A continuous time model for election timing

We consider a continuous time model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an early election. Our model is based on the two-party-preferred data that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition over time. We describe the poll process by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and use a martingale approach to derive a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for the government’s expected remaining life in office. A comparison is made between a three-year and a four-year maximum term and we also provide the exercise boundary for calling an election. Impacts on changes in parameters in the SDE, the probability of winning the election and maximum terms on the call exercise boundaries are discussed and analysed. An application of our model to the Australian Federal Election for House of Representatives is also given.

Oxygen delivery through high-flow nasal cannulae increase end-expiratory lung volume and reduce respiratory rate in post-cardiac surgical patients

Background: High-flow nasal cannulae (HFNC) create positive oropharyngeal airway pressure but it is unclear how their use affects lung volume. Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) allows assessment of changes in lung volume by measuring changes in lung impedance. Primary objectives were to investigate the effects of HFNC on airway pressure (Paw) and end-expiratory lung volume (EELV), and to identify any correlation between the two. Secondary objectives were to investigate the effects of HFNC on respiratory rate (RR), dyspnoea, tidal volume and oxygenation; and the interaction between body mass index (BMI) and EELV. Methods: Twenty patients prescribed HFNC post-cardiac surgery were investigated. Impedance measures, Paw, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, RR and modified Borg scores were recorded first on low flow oxygen (nasal cannula or Hudson face mask) and then on HFNC. Results: A strong and significant correlation existed between Paw and end-expiratory lung impedance (EELI) (r=0.7, p<0.001). Compared with low flow oxygen, HFNC significantly increased EELI by 25.6% (95% CI 24.3, 26.9) and Paw by 3.0 cmH2O (95% CI 2.4, 3.7). RR reduced by 3.4 breaths per minute (95% CI 1.7, 5.2) with HFNC use, tidal impedance variation increased by 10.5% (95% CI 6.1, 18.3) and PaO2/FiO2 ratio improved by 30.6 mmHg (95% CI 17.9, 43.3). HFNC improved subjective dyspnoea scoring (p=0.023). Increases in EELI were significantly influenced by BMI, with larger increases associated with higher BMIs (p<0.001). Conclusions: This study suggests that HFNC improve dyspnoea and oxygenation by increasing both EELV and tidal volume, and are most beneficial in patients with higher BMIs.

Effects of surgical joint destabilization on load sharing between ligamentous structures in the thoracic spine : a finite element investigation

Background: In vitro investigations have demonstrated the importance of the ribcage in stabilising the thoracic spine. