Testing FCM technique for the wind energy scenarios in Finland

In the latter days, human activities constantly increase greenhouse gases emissions in the atmosphere, which has a direct impact on a global climate warming. Finland as European Union member, developed national structural plan to promote renewable energy generation, pursuing the aspects of Directive 2009/28/EC and put it on the sharepoint. Finland is on a way of enhancing national security of energy supply, increasing diversity of the energy mix. There are plenty significant objectives to develop onshore and offshore wind energy generation in country for a next few decades, as well as another renewable energy sources. To predict the future changes, there are a lot of scenario methods developed and adapted to energy industry. The Master’s thesis explored “Fuzzy cognitive maps” approach in scenarios developing, which captures expert’s knowledge in a graphical manner and using these captures for a raw scenarios testing and refinement. There were prospects of Finnish wind energy development for the year of 2030 considered, with aid of FCM technique. Five positive raw scenarios were developed and three of them tested against integrated expert’s map of knowledge, using graphical simulation. The study provides robust scenarios out of the preliminary defined, as outcome, assuming the impact of results, taken after simulation. The thesis was conducted in such way, that there will be possibilities to use existing knowledge captures from expert panel, to test and deploy different sets of scenarios regarding to Finnish wind energy development.

An Economic Analysis of Wind Energy Production in the Remote Areas of Quebec.

Rapport de recherche

Variational calculations of rovibrational states: a precise high-energy potential surface for HCN [and discussion]

We report the results of variational calculations of the rovibrational energy levels of HCN for J = 0, 1 and 2, where we reproduce all the ca. 100 observed vibrational states for all observed isotopic species, with energies up to 18000 cm$^{-1}$, to about $\pm $1 cm$^{-1}$, and the corresponding rotational constants to about $\pm $0.001 cm$^{-1}$. We use a hamiltonian expressed in internal coordinates r$_{1}$, r$_{2}$ and $\theta $, using the exact expression for the kinetic energy operator T obtained by direct transformation from the cartesian representation. The potential energy V is expressed as a polynomial expansion in the Morse coordinates y$_{i}$ for the bond stretches and the interbond angle $\theta $. The basis functions are built as products of appropriately scaled Morse functions in the bond-stretches and Legendre or associated Legendre polynomials of cos $\theta $ in the angle bend, and we evaluate matrix elements by Gauss quadrature. The hamiltonian matripx is factorized using the full rovibrational symmetry, and the basis is contracted to an optimized form; the dimensions of the final hamiltonian matrix vary from 240 $\times $ 240 to 1000 $\times $ 1000.We believe that our calculation is converged to better than 1 cm$^{-1}$ at 18 000 cm$^{-1}$. Our potential surface is expressed in terms of 31 parameters, about half of which have been refined by least squares to optimize the fit to the experimental data. The advantages and disadvantages and the future potential of calculations of this type are discussed.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of a benchmark wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021–2060 and 2061–2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveals a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is, in particular, probable during the second half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061–2100 compared to 2021–2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

Average Annual Wind Resource Potential in Maine

http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/atlasofmaine2006/1000/thumbnail.jpg

A comparative study of MPPT strategies and a novel singlephase integrated buck-boost inverter for small wind energy conversion systems

This paper presents the analysis of some usual MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking) strategies intended for small wind energy conversion (up to 1kW) based on permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG), considering the stand-alone application for a novel buck-boost integrated inverter. Each MPPT method is analytically introduced and then it is simulated using MatLab/Simulink considering standard conditions of wind and also commercially available turbines and generators. The extracted power in each case is compared with the maximum available power, so the tracking factor is calculated for each method. Thus, the focus is on the application to improve the efficiency of stand-alone wind energy conversion systems (WECS) with battery chargers and AC load supplied by inverter. Therefore, for this purpose a novel single phase buck-boost integrated inverter is introduced. Finally, the main experimental results for the introduced inverter are presented. © 2011 IEEE.

Imaging the Heliosphere using neutral Atoms from Solar Wind Energy down to 15 eV

We study the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrogen energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) from the heliosheath observed with the IBEX-Lo sensor of the Interstellar Boundary EXplorer (IBEX) from solar wind energies down to the lowest available energy (15 eV). All available IBEX-Lo data from 2009 January until 2013 June were included. The sky regions imaged when the spacecraft was outside of Earth's magnetosphere and when the Earth was moving toward the direction of observation offer a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio even at very low energies. We find that the ENA ribbon—a 20° wide region of high ENA intensities—is most prominent at solar wind energies whereas it fades at lower energies. The maximum emission in the ribbon is located near the poles for 2 keV and closer to the ecliptic plane for energies below 1 keV. This shift is an evidence that the ENA ribbon originates from the solar wind. Below 0.1 keV, the ribbon can no longer be identified against the globally distributed ENA signal. The ENA measurements in the downwind direction are affected by magnetospheric contamination below 0.5 keV, but a region of very low ENA intensities can be identified from 0.1 keV to 2 keV. The energy spectra of heliospheric ENAs follow a uniform power law down to 0.1 keV. Below this energy, they seem to become flatter, which is consistent with predictions. Due to the subtraction of local background, the ENA intensities measured with IBEX agree with the upper limit derived from Lyα observations.

