The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Illicit cigarette consumption and government revenue loss in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Illicit cigarettes comprise more than 11% of tobacco consumption and 17% of consumption in low- and middle-income countries. Illicit cigarettes, defined as those that evade taxes, lower consumer prices, threaten national tobacco control efforts, and reduce excise tax collection. METHODS: This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette consumption within Indonesia using two methods: the discrepancies between legal cigarette sales and domestic consumption estimated from surveys, and discrepancies between imports recorded by Indonesia and exports recorded by trade partners. Smuggling plays a minor role in the availability of illicit cigarettes because Indonesians predominantly consume kreteks, which are primarily manufactured in Indonesia. RESULTS: Looking at the period from 1995 to 2013, illicit cigarettes first emerged in 2004. When no respondent under-reporting is assumed, illicit consumption makes up 17% of the domestic market in 2004, 9% in 2007, 11% in 2011, and 8% in 2013. Discrepancies in the trade data indicate that Indonesia was a recipient of smuggled cigarettes for each year between 1995 and 2012. The value of this illicit trade ranges from less than $1 million to nearly $50 million annually. Singapore, China, and Vietnam together accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade discrepancies over the period. Tax losses due to illicit consumption amount to between Rp 4.1 and 9.3 trillion rupiah, 4% to 13% of tobacco excise revenue, in 2011 and 2013. CONCLUSIONS: Due to the predominance of kretek consumption in Indonesia and Indonesia's status as the predominant producer of kreteks, illicit domestic production is likely the most important source for illicit cigarettes, and initiatives targeted to combat this illicit production carry the promise of the greatest potential impact.

Empirical measurement of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines.

Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.

Accuracy of Death Certificates in COPD: Analysis from the TORCH Trial

The Towards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) trial was an international clinical trial of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients where cause of death was assigned by an independent committee. Comparison of death certificate data and adjudicated cause of death allows a unique opportunity to determine death certificate accuracy and frequency of COPD listing on death certificates of COPD patients. In this analysis, the authors determine the concordance between adjudicated cause of death and primary and secondary cause of death from death certificates. In 317 (80%) of informative deaths, the primary or secondary cause of death from certificates agreed with adjudicated cause of death. Only 229 (58%) of death certificates in these COPD patients listed COPD on the certificate. COPD was not listed on the death certificate in 21% of deaths adjudicated to be caused by COPD exacerbation. Compared with pulmonary causes, the listing of COPD on certificates occurred with less frequency than cardiovascular, cancer and other categories of death. The combined primary and secondary listing on death certificates has good concordance with actual cause of death. COPD is under-reported on death certificates, and this under-reporting is more frequent when the primary cause of death is not pulmonary.

Exploratory Space-Time Analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km). Conclusions/Significance: The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread. © 2012 Métras et al.

Fabricated or Induced Illness in Children: A Narrative Review of the Literature

Although child maltreatment due to abuse or neglect is pervasive within our society, less
is known about fabricated or induced illness by carers (FII), which is considered to be a
rare form of child abuse. FII occurs when a caregiver (in 93% of cases, the mother)
misrepresents the child as ill either by fabricating, or much more rarely, producing
symptoms and then presenting the child for medical care, disclaiming knowledge of the
cause of the problem. The growing body of literature on FII reflects the lack of clarity
amongst professionals as to what constitutes FII, the difficulties involved in diagnosis,
and the lack of research into psychotherapeutic intervention with perpetrators. This lack
of clarity further complicates the identification, management and treatment of children
suffering from FII and may result in many cases going undetected, with potentially lifethreatening
consequences for children. It has been suggested that there is a national
under-reporting of fabricated or induced illness. In practice these cases are encountered
more frequently due to the chronic nature of the presentations, the large number of
professionals who may be involved and the broad spectrum including milder cases that
may not all require a formal child protection response. Diagnosis of fabricated disease
can be especially difficult, because the reported signs and symptoms cannot be confirmed
(when they are being exaggerated or imagined) or may be inconsistent (when they are
induced or fabricated). This paper highlights and discusses the controversies and
complexities of this condition, the risks to the child and how it affects children; the
paucity of systematic research regarding what motivates mothers to harm their children
by means of illness falsification; how the condition should be managed and treated for
both mother and child; and implications for policy and practice.

