Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Carbon dioxide emissions from diesel and compressed natural gas buses during acceleration

Motor vehicle emission factors are generally derived from driving tests mimicking steady state conditions or transient drive cycles. However, neither of these test conditions completely represents real world driving conditions. In particular, they fail to determine emissions generated during the accelerating phase – a condition in which urban buses spend much of their time. In this study we analyse and compare the results of time-dependant emission measurements conducted on diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) buses during an urban driving cycle on a chassis dynamometer and we derive power-law expressions relating carbon dioxide (CO2) emission factors to the instantaneous speed while accelerating from rest. Emissions during acceleration are compared with that during steady speed operation. These results have important implications for emission modelling particularly under congested traffic conditions.

Volatile properties of particles emitted by compressed natural gas and diesel buses during steady state and transient driving modes

Volatile properties of particle emissions from four compressed natural gas (CNG) and four diesel buses were investigated under steady state and transient driving modes on a chassis dynamometer. The exhaust was diluted utilising a full-flow continuous volume sampling system and passed through a thermodenuder at controlled temperature. Particle number concentration and size distribution were measured with a condensation particle counter and a scanning mobility particle sizer, respectively. We show that, while almost all the particles emitted by the CNG buses were in the nanoparticle size range, at least 85% and 98% were removed at 100ºC and 250ºC, respectively. Closer analysis of the volatility of particles emitted during transient cycles showed that volatilisation began at around 40°C with the majority occurring by 80°C. Particles produced during hard acceleration from rest exhibited lower volatility than that produced during other times of the cycle. Based on our results and the observation of ash deposits on the walls of the tailpipes, we suggest that these non-volatile particles were composed mostly of ash from lubricating oil. Heating the diesel bus emissions to 100ºC removed ultrafine particle numbers by 69% to 82% when a nucleation mode was present and just 18% when it was not.

Steady state and transient dynamometer vehicle emission measurements using a DiSC

Analysis of the particulate size and number concentration emissions from a fleet of inner city medium duty CNG buses was conducted using the newly available Diffusion Size Classifier in comparison with more traditional SMPS's and CPC's. Studies were conducted at both steady state and transient driving modes on a vehicle dynamometer utilising a CVS dilution system. Comparative analysis of the results showed that the DiSC provided equivalent information during steady state conditions and was able to provide additional information during transient conditions, namely, the modal diameter of the particle size distribution.

Pattern visual evoked potentials in dyslexic versus normal children

Purpose: Presence of neurophysiological abnormalities in dyslexia has been a conflicting issue. This study was performed to evaluate the role of sensory visual deficits in the pathogenesis of dyslexia. Methods: Pattern visual evoked potentials (PVEP) were recorded in 72 children including 36 children with dyslexia and 36 children without dyslexia (controls) who were matched for age, sex and intelligence. Two check sizes of 15 and 60 min of arc were used with temporal frequencies of 1.5 Hz for transient and 6 Hz for steady‑state methods. Results: Mean latency and amplitude values for 15 min arc and 60 min arc check sizes using steady state and transient methods showed no significant difference between the two study groups (P values: 0.139/0.481/0.356/0.062).Furthermore, no significant difference was observed between two methods of PVEPs in dyslexic and normal children using 60min arc with high contrast(Pvalues: 0.116, 0.402, 0.343 and 0.106). Conclusion: The sensitivity of PVEP has high validity to detect visual deficits in children with dyslexic problem. However, no significant difference was found between dyslexia and normal children using high contrast stimuli.