Wind turbine wakes for wind energy

During recent years, wind energy has moved from an emerging technology to a nearly competitive technology. This fact, coupled with an increasing global focus on environmental concern and a political desire of a certain level of diversification in the energy supply, ensures wind energy an important role in the future electricity market. For this challenge to be met in a cost-efficient way, a substantial part of new wind turbine installations is foreseen to be erected in big onshore or offshore wind farms. This fact makes the production, loading and reliability of turbines operating under such conditions of particular interest.

Development of a grid connected micro wind generator. A practical activity for the course on electric generation with wind energy

This paper describes a practical activity, part of the renewable energy course where the students have to build their own complete wind generation system, including blades, PM-generator, power electronics and control. After connecting the system to the electric grid the system has been tested during real wind scenarios. The paper will describe the electric part of the work surface-mounted permanent magnet machine design criteria as well as the power electronics part for the power control and the grid connection. A Kalman filter is used for the voltage phase estimation and current commands obtained in order to control active and reactive power. The connection to the grid has been done and active and reactive power has been measured in the system.

How has Spain become a leader in the wind energy industry during the last decade?

During the last decade, wind energy has been the fastest growing renewable source of energy worldwide. Limited sources of fossil fuel in addition to the negative effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the environment have led many countries to support development of renewable energies such as wind energy. Spain as the fourth biggest producer of wind energy plays an important global role in wind industry. In this paper, some important factors in the rapid growth of wind energy in Spain such as policy design, industry and technology, economic environment and social acceptance have been studied. The objective of this study is to introduce a model based on the successful development of wind energy in Spain which can be implemented by other countries

Renewable energies Driven by Feed-on Tariffs. Photovoltaic vs Wind Energy Development in Spain

Although others regulations regarding feed-in tariffs for photovoltaics (PV) existed in Spain previously, the one that meant a paradigm change was the introduction in 2007 of law R.D.661/2007 which established a feed-in tariff of 41,75 cents/kWh if the installed capacity was greater than 100KWp and 44,04 cents/kWh if it was smaller. The high level of the subsidies together with the lack of a limit for the total installed capacity originates the well-known Spanish photovoltaic boom. In September 2008 the installed PV capacity accounted for 3.2GWp (while the official objective stated in the national renewable roadmap was only 400MWp). To avoid this situation a new law, R.D. 1578/2008, was proclaimed which established a decreasing feed-in tariff of 32 cents/kWh (for ground installations) and 34 cents/kWh (for rooftops) and it limited the annual installed capacity to 500MWp. Although it was successful in limiting the PV subsidies total costs, the successive and sudden changes in regulations resulted very harmful to the local PV industry. In this article, the strong influence of feed-in tariff in the development of PV installed capacity and market evolution in Spain will be analyzed in detail. In addition, a comparison with other subsidized technologies which installed capacity has had a smoother evolution, as wind energy, will be presented.

Analysis of Renewable Energy Policies Related to Repowering the Wind Energy Sector: the Spanish Case

In countries that started early with wind energy, the old wind turbines were located in places where the wind is often very good. Since the best places in which the wind is concerned are occupied by old wind turbines (with lower capacity than the more recent ones) the trend is to start replacing old turbines with new ones. With repowering, the first generation of wind turbines can be replaced by modern multi-megawatt wind turbines. The aim of this article is to analyze energy policies in the Spanish energy sector in the repowering of wind farms from the viewpoint of the current situation of the wind energy sector. The approach presented in this article is meant to explain what have been the policies related to the repowering sector making a brief analysis of the spectrum of different stimulii that are demanded by the market analyzing also the future perspectives of the repowering sector by establishing the new opportunities based on the new published regulations.

The cup anemometer, a fundamental meteorological instrument for the wind energy industry

The cup anemometer has been used widely by the wind energy industry since its early beginning, covering two fundamental aspects: wind mill performance control and wind energy production forecast. Furthermore, despite modern technological advances such as LIDAR and SODAR, the cup anemometer remains clearly the most used instrument by the wind energy industry. Together with the major advantages of this instrument (precision, robustness), some issues must be taken into account by scientists and researchers when using it. Overspeeding, interaction with stream wakes due to allocation on masts and wind- mills, loss of performance due to wear and tear, change of performance due to different climatic conditions, checking of the maintenance status and recalibration, etc. In the present work a review of the research campaigns carried out at the IDR/UPM Institute to analyze cup anemometer performance is included. Several aspects of this instrument are examined: the calibration process, the loss of performances due to aging and wear and tear, the effect of changes of air density, the rotor aerodynamics, and the harmonic terms contained in the anemometer output signal and their possible relation to the anemometer performances.