde se localizam as cidades de Cambé, Ibiporã, Londrina, Rolândia e Tamarana. O clima não é somente uma variável que marca o ritmo das estações do ano, é um fenômeno natural produzido pelo sistema Sol-Atmosfera-Terra, e exerce grande influência nas atividades humanas. Na agricultura, o clima pode ser aliado ou inimigo no plantio, no desenvolvimento, na produção e no rendimento final de grãos. Dessa forma, ao enfocar a soja como cultura líder na balança comercial brasileira, deve-se levar em consideração sua fisiologia que a define sendo uma cultura de verão, justamente pelo fato de germinar apenas com temperaturas superiores a 13º C. Para analisar possíveis interferências pluviométricas na cultura da soja, foram coletados dados de precipitação pluviométrica e de rendimento de soja das safras de 2005/06, 2006/07, 2007/08, 2008/09 e 2009/10. Os mapas cartográficos foram desenvolvidos segundo tais dados e contrapostos com o intuito de favorecer a análise dos resultados obtidos. Neste artigo, foram feitas analises especificamente das safras de 2005/06, sendo uma contribuição preliminar. O município de Londrina, tanto pela sua área territorial, quanto pelos investimentos no setor agrícola, destaca-se na produção de soja, exceto na safra de 2005/06, cujo rendimento final do grão foi inferior ao do município de Cambé. A precipitação média do mês de janeiro para o município de Londrina apresenta-se com média mensal de 76 mm, isso pode ser justificado pela ocorrência de um período de estiagem em janeiro de 2006 que afetou o município de Londrina, contribuindo com uma redução considerável no rendimento final da soja para o município.

Aplicação do escore MELD em pacientes submetidos a transplante de fígado: análise retrospectiva da sobrevida e dos fatores preditivos a curto e longo prazo

BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > 20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor >50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > 25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > 1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor <50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. CONCLUSION: In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.

Síndrome de Rett: estudo retrospectivo e prospectivo de 28 pacientes

From November 1982 to May 1999, 28 children with Rett syndrome were followed-up for a medium period of 6 years and 2 months. Regression of developmental milestones started at the age between 5 and 20 months. Nineteen cases of typical Rett syndrome had uneventful pre and perinatal periods, loss of previously acquired purposeful hand skills, mental and motor regression and developed hand stereotypies; sixteen had head growth deceleration and 12 gait apraxia. Nine patients were atypical cases, 2 formes frustres, 2 congenital, 3 with early seizure onset, 1 preserved speech and 1 male. Epilepsy was present in 21 patients, predominantly partial seizures and the drug of choise was carbamazepine (15 patients). In the initial evaluation most patients were distributed on Stages II and III and on follow-up on Stages III and IV. Three children died.

Influência da temperatura do ar de secagem no calor latente de vaporização de água em feijão macassar (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.), variedade sempre-verde

In order to determine the energy needed to artificially dry an agricultural product the latent heat of vaporization of moisture in the product, H, must be known. Generally, the expressions for H reported in the literature are of the form H = h(T)f(M), where h(T) is the latent heat of vaporization of free water, and f(M) is a function of the equilibrium moisture content, M, which is a simplification. In this article, a more general expression for the latent heat of vaporization, namely H = g(M,T), is used to determine H for cowpea, always-green variety. For this purpose, a computer program was developed which automatically fits about 500 functions, with one or two independent variables, imbedded in its library to experimental data. The program uses nonlinear regression, and classifies the best functions according to the least reduced chi-squared. A set of executed statistical tests shows that the generalized expression for H used in this work produces better results of H for cowpea than other equations found in literature.

Estimativa de parâmetros biofísicos de plantios de café a partir de imagens orbitais de alta resolução espacial

Remote sensing data are each time more available and can be used to monitor the vegetal development of main agricultural crops, such as the Arabic coffee in Brazil, since that the relationship between spectral and agronomical data be well known. Therefore, this work had the main objective to assess the use of Quickbird satellite images to estimate biophysical parameters of coffee crop. Test area was composed by 25 coffee fields located between the cities of Ribeirão Corrente, Franca and Cristais Paulista (SP), Brazil, and the biophysical parameters used were row and between plants spacing, plant height, LAI, canopy diameter, percentage of vegetation cover, roughness and biomass. Spectral data were the reflectance of four bands of QUICKBIRD and values of four vegetations indexes (NDVI, GVI, SAVI and RVI) based on the same satellite. All these data were analyzed using linear and nonlinear regression methods to generate estimation models of biophysical parameters. The use of regression models based on nonlinear equations was more appropriate to estimate parameters such as the LAI and the percentage of biomass, important to indicate the productivity of coffee crop.