Sexual Violence Beyond all Reasonable Doubt

Establishing the pattern of crime is fundamental for the successful investigation ofinternational crimes (genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity). A patternof crime is the aggregate of multiple incidents that share common features related tothe victims, the perpetrators, and the modus operandi. Pattern evidence and analysishave been used successfully, mainly in the investigation of large-scale killings, destruction,and displacement; the use for sexual violence charges has been remarkablymore limited. There is a need to overcome this gap by setting proper methods of datacollection and analysis. At the level of evidence collection, under-reporting should beaddressed through victimization surveys or secondary analysis of data available fromdifferent sources. At the level of analysis, the available evidence needs to be subject toimpartial examination beyond the pre-conceptions of the conflict parties and advocacygroups, in compliance with scientific standards for quantitative, qualitative, andGIS (Geographic Information Systems)methods. Reviewing the different investigativeexperiences and jurisprudence will help to set the right methodology and contribute mostefficiently to putting an end to the impunity regarding sexual crimes.

Changes in the intestinal microbiota after a short period of dietary over-indulgence, representative of a holiday or festival season

The effects on the intestinal microbiota of a short period of marginal over-eating, characteristic of holiday or festival periods, were investigated in a pilot study. Fourteen healthy male subjects consumed a diet rich in animal protein and fat for seven days. During this period, the subjects significantly increased their dietary energy, protein, carbohydrate and fat intakes by 56, 59, 53 and 58%, respectively (all P < 0.05). The mean weight gain of 0.27 kg was less than the expected 1 kg, but this was consistent with a degree of under-reporting on the baseline diet. Fluorescence in situ hybridisation analysis confirmed the relative stability of each individual’s faecal microbiota but showed considerable variations between them. The diet was associated with a significant increase in numbers of total faecal bacteria and the bacteroides group, as detected by the universal bacterial probe (DAPI) and Bacteroides probe (Bac 303), respectively. Overall, there was a decrease in numbers of the Lactobacillus/Enterococcus group (Lab 158 probe; 2.8 ± 3.0% to 1.8 ± 1.8%) and the Bifidobacterium group (Bif 164 probe; 3.0 ± 3.7% to 1.7 ± 1.2%), although there was considerable inter-individual variation. Analysis of the relative proportions of each bacterial group as a percentage of the subject’s total bacteria showed a trend for a change in the intestinal microbiota that might be considered potentially unhealthy.

The resident assessment instrument-minimum data set 2.0 quality indicators : a systematic review

Background
The Resident Assessment Instrument-Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS) 2.0 is designed to collect the minimum amount of data to guide care planning and monitoring for residents in long-term care settings. These data have been used to compute indicators of care quality. Use of the quality indicators to inform quality improvement initiatives is contingent upon the validity and reliability of the indicators. The purpose of this review was to systematically examine published and grey research reports in order to assess the state of the science regarding the validity and reliability of the RAI-MDS 2.0 Quality Indicators (QIs).

Methods
We systematically reviewed the evidence for the validity and reliability of the RAI-MDS 2.0 QIs. A comprehensive literature search identified relevant original research published, in English, prior to December 2008. Fourteen articles and one report examining the validity and/or reliability of the RAI-MDS 2.0 QIs were included.

Results
The studies fell into two broad categories, those that examined individual quality indicators and those that examined multiple indicators. All studies were conducted in the United States and included from one to a total of 209 facilities. The number of residents included in the studies ranged from 109 to 5758. One study conducted under research conditions examined 38 chronic care QIs, of which strong evidence for the validity of 12 of the QIs was found. In response to these findings, the 12 QIs were recommended for public reporting purposes. However, a number of observational studies (n=13), conducted in "real world" conditions, have tested the validity and/or reliability of individual QIs, with mixed results. Ten QIs have been studied in this manner, including falls, depression, depression without treatment, urinary incontinence, urinary tract infections, weight loss, bedfast, restraint, pressure ulcer, and pain. These studies have revealed the potential for systematic bias in reporting, with under-reporting of some indicators and over-reporting of others.

Conclusion
Evidence for the reliability and validity of the RAI-MDS QIs remains inconclusive. The QIs provide a useful tool for quality monitoring and to inform quality improvement programs and initiatives. However, caution should be exercised when interpreting the QI results and other sources of evidence of the quality of care processes should be considered in conjunction with QI results.

Recruitment into diabetes prevention programs : what is the impact of errors in self-reported measures of obesity?

Background
Error in self-reported measures of obesity has been frequently described, but the effect of self-reported error on recruitment into diabetes prevention programs is not well established. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of using self-reported obesity data from the Finnish diabetes risk score (FINDRISC) on recruitment into the Greater Green Triangle Diabetes Prevention Project (GGT DPP).