Measurements of triggering and transient growth in a model lean-premixed gas turbine combustor

Instability triggering and transient growth of thermoacoustic oscillations were experimentally investigated in combination with linear/nonlinear flame transfer function (FTF) methodology in a model lean-premixed gas turbine combustor operated with CH 4 and air at atmospheric pressure. A fully premixed flame with 10kW thermal power and an equivalence ratio of 0.60 was chosen for detailed characterization of the nonlinear transient behaviors. Flame transfer functions were experimentally determined by simultaneous measurements of inlet velocity fluctuations and heat release rate oscillations using a constant temperature anemometer and OH */CH * chemiluminescence emissions, respectively. The phase-resolved variation of the local flame structure at a limit cycle was measured by planar laser-induced fluorescence of OH. Simultaneous measurements of inlet velocity, OH */CH * emission, and acoustic pressure were performed to investigate the temporal evolution of the system from a stable to a limit cycle operation. This measurement allows us to describe an unsteady instability triggering event in terms of several distinct stages: (i) initiation of a small perturbation, (ii) exponential amplification, (iii) saturation, (iv) nonlinear evolution of the perturbations towards a new unstable periodic state, (v) quasi-steady low-amplitude periodic oscillation, and (vi) fully-developed high-amplitude limit cycle oscillation. Phase-plane portraits of instantaneous inlet velocity and heat release rate clearly show the presence of two different attractors. Depending on its initial position in phase space at infinitesimally small amplitude, the system evolves towards either a high-amplitude oscillatory state or a low-amplitude oscillatory state. This transient phenomenon was analyzed using frequency- and amplitude-dependent damping mechanisms, and compared to subcritical and supercritical bifurcation theories. The results presented in this paper experimentally demonstrate the hypothesis proposed by Preetham et al. based on analytical and computational solutions of the nonlinear G-equation [J. Propul. Power 24 (2008) 1390-1402]. Good quantitative agreement was obtained between measurements and predictions in terms of the conditions for the onset of triggering and the amplitude of triggered combustion instabilities. © 2011 The Combustion Institute.

Study of steady state and transient EGR behaviour of a medium duty diesel engine

It is well known that accurate EGR control is paramount to controlling engine out emissions during steady state and transient operation of a diesel engine. The direct measurement of EGR is however non-trivial and especially difficult in engines with no external EGR control where the intake manifold CO2 levels can be measured more readily. This work studies the EGR behaviour in a medium duty diesel engine with a passive EGR rebreathing strategy for steady state and transient operation. High speed (response time ∼1ms) in-cylinder sampling using modified GDI valves is coupled with high frequency response analysers to measure the cyclic in-cylinder CO2, from which the EGR rate is deduced. It was found that controlling the EGR using the passive rebreathing strategy during certain combined speed and load transients is challenging, causing high smoke and NO emissions. The in-cylinder sampling method coupled with fast CO2 measurement (time constant ∼8ms) in the exhaust port gave insights about the EGR rate during these transients. The complex interaction of the manifold pressures, turbo-charger operation and trapped charge composition from the previous cycle simply can cause high dilution and therefore high smoke levels. The steady state variation of NO emissions with respect to EGR is also studied using a fast NO analyzer (time constant ∼2ms) in the exhaust port. Cyclic variation was found to be up to ±5% at some load conditions. © 2008 SAE International.

Particulate matter emission during start-up and transient operation of a spark-ignition engine

In order to understand why emissions of Particulate Matter (PM) from Spark-Ignition (SI) automobiles peak during periods of transient operation such as rapid accelerations, a study of controlled, repeatable transients was performed. Time-resolved engine-out PM emissions from a modern four-cylinder engine during transient load and air/fuel ratio operation were examined, and the results could be fit in most cases to a first order time response. The time constants for the transient response are similar to those measured for changes in intake valve temperature, reflecting the strong dependence of PM emissions on the amount of liquid fuel in the combustion chamber. In only one unrepeatable case did the time response differ from a first order function: showing an overshoot in PM emissions during transition from the initial to the final steady state PM emission level. PM emissions during controlled, motored start-up experiments show a peak at start-up followed by a period during which emissions are either relatively constant or drift somewhat. When the fuel injection and ignition are shut off, PM emissions also peak briefly, but rapidly decay to low levels. Qualitative implications on the study and modeling of PM emissions during transient engine operation are discussed. Copyright © 1999 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Application of auto-associative neural networks to transient fault detection in an IC engine

