Thai hedging practices post-Asian financial crisis

This paper provides survey evidence captured from a sample of 113 respondents to a 2008 questionnaire sent to 344 companies in Thailand. The study examines Thai hedging practices following the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Thai companies, like their international counterparts, rely predominantly on matching and forward contracts to hedge transaction exposure. Thai companies, however, appear to be less rigorous when it comes to internal control and supervision of derivative activity. It is recommended that Thai companies improve their risk management practices by putting into place a documented hedging policy, which includes a requirement that senior staff be actively engaged in the risk management activities of the firm.

Projetos públicos compartilhados na visão de gerentes de uma agência de fomento em infraestrutura social

O objetivo da presente dissertação é descrever, a partir da visão dos gerentes de uma agência pública de fomento de infraestrutura social; de que forma os projetos públicos compartilhados podem ser mais eficientes com a adoção de ferramentas de gerenciamento de projetos. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um estudo em três etapas: na primeira foram realizados observações e levantamento de evidências no ambiente de trabalho dos gerentes visando entender os projetos públicos compartilhados em suas circunstâncias. Na segunda etapa, foi aplicado um Survey exploratório em dois grupos: o “grupo agência”, formado apenas com gerentes da agência de fomento e o “grupo controle” composto por gerentes do setor privado e de outras empresas públicas, de modo a perceber como se comporta a opinião de cada grupo sobre os temas estudados. A terceira etapa consistiu em entrevistas abertas e semi-estruturadas com gerentes da agência de fomento, e posterior análise de conteúdo das falas, para o entendimento das questões propostas. Os resultados indicaram que: (i) o uso das ferramentas de gerenciamento aumenta a eficiência da execução dos projetos; (ii) as ferramentas utilizadas, como o Quadro Lógico e algumas ferramentas sugeridas pelo Guia PMBOK, permitiram uma visão clara dos objetivos do projeto, inclusive por parte dos parceiros regionais, além de garantir maior padronização de procedimentos; (iii) o uso da ferramenta Quadro Lógico ampliou a capacidade de mensuração dos resultados dos projetos, facilitando o seu monitoramento, e (iv) reduzindo os conflitos e a interferência política regional.

Acidentes e violência na infância: evidências do inquérito sobre atendimentos de emergência por causas externas - Brasil, 2009

Compreender as características e a magnitude das causas externas (acidentes e violência) em crianças de 0 a 9 anos de idade torna-se cada vez mais importante em Saúde Pública. O objetivo do presente artigo foi analisar os atendimentos de emergência por causas externas em crianças. Utilizaram-se dados do Sistema de Vigilância de Violências e Acidentes em Serviços Sentinelas de Urgência e Emergência (Inquérito VIVA), realizado em 74 serviços de urgência do Distrito Federal e 23 capitais no ano 2009. Analisaram-se dados de 7.123 crianças: 6.897 (96,7%) vítimas de acidentes e 226 (3,3%) de violência. Em comparação às vítimas de violência, os atendimentos por acidentes foram mais frequentes entre crianças de 2 a 5 anos, de pele branca e ocorridos no domicílio (p < 0,05). Dentre os acidentes, as quedas e queimaduras predominaram no grupo de 0 a 1 ano, enquanto os acidentes de transporte foram mais frequentes no grupo de 6 a 9 anos (p < 0,001). Quanto às violências, atendimentos por negligência e agressão física predominaram, respectivamente, nos grupos extremos de faixa etária, sendo um familiar identificado como agressor (p < 0,001). Informações sobre ocorrência de causas externas em crianças podem apoiar políticas de promoção da saúde, além de orientar profissionais de saúde, educadores e famílias na prevenção destas causas.

Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999

Survey evidence through the early 1990s generally suggests a reduction in disability in the elderly population of the United States. Because the evidence is not fully consistent, several authors have speculated about whether disability declines will continue. This paper reports results from the 1999 National Long-Term Care Survey on disability trends from 1982 through 1999. It is found that disability continued to decline in the 1994 to 1999 period, and that the decline was greater in the 1990s than in the 1980s. The disability decline from 1982 to 1989 was 0.26% per year, from 1989 to 1994 it was 0.38% per year, and from 1994 to 1999 it was 0.56% per year. In addition, disability declined by a greater percentage for blacks than for nonblacks over the 1989 to 1999 period.

Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Growth aspirations and social capital:young firms in a post-conflict environment

This article explores the growth aspirations of owners and managers of young firms in a post-conflict economy by focusing on social capital. It treats social capital as a multidimensional, multilevel phenomenon, studying the effects of discussion network characteristics, trust in institutions, generalised trust in people and local ethnic pluralism. We argue that in a post-conflict country, ethnic pluralism is indicative of local norms of tolerance towards experimentation and risk taking which support growth aspirations. It also distinguishes between the aspirations of hired managers and owners-managers. The empirical counterpart and hypotheses testing rely on survey evidence drawn from young businesses in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Local economic development initiatives and the transition from training and enterprise councils to new institutional structures in England

Current British government economic development policy emphasises regional and sub-regional scale, multi-agent initiatives that form part of national frameworks to encourage a 'bottom up' approach to economic development. An emphasis on local multi-agent initiatives was also the mission of Training and Enterprise Councils (TECs). Using new survey evidence this article tracks the progress of a number of initiatives established under the TECs, using the TEC Discretionary Fund as an example. It assesses the ability of successor bodies to be more effective in promoting local economic development. Survey evidence is used to confirm that many projects previously set up by the TECs continue to operate successfully under new partnership arrangements. However as new structures have developed, and policy has become more centralized, it is less likely that similar local initiatives will be developed in future. There is evidence to suggest that with the end of the TECs a gap has emerged in the institutional infrastructure for local economic development, particularly with regard to workforce development. Much will depend in future on how the Regional Development Agencies deploy their growing power and resources.

The roles and importance of formal and informal sources of business support in young firms : evidence from the UK’s 2008 Federation of Small Business Survey

Objectives This research explores the relationship between young firms, their growth orientation-intention and a range of relationships which can be seen to provide business support. Prior-work Research indicates that networks impact the firm’s ability to secure resources (Sirmon and Hitt 2003; Liao and Welsch. 2004; Hanlon and Saunders 2007). Networks have been evaluated in a number of ways ranging from simple counts to characteristics of their composition (Davidsson and Honig 2003), strength of relationships (Granovetter 1973) and network diversity (Carter et al 2003). By providing access to resources and knowledge (from start-up assistance and raising capital, (e.g. Smallbone et al, 2003), networks may assist in enabling continued persistence during those times where firms may experience resource constraints owing to firm growth (Baker and Nelson 2005). Approach The data used in this research was generated in the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) survey. Over 1,000 of the firms responding were found to fall into the category of “young”, ((defined as firms under 4 years old). Firms were considered the unit of analysis with the entrepreneur being the chief spokesperson for the firm. Preliminary data analysis considered key demographic characteristics and industry classifications, comparing the FSB data with that of the UK government’s own (BERR) Small Business Surveys of 2007 and 2008, to establish some degree of representativeness of the respondents. The analysis then examined networks with varying potential ability to provide support for young firms, the networks measured in terms of number, diversity, characteristic and strength in its relationship to young firm growth orientation. The diversity of business-support-related relationships ranged from friends and family, through professional services, customers and suppliers, and government business services, to trade associations and informal business networks. The characteristics of these formal and informal sources of support for new businesses are examined across a range of business support-type activities for new firms. The number of relationships and types of business support are also explored. Finally, the strength of these relationships is examined by analysis of the source of business support, type of business support, and links to the growth orientation-intention of the firm, after controlling for a number of key variables related to firm and industry status and owner characteristics. Results Preliminary analysis of the data by means of univariate analysis showed that average number of sources of advice was around 2.5 (from a potential total of 6). In terms of the diversity of relationships, universities had by far the smallest percentage of firms receiving beneficial advice from them. Government business services were beneficially used by 40% of young firms, the other relationship types being around the 50-55% mark. In terms of characteristics of the advice, the average number of areas in which benefit was achieved was around 5.5 of a maximum of 15. Start-up advice has by far the highest percentage of firms obtaining beneficial advice, with increasing sales, improving contacts and improving confidence being the other categories at or around the 50% mark. Other market-focused areas where benefits were also received were in the areas of new markets, existing product improvements and new product improvements, where around 40% of the young responding firms obtained benefit. Regression techniques evaluating the strength of these relationships in terms of the links between business support (by source of support, type of support, and range of support) and firm growth orientation-intention focus highlighted a number of significant relationships, even after controlling for a range of other explanatory variables identified in the literature. Specifically, there was found to be a positive relationship between receiving business advice generally (regardless of type or source) and growth orientation. This relationship was seen to be stronger, however, when looking at the number of types of beneficial advice received, and stronger again for the number of sources of this advice. In terms of individual sources of advice, customers and suppliers had the strongest relationship with growth, with Government business services also found to be significant. Combining these two sources was also seen to increase the strength of the relationship between these two sources of advice and growth orientation. In considering areas of support, growth was most strongly positively related to advice that benefited the development of new products and services, and also business confidence, but was negatively related to advice linked to business recovery. Finally, amalgamating the 4 key types and sources of advice to examine the impact of combinations of these types and sources of advice also improved the strength of the relationship. Implications The findings will assist in the understanding of young firms in general and growth more specifically, particularly the role and importance of specific sources, types and combinations of business support used more extensively by new young growth-oriented firms. Value This research may assist in processes designed to allow entrepreneurs to make better decisions; educators and support organizations to develop better advice and assistance, and Governments design better conditions for the creation of new growth-oriented businesses.

