Using wildlife activity and antibiotic resistance analysis to model bacterial water quality in coastal ponds

Models that help predict fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) levels in environmental waters can be important tools for resource managers. In this study, we used animal activity along with antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA), land cover, and other variables to build models that predict bacteria levels in coastal ponds that discharge into an estuary. Photographic wildlife monitoring was used to estimate terrestrial and aquatic wildlife activity prior to sampling. Increased duck activity was an important predictor of increased FCB in coastal ponds. Terrestrial animals like deer and raccoon, although abundant, were not significant in our model. Various land cover types, rainfall, tide, solar irradiation, air temperature, and season parameters, in combination with duck activity, were significant predictors of increased FCB. It appears that tidal ponds allow for settling of bacteria under most conditions. We propose that these models can be used to test different development styles and wildlife management techniques to reduce bacterial loading into downstream shellfish harvesting and contact recreation areas.

On the relationships between the radial tidal current field and the radial sand ridges in the southern Yellow Sea: a numerical simulation

The ori-in of the radial sand ridges (RSRs) in the southern Yellow Sea has been a controversial problem since they were discovered in the early 1960s. To resolve the problem, two key questions need to be answered: (1) was the radial tidal current field in the RSR area generated by the submarine topography, or (2) did it exist before the RSRs occurred? In this study, the M-2 tide and tidal currents in the RSR area were simulated with a two-dimensional tidal model using a flat bottom and a shelving slope topography, the results being then compared with the field data. It is demonstrated that the radial tidal current field in the southern Yellow Sea is independent of bottom topography, and may thus be the controlling factor generating the RSRs. The radial tidal current field probably existed before the RSRs were formed.

Numerical simulation of tides and tidal currents in Liaodong Bay with POM

A three-dimensional ocean circulation model, called Princeton Ocean Model (POM), is employed to simulate tides and tidal currents in Liaodong Bay. The nested grid technique is adopted to improve the computation precision. Computed harmonic constants of M-1, M-2 tides at five tidal gauge stations and surface elevations at two oil platforms are compared with those observed, and show good agreements with them. Based on the calculated results, the co-amplitude and co-phase tag lines of nil and M-2 tidal constituents, the residual current field of M-2 constituent, tidal form, tidal Current ellipse and the moving style of tidal current are given. It is found that diurnal tidal constituents have no amphidromic point whereas semi-diurnal constituents have one in the region of interest. Meanwhile, some meaningful results are concluded and presented, which are conducive to a thorough knowledge of the characteristics of tides and tidal currents in the Liaodong Bay.

Mean sea surface heights of the South and East China Seas from ocean circulation model and geodetic leveling

The mean sea surface heights (sea surface topography) of the South China, East China, Yellow and Bohai Seas are derived from an ocean general circulation model and surface air pressure. The circulation model covers the global oceans, with fine grid (1/6degrees) covering the East Asian marginal seas and coarse grid (31) covering the rest part of the global oceans. The result shows that the China 1985 National Altitude Datum is 24.7 cm above the me-an sea surface height of the world oceans. The mean sea surface in the coastal ocean adjacent to China is higher in the south than in the north. Intercomparison of the model results with the geodetic leveling measurements at 28 coastal tidal stations shows a standard deviation of 4.8 cm and a fitting coefficient of 95.3%. After correction through linear regression, the standard deviation is reduced to 4.5 cm. This indicates that the accuracy of model results is sufficient for practical application. Based on the model results, the mean sea surface heights for the study area with a resolution of 1/6 degree are given. This result also links the mean sea levels at islands with those on the mainland coast and gives the mean sea surface heights at tidal stations in the Taiwan Island, the Dongsha Islands, the Yisha Islands and the Nansha Islands relative to the China 1985 National Altitude Datum.

