The exhaustion of the brazilian growth cycle

O Brasil recebeu muita atenção na última década, sua ascensão ao status de grande potência e uma das maiores economias mundiais tem sido enfatizada. No entanto, existem sinais de que essa prosperidade recente está chegando ao fim, sugerindo que houve um excesso de otimismo em relação ao aparente sucesso econômico do país e a possiblidade de crescimento contínuo. O Brasil focou na exportação de produtos primários e em um modelo de crescimento baseado no consumo, que se tornaram as locomotivas da economia. Uma pujante economia mundial demandando produtos primários e um amplo e inexplorado mercado interno ajudam a explicar o crescimento brasileiro na década passada. Não obstante, esse modelo apresenta diversas limitações. A inflação, mais uma vez, está em alta e os gargalos que impedem o desenvolvimento econômico não foram resolvidos. O objetivo desta dissertação é demonstrar que o atual ciclo de crescimento da economia brasileira está no fim. Dados de diversas fontes, nacionais e internacionais, serão usados para indicar que, novamente, o país teve um crescimento efêmero e não possui uma estrutura econômica adequada para promover o desenvolvimento de longo prazo. Uma breve análise dos fundamentos econômicos, clima de negócios e outros tópicos relacionados ao crescimento e desenvolvimento será apresentada, articulando dados e fatos para encontrar causas e explicações para a atual inversão de tendência econômica.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Tax reform under fiscal stress: a CGE analysis of the Brazilian tax reform

In spite of a general agreement over the distortion imposed by the current Brazilian tax system, attempts to reform it during the last decade have faced several restrictions to its implementation. Two of these restrictions were particular binding: a) fiscal adjustment restriction (public sector debt cannot increase), b) fiscal federalist restriction (revenues from individual states and municipalities cannot decrease). This paper focuses on a specific reform that overcomes in principle the fiscal federalist restriction. Using Auerbach and Kotlikoff (1987) model calibrated for the Brazilian economy, I analyze the short and long run macroeconomic effects of this reform subject to the fiscal adjustment restriction. Finally, I look at the redistributive effects of this reform among generations as a way to infer about public opinion’s reaction to the reform. The reform consists basically of replacing indirect taxes on corporate revenues, which I show to be equivalent to a symmetric tax on labor and capital income, by a new federal VAT. The reform presented positive macroeconomic effects both in the short and long run. Despite a substantial increase in the average VAT rate in the first years after the reform, a majority of cohorts experienced an increase in their lifetime welfare, being potentially in favour of the reform.

Financial governance: the Brazilian experience on prudential regulation and its impacts on the effects of the 2008 financial crisis

The Brazilian economy was severely hit by the 2008 crisis. In the beginning of the crisis, the vast majorities of the economic agents and authorities thought that Brazil could face some sort of decoupling since some macroeconomic fundamentals were very good. What we saw, however, was that the Brazilian economy was not decoupled, and expectations faced a huge deterioration soon after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 15th. Two aspects regarding the impact of crisis in Brazil, however, deserve a great deal of attention: (a) although deep, the impact did not last for a long time. Actually, the GDP growth experienced a good recovery in the second quarter of 2009, showing that the health of the Brazilian economy was good; (b) the Brazilian banking system performed very well during the crisis, although we cannot say the system was not in danger in the worst time of the crisis. In spite of the confidence crisis faced by the banking system 1, it showed a great deal of resilience. In this aspect, we argue that the restructure faced by the banking system in the aftermath of the Real Plan, as well as the development of a solid supervision regulation helped a lot the system to avoid the systemic crisis that was an open possibility to the Brazilian banking system in the end of 2008. These notes, thus, discusse why the Brazilian banking system performed pretty well in the 2008 financial crisis and how the Brazilian banking (and prudential) regulation can be taken as responsible for this good performance. More specifically, the paper back to the middle of the 1990s, when the Real Plan was implemented, in order to understand the role played by the restructuring of the Brazilian financial system in helping to pave the way to the great resilience experienced by the Brazilian banking system during the 2008 crisis. More specifically, the prudential regulation that was implemented in Brazil in the aftermath of the Real Plan seems to play a decisive role in the resilience of the system nowadays.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Inflation and relative prices: the Brazilian experience, 1970/79.

Based on behaviour of output growth and industrial sector prices, it tries to define the several stages comprising the cyclic trends of the Brazilian economy. Analyzes the behaviour of inflation rates and of relative prices, and shows that there is a positive association between the measures of inflation rates and of their variables as well as between both these measures and dispersion of relative price changes. Demonstrates the assymetric behaviour of relative price changes and differentiated behaviour in relative prices of farm produce and industrial products. -from Authors

The restructuring of the Brazilian industrial groups between 1980 and 1993

Includes bibliography

On the typological economy of syntactic transfer: word order and relative clause high/low attachment preference in L3 Brazilian Portuguese

