Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics - Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series.

Real-time determination of airspace wind speed field based on FDR = Determinación en tiempo real del campo de velocidad del viento basado en registradores de datos de vuelo

El estudio del comportamiento de la atmósfera ha resultado de especial importancia tanto en el programa SESAR como en NextGen, en los que la gestión actual del tránsito aéreo (ATM) está experimentando una profunda transformación hacia nuevos paradigmas tanto en Europa como en los EE.UU., respectivamente, para el guiado y seguimiento de las aeronaves en la realización de rutas más eficientes y con mayor precisión. La incertidumbre es una característica fundamental de los fenómenos meteorológicos que se transfiere a la separación de las aeronaves, las trayectorias de vuelo libres de conflictos y a la planificación de vuelos. En este sentido, el viento es un factor clave en cuanto a la predicción de la futura posición de la aeronave, por lo que tener un conocimiento más profundo y preciso de campo de viento reducirá las incertidumbres del ATC. El objetivo de esta tesis es el desarrollo de una nueva técnica operativa y útil destinada a proporcionar de forma adecuada y directa el campo de viento atmosférico en tiempo real, basada en datos de a bordo de la aeronave, con el fin de mejorar la predicción de las trayectorias de las aeronaves. Para lograr este objetivo se ha realizado el siguiente trabajo. Se han descrito y analizado los diferentes sistemas de la aeronave que proporcionan las variables necesarias para obtener la velocidad del viento, así como de las capacidades que permiten la presentación de esta información para sus aplicaciones en la gestión del tráfico aéreo. Se ha explorado el uso de aeronaves como los sensores de viento en un área terminal para la estimación del viento en tiempo real con el fin de mejorar la predicción de las trayectorias de aeronaves. Se han desarrollado métodos computacionalmente eficientes para estimar las componentes horizontales de la velocidad del viento a partir de las velocidades de las aeronaves (VGS, VCAS/VTAS), la presión y datos de temperatura. Estos datos de viento se han utilizado para estimar el campo de viento en tiempo real utilizando un sistema de procesamiento de datos a través de un método de mínima varianza. Por último, se ha evaluado la exactitud de este procedimiento para que esta información sea útil para el control del tráfico aéreo. La información inicial proviene de una muestra de datos de Registradores de Datos de Vuelo (FDR) de aviones que aterrizaron en el aeropuerto Madrid-Barajas. Se dispuso de datos de ciertas aeronaves durante un periodo de más de tres meses que se emplearon para calcular el vector viento en cada punto del espacio aéreo. Se utilizó un modelo matemático basado en diferentes métodos de interpolación para obtener los vectores de viento en áreas sin datos disponibles. Se han utilizado tres escenarios concretos para validar dos métodos de interpolación: uno de dos dimensiones que trabaja con ambas componentes horizontales de forma independiente, y otro basado en el uso de una variable compleja que relaciona ambas componentes. Esos métodos se han probado en diferentes escenarios con resultados dispares. Esta metodología se ha aplicado en un prototipo de herramienta en MATLAB © para analizar automáticamente los datos de FDR y determinar el campo vectorial del viento que encuentra la aeronave al volar en el espacio aéreo en estudio. Finalmente se han obtenido las condiciones requeridas y la precisión de los resultados para este modelo. El método desarrollado podría utilizar los datos de los aviones comerciales como inputs utilizando los datos actualmente disponibles y la capacidad computacional, para proporcionárselos a los sistemas ATM donde se podría ejecutar el método propuesto. Estas velocidades del viento calculadas, o bien la velocidad respecto al suelo y la velocidad verdadera, se podrían difundir, por ejemplo, a través del sistema de direccionamiento e informe para comunicaciones de aeronaves (ACARS), mensajes de ADS-B o Modo S. Esta nueva fuente ayudaría a actualizar la información del viento suministrada en los productos aeronáuticos meteorológicos (PAM), informes meteorológicos de aeródromos (AIRMET), e información meteorológica significativa (SIGMET). ABSTRACT The study of the atmosphere behaviour is been of particular importance both in SESAR and NextGen programs, where the current air traffic management (ATM) system is undergoing a profound transformation to the new paradigms both in Europe and the USA, respectively, to guide and track aircraft more precisely on more efficient routes. Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather phenomena which is transferred to separation assurance, flight path de-confliction and flight planning applications. In this respect, the wind is a key factor regarding the prediction of the future position of the aircraft, so that having a deeper and accurate knowledge of wind field will reduce ATC uncertainties. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a new and operationally useful technique intended to provide adequate and direct real-time atmospheric winds fields based on on-board aircraft data, in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction. In order to achieve this objective the following work has been accomplished. The different sources in the aircraft systems that provide the variables needed to derivate the wind velocity have been described and analysed, as well as the capabilities which allow presenting this information for air traffic management applications. The use of aircraft as wind sensors in a terminal area for real-time wind estimation in order to improve aircraft trajectory prediction has been explored. Computationally efficient methods have been developed to estimate horizontal wind components from aircraft velocities (VGS, VCAS/VTAS), pressure, and temperature data. These wind data were utilized to estimate a real-time wind field using a data processing approach through a minimum variance method. Finally, the accuracy of this procedure has been evaluated for this information to be useful to air traffic control. The initial information comes from a Flight Data Recorder (FDR) sample of aircraft landing in Madrid-Barajas Airport. Data available for more than three months were exploited in order to derive the wind vector field in each point of the airspace. Mathematical model based on different interpolation methods were used in order to obtain wind vectors in void areas. Three particular scenarios were employed to test two interpolation methods: a two-dimensional one that works with both horizontal components in an independent way, and also a complex variable formulation that links both components. Those methods were tested using various scenarios with dissimilar results. This methodology has been implemented in a prototype tool in MATLAB © in order to automatically analyse FDR and determine the wind vector field that aircraft encounter when flying in the studied airspace. Required conditions and accuracy of the results were derived for this model. The method developed could be fed by commercial aircraft utilizing their currently available data sources and computational capabilities, and providing them to ATM system where the proposed method could be run. Computed wind velocities, or ground and true airspeeds, would then be broadcasted, for example, via the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), ADS-B out messages, or Mode S. This new source would help updating the wind information furnished in meteorological aeronautical products (PAM), meteorological aerodrome reports (AIRMET), and significant meteorological information (SIGMET).