Numerical simulation of principal tidal constituents in the South China Sea, Gulf of Tonkin and Gulf of Thailand

The principal tidal constituents M-2, S-2, K-1 and O-1 in the South China Sea, Gulf of Tonkin and Gulf of Thailand are simulated simultaneously using the numerical scheme of Kwok et al. (1995 Proceedings of the 1st Asian Computational Fluid Dynamics Conference, pp. 16-19). The average differences between the computed and observed harmonic constants are mostly within 5 cm and 10 degrees for amplitudes and phase-lags, respectively. The simulated tidal regimes in the present model are believed to be more accurate than the previous numerical results. Our studies confirm that a clockwise rotating M-2 amphidromic system lies in the southeast of the Gulf of Thailand and an S-2 amphidromic system at the near-shore area of the northeast South China Sea. The linear tidal energy equation developed by Garrett (1975 Deep-Sea Research 22, 23-35) is generalized to the nonlinear case. Based on the numerical results, the energy budgets in the South China Sea and its subareas, namely the Taiwan Strait, the Gulf of Tonkin, the Gulf of Thailand and the remaining area are investigated. The tidal motion in the Taiwan Strait is maintained mainly by the energy fluxes from the East China Sea for both semidiurnal and diurnal species and partially from the Luzon Strait for semidiurnal species. For the other parts of the South China Sea, the tidal motion is mainly maintained by the energy fluxes through the Luzon Strait. The energy inputs from the tide-generating force are negative for semidiurnal species and positive for diurnal species. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tidal current observation in the southern Yellow Sea in the summers of 2001 and 2003

Direct current observations in the Yellow Sea interior are very scarce due to intense fishing and trawling activities. Most previous studies on tides in the area were based on coastal measurements or satellite altimeter sea levels and have not been rigorously compared with direct measurements. In this paper, tidal currents are studied with current profiles from three bottom-moored Sontek Acoustic Doppler Profilers (ADPs) deployed in the southern Yellow Sea in summer of 2001 and 2003. The measured current series were dominated by tidal currents. Maximum velocities are between 40-80 cm/s at the mooring stations. M-2 current is the most dominant primary tidal constituent, while MS4 and M-4 are the most significant shallow water tides with much smaller amplitudes than the primary tides.

Numerical study on the velocity structure around tidal fronts in the Yellow Sea

The velocity components across tidal fronts are examined using the Blumberg and Mellor 3-D nonlinear numerical coastal circulation model incorporated with the Mellor and Yamada level 2.5 turbulent closure model based on the reasonable model output of the M-2 tide and density residual currents. In the numerical experiments, upwelling motion appears around all the fronts with different velocity structures, accounting for surface cold water around the fronts. The experiments also suggest that the location and formation of fronts are closely related to topography and tidal mixing, as is the velocity structure around the front.

An evaluation of remifentanil-sevoflurane response surface models in patients emerging from anesthesia: model improvement using effect-site sevoflurane concentrations.

INTRODUCTION: We previously reported models that characterized the synergistic interaction between remifentanil and sevoflurane in blunting responses to verbal and painful stimuli. This preliminary study evaluated the ability of these models to predict a return of responsiveness during emergence from anesthesia and a response to tibial pressure when patients required analgesics in the recovery room. We hypothesized that model predictions would be consistent with observed responses. We also hypothesized that under non-steady-state conditions, accounting for the lag time between sevoflurane effect-site concentration (Ce) and end-tidal (ET) concentration would improve predictions. METHODS: Twenty patients received a sevoflurane, remifentanil, and fentanyl anesthetic. Two model predictions of responsiveness were recorded at emergence: an ET-based and a Ce-based prediction. Similarly, 2 predictions of a response to noxious stimuli were recorded when patients first required analgesics in the recovery room. Model predictions were compared with observations with graphical and temporal analyses. RESULTS: While patients were anesthetized, model predictions indicated a high likelihood that patients would be unresponsive (> or = 99%). However, after termination of the anesthetic, models exhibited a wide range of predictions at emergence (1%-97%). Although wide, the Ce-based predictions of responsiveness were better distributed over a percentage ranking of observations than the ET-based predictions. For the ET-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 2 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 65% awoke within 4 min. For the Ce-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 1 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 85% awoke within 3.2 min. Predictions of a response to a painful stimulus in the recovery room were similar for the Ce- and ET-based models. DISCUSSION: Results confirmed, in part, our study hypothesis; accounting for the lag time between Ce and ET sevoflurane concentrations improved model predictions of responsiveness but had no effect on predicting a response to a noxious stimulus in the recovery room. These models may be useful in predicting events of clinical interest but large-scale evaluations with numerous patients are needed to better characterize model performance.