New and young firms Entrepreneurship policy and the role of government – evidence from the Federation of Small Businesses survey

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether new and young firms are different from older firms. This analysis is undertaken to explore general characteristics, use of external resources and growth orientation. Design/methodology/approach – Data from the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses survey provided 8,000 responses. Quantitative analysis identified significantly different characteristics of firms from 0-4, 4-9, 9-19 and 20+ years. Factor analysis was utilised to identify the advice sets, finance and public procurement customers of greatest interest, with ANOVA used to statistically compare firms in the identified age groups with different growth aspirations. Findings – The findings reveal key differences between new, young and older firms in terms of characteristics including business sector, owner/manager age, education/business experience, legal status, intellectual property and trading performance. New and young firms were more able to access beneficial resources in terms of finance and advice from several sources. New and young firms were also able to more easily access government and external finance, as well as government advice, but less able to access public procurement. Research limitations/implications – New and young firms are utilising external networks to access several resources for development purposes, and this differs for older firms. This suggests that a more explicit age-differentiated focus is required for government policies aimed at supporting firm growth. Originality/value – The study provides important baseline data for future quantitative and qualitative studies focused on the impact of firm age and government policy.

Modeling perceived influences on journalism : evidence from a cross-national survey of journalists

Surveying 1,700 journalists from seventeen countries, this study investigates perceived influences on news work. Analysis reveals a dimensional structure of six distinct domains—political, economic, organizational, professional, and procedural influences, as well as reference groups. Across countries, these six dimensions build up a hierarchical structure where organizational, professional, and procedural influences are perceived as more powerful limits to journalists' work than political and economic influences.

Journalists in times of change : Evidence from a new survey of Australia’s journalistic workforce

Studies of journalists’ professional views have a long history in many countries around the globe. This has been no less the case in Australia, where a number of surveys of journalists have been conducted, particularly in recent years. Yet, the only study so far able to lay claim to having studied a representative sample with a small error margin remains Henningham’s account of Australian journalists in the early 1990s. Clearly, Australian journalism has experienced a vast array of changes since that time, and it is crucial to provide a more up-to-date image of the profession. This study, based on telephone surveys with 605 Australian journalists, demonstrates some significant changes in the workforce. Journalists are now older, better educated, more experienced and arguably more left-leaning than 20 years ago. For the first time, women are in a majority, but are still disadvantaged. Journalists’ job satisfaction and ethical views are also discussed.

Australian journalism students' motivations and job expectations : evidence from a survey across six universities

The value of tertiary journalism education is an often hotly-debated topic among journalism educators and in the industry. Yet, the voices of students are often not heard in these debates. For example, we know relatively little about why young people actually decide to study journalism, what area of journalism they want to work in and what they are looking for in a job. To shed more light on the student perspective, this paper reports on a survey of 320 undergraduate journalism students at six Australian universities. The results show that only a minority actually want to work in news journalism, while most prefer entertainment-focussed areas. Students are motivated mainly by a love for writing and because they like journalism as a profession. In terms of job characteristics, they are particularly interested in their own career progression, but also in the extent to which they can provide a public service.

What determines weight loss behaviour and body weight satisfaction in Australia? Evidence from the HILDA survey

This thesis undertakes an empirical investigation to identify factors that influence the decision to undertake weight loss behaviour using the nationally representative HILDA dataset. Although many factors influenced the decision, the findings suggested that body weight satisfaction was the greatest determinant of weight loss dieting. This thesis therefore conducted a further empirical study to analyse the determinants of body weight satisfaction. A rank-hypothesis was found to better predict variation in body weight satisfaction levels than the absolute value of the individual's Body Mass Index (BMI) or the relative-norm hypothesis, which are commonly reported in the literature.

Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.