Saúde dos adolescentes: um estudo de base populacional em Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil

We estimated the prevalence of chronic diseases and other health problems reported by adolescents in relation to social and demographic variables and nutritional status. This cross-sectional population-based survey analyzed data from the Health Survey in Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil, 2008. We used descriptive statistics and associations between variables with the chisquare test. Prevalence of chronic diseases among adolescents was 19.17%, with asthma showing the highest prevalence (7.59%), followed by heart disease (1.96%), hypertension (1.07%), and diabetes 0.21%. Prevalence rates were 61.53% for health problems, 40.39% for allergy, and 24.83% for frequent headache or migraine. After multivariate analysis using Poisson regression, the factors associated with chronic disease were age 15 to 19 years (PR = 1.38), not attending school (PR = 1.46), having children (PR = 1.84), and obesity (PR = 1.54). Female gender (PR = 1.12) was statistically associated with health problems. The study illustrates that adolescence is a life stage in which chronic disease and health problems can occur.

Factors associated with the prevalence of hypertension and control practices among elderly residents of São Paulo city, Brazil

The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence of hypertension and control practices among the elderly. The survey analyzed data from 872 elderly people in São Paulo, Brazil, through a cluster sampling, stratified according to education and income. A Poisson multiple regression model checked for the existence of factors associated with hypertension. The prevalence of self-reported hypertension among the elderly was 46.9%. Variables associated with hypertension were self-rated health, alcohol consumption, gender, and hospitalization in the last year, regardless of age. The three most common measures taken to control hypertension, but only rarely, are oral medication, routine salt-free diet and physical activity. Lifestyle and socioeconomic status did not affect the practice of control, but knowledge about the importance of physical activity was higher among those older people with higher education and greater income. The research suggests that health policies that focus on primary care to encourage lifestyle changes among the elderly are necessary.

Performativity and the claims of scientificity of modern linguistics

This paper discusses the claim of the situatedness of research in both theoretical and applied linguistics and some of its implications and argues that it is linked to the performativity of all assertions, including scientific ones. More importantly, I argue that it is the regressive infinity of performativity that makes inevitable the passage from presumably 'dispassionate' research to militancy.

Determinação do máximo déficit acumulado de oxigênio: efeito da duração dos testes submáximos para predição da demanda de oxigênio

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of different assessment time periods of submaximal tests on the determination of the maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD), through the adoption of different time slots of 4 to 6, 6 to 8 and 8 to 10 min. Ten cyclists with mean age of 27.5 ± 4.1 years, body mass 74.4 ± 12.7 kg and time experience of 9.8 ± 4.7 years participated in this study. The athletes underwent an incremental exercise test to determine the peak oxygen consumption (VO2peak), and four submaximal constant work-load test sessions (60, 70, 80 and 90% VO2peak) of 10 min in order to estimate the O2 demand (DEO2). The mean VO2 values obtained on each constant work-load for the 4 to 6, 6 to 8 and 8 to 10 min time-periods intervals were used to perform a linear regression between the intensity and O2 consumption for each time-period. In addition, the subjects performed one supramaximal rectangular test (110% VO2peak) for the quantification of MAOD. There was no significant difference in VO2 between the different time-periods for all submaximal tests (P> 0.05). Similarly, no significant difference was found in DEAO2 and MAOD (P> 0.05). Furthermore, the values of MAOD for the three time-periods intervals showed good agreement and strong correlation. Thus, the data suggest that the submaximal tests used to estimate the values of MAOD can be reduced, at least in this type of sample, and with the use of a cycle simulator.

