Contributions of vision-proprioception interactions to the estimation of time-varying hand and target locations

We investigated the relative importance of vision and proprioception in estimating target and hand locations in a dynamic environment. Subjects performed a position estimation task in which a target moved horizontally on a screen at a constant velocity and then disappeared. They were asked to estimate the position of the invisible target under two conditions: passively observing and manually tracking. The tracking trials included three visual conditions with a cursor representing the hand position: always visible, disappearing simultaneously with target disappearance, and always invisible. The target’s invisible displacement was systematically underestimated during passive observation. In active conditions, tracking with the visible cursor significantly decreased the extent of underestimation. Tracking of the invisible target became much more accurate under this condition and was not affected by cursor disappearance. In a second experiment, subjects were asked to judge the position of their unseen hand instead of the target during tracking movements. Invisible hand displacements were also underestimated when compared with the actual displacement. Continuous or brief presentation of the cursor reduced the extent of underestimation. These results suggest that vision–proprioception interactions are critical for representing exact target–hand spatial relationships, and that such sensorimotor representation of hand kinematics serves a cognitive function in predicting target position. We propose a hypothesis that the central nervous system can utilize information derived from proprioception and/or efference copy for sensorimotor prediction of dynamic target and hand positions, but that effective use of this information for conscious estimation requires that it be presented in a form that corresponds to that used for the estimations.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.

Fuzzy logic traffic control at a road junction with time-varying flow rates

Fuzzy logic has been applied to control traffic at road junctions. A simple controller with one fixed rule-set is inadequate to minimise delays when traffic flow rate is time-varying and likely to span a wide range. To achieve better control, fuzzy rules adapted to the current traffic conditions are used.

Time-varying bispectral analysis of auditory evoked multi-channel scalp EEG

Time-varying bispectra, computed using a classical sliding window short-time Fourier approach, are analyzed for scalp EEG potentials evoked by an auditory stimulus and new observations are presented. A single, short duration tone is presented from the left or the right, direction unknown to the test subject. The subject responds by moving the eyes to the direction of the sound. EEG epochs sampled at 200 Hz for repeated trials are processed between -70 ms and +1200 ms with reference to the stimulus. It is observed that for an ensemble of correctly recognized cases, the best matching timevarying bispectra at (8 Hz, 8Hz) are for PZ-FZ channels and this is also largely the case for grand averages but not for power spectra at 8 Hz. Out of 11 subjects, the only exception for time-varying bispectral match was a subject with family history of Alzheimer’s disease and the difference was in bicoherence, not biphase.

Time-varying bispectral analysis of visually evoked multi-channel EEG

Theoretical foundations of higher order spectral analysis are revisited to examine the use of time-varying bicoherence on non-stationary signals using a classical short-time Fourier approach. A methodology is developed to apply this to evoked EEG responses where a stimulus-locked time reference is available. Short-time windowed ensembles of the response at the same offset from the reference are considered as ergodic cyclostationary processes within a non-stationary random process. Bicoherence can be estimated reliably with known levels at which it is significantly different from zero and can be tracked as a function of offset from the stimulus. When this methodology is applied to multi-channel EEG, it is possible to obtain information about phase synchronization at different regions of the brain as the neural response develops. The methodology is applied to analyze evoked EEG response to flash visual stimulii to the left and right eye separately. The EEG electrode array is segmented based on bicoherence evolution with time using the mean absolute difference as a measure of dissimilarity. Segment maps confirm the importance of the occipital region in visual processing and demonstrate a link between the frontal and occipital regions during the response. Maps are constructed using bicoherence at bifrequencies that include the alpha band frequency of 8Hz as well as 4 and 20Hz. Differences are observed between responses from the left eye and the right eye, and also between subjects. The methodology shows potential as a neurological functional imaging technique that can be further developed for diagnosis and monitoring using scalp EEG which is less invasive and less expensive than magnetic resonance imaging.

Locally weighted learning model predictive control for nonlinear and time varying dynamics

This paper proposes an online learning control system that uses the strategy of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in a model based locally weighted learning framework. The new approach, named Locally Weighted Learning Model Predictive Control (LWL-MPC), is proposed as a solution to learn to control robotic systems with nonlinear and time varying dynamics. This paper demonstrates the capability of LWL-MPC to perform online learning while controlling the joint trajectories of a low cost, three degree of freedom elastic joint robot. The learning performance is investigated in both an initial learning phase, and when the system dynamics change due to a heavy object added to the tool point. The experiment on the real elastic joint robot is presented and LWL-MPC is shown to successfully learn to control the system with and without the object. The results highlight the capability of the learning control system to accommodate the lack of mechanical consistency and linearity in a low cost robot arm.

Hip and knee kinematics display complex and time-varying sagittal kinematics during repetitive stepping: Implications for design of a functional fatigue model of the knee extensors and flexors

The validity of fatigue protocols involving multi-joint movements, such as stepping, has yet to be clearly defined. Although surface electromyography can monitor the fatigue state of individual muscles, the effects of joint angle and velocity variation on signal parameters are well established. Therefore, the aims of this study were to i) describe sagittal hip and knee kinematics during repetitive stepping ii) identify periods of high inter-trial variability and iii) determine within-test reliability of hip and knee kinematic profiles. A group of healthy men (N = 15) ascended and descended from a knee-high platform wearing a weighted vest (10%BW) for 50 consecutive trials. The hip and knee underwent rapid flexion and extension during step ascent and descent. Variability of hip and knee velocity peaked between 20-40% of the ascent phase and 80-100% of the descent. Significant (p<0.05) reductions in joint range of motion and peak velocity during step ascent were observed, while peak flexion velocity increased during descent. Healthy individuals use complex hip and knee motion to negotiate a knee-high step with kinematic patterns varying across multiple repetitions. These findings have important implications for future studies intending to use repetitive stepping as a fatigue model for the knee extensors and flexors.

