Indirect certainty equivalents for the firm facing price and production uncertainty

Producer decisionmaking under uncertainty is characterized using indirect objective functions. The characterization is for the class of producers with continuous and nondecreasing preferences over stochastic incomes who face both price and production uncertainty. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Generic delimitation and phylogenetic uncertainty: An example from a group that has undergone an explosive radiation

Phylogenetic trees can provide a stable basis for a higher-level classification of organisms that reflects evolutionary relationships. However, some lineages have a complex evolutionary history that involves explosive radiation or hybridisation. Such histories have become increasingly apparent with the use of DNA sequence data for phylogeny estimation and explain, in part, past difficulties in producing stable morphology-based classifications for some groups. We illustrate this situation by using the example of tribe Mirbelieae (Fabaceae), whose generic classification has been fraught for decades. In particular, we discuss a recent proposal to combine 19 of the 25 Mirbelieae genera into a single genus, Pultenaea sens. lat., and how we might find stable and consistent ways to squeeze something as complex as life into little boxes for our own convenience. © CSIRO.

Overshadowing in conditioned taste aversion or in conditioned emotional response after neonatal ventral hippocampal lesions in rats

The neonatal hippocampus lesion thought to model schizophrenia should show the same modifications in behavioural tests as other models, especially pharmacological models. namely decreased latent inhibition, blocking and overshadowing. The present study is set out to evaluate overshadowing in order to complement our previous studies, which had tested latent inhibition. ""Overshadowing"" refers to the decreased conditioning that occurs when the to-be-conditioned stimulus is combined with another stimulus at the conditioning stage. We used the same two Pavlovian conditioning paradigms as in our previous works, namely conditioned taste aversion (CTA) and conditioned emotional response (CER). A sweet taste overshadowed a salty conditioned stimulus, and a tone overshadowed a flashing light. Totally different stimuli were used to counter possible sensory biases. The protocols were validated with two groups of Sprague Dawley rats. The same two protocols were then applied to a cohort of rats whose ventral hippocampus had been destroyed when they were 7 days old. Only rats with extended ventral hippocampus lesions were included. The overall effect of Pavlovian conditioning was attenuated, significantly so in the conditioned emotional response paradigm, but overshadowing appeared not to be modified in either the conditioned emotional response or the conditioned taste aversion paradigm. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategic trade policy under uncertainty: Sufficient conditions for the optimality of ad valorem, specific and quadratic trade taxes

In most previous work on strategic trade policy the form of government intervention has been prescribed in advance. In this paper, we apply a solution concept discussed by Klemperer and Meyer for games in which the strategy space consists of the class of all (non state-contingent) price quantity schedules. We examine a series of specific assumptions on demand and supply conditions and derive the associated equilibrium trade policies. We derive welfare implications for all cases examined.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Food aversion: A critical balance between allergen-specific IgE levels and taste preference

Animals sensitized to allergens change their feeding behavior and avoid drinking the otherwise preferred sweetened solutions containing the allergens. This phenomenon, known as food aversion, appears to be mediated by allergen-specific IgE antibodies. Here we investigated food aversion in BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice, which differ in their allergic responses to the allergen ovalbumin as well as in their preference for sweet taste. BALB/c mice present higher levels of IgE and a natural lower preference for sweet flavors when compared to C57BL/6 mice. Specifically, we studied a conflicting situation in which animals simultaneously experienced the aversive contact with the allergen and the attractive sweet taste of increasing concentrations of sucrose. We found that BALB/c mice were more prone to develop food aversion than C57BL/6 mice and that this aversive behavior could be abolished in both strains by increasing the palatability of the solution containing the allergen. In both strains food aversion was positively correlated with the levels of allergen-specific IgE antibodies and inversely correlated with their preference for sucrose sweetened solutions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pharmacological Manipulation of Immune-Induced Food Aversion in Rats

Background: Mice allergic to ovalbumin (OVA) avoid drinking a solution containing this antigen. This was interpreted as related to IgE-dependent mast cell degranulation and sensory C fiber activation. Methods: We employed pharmacological manipulation to further investigate the mediators involved in immune-induced food aversion. Results: While nonimmunized rats preferred a sweetened OVA solution, immunized rats avoided it. We also employed a paradigm in which rats are conditioned to drink water for two 10-min sessions a day. Tolerant rats presented lower IgE titers, and this manipulation abrogated food aversion. Dexamethasone (1.0 mg/kg) prevented the aversion of OVA-immunized rats to the antigen-containing solution. Combined blockade of H(1) and 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)(2) receptors by promethazine (3.0 mg/kg) plus methysergide (5.0 mg/kg) was unable to alter food aversion. Blockade of 5-HT(3) receptors by ondansetron (1.0 mg/kg) caused a twofold increase in the ingestion of the sweetened OVA solution by immunized rats, suggesting the involvement of 5-HT(3) receptors in food aversion. Finally, we showed that dexamethasone or promethazine plus methysergide, but not ondansetron, effectively prevented the IgE-dependent mast-cell-degranulation-induced increase in vascular permeability in rats. Conclusion: We suggest that regardless of whether or not they cause edema, IgE-mediated mast cell degranulation and consequent 5-HT(3) signaling are involved in the process that triggers avoidance to the source of the allergen in allergic rats. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?