A Note On Tidal Asymmetry In The Severn Estuary

A one-dimensional, non-linear numerical model is used to investigate the tidally averaged frictional stress and set-up of water level due to tidal asymmetry in the Severn Estuary; these quantities depend on the overtides in the region. A linearized model of the overtides is applied to calculations of the M4 currents in order to delineate the mechanisms responsible for their generation. The relative importance of individual non-linear mechanisms to the tidally averaged stress and set-up is determined; these mechanisms are interactions between tidal flow and changes in depth or breadth over a cross-section, frictional interaction between the tidal flow and Stokes drift, interaction between the tidal fluctuations in water depth and frictional retardation and non-linear advection.

Quantifying pursuit diving seabirds' associations with fine-scale physical features in a high tidal energy environment

The rapid increase in the number of tidal stream turbine arrays will create novel and unprecedented levels of anthropogenic activity within habitats characterized by horizontal current speeds exceeding 2 ms−1. However, the potential impacts on pursuit‐diving seabirds exploiting these tidal stream environments remain largely unknown. Identifying similarities between the fine‐scale physical features (100s of metres) suitable for array installations, and those associated with foraging pursuit‐diving seabirds, could identify which species are most vulnerable to either collisions with moving components, or displacement from these installations. A combination of vessel‐based observational surveys, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model outputs and hydroacoustic seabed surveys provided concurrent measures of foraging distributions and physical characteristics at a fine temporal (15 min) and spatial (500 m) resolution across a tidal stream environment suitable for array installations, during both breeding and non‐breeding seasons. These data sets were then used to test for associations between foraging pursuit‐diving seabirds (Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica, black guillemots Cepphus grylle, common guillemots Uria aalge, European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis) and physical features. These species were associated with areas of fast horizontal currents, slow horizontal currents, high turbulence, downward vertical currents and also hard–rough seabeds. The identity and strength of associations differed among species, and also within species between seasons, indicative of interspecific and intraspecific variations in habitat use. However, Atlantic puffins were associated particularly strongly with areas of fast horizontal currents during breeding seasons, and European shags with areas of rough–hard seabeds and downward vertical currents during non‐breeding seasons. Synthesis and applications. Atlantic puffins’ strong association with fast horizontal current speeds indicates that they are particularly likely to interact with installations during breeding seasons. Any post‐installation monitoring and mitigation measures should therefore focus on this species and season. The multi‐species associations with high turbulence and downward vertical currents, which often coincide with fast horizontal current speeds, also highlight useful pre‐installation mitigation measures via the omission of devices from these areas, reducing the overall likelihood of interactions. Environmental impact assessments (EIA) generally involve once‐a‐month surveys across 2‐year periods. However, the approaches used in this study show that more focussed surveys can greatly benefit management strategies aiming to reduce the likelihood of negative impacts by facilitating the development of targeted mitigation measures. It is therefore recommended that these approaches contribute towards EIA within development sites.

Testing Tidal Turbines - Part 1: Steady Towing Tests vs Tidal Moored Tests

Tidal turbines have been tested extensively at many scales in steady state flow. Testing medium- or full-scale devices in turbulent flow has been less thoroughly examined. The differences between turbine performances in these two different states are needed for testing method verification and numerical model validation. The work in this paper documents the performance of a 1/10 scale turbine in steady state pushing tests and tidal moored tests. The overall performance of the device appears to decrease with turbulent flow, though there is increased data scatter and therefore, reduced uncertainty. At maximum power performance, as velocity increases the mechanical power and electrical power reduction from steady to unsteady flow increases. The drive train conversion efficiency also decreases. This infers that the performance for this turbine design is affected by the presence of turbulent flow.