The tailpipe emissions from automotive engines have been subject to steadily reducing legislative limits. This reduction has been achieved through the addition of sub-systems to the basic four-stroke engine which thereby increases its complexity. To ensure the entire system functions correctly, each system and / or sub-systems needs to be continuously monitored for the presence of any faults or malfunctions. This is a requirement detailed within the On-Board Diagnostic (OBD) legislation. To date, a physical model approach has been adopted by me automotive industry for the monitoring requirement of OBD legislation. However, this approach has restrictions from the available knowledge base and computational load required. A neural network technique incorporating Multivariant Statistical Process Control (MSPC) has been proposed as an alternative method of building interrelationships between the measured variables and monitoring the correct operation of the engine. Building upon earlier work for steady state fault detection, this paper details the use of non-linear models based on an Auto-associate Neural Network (ANN) for fault detection under transient engine operation. The theory and use of the technique is shown in this paper with the application to the detection of air leaks within the inlet manifold system of a modern gasoline engine whilst operated on a pseudo-drive cycle. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.

Acetaminophen, via its reactive metabolite N-acetyl-p-benzo-quinoneimine and transient receptor potential ankyrin-1 stimulation, causes neurogenic inflammation in the airways and other tissues in rodents

Acetaminophen [N-acetyl-p-aminophenol (APAP)] is the most common antipyretic/analgesic medicine worldwide. If APAP is overdosed, its metabolite, N-acetyl-p-benzo-quinoneimine (NAPQI), causes liver damage. However, epidemiological evidence has associated previous use of therapeutic APAP doses with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma. The transient receptor potential ankyrin-1 (TRPA1) channel is expressed by peptidergic primary sensory neurons. Because NAPQI, like other TRPA1 activators, is an electrophilic molecule, we hypothesized that APAP, via NAPQI, stimulates TRPA1, thus causing airway neurogenic inflammation. NAPQI selectively excites human recombinant and native (neuroblastoma cells) TRPA1. TRPA1 activation by NAPQI releases proinflammatory neuropeptides (substance P and calcitonin gene-related peptide) from sensory nerve terminals in rodent airways, thereby causing neurogenic edema and neutrophilia. Single or repeated administration of therapeutic (15-60 mg/kg) APAP doses to mice produces detectable levels of NAPQI in the lung, and increases neutrophil numbers, myeloperoxidase activity, and cytokine and chemokine levels in the airways or skin. Inflammatory responses evoked by NAPQI and APAP are abated by TRPA1 antagonism or are absent in TRPA1-deficient mice. This novel pathway, distinguished from the tissue-damaging effect of NAPQI, may contribute to the risk of COPD and asthma associated with therapeutic APAP use.-Nassini, R., Materazzi, S., Andre, E., Sartiani, L., Aldini, G., Trevisani, M., Carnini, C., Massi, D., Pedretti, P., Carini, M., Cerbai, E., Preti, D., Villetti, G., Civelli, M., Trevisan, G., Azzari, C., Stokesberry, S., Sadofsky, L., McGarvey, L., Patacchini, R., Geppetti, P. Acetaminophen, via its reactive metabolite N-acetyl-p-benzo-quinoneimine and transient receptor potential ankyrin-1 stimulation causes neurogenic inflammation in the airways and other tissues in rodents. FASEB J. 24, 4904-4916 (2010). www.fasebj.org

Transient receptor potential ankyrin 1 channel localized to non-neuronal airway cells promotes non-neurogenic inflammation

The transient receptor potential ankyrin 1 (TRPA1) channel, localized to airway sensory nerves, has been proposed to mediate airway inflammation evoked by allergen and cigarette smoke (CS) in rodents, via a neurogenic mechanism. However the limited clinical evidence for the role of neurogenic inflammation in asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease raises an alternative possibility that airway inflammation is promoted by non-neuronal TRPA1.

