Pesquisas sôbre a análise estatística de experiências de adubação com o auxílio da lei de Mitscherlich

Statistical analyses of an experiment on wheat were carried out with the aid of Mitscherlich's law. The experiment was made in Ponta Grossa, Paraná, by the Ministry of Agriculture of Brasil. Lime, in the form of Ca(OH)2, was applied at the levels of 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 metric tons per hectare. A 5 x 5 Latin square was used. Lime was applied in 1940 and wheat was cultivated in the same plots for several years. The following fertilizers were annually used for all plots: NaNO3 100 kilograms per hectare, Superphosphate 350 kilograms per hectare, K2S04 80 kilograms per hectare. The statistical analysis of the data collected in 1941, 1942, 1943, 1947 and 1948, carried out in accordance with the methods previously introduced by Pimentel Gomes and Malavolta (1949 a, 1949 b) and Pimentel Gomes (1950), proved: I. That Mitscherlich's law could be correctly applied to the data. II. That there was a statistically significant effect of lime on wheat yield. III. That the optimum amount of lime to be applied to the soil lies between 5 and 15 hundred kilograms of Ca(OH)2 per hectare. IV. That there is a migration of calcium from some plots to others, in such a way that the data obtained in 1947 and 1948 are not representative of the amounts of lime applied in 1940. V. That the analysis of variance can be used, as the Bartlett test shows that the variances at the distinct levele of lime application are not statistically different. It must be noted that, with improved variety and fertilization, the yield was rised to about 2500 kilograms per hectare in 1947, and 1600 in 1948, being only of about 100 kilograms per hectare in 1940.

Do Rates and Splitting of Phosphogypsum Applications Influence the Soil and Annual Crops in a No-Tillage System?

ABSTRACT Applications of phosphogypsum (PG) provide nutrients to the soil and reduce Al3+ activity, favoring soil fertility and root growth, but allow Mg2+ mobilization through the soil profile, resulting in variations in the PG rate required to achieve the optimum crop yield. This study evaluated the effect of application rates and splitting of PG on soil fertility of a Typic Hapludox, as well as the influence on annual crops under no-tillage. Using a (4 × 3) + 1 factorial structure, the treatments consisted of four PG rates (3, 6, 9, and 12 Mg ha-1) and three split applications (P1 = 100 % in 2009; P2 = 50+50 % in 2009 and 2010; P3 = 33+33+33 % in 2009, 2010 and 2011), plus a control without PG. The soil was sampled six months after the last PG application, in stratified layers to a depth of 0.8 m. Corn, wheat and soybean were sown between November 2011 and December 2012, and leaf samples were collected for analysis when at least 50 % of the plants showed reproductive structures. The application of PG increased Ca2+ concentrations in all sampled soil layers and the soil pH between 0.2 and 0.8 m, and reduced the concentrations of Al3+ in all layers and of Mg2+ to a depth of 0.6 m, without any effect of splitting the applications. The soil Ca/Mg ratio increased linearly to a depth of 0.6 m with the rates and were found to be higher in the 0.0-0.1 m layer of the P2 and P3 treatments than without splitting (P1). Sulfur concentrations increased linearly by application rates to a depth of 0.8 m, decreasing in the order P3>P2>P1 to a depth of 0.4 m and were higher in the treatments P3 and P2 than P1 between 0.4-0.6 m, whereas no differences were observed in the 0.6-0.8 m layer. No effect was recorded for K, P and potential acidity (H+Al). The leaf Ca and S concentration increased, while Mg decreased for all crops treated with PG, and there was no effect of splitting the application. The yield response of corn to PG rates was quadratic, with the maximum technical efficiency achieved at 6.38 Mg ha-1 of PG, while wheat yield increased linearly in a growing season with a drought period. Soybean yield was not affected by the PG rate, and splitting had no effect on the yield of any of the crops. Phosphogypsum improved soil fertility in the profile, however, Mg2+ migrated downwards, regardless of application splitting. Splitting the PG application induced a higher Ca/Mg ratio in the 0.0-0.1 m layer and less S leaching, but did not affect the crop yield. The application rates had no effect on soybean yield, but were beneficial for corn and, especially, for wheat, which was affected by a drought period during growth.