On the Analytical Approach to Present Engineering Problems: Photovoltaic Systems Behavior, Wind Speed Sensors Performance, and High-Speed Train Pressure Wave Effects in Tunnels

At present, engineering problems required quite a sophisticated calculation means. However, analytical models still can prove to be a useful tool for engineers and scientists when dealing with complex physical phenomena. The mathematical models developed to analyze three different engineering problems: photovoltaic devices analysis; cup anemometer performance; and high-speed train pressure wave effects in tunnels are described. In all cases, the results are quite accurate when compared to testing measurements.

Temperatures, salinity, wind speed, grain sizes and foraminifera abundance in the Great Belt Channel, western Baltic Sea

The Great Belt, the largest inlet to the Baltic Sea, has a deep and well defined channel system. A distinct thermohaline layer at roughly 18 to 20 m of water depth separates the saltier and generally cooler deeper North Sea water from the brackish and warmer surface water. It is practically a current dominated area, with the strongest bottom currents due to prolonged west winds. The size and shape of the surface sediments and their grain size distributions show a close relationship with the prevailing hydrographical conditions. Southerly current marks predominate while northerly directions are confined to 10 to 14 m of water depth. The degree of bioturbation is highest in the uppermost sedimentary cover where practically all original stratification has been destroyed. Various bioturbate structures have been identified with the fauna. Coiling ratios of Ammonia beccarii (Linnaeus) have been successfully applied for correlation in the postglacial sediments of the early Littorina Transgression. The succession shows that in the Boreal brackish water conditions were probably followed by peat and limnic sediments as the sea regressed. With the Littorina Transgression, the sea again entered the area and high sedimentation rates resulted in the major deposits of the Great Belt. At least for the last 4000 years, sedimentation rates had been very low. Present day currents sweep out the sediments, mainly to the southern marginal areas.