Modelling of Ultraviolet and Vissible Emissions in Comets

Comets are the spectacular objects in the night sky since the dawn of mankind. Due to their giant apparitions and enigmatic behavior, followed by coincidental calamities, they were termed as notorious and called as `bad omens'. With a systematic study of these objects modern scienti c community understood that these objects are part of our solar system. Comets are believed to be remnant bodies of at the end of evolution of solar system and possess the material of solar nebula. Hence, these are considered as most pristine objects which can provide the information about the conditions of solar nebula. These are small bodies of our solar system, with a typical size of about a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers orbiting the Sun in highly elliptical orbits. The solid body of a comet is nucleus which is a conglomerated mixture of water ice, dust and some other gases. When the cometary nucleus advances towards the Sun in its orbit the ices sublimates and produces the gaseous envelope around the nucleus which is called coma. The gravity of cometary nucleus is very small and hence can not in uence the motion of gases in the cometary coma. Though the cometary nucleus is a few kilometers in size they can produce a transient, extensive, and expanding atmosphere with size several orders of magnitude larger in space. By ejecting gas and dust into space comets became the most active members of the solar system. The solar radiation and the solar wind in uences the motion of dust and ions and produces dust and ion tails, respectively. Comets have been observed in di erent spectral regions from rocket, ground and space borne optical instruments. The observed emission intensities are used to quantify the chemical abundances of di erent species in the comets. The study of various physical and chemical processes that govern these emissions is essential before estimating chemical abundances in the coma. Cameron band emission of CO molecule has been used to derive CO2 abundance in the comets based on the assumption that photodissociation of CO2 mainly produces these emissions. Similarly, the atomic oxygen visible emissions have been used to probe H2O in the cometary coma. The observed green ([OI] 5577 A) to red-doublet emission ([OI] 6300 and 6364 A) ratio has been used to con rm H2O as the parent species of these emissions. In this thesis a model is developed to understand the photochemistry of these emissions and applied to several comets. The model calculated emission intensities are compared with the observations done by space borne instruments like International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and also by various ground based telescopes.

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Climate–carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO2 emitted does not depend on the background CO2 concentration2; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions3, 4, 5; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO2 is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries3, 6, 7, 8. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon–climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0–2.1 °C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate–carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO2 emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate–carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate–carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO2-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle

The time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is studied using a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs are prescribed for the past (1860–1990) and projected into the future according to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a. In addition, the space–time distribution of tropospheric ozone is prescribed, and the tropospheric sulfur cycle is calculated within the coupled model using sulfur emissions of the past and projected into the future (IS92a). The radiative impact of the aerosols is considered via both the direct and the indirect (i.e., through cloud albedo) effect. It is shown that the simulated trend in sulfate deposition since the end of the last century is broadly consistent with ice core measurements, and the calculated radiative forcings from preindustrial to present time are within the uncertainty range estimated by IPCC. Three climate perturbation experiments are performed, applying different forcing mechanisms, and the results are compared with those obtained from a 300-yr unforced control experiment. As in previous experiments, the climate response is similar, but weaker, if aerosol effects are included in addition to greenhouse gases. One notable difference to previous experiments is that the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not fundamentally affected by the inclusion of aerosol effects. Although the monsoon is damped compared to a greenhouse gas only experiment, it is still more vigorous than in the control experiment. This different behavior, compared to previous studies, is the result of the different land–sea distribution of aerosol forcing. Somewhat unexpected, the intensity of the global hydrological cycle becomes weaker in a warmer climate if both direct and indirect aerosol effects are included in addition to the greenhouse gases. This can be related to anomalous net radiative cooling of the earth’s surface through aerosols, which is balanced by reduced turbulent transfer of both sensible and latent heat from the surface to the atmosphere.