Cultivares de trigo sob manejos de solo e água, na região de cerrado

A cultura do trigo, sob irrigação por aspersão ou sequeiro, vem sendo introduzida nos últimos anos no cerrado brasileiro. O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar o efeito do manejo do solo e água nas características fenológicas e produtivas de cultivares de trigo, na região de cerrado. O estudo foi conduzido na área experimental da UNESP, localizada em Selvíria, MS. Adotou-se um delineamento experimental em blocos casualizados, num esquema fatorial, com quatro repetições, sendo as mesmas constituídas por dois manejos de solo (arado de aivecas e plantio direto), dois manejos de água (-0,05MPa e -0,07MPa) e três cultivares de trigo ('BRS 210', 'BR 18', 'IAC 24'). O plantio direto proporcionou maior rendimento de grãos de trigo em relação ao preparo do solo com arado de aivecas para as cultivares 'BRS 210' e 'BRS 18'. O manejo de água com tensão -0,05MPa foi o que proporcionou maior rendimento de grãos.

Coberturas vegetais e doses de nitrogênio em trigo sob sistema plantio direto

The application of conservation practices in production systems is essential to the sustainability of the agricultural production capacity. The use of different cover crops can reduce the need of topdressing nitrogen fertilizers in wheat crops. This study aimed at evaluating the influence of cover crops residues (millet, sunn hemp, pigeon pea, millet + sunn hemp, millet + pigeon pea and fallow ground), grown previously to the summer crop (rice), and topdressing nitrogen doses (0 kg ha-1, 25 kg ha-1, 50 kg ha-1, 75 kg ha-1, 100 kg ha-1 and 125 kg ha-1), in the development and yield of wheat under no-tillage system. The experiment was carried out in Selvíria, Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil, in a Red Oxisol, in 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. The experimental design was randomized blocks, in a 6x6 factorial scheme. The cover crops developed during August/October (2009/2010) and September/November (2010/2011), previously to the summer crop, with the chemical desiccation performed respectively at 73 and 55 days after sowing. The wheat (winter) was sown in May, in both periods, and harvested at 113 (2009/2010) and 106 (2010/2011) days after emergence. The cover crops residues of pigeon pea, sunn hemp and millet + sunn hemp, preceding wheat, provided higher wheat yields, relatively to the fallow ground. The wheat yield showed a quadratic response to the increase in the nitrogen availability, reaching higher yields with the nitrogen doses estimated in 113 kg ha-1 (2010) and 98 kg ha-1 (2011).

Estimativa da produtividade de trigo em função da adubação nitrogenada utilizando modelagem neuro fuzzy

Currently new techniques for data processing, such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and hybrid systems are used to develop predictive models of complex systems and to estimate the desired parameters. In this article the use of an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system was investigated to estimate the productivity of wheat, using a database of combination of the following treatments: five N doses (0, 50, 100, 150 and 200 kg ha(-1)), three sources (Entec, ammonium sulfate and urea), two application times of N (at sowing or at side-dressing) and two wheat cultivars (IAC 370 and E21), that were evaluated during two years in Selviria, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Through the input and output data, the system of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference learns, and then can estimate a new value of wheat yield with different N doses. The productivity prediciton error of wheat in function of five N doses, using a neuro fuzzy system, was smaller than that one obtained with a quadratic approximation. The results show that the neuro fuzzy system is a viable prediction model for estimating the wheat yield in function of N doses.