Methods
The GGT DPP was a structured group-based lifestyle modification program delivered in primary health care settings in South-Eastern Australia. Between 2004–05, 850 FINDRISC forms were collected during recruitment for the GGT DPP. Eligible individuals, at moderate to high risk of developing diabetes, were invited to undertake baseline tests, including anthropometric measurements performed by specially trained nurses. In addition to errors in calculating total risk scores, accuracy of self-reported data (height, weight, waist circumference (WC) and Body Mass Index (BMI)) from FINDRISCs was compared with baseline data, with impact on participation eligibility presented.

Results
Overall, calculation errors impacted on eligibility in 18 cases (2.1%). Of n = 279 GGT DPP participants with measured data, errors (total score calculation, BMI or WC) in self-report were found in n = 90 (32.3%). These errors were equally likely to result in under- or over-reported risk. Under-reporting was more common in those reporting lower risk scores (Spearman-rho = −0.226, p-value < 0.001). However, underestimation resulted in only 6% of individuals at high risk of diabetes being incorrectly categorised as moderate or low risk of diabetes.

Conclusions
Overall FINDRISC was found to be an effective tool to screen and recruit participants at moderate to high risk of diabetes, accurately categorising levels of overweight and obesity using self-report data. The results could be generalisable to other diabetes prevention programs using screening tools which include self-reported levels of obesity.

Incidence of bladder cancer in Sri Lanka : analysis of the cancer registry data and review of the incidence of bladder cancer in the South Asian population

PurposeTo investigate the incidence of bladder cancer (BC) in Sri Lanka and to compare risk factors and outcomes with those of other South Asian nations and South Asian migrants to the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US).Materials and MethodsThe incidence of BC in Sri Lanka was examined by using two separate cancer registry databases over a 5-year period. Smoking rates were compiled by using a population-based survey from 2001 to 2009 and the relative risk was calculated by using published data.ResultsA total of 637 new cases of BC were diagnosed over the 5-year period. Sri Lankan BC incidence increased from 1985 but remained low (1.36 and 0.3 per 100,000 in males and females) and was similar to the incidence in other South Asian countries. The incidence was lower, however, than in migrant populations in the US and the UK. In densely populated districts of Sri Lanka, these rates almost doubled. Urothelial carcinoma accounted for 72%. The prevalence of male smokers in Sri Lanka was 39%, whereas Pakistan had higher smoking rates with a 6-fold increase in BC.ConclusionsSri Lankan BC incidence was low, similar to other South Asian countries (apart from Pakistan), but the actual incidence is likely higher than the cancer registry rates. Smoking is likely to be the main risk factor for BC. Possible under-reporting in rural areas could account for the low rates of BC in Sri Lanka. Any genetic or environmental protective effects of BC in South Asians seem to be lost on migration to the UK or the US and with higher levels of smoking, as seen in Pakistan.

Effects of persisting emotional impact from child abuse and norepinephrine transporter genetic variation on antidepressant efficacy in major depression: a pilot study

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies suggest child abuse and serotonergic polymorphism influence depression susceptibility and antidepressant efficacy. Polymorphisms of the norepinephrine transporter (NET) may also be involved. Research in the area is possibly clouded by under reporting of abuse in researcher trials. METHODS: Adults (n=51) with major depressive disorder has 8 weeks treatment with escitalopram or venlafaxine. Abuse history was obtained, the ongoing emotional impact of which was measured with the 15-item impact of event scale (IES-15). The 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) was applied serially. Two NET polymorphisms (rs2242446 and rs5569) were assayed, blinded to HDRS ratings and abuse history. RESULTS: No subjects reporting abuse with high impact in adulthood (IES-15 ≥26, n=12) remitted; whereas 77% reporting low impact (IES-15 <26; n=26) remitted (p<0.001). Subjects reporting high impact abuse (n=12) had a 50-fold (95% confidence interval=4.85-514.6) greater odds of carrying rs2242446-TT genotype, but the small sample size leaves this finding vulnerable to type I error. CONCLUSIONS: The level of persisting impact of child abuse appears relevant to antidepressant efficacy, with susceptibility to such possibly being influence by NET rs2242446 polymorphism. Larger studies may be merited to expand on this pilot level finding given potential for biomarker utility.

Empirical evidence of recall bias for primary health care visits

BACKGROUND: While it is common for an economic evaluation of health care to rely on trial participants for self-reported health service utilisation, there is variability in the accuracy of this data due to potential recall bias. The aim of this study was to quantify the level of recall bias in self-reported primary health care general practitioner (GP) visits following inpatient rehabilitation over a 12 month period.

