Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

Prognostic value of TP53 Pro47Ser and Arg72Pro single nucleotide polymorphisms and the susceptibility to gliomas in individuals from Southeast Brazil

The TP53 tumor suppressor gene codifies a protein responsible for preventing cells with genetic damage from growing and dividing by blocking cell growth or apoptosis pathways. A common single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TP53 codon 72 (Arg72Pro) induces a 15-fold decrease of apoptosis-inducing ability and has been associated with susceptibility to human cancers. Recently, another TP53 SNP at codon 47 (Pro47Ser) was reported to have a low apoptosis-inducing ability; however, there are no association studies between this SNP and cancer. Aiming to study the role of TP53 Pro47Ser and Arg72Pro on glioma susceptibility and oncologic prognosis of patients, we investigated the genotype distribution of these SNPs in 94 gliomas (81 astrocytomas, 8 ependymomas and 5 oligodendrogliomas) and in 100 healthy subjects by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism approach. Chi-square and Fisher exact test comparisons for genotype distributions and allele frequencies did not reveal any significant difference between patients and control groups. Overall and disease-free survivals were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the log-rank test was used for comparisons, but no significant statistical difference was observed between the two groups. Our data suggest that TP53 Pro47Ser and Arg72Pro SNPs are not involved either in susceptibility to developing gliomas or in patient survival, at least in the Brazilian population.

Increase in the magnitude of the energy barrier distribution in Ni nanoparticles due to dipolar interactions

The energy barrier distribution E(b) of five samples with different concentrations x of Ni nanoparticles using scaling plots from ac magnetic susceptibility data has been determined. The scaling of the imaginary part of the susceptibility chi""(v, T) versus T ln (iota t/tau(0)) remains valid for all samples, which display Ni nanoparticles with similar shape and size. The mean value < E(b)> increases appreciably with increasing x, or more appropriately with increasing dipolar interactions between Ni nanoparticles. We argue that such an increase in < E(b)> constitutes a powerful tool for quality control in magnetic recording media technology where the dipolar interaction plays an important role. (c) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3533911]

A generalized modified Weibull distribution for lifetime modeling

A four parameter generalization of the Weibull distribution capable of modeling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone as well as non-monotone failure rates, which are quite common in lifetime problems and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the Weibull, extreme value, exponentiated Weibull, generalized Rayleigh and modified Weibull distributions, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. The density of the order statistics is obtained. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters. Also, the observed information matrix is obtained. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Macroscopic root water uptake distribution using a matric flux potential approach

Hydrological models featuring root water uptake usually do not include compensation mechanisms such that reductions in uptake from dry layers are compensated by an increase in uptake from wetter layers. We developed a physically based root water uptake model with an implicit compensation mechanism. Based on an expression for the matric flux potential (M) as a function of the distance to the root, and assuming a depth-independent value of M at the root surface, uptake per layer is shown to be a function of layer bulk M, root surface M, and a weighting factor that depends on root length density and root radius. Actual transpiration can be calculated from the sum of layer uptake rates. The proposed reduction function (PRF) was built into the SWAP model, and predictions were compared to those made with the Feddes reduction function (FRF). Simulation results were tested against data from Canada (continuous spring wheat [(Triticum aestivum L.]) and Germany (spring wheat, winter barley [Hordeum vulgare L.], sugarbeet [Beta vulgaris L.], winter wheat rotation). For the Canadian data, the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for water content in the upper soil layers was very similar for FRF and PRF; for the deeper layers, RMSEP was smaller for PRF. For the German data, RMSEP was lower for PRF in the upper layers and was similar for both models in the deeper layers. In conclusion, but dependent on the properties of the data sets available for testing,the incorporation of the new reduction function into SWAP was successful, providing new capabilities for simulating compensated root water uptake without increasing the number of input parameters or degrading model performance.