Doses, fontes e épocas de aplicação de nitrogênio influenciando teores de clorofila e produtividade do trigo

To achieve high wheat yield, correct management of N fertilization and the use of high yield potential cultivars are necessary. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of different application rates and sources of N, applied totally at sowing or in topdressing, on grain yield and yield components of two irrigated wheat cultivars under a no-till system, grown in a Cerrado (Brazilian tropical savanna) region of low altitude. A randomized block design was used in a 5 x 3 x 2 x 2 factorial arrangement with three replications, combining five levels of N (0, 50, 100, 150, and 200 kg ha(-1)), three sources of N (Entec (R), ammonium sulfate, and urea), and two application times (at sowing, near the rows, or in topdressing) in two wheat cultivars (IAC 370 and Embrapa 21). The wheat cultivars had similar grain yields. There was no difference among the sources of N for grain yield and yield components. The N applied totally at sowing did not differ from the traditional application at sowing and in topdressing for production of irrigated wheat in no-tillage. The increase in application rates of N increased the leaf N contents and chlorophyll, plant height, and the number of ears per m(2). Grain yield of the wheat cultivars IAC 370 and Embrapa 21 increased up to the application rates of 134 and 128 kg ha(-1) of N, respectively, regardless of application time and source of N. The positive correlation between chlorophyll leaf content and grain yield in accordance with N fertilization levels indicates that N fertilization in topdressing can be recommended based on SPAD readings of leaf chlorophyll performed at 38 days after wheat plant emergence.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.

Does land fragmentation affect farm performance? A case study from Brittany. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 40, April 2013

Agricultural land fragmentation is widespread and may affect farmers’ decisions and impact farm performance, either negatively or positively. The authors investigated this impact for the western region of Brittany, France, in 2007, regressing a set of performance indicators on a set of fragmentation descriptors. The performance indicators (production costs, yields, revenue, profitability, technical and scale efficiency) were calculated at the farm level using Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data, while the fragmentation descriptors were calculated at the municipality level using data from the cartographic field pattern registry (RPG). The various fragmentation descriptors enabled the authors to account for not only the traditional number and average size of plots, but also their geographical scattering. They found that farms experienced higher costs of production, lower crop yields and lower profitability where land fragmentation (LF) was more pronounced. Total technical efficiency was not found to be significantly related to any of the municipality LF descriptors used, while scale efficiency was lower where the average distance to the nearest neighbouring plot was greater. Pure technical efficiency was found to be negatively related to the average number of plots in the municipality, with the unexpected result that it was also positively related to the average distance to the nearest neighbouring plot. By simulating the impact of hypothetical consolidation programmes on average pre-tax profits and wheat yield, the study also showed that the marginal benefits of reducing fragmentation may differ with respect to the improved LF dimension and the performance indicator considered. The analysis therefore shows that the measures of land fragmentation usually used in the literature do not reveal the full set of significant relationships with farm performance and that, in particular, measures accounting for distance should be considered more systematically.

Évaluation de modèles prévisionnels de la fusariose de l'épi chez le blé sous les conditions de culture du Québec

La fusariose de l’épi est une maladie fongique des cultures céréalières au Québec. Les objectifs de ce projet étaient de vérifier l’influence de quatre facteurs (météorologie, cultivar, date de semis, fongicide) sur les rendements et la qualité du blé et d’évaluer les performances de neuf modèles à prédire l’incidence de cette maladie. Pendant deux ans, à quatre sites expérimentaux au Québec, des essais de blé de printemps et d’automne ont été implantés pour amasser un jeu de données météorologiques, phénologiques et épidémiologiques. L’application d’un fongicide a réduit la teneur en désoxynivalénol des grains dans neuf essais sur douze et a augmenté les rendements dans sept essais. De plus, les modèles prévisionnels américains et argentins ont eu de meilleures performances que les modèles canadiens et italiens quand leur seuil de décision était ajusté et que le développement du blé était suivi au champ.