Inertial dissipation method applied to derive turbulent fluxed over the ocean during the Surface of the Ocean, Fluxes and Interactions with the Atmosphere Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (SOFIA/ASTEX) and Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiments with low to moderate wind speed

The transfer coefficients for momentum and heat have been determined for 10 m neutral wind speeds (U-10n) between 0 and 12 m/s using data from the Surface of the Ocean, Fluxes and Interactions with the Atmosphere (SOFIA) and Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphere, Proprietes des Heterogeneites Oceaniques: Recherche Experimentale (SEMAPHORE) experiments. The inertial dissipation method was applied to wind and pseudo virtual temperature spectra from a sonic anemometer, mounted on a platform (ship) which was moving through the turbulence held. Under unstable conditions the assumptions concerning the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget appeared incorrect. Using a bulk estimate for the stability parameter, Z/L (where Z is the height and L is the Obukhov length), this resulted in anomalously low drag coefficients compared to neutral conditions. Determining Z/L iteratively, a low rate of convergence was achieved. It was concluded that the divergence of the turbulent transport of TKE was not negligible under unstable conditions. By minimizing the dependence of the calculated neutral drag coefficient on stability, this term was estimated at about -0.65Z/L. The resulting turbulent fluxes were then in close agreement with other studies at moderate wind speed. The drag and exchange coefficients for low wind speeds were found to be C-en x 10(3) = 2.79U(10n)(-1) + 0.66 (U-10n < 5.2 m/s), C-en x 10(3) = C-hn x 10(3) = 1.2 (U-10n greater than or equal to 5.2 m/s), and C-dn x 10(3) = 11.7U(10n)(-2) + 0.668 (U-10n < 5.5 m/s), which imply a rapid increase of the coefficient values as the wind decreased within the smooth flow regime. The frozen turbulence hypothesis and the assumptions of isotropy and an inertial subrange were found to remain valid at these low wind speeds for these shipboard measurements. Incorporation of a free convection parameterization had little effect.

Stability enhancement of DFIG wind turbine using LQR pitch control over rated wind speed

A novel pitch control design method is proposed for the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbine (WT) using linear quadratic regulator (LQR). A seven-order model represents the DFIG WT which is linearized by truncated Taylor series expansion. A systematic approach is adopted to determine the weighting matrices in LQR design for the optimal solution. Simulations have been carried out to compare the performance of the proposed LQR pitch control method against a PI pitch control for small and large disturbances. It is shown that the proposed control method enhances low-voltage ride-through capability and improves system damping under large disturbances.

Controller design for variable-speed permanent magnet wind turbine generators interfaced with Z-source inverter

Increased awareness of environmental concerns has caused greater interest in developing power sources based on renewable technologies, such as wind. Due to the intermittent nature of the wind speed, output voltage and frequency of the direct driven permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG) are normally unsteady. Recently proposed Z-source inverter has been considered as a potential solution for grid interfacing wind power generators, thanks to buck-boost function that the single stage Z-source inverter can offer. Two control methodologies, namely unified controller for isolated operation and a multi-loop controller for grid interfaced operation are investigated in this paper. Theoretical analysis of these two control schemes is presented and experimental results to verify the effectiveness of the control method are also included.

Fault detection of wind turbine drivetrain utilizing power-speed characteristics

Wind energy, being the fastest growing renewable energy source in the present world, requires a large number of wind turbines to transform wind energy into electricity. One factor driving the cost of this energy is the reliable operation of these turbines. Therefore, it is a growing requirement within the wind farm community, to monitor the operation of the wind turbines on a continuous basis so that a possible fault can be detected ahead of time. As the wind turbine operates in an environment of constantly changing wind speed, it is a challenging task to design a fault detection technique which can accommodate the stochastic operational behavior of the turbines. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a novel fault detection criterion which is robust against operational uncertainty, as well as having the ability to quantify severity level specifically of the drivetrain abnormality within an operating wind turbine. A benchmark model of wind turbine has been utilized to simulate drivetrain fault condition and effectiveness of the proposed technique has been tested accordingly. From the simulation result it can be concluded that the proposed criterion exhibits consistent performance for drivetrain faults for varying wind speed and has linear relationship with the fault severity level.