Analysis of pore-fluid pressure gradient and effective vertical-stress gradient distribution in layered hydrodynamic systems

A theoretical analysis is carried out to investigate the pore-fluid pressure gradient and effective vertical-stress gradient distribution in fluid saturated porous rock masses in layered hydrodynamic systems. Three important concepts, namely the critical porosity of a porous medium, the intrinsic Fore-fluid pressure and the intrinsic effective vertical stress of the solid matrix, are presented and discussed. Using some basic scientific principles, we derive analytical solutions and explore the conditions under which either the intrinsic pore-fluid pressure gradient or the intrinsic effective vertical-stress gradient can be maintained at the value of the lithostatic pressure gradient. Even though the intrinsic pore-fluid pressure gradient can be maintained at the value of the lithostatic pressure gradient in a single layer, it is impossible to maintain it at this value in all layers in a layered hydrodynamic system, unless all layers have the same permeability and porosity simultaneously. However, the intrinsic effective vertical-stress gradient of the solid matrix can be maintained at a value close to the lithostatic pressure gradient in all layers in any layered hydrodynamic system within the scope of this study.

Increasingly inequitable distribution of general practitioners in Australia, 1986-96

Objective: To document trends in the distribution of general practitioners (GPs) in Australia between 1986 and 1996, adjusted for community need. Methods: Data on the location of GPs, population size and crude mortality in statistical divisions (SD) were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing in 1986 and 1996. From these data, we calculated measures of distribution equality (number of people sharing each GP in each SD) and distribution equity (number of people sharing each GP divided by the crude mortality rate; the Robin Hood Index), and analysed temporal changes in the distribution of GPs. Results: Nationally the number of people sharing each GP fell 11% from 1,038 in 1986 to 921 in 1996. However, in 41 of 57 SDs (72%, p=0.01) the number of people sharing a GP actually increased over this time, and the average Robin Hood Index across SDs fell from 0.943 to 0.783 (p=0.004), indicating increasingly inequitable distribution. Comparing the Robin Hood index values of all SDs ranked in pairs, the value fell in 53 of 57 (93%, p<0.001) paired SDs over the decade. These patterns demonstrate increasing inequity over the decade. The number of people sharing each GP was consistently and substantially lower in the capital city SDs and the Robin Hood Index values were consistently and substantially higher (overserved) compared with country SDs. Conclusions: Despite there being more GPs per capita in Australia, their distribution became increasingly unequal and inequitable between 1986 and 1996, such that rural and remote areas became increasingly poorly served.

Capnography reflects ventilation/perfusion distribution in a model of acute lung injury

Background Changes in the shape of the capnogram may reflect changes in lung physiology. We studied the effect of different ventilation/perfusion ratios (V/Q) induced by positive end-expiratory pressures (PEEP) and lung recruitment on phase III slope (S(III)) of volumetric capnograms. Methods Seven lung-lavaged pigs received volume control ventilation at tidal volumes of 6 ml/kg. After a lung recruitment maneuver, open-lung PEEP (OL-PEEP) was defined at 2 cmH(2)O above the PEEP at the onset of lung collapse as identified by the maximum respiratory compliance during a decremental PEEP trial. Thereafter, six distinct PEEP levels either at OL-PEEP, 4 cmH(2)O above or below this level were applied in a random order, either with or without a prior lung recruitment maneuver. Ventilation-perfusion distribution (using multiple inert gas elimination technique), hemodynamics, blood gases and volumetric capnography data were recorded at the end of each condition (minute 40). Results S(III) showed the lowest value whenever lung recruitment and OL-PEEP were jointly applied and was associated with the lowest dispersion of ventilation and perfusion (Disp(R-E)), the lowest ratio of alveolar dead space to alveolar tidal volume (VD(alv)/VT(alv)) and the lowest difference between arterial and end-tidal pCO(2) (Pa-ETCO(2)). Spearman`s rank correlations between S(III) and Disp(R-E) showed a =0.85 with 95% CI for (Fisher`s Z-transformation) of 0.74-0.91, P < 0.0001. Conclusion In this experimental model of lung injury, changes in the phase III slope of the capnograms were directly correlated with the degree of ventilation/perfusion dispersion.