One central question in the formal linguistic study of adult multilingual morphosyntax (i.e., L3/Ln acquisition) involves determining the role(s) the L1 and/or the L2 play(s) at the L3 initial state (e.g., Bardel & Falk, Second Language Research 23: 459–484, 2007; Falk & Bardel, Second Language Research: forthcoming; Flynn et al., The International Journal of Multilingualism 8: 3–16, 2004; Rothman, Second Language Research: forthcoming; Rothman & Cabrelli, On the initial state of L3 (Ln) acquisition: Selective or absolute transfer?: 2007; Rothman & Cabrelli Amaro, Second Language Research 26: 219–289, 2010). The present article adds to this general program, testing Rothman's (Second Language Research: forthcoming) model for L3 initial state transfer, which when relevant in light of specific language pairings, maintains that typological proximity between the languages is the most deterministic variable determining the selection of syntactic transfer. Herein, I present empirical evidence from the later part of the beginning stages of L3 Brazilian Portuguese (BP) by native speakers of English and Spanish, who have attained an advanced level of proficiency in either English or Spanish as an L2. Examining the related domains of syntactic word order and relative clause attachment preference in L3 BP, the data clearly indicate that Spanish is transferred for both experimental groups irrespective of whether it was the L1 or L2. These results are expected by Rothman's (Second Language Research: forthcoming) model, but not necessarily predicted by other current hypotheses of multilingual syntactic transfer; the implications of this are discussed.

The economic determinants of the Brazilian nominal term structure of interest rates

The purpose of this study is to identify the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. We estimate a near-VAR model under the identification scheme proposed by Christiano et al. (1996, 1999). The results resemble those of the US economy: monetary policy shocks that flatten the term structure of interest rates. We find that monetary policy shocks in Brazil explain a significantly larger share of the dynamics of the term structure than in the USA. Finally, we analyse the importance of standard macroeconomic variables (e. g. GDP, inflation and measure of country risk) to the dynamics of the term structure in Brazil.

A costs structure analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies

The Brazil consolidated itself as the largest world producer of sugarcane, sugar and ethanol. The creation of the Programa Nacional do Alcool - PROALCOOL and the growing use of cars with flexible motors were some of the factors that helped to motivate still more the production. Evolutions in the agricultural and industrial research did the Brazilian competitiveness in sugar and ethanol globally elevated, what is evidenced when comparing the amount produced at the country and the production costs, which turned a big one differential. Therefore, the administration of costs is of great relevance to the sugar and ethanol companies, for representing a significant rationalization in the production processes, with economy of resources and the reach of better earnings, besides reducing the operational risk pertinent at the fixed costs of production. Thus, the present work has for objective to analyze the costs structure of sugar and ethanol companies of the Center-south area of the country through an empiric-analytical study based in methodologies and concepts extracted of the costs accounting. It is verified that great part of the costs and operational expenses have variable behavior, a positive factor for the sector reducing the operational risk of the activity. The main restraint of this study is the sample of five years and 10% of the number of plants in Brazil that although they represent 30% of the national production, don`t allow the generalization of the model.

The Brazilian Business World: the difficult adaptation to globalization

The article deals with the internationalization of Brazilian businesses in the current decade. In the 1990s, Brazil embraced economic neoliberalism and promoted a huge opening up of its economy. At that time, Brazilian companies had to adapt rapidly. Twenty years later, the country has reinforced its presence in Latin America and has ensured a better position in the global markets, especially by through agricultural exports.

Brazilian external sector so far in the 21st century

Although Brazil has traditionally been characterized by a culture of inward-looking policy making, the presence of foreign firms in the Brazilian productive sector has always been significant. The share of foreign-owned firms is one of the highest that can be found among developing countries. This article discusses the main features of the external sector of the Brazilian economy, regarding trade flows, foreign investment, the internationalization of Brazilian entrepreneurial groups and the short-term financial requirements in foreign currencies

Brazilian scientific funding agency budgets have not matched the country's economic growth

The growth of the Brazilian economy in recent years has created an atmosphere of optimism in various segments of Brazilian society, with several important international repercussions. In this paper, we analyze in detail how this economic growth is reflected in investments in science and technology made by major academic funding agencies. As a result, we observed a discrepancy in the growth of funding input and the growth of the Brazilian gross domestic product. This fact associated with an increased academic output entails negative consequences for the system. This may be a symptom of an academic community not fully understood by society and vice versa. Finally, we believe that a long-lasting important change in investment policy in science is necessary in order to ensure financial security for the academic system as a whole.

The underestimated role of universities for the Brazilian system of innovation

Conventional wisdom usually underestimates the important role of public research institutes and universities in successful cases of Brazilian economy. History of science and technology institutions shows a long-term process of formation of these institutions and their interactions with industrial firms, agricultural producers or society. This paper investigates historical roots of successful cases of Brazil. First, we present the late onset of National Innovation System (NSI) institutions and waves of institutional formation in Brazil. Second, we describe the history of three selected successful cases, which spans from a low-tech sector (agriculture), a medium-tech sector (steel and special metal alloys), to a high-tech sector (aircraft). These findings present new challenges for present-day developmental policies.