Comparative analysis of adverse events between infliximab and adalimumab in Crohn's disease management: a Brazilian single-centre experience

INTRODUCTION: Data is scarce regarding adverse events (AE) of biological therapy used in the management of Crohn's Disease (CD) among Brazilian patients. OBJECTIVES: To analyse AE prevalence and profile in patients with CD treated with Infliximab (IFX) or Adalimumab (ADA) and to verify whether there are differences between the two drugs. METHOD: Retrospective observational single-centre study of CD patients on biological therapy. Variables analysed: Demographic data, Montreal classification, biological agent administered, treatment duration, presence and type of AE and the need for treatment interruption. RESULTS: Forty-nine patients were analysed, 25 treated with ADA and 24 with IFX. The groups were homogeneous in relation to the variables studied. The average follow-up period for the group treated with ADA was 19.3 months and 21.8 months for the IFX group (p = 0.585). Overall, 40% (n = 10) of patients taking ADA had AE compared with 50% (n = 12) of IFX users (p = 0.571). There was a tendency towards higher incidence of cutaneous and infusion reactions in the IFX group and higher incidence of infections in the ADA treated group, although without significant difference. CONCLUSIONS: No difference was found in the AE prevalence and profile between ADA and IFX CD patients in the population studied.

Patient education in glaucoma: what do patients know about glaucoma?

PURPOSE: To evaluate the knowledge glaucoma patients have about their disease and its treatment. METHODS: One hundred and eighty-three patients were interviewed at the Glaucoma Service of Wills Eye Hospital (Philadelphia, USA, Group 1) and 100 at the Glaucoma Service of University of Campinas (Campinas, Brazil, Group 2). An informal, relaxed atmosphere was created by the interviewer before asking a list of 18 open-ended questions. RESULTS: In Group 1, 44% of the 183 patients did not have an acceptable idea about what glaucoma is, 30% did not know the purpose of the medications they were taking, 47% were not aware of what was an average intraocular pressure, and 45% did not understand why visual fields were examined. In Group 2, 54% gave unsatisfactory answers to the question What is glaucoma?, 54% did not know the purpose of the medications they were taking, 80% were not aware of what was an average intraocular pressure, and 94% did not understand why visual fields were examined (p<0.001). Linear regression analysis demonstrated that level of education was positively correlated to knowledge about glaucoma in both groups (r=0.65, p=0.001). CONCLUSION: This study showed that patients' knowledge about glaucoma varies greatly, and that in an urban, American setting, around one third of the patients have minimal understanding, whereas in an urban setting in Brazil around two thirds of patients were lacking basic information about glaucoma. Innovative and effective methods are needed to correct this situation.

Flicker perimetry in healthy subjects: influence of age and gender, learning effect and short-term fluctuation

PURPOSE: To determine the mean critical fusion frequency and the short-term fluctuation, to analyze the influence of age, gender, and the learning effect in healthy subjects undergoing flicker perimetry. METHODS: Study 1 - 95 healthy subjects underwent flicker perimetry once in one eye. Mean critical fusion frequency values were compared between genders, and the influence of age was evaluated using linear regression analysis. Study 2 - 20 healthy subjects underwent flicker perimetry 5 times in one eye. The first 3 sessions were separated by an interval of 1 to 30 days, whereas the last 3 sessions were performed within the same day. The first 3 sessions were used to investigate the presence of a learning effect, whereas the last 3 tests were used to calculate short-term fluctuation. RESULTS: Study 1 - Linear regression analysis demonstrated that mean global, foveal, central, and critical fusion frequency per quadrant significantly decreased with age (p<0.05).There were no statistically significant differences in mean critical fusion frequency values between males and females (p>0.05), with the exception of the central area and inferonasal quadrant (p=0.049 and p=0.011, respectively), where the values were lower in females. Study 2 - Mean global (p=0.014), central (p=0.008), and peripheral (p=0.03) critical fusion frequency were significantly lower in the first session compared to the second and third sessions. The mean global short-term fluctuation was 5.06±1.13 Hz, the mean interindividual and intraindividual variabilities were 11.2±2.8% and 6.4±1.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that, in healthy subjects, critical fusion frequency decreases with age, that flicker perimetry is associated with a learning effect, and that a moderately high short-term fluctuation is expected.

Exostose múltipla hereditária com compressão medular

A case of hereditary multiple exostoses successfully operated is reported. The patient, a 15 year-old white brazilian boy, was admitted with tetraplegia and Babinski's sign. Early diagnosis followed by prompt surgery may prevent permanent spinal cord damage.