The history and value of the elephant in Sri Lankan society

Reviews the literature to provide an overview of the historical significance of the elephant in Sri Lankan society, an association which dates back more than 4,000 years. The present status of this relationship assessed on the basis of the findings of a recent study undertaken on the total economic value of elephants in Sri Lanka. This paper, first briefly outlines the history, evolution, nature and their distribution of the Asian elephant while providing some insights on the status of the elephant (Elephas maxima maxima) in Sri Lanka. Next, it reviews the literature in order to assess the historical affiliation that the elephant has maintained with the Sri Lankan society, its culture, history, mythology and religion. The empirical evidence on the economic value of conservation of the remaining elephant population in Sri Lanka is reviewed and the Sri Lankan people’s attitudes towards conserving this species of wildlife. Literature reviewed and analysis undertaken indicates that the elephant in Sri Lanka, still, as in the past has a special place in Sri Lankan society, particularly, in its culture, religion and value system. Thus, there is a strong case for ensuring the survival of wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it also suggests that the community as a whole will experience a net benefit from ensuring the survival of wild elephants in Sri Lanka.

RFID together with multi-agent systems to control global value chains

Nowadays, the cooperative intelligent transport systems are part of a largest system. Transportations are modal operations integrated in logistics and, logistics is the main process of the supply chain management. The supply chain strategic management as a simultaneous local and global value chain is a collaborative/cooperative organization of stakeholders, many times in co-opetition, to perform a service to the customers respecting the time, place, price and quality levels. The transportation, like other logistics operations must add value, which is achieved in this case through compression lead times and order fulfillments. The complex supplier's network and the distribution channels must be efficient and the integral visibility (monitoring and tracing) of supply chain is a significant source of competitive advantage. Nowadays, the competition is not discussed between companies but among supply chains. This paper aims to evidence the current and emerging manufacturing and logistics system challenges as a new field of opportunities for the automation and control systems research community. Furthermore, the paper forecasts the use of radio frequency identification (RFID) technologies integrated into an information and communication technologies (ICT) framework based on distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) supported by a multi-agent system (MAS), as the most value advantage of supply chain management (SCM) in a cooperative intelligent logistics systems. Logistical platforms (production or distribution) as nodes of added value of supplying and distribution networks are proposed as critical points of the visibility of the inventory, where these technological needs are more evident.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

Study of distribution network demand response events in the Portuguese system

In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. Grid operators and utilities are taking new initiatives, recognizing the value of demand response for grid reliability and for the enhancement of organized spot markets’ efficiency. This paper proposes a methodology for the selection of the consumers that participate in an event, which is the responsibility of the Portuguese transmission network operator. The proposed method is intended to be applied in the interruptibility service implemented in Portugal, in convergence with Spain, in the context of the Iberian electricity market. This method is based on the calculation of locational marginal prices (LMP) which are used to support the decision concerning the consumers to be schedule for participation. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated in this paper using a 937 bus distribution network with more than 20,000 consumers.

Contribution of traffic and tobacco smoke in the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons on outdoor and indoor PM2.5

Traffic emissions and tobacco smoke are considered two main sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in indoor and outdoor air. In this study, the impact of these sources on the level of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and on the distribution of 15 PAHs regarded as priority pollutants by the US-EPA on PM2.5 were evaluated and compared. Outdoor and indoor PM2.5 samples were collected during winter 2008 in Oporto city in Portugal, for sampling periods of 12 and 24 hours, respectively. The outdoor PM2.5 were sampled at one site directly influenced by traffic emissions and the indoor PM2.5 samples were collected at one home directly influenced by tobacco smoke and another one without smoke. A methodology based on microwave-assisted extraction and liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection was applied for the efficient PAHs determination in indoor and outdoor PM2.5. PAHs in indoor PM2.5 concentrations were significantly influenced by the presence of traffic and tobacco smoking emissions. The mean of ΣPAHs in the outdoor traffic PM2.5 was not significantly different from the value attained in the indoor without smoking site. The tobacco smoke increased significantly PAHs concentrations on average about 1000 times more, when compared with the outdoor profile samples suggesting that tobacco smoking may be the most important source of indoor PAHs pollution.