Convergence-guaranteed time-varying RRT path planning for profiling floats in 4-Dimensional flow

This paper presents an extension to the Rapidly-exploring Random Tree (RRT) algorithm applied to autonomous, drifting underwater vehicles. The proposed algorithm is able to plan paths that guarantee convergence in the presence of time-varying ocean dynamics. The method utilizes 4-Dimensional, ocean model prediction data as an evolving basis for expanding the tree from the start location to the goal. The performance of the proposed method is validated through Monte-Carlo simulations. Results illustrate the importance of the temporal variance in path execution, and demonstrate the convergence guarantee of the proposed methods.

Predictive motion planning for AUVs subject to strong time-varying currents and forecasting uncertainties

This paper presents a novel path planning method for minimizing the energy consumption of an autonomous underwater vehicle subjected to time varying ocean disturbances and forecast model uncertainty. The algorithm determines 4-Dimensional path candidates using Nonlinear Robust Model Predictive Control (NRMPC) and solutions optimised using A*-like algorithms. Vehicle performance limits are incorporated into the algorithm with disturbances represented as spatial and temporally varying ocean currents with a bounded uncertainty in their predictions. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated through simulations using a 4-Dimensional, spatially distributed time-series predictive ocean current model. Results show the combined NRMPC and A* approach is capable of generating energy-efficient paths which are resistant to both dynamic disturbances and ocean model uncertainty.

Unsteady-Flow Of A Viscous-Fluid Between 2 Parallel Disks With A Time-Varying Gap Width And A Magnetic-Field

The unsteady incompressible viscous fluid flow between two parallel infinite disks which are located at a distance h(t*) at time t* has been studied. The upper disk moves towards the lower disk with velocity h'(t*). The lower disk is porous and rotates with angular velocity Omega(t*). A magnetic field B(t*) is applied perpendicular to the two disks. It has been found that the governing Navier-Stokes equations reduce to a set of ordinary differential equations if h(t*), a(t*) and B(t*) vary with time t* in a particular manner, i.e. h(t*) = H(1 - alpha t*)(1/2), Omega(t*) = Omega(0)(1 - alpha t*)(-1), B(t*) = B-0(1 - alpha t*)(-1/2). These ordinary differential equations have been solved numerically using a shooting method. For small Reynolds numbers, analytical solutions have been obtained using a regular perturbation technique. The effects of squeeze Reynolds numbers, Hartmann number and rotation of the disk on the flow pattern, normal force or load and torque have been studied in detail

Analysis of randomly time varying systems by gaussian closure technique

The Gaussian probability closure technique is applied to study the random response of multidegree of freedom stochastically time varying systems under non-Gaussian excitations. Under the assumption that the response, the coefficient and the excitation processes are jointly Gaussian, deterministic equations are derived for the first two response moments. It is further shown that this technique leads to the best Gaussian estimate in a minimum mean square error sense. An example problem is solved which demonstrates the capability of this technique for handling non-linearity, stochastic system parameters and amplitude limited responses in a unified manner. Numerical results obtained through the Gaussian closure technique compare well with the exact solutions.

On various types of decoupling for time-varying system

This paper deals with the problem of decoupling a class of linear time-varying multi-variable systems, based on the defining property that the impulse response matrix of a decoupled system is diagonal. Depending on the properties of the coefficient matrices of the vector differential equation of the open-loop system, the system may be uniformly or totally decoupled. The necessary and sufficient conditions that permit a system to be uniformly or totally decoupled by state variable feedback are given. The main contribution of this paper is the precise definition of these two classes of decoupling and a rigorous derivation of the necessary and sufficient conditions which show the necessity of requiring that the system be of constant ordered rank with respect to observability. A simple example illustrates the importance of having several definitions of decoupling. Finally, the results are specialized to the case of time invariant systems.

A differential transformation technique for the analysis of a class of non-linear time varying systems

The scope of the differential transformation technique, developed earlier for the study of non-linear, time invariant systems, has been extended to the domain of time-varying systems by modifications to the differential transformation laws proposed therein. Equivalence of a class of second-order, non-linear, non-autonomous systems with a linear autonomous model of second order is established through these transformation laws. The feasibility of application of this technique in obtaining the response of such non-linear time-varying systems is discussed.

Asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of linear systems with time varying coefficients

Motivated by developments in spacecraft dynamics, the asymptotic behaviour and boundedness of solution of a special class of time varying systems in which each term appears as the sum of a constant and a time varying part, are analysed in this paper. It is not possible to apply standard textbook results to such systems, which are originally in second order. Some of the existing results are reformulated. Four theorems which explore the relations between the asymptotic behaviour/boundedness of the constant coefficient system, obtained by equating the time varying terms to zero, to the corresponding behaviour of the time varying system, are developed. The results show the behaviour of the two systems to be intimately related, provided the solutions of the constant coefficient system approach zero are bounded for large values of time, and the time varying terms are suitably restrained. Two problems are tackled using these theorems.