The Ultraviolet-Bright, Slowly Declining Transient PS1-11af as a Partial Tidal Disruption Event

We present the Pan-STARRS1 discovery of the long-lived and blue transient PS1-11af, which was also detected by Galaxy Evolution Explorer with coordinated observations in the near-ultraviolet (NUV) band. PS1-11af is associated with the nucleus of an early type galaxy at redshift z = 0.4046 that exhibits no evidence for star formation or active galactic nucleus activity. Four epochs of spectroscopy reveal a pair of transient broad absorption features in the UV on otherwise featureless spectra. Despite the superficial similarity of these features to P-Cygni absorptions of supernovae (SNe), we conclude that PS1-11af is not consistent with the properties of known types of SNe. Blackbody fits to the spectral energy distribution are inconsistent with the cooling, expanding ejecta of a SN, and the velocities of the absorption features are too high to represent material in homologous expansion near a SN photosphere. However, the constant blue colors and slow evolution of the luminosity are similar to previous optically selected tidal disruption events (TDEs). The shape of the optical light curve is consistent with models for TDEs, but the minimum accreted mass necessary to power the observed luminosity is only 0.002 M, which points to a partial disruption model. A full disruption model predicts higher bolometric luminosities, which would require most of the radiation to be emitted in a separate component at high energies where we lack observations. In addition, the observed temperature is lower than that predicted by pure accretion disk models for TDEs and requires reprocessing to a constant, lower temperature. Three deep non-detections in the radio with the Very Large Array over the first two years after the event set strict limits on the production of any relativistic outflow comparable to Swift J1644+57, even if off-axis.

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with generic vertical coordinate

A three-dimensional primitive equation model and its application to a tidal estuary is described. The model solves the primitive equations for incompressible fluids with Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximations. The discretization is based on the finite volume method and allows a general vertical coordinate. The computational code is implemented in such a way that different vertical coordinates can be used in different parts of the domain. The model was designed to be able to simulate the flow both in the open ocean and in coastal and estuarine zones and can be coupled in a simple way to ecological models. The model was implemented successfully in several estuarine and coastal areas. Results are show for the Sado estuary in Portugal to illustrate model accuracy and potential. Quantitative validation is based on field data (water levels and velocities) while qualitative verification is based on the analysis of secondary flows.

Sediment dynamics and tidal inlet relocation in mixed-energy settings: the case of Ancão inlet (Algarve - Portugal)

Tese de dout., Ciências do Mar, Faculdade de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente, Univ. do Algarve, 2003

Towards a hydrodynamic operational model of the Algarve coast and St. Vincent Cape

This study attempts to implement a hydrodynamic operational model which can ultimately be used for projecting oil spill dispersal patterns and also sewage, pollution and can also be used in wave forecasting. A two layer nested model was created using MOHID Water, which is powerful ocean modelling software. The first layer (father) is used to impose the boundary conditions for the second layer (son). This was repeated for two different wind dominant regimes, Easterly and Westerly winds respectively. A qualitative comparison was done between measured tidal data and the tidal output. Sea surface temperature was also qualitatively compared with the model’s results. The results from both simulations were analysed and compared to historical literature. The comparison was done at the surface layer, 100 metre depth and at 800m depth. In the surface layer the first simulation generated an upwelling event near Cape St. Vincent and within the Algarve. The second simulation generated a non-upwelling event within which the surface was flow reversed and the warm water mass was along the Algarve coastline and evening turning clockwise around Cape St. Vincent. At the 100 metre depth for both simulations, velocity vortexes were observed near Cape St. Vincent travelling northerly and southerly at various instances. At 800metre depth a strong oceanic flow was observed moving north westerly along the continental shelf.