923 resultados para 340401 Economic Models and Forecasting


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Includes bibliography

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Information Paper, No 22

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This bulletin examines the impact of the economic crisis on the maritime and port sector.

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Using a new database of quarterly data for 21 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean for the 1990-2012 period, this document shows that the duration of GDP contractions appears to be a rather robust indicator of real volatility, and is negatively correlated with long run growth in Latin America and the Caribbean during the period. These results are consistent with different theoretical hypotheses in the literature that relate the duration of GDP contractions with economic growth. They also show that the relationship between real volatility and economic growth in the region is robust to the inclusion of external variables that control for external uncertainty and volatility.

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This edition puts focus on recent economic performance and policies in the Caribbean, acknowledging that ongoing challenges notwithstanding, macroeconomic indicators across the subregion are improving. Four articles will address respectively the prospects for growth, the fiscal situation, the performance of balance of payments and monetary policy and their impact.

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The survey provides an overview of the economic performance for 2014 of the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago plus the eight member states of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and the outlook for 2015. Data were collected from a review of reports from national governments and through interviews with government officials in each of the countries analyzed.

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An outcome of economic growth is increased employment, but this should not be the only measure to assess a country's labour market, it is also important to verify whether the jobs created are considered good jobs. Thus, this study analyses the Brazilian labour market from 2000 to 2009, in terms of the quantity and quality of jobs generated in this period. To this end, a descriptive analysis was performed, in addition to an evaluation using econometrics and the data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. The results of the research indicated that the Brazilian labour market is growing in terms of its quality.

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Searches are presented for heavy scalar (H) and pseudoscalar (A) Higgs bosons posited in the two doublet model (2HDM) extensions of the standard model (SM). These searches are based on a data sample of pp collisions collected with the CMS experiment at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of root s = 8 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.5 fb(-1). The decays H -> hh and A -> Zh, where h denotes an SM-like Higgs boson, lead to events with three or more isolated charged leptons or with a photon pair accompanied by one or more isolated leptons. The search results are presented in terms of the H and A production cross sections times branching fractions and are further interpreted in terms of 2HDM parameters. We place 95% C.L. cross section upper limits of approximately 7 pb on sigma B for H -> hh and 2 pb for A -> Zh. Also presented are the results of a search for the rare decay of the top quark that results in a charm quark and an SM Higgs boson, t -> ch, the existence of which would indicate a nonzero flavor-changing Yukawa coupling of the top quark to the Higgs boson. We place a 95% C.L. upper limit of 0.56% on B(t -> ch).