Genotype-by-management interactions for grain yield and grain protein concentration of wheat

The magnitude of genotype-by-management (G x M) interactions for grain yield and grain protein concentration was examined in a multi-environment trial (MET) involving a diverse set of 272 advanced breeding lines from the Queensland wheat breeding program. The MET was structured as a series of management-regimes imposed at 3 sites for 2 years. The management-regimes were generated at each site-year as separate trials in which planting time, N fertiliser application rate, cropping history, and irrigation were manipulated. irrigation was used to simulate different rainfall regimes. From the combined analysis of variance, the G x M interaction variance components were found to be the largest source of G x E interaction variation for both grain yield (0.117 +/- 0.005 t(2) ha(-2); 49% of total G x E 0.238 +/- 0.028 t(2) ha(-2)) and grain protein concentration (0.445 +/- 0.020%(2); 82% of total G x E 0.546 +/- 0.057%(2)), and in both cases this source of variation was larger than the genotypic variance component (grain yield 0.068 +/- 0.014 t(2) ha(-2) and grain protein 0.203 +/- 0.026%(2)). The genotypic correlation between the traits varied considerably with management-regime, ranging from -0.98 to -0.31, with an estimate of 0.0 for one trial. Pattern analysis identified advanced breeding lines with improved grain yield and grain protein concentration relative to the cultivars Hartog, Sunco and Meteor. It is likely that a large component of the previously documented G x E interactions for grain yield of wheat in the northern grains region are in part a result of G x M interactions. The implications of the strong influence of G x M interactions for the conduct of wheat breeding METs in the northern region are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Mining wheat germplasm collections for yield enhancing traits

The material in genebanks includes valuable traditional varieties and landraces, non-domesticated species, advanced and obsolete cultivars, breeding lines and genetic stock. It is the wide variety of potentially useful genetic diversity that makes collections valuable. While most of the yield increases to date have resulted from manipulation of a few major traits (such as height, photoperiodism, and vernalization), meeting future demand for increased yields will require exploitation of novel genetic resources. Many traits have been reported to have potential to enhance yield, and high expression of these can be found in germplasm collections. To boost yield in irrigated situations, spike fertility must be improved simultaneously with photosynthetic capacity. CIMMYT's Wheat Genetic Resources program has identified a source of multi-ovary florets, with up to 6 kernels per floret. Lines from landrace collections have been identified that have very high chlorophyll concentration, which may increase leaf photosynthetic rate. High chlorophyll concentration and high stomatal conductance are associated with heat tolerance. Recent studies, through augmented use of seed multiplication nurseries, identified high expression of these traits in bank accessions, and both traits were heritable. Searches are underway for drought tolerance traits related to remobilization of stem fructans, awn photosynthesis, osmotic adjustment, and pubescence. Genetic diversity from wild relatives through the production of synthetic wheats has produced novel genetic diversity.

Tritordeum, wheat and triticale yield components under multi-local mediterranean drought conditions

The species x location interaction was of great importance in explaining the behaviour of genetic material. The study presented here shows, for the first time, the performance, under field conditions of the new tritordeum species, compared to wheat and triticale in a wide range of Mediterranean countries (Spain, Lebanon and Tunisia). The results obtained revealed that despite the diversity of environmental conditions, the main differences in yield were due to genotypes, especially to differences between species. The multi-local study with different growth conditions revealed important information about the water availability effect on yield. In the lowest yielding environments (Tunisia rainfed), Tritordeum and triticale yields were equivalent. However under better growth conditions (Spain), tritordeum yield was shown to be lower than wheat and triticale. Interestingly, when water limitation was extended during the pre-anthesis period, differences in tritordeum versus wheat-triticale yield rate were larger than when water stress occurred during anthesis. These variations were explained by the fact that kernel weight has been found as the limiting factor for yield determination in tritordeum, and a delay in the anthesis date may have been the cause for the low kernel weight and low yield under Mediterranean drought conditions. Such differences in yield between tritordeum and wheat or triticale could be explained by the fact that tritordeum is a relatively new species and far fewer resources have been devoted to its improvement when compared to wheat and triticale. Our results suggest that breeding efforts should be directed to an earlier anthesis date and a longer grain filling period. tritordeum proved to have possibilities to be grown under drought environments as a new crop, since its performance was quite close to wheat and triticale. Besides, it has qualitative added values that may improve farmers' income per unit land.