METHODS: This report is a secondary analysis from a larger randomised control trial of an economic evaluation of additional Saturday inpatient rehabilitation. Participants were adults who had been discharged into the community following admission to an acute general rehabilitation hospital. Participants were asked to recall primary health care visits, including community GP visits, via a telephone questionnaire which was administered at 6 and 12 months following discharge from inpatient rehabilitation. Participants were asked to recall health service utilisation over each preceding 6 month period. The self-reported data were compared to equivalent claims data from the national insurer, over the same period.

RESULTS: 751 participants (75% of the full trial) with a mean age of 74 years (SD 13) were included in this analysis. Over the 12 month period following discharge from rehabilitation there was an under-reporting of 14% in self-reported health service utilisation for GP visits compared to national insurer claims data over the same period. From 0 to 6 months following discharge from rehabilitation, there was an over-reporting of self-reported GP visits of 35% and from 7 to 12 months there was an under-reporting of self-reported GP visits of 36%, compared to national insurer claims data over the same period. 46% of patients reported the same or one number difference in self-reported GP visits between the 0 to 6 and the 7 to 12 month periods.

CONCLUSION: Based on these findings we recommend that an economic evaluation alongside a clinical trial for an elderly adult rehabilitation population include a sensitivity analysis that inflates self-reported GP visits by 16% over 12 months. However caution is required when utilising self-reported GP visits as the data may contain periods of both over and under reporting. Where general practitioner visits are expected to vary significantly between intervention and control groups we recommend that administrative data be included in the trial to accurately capture resources for an economic evaluation.

Um breve estudo acerca do cotidiano do trabalho de produtores rurais: intoxicações por agrotóxicos e subnotificação

Pesquisas na área da Saúde no Trabalho têm revelado a preocupação com os agravos à saúde de trabalhadores rurais decorrentes da utilização de defensivos agrícolas. Diante disso, este estudo objetivou conhecer o cotidiano de trabalho de produtores rurais de uma cooperativa agrícola localizada no interior do estado de São Paulo, bem como avaliar a exposição deles quando da utilização de agrotóxicos no desenvolvimento de suas atividades. Esperamos, com base nos resultados, estar contribuindo com discussões sobre o tema relacionado à saúde dos trabalhadores no contexto considerado. Para coleta de dados, utilizamos entrevistas semi-estruturadas, aplicadas de formas individual e coletiva. Participaram do estudo cinqüenta produtores rurais que desenvolvem atividades nas lavouras de café, soja, trigo e milho. Os dados foram agrupados em cinco categorias e analisados qualitativamente. Os resultados expõem as características da atividade agrícola na região, a utilização dos equipamentos de proteção individual, as técnicas no uso dos agrotóxicos, o sofrimento psíquico e a produção rural e maneiras de lidar com as situações de intoxicação e alertar os órgãos competentes para o problema da subnotificação.

Doenças de Veiculação Hídrica em Trechos da Bacia do Rio Piranhas-Assu: ocorrência de bactérias oportunistas, caracterização epidemiológica e concepções de professores e agentes de saúde

Water is essential to life and all living organisms and their supply is necessary for economic development and quality of life of human populations, but their quality has been altered by human actions. In semi-arid northeast, the water is an issue of concern, especially its quality. This region is common to the construction of reservoirs that capture rain water, streams and temporary rivers in search of ease this situation, being intended for various purposes. Water scarcity is a limiting factor for the economic and social development of the region and contributes to the maintenance of waterborne diseases. About 80% of diseases that occur in developing countries are infected by waterborne pathogens. Therefore, this study aimed to determine in two environments that are part of semilênticos Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves reservoir, and a stretch of the river Assu, all located in the semiarid RN, the occurrence of opportunistic pathogenic bacteria; check the conceptions of teachers and health workers about the issues "waterborne diseases" and "bacteria" and a diagnosis of diarrheal diseases that affect the population in some municipalities of the semi-arid region of RN from a survey of epidemiological data. For identification of bacteria using commercial kits and the diagnosis of diarrheal disease was based on information from databases. The previous conceptions of teachers and health workers were obtained through questionnaires. The results confirmed the presence of opportunistic bacteria in the studied area, showing the importance of monitoring water quality. There was an under-reporting of cases of diarrhea pointing out flaws in the monitoring of Diarrheal Diseases and indicating the need to improve it. It was felt also the need to implement educational activities on topics dealt with both with teachers and health workers, since they were identified misconceptions on the subject