IUTAM Symposium on the Vibration Analysis of Structures with Uncertainties

The Symposium was aimed at the theoretical and numerical problems involved in modelling the dynamic response of structures which have uncertain properties due ...

The vibro-acoustic analysis of built-up systems using a hybrid method with parametric and non-parametric uncertainties

An existing hybrid finite element (FE)/statistical energy analysis (SEA) approach to the analysis of the mid- and high frequency vibrations of a complex built-up system is extended here to a wider class of uncertainty modeling. In the original approach, the constituent parts of the system are considered to be either deterministic, and modeled using FE, or highly random, and modeled using SEA. A non-parametric model of randomness is employed in the SEA components, based on diffuse wave theory and the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE), and this enables the mean and variance of second order quantities such as vibrational energy and response cross-spectra to be predicted. In the present work the assumption that the FE components are deterministic is relaxed by the introduction of a parametric model of uncertainty in these components. The parametric uncertainty may be modeled either probabilistically, or by using a non-probabilistic approach such as interval analysis, and it is shown how these descriptions can be combined with the non-parametric uncertainty in the SEA subsystems to yield an overall assessment of the performance of the system. The method is illustrated by application to an example built-up plate system which has random properties, and benchmark comparisons are made with full Monte Carlo simulations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the uncertainties in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for UK wheat ethanol

Biofuels are increasingly promoted worldwide as a means for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. However, current regulatory frameworks and most academic life cycle analyses adopt a deterministic approach in determining the GHG intensities of biofuels and thus ignore the inherent risk associated with biofuel production. This study aims to develop a transparent stochastic method for evaluating UK biofuels that determines both the magnitude and uncertainty of GHG intensity on the basis of current industry practices. Using wheat ethanol as a case study, we show that the GHG intensity could span a range of 40-110 gCO2e MJ-1 when land use change (LUC) emissions and various sources of uncertainty are taken into account, as compared with a regulatory default value of 44 gCO2e MJ-1. This suggests that the current deterministic regulatory framework underestimates wheat ethanol GHG intensity and thus may not be effective in evaluating transport fuels. Uncertainties in determining the GHG intensity of UK wheat ethanol include limitations of available data at a localized scale, and significant scientific uncertainty of parameters such as soil N2O and LUC emissions. Biofuel polices should be robust enough to incorporate the currently irreducible uncertainties and flexible enough to be readily revised when better science is available. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

CLF based designs with robustness to dynamic input uncertainties

The problem of robust stabilization of nonlinear systems in the presence of input uncertainties is of great importance in practical implementation. Stabilizing control laws may not be robust to this type of uncertainty, especially if cancellation of nonlinearities is used in the design. By exploiting a connection between robustness and optimality, "domination redesign" of the control Lyapunov function (CLF) based Sontag's formula has been shown to possess robustness to static and dynamic input uncertainties. In this paper we provide a sufficient condition for the domination redesign to apply. This condition relies on properties of local homogeneous approximations of the system and of the CLF. We show that an inverse optimal control law may not exist when these conditions are violated and illustrate how these conditions may guide the choice of a CLF which is suitable for domination redesign. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Uncertainties Caused by the Forward Scattering in Turbidity Measurement of the Coagulation Rate

The forward scattering light (FSL) received by the detector can cause uncertainties in turbidity measurement of the coagulation rate of colloidal dispersion, and this effect becomes more significant for large particles. In this study, the effect of FSL is investigated on the basis of calculations using the T-matrix method, an exact technique for the computation of nonspherical scattering. The theoretical formulation and relevant numerical implementation for predicting the contribution of FSL in the turbidity measurement is presented. To quantitatively estimate the degree of the influence of FSL, an influence ratio comparing the contribution of FSL to the pure transmitted light in the turbidity measurement is introduced. The influence ratios evaluated under various parametric conditions and the relevant analyses provide a guideline for properly choosing particle size, measuring wavelength to minimize the effect of FSL in turbidity measurement of coagulation rate.

The influence and chronological uncertainties of the 8.2 ka cooling event on continental climate records in China

IEECAS SKLLQG

Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change-food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at I-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

I Cannot Tell: Edward Thomas's Uncertainties

Poster, Jeremy, 'I Cannot Tell: Edward Thomas's Uncertainties', In: 'Branch-Lines: Edward Thomas and Contemporary Poetry', Guy Cuthbertson & Lucy Newlyn (eds), (London: Enitharmon Press), pp.264, 2007 RAE2008