Comparison of flag leaf and ear photosynthesis with biomass and grain yield of durum wheat under various water conditions and genotypes

Photosynthetic activity of cereals has traditionally been studied using leaves, thus neglecting the role of other organs such as ears. Here, we studied the effects of water status and genotypes on the photosynthetic activity of the flag leaf blade and the ear of durum wheat. The various parameters related to the photosynthetic activity were analysed in relation to the total above-ground plant biomass and grain yield at maturity. Four local varieties plus two cultivars adapted to the semiarid areas of South Morocco were grown in pots in a greenhouse. Five different water treatments were maintained from the beginning of stem elongation to maturity, when shoot biomass and grain yield were recorded. The net photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs) and transpiration (T) of the ear and the flag leaf were measured at anthesis. In both organs these factors decreased significantly with water deficit, whereas the A/T and A/gs ratios increased. The genotype effect was also significant for all traits studied. Whole-organ photosynthesis was much higher in the ear than in the flag leaf in well-watered conditions. As water stress developed, photosynthesis decreased less in the ear than in the flag leaf. Whole-ear photosynthesis correlated better than flag leaf photosynthesis with biomass and yield. Nevertheless, the relationships of the whole flag leaf with biomass and yield improved as the water stress became more severe, suggesting a progressive shift of yield from sink to source limitation. For all water regimes the ratios A/gs and A/T of the ear also showed a higher (negative) correlation with both biomass and yield than those of the flag leaf. The results indicate that the ear has a greater photosynthetic role than the flag leaf in determining grain yield, not only in drought but also in the absence of stress.

Fifty years of wheat breeding in Southern Brazil: yield improvement and associated changes

The objective of this study was to assess the impact of genetic breeding on grain yield, and to identify the physiological traits associated to the increment in yield and their related growth processes, for wheat cultivars grown in Southern Brazil, in the past five decades. Seven wheat cultivars released between 1940 and 1992, were compared for physiological aspects associated with grain yield. Grain yield, biological yield, biomass partitioning, harvest index and grain yield components were also determined. The number of grains per square meter was more affected by plant breeding and was better correlated with grain yield (r = 0.94, p<0.01) than with grain weight (r = -0.39ns). The higher number of grains per square meter was better correlated with the number of grains per spike in the modern cultivars than in the older ones. The genetic gain in grain yield was 44.9 kg ha-1 per year, reflecting important efforts of the breeding programs carried out in Southern Brazil. Grain yield changes, during the period of study, were better associated with biomass production (r = 0.78, p<0.01) than with harvest index (r = 0.65, p<0.01).

Tolerance to preharvest sprouting and yield of wheat genotypes from different breeding programs

Abstract:The objective of this work was to characterize the performance of elite wheat genotypes from different Brazilian breeding programs for traits associated with grain yield and preharvest sprouting. The study was conducted in 2010 and 2011 in the municipality of Capão do Leão, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in a randomized complete block design with three replicates. Thirty-three wheat genotypes were evaluated for traits related to preharvest sprouting and grain yield. The estimate of genetic distance was used to predict potential combinations for selection of plants with high grain yield and tolerance to preharvest sprouting. The combined analysis of sprouted grains and falling number shows that the TBIO Alvorada, TBIO Mestre, Frontana, Fundacep Raízes, Fundacep Cristalino, and BRS Guamirim genotypes are tolerant to preharvest sprouting. Combinations of TBIO Alvorada and TBIO Mestre with Fundacep Cristalino show high potential for recovering superior genotypes for high grain yield and tolerance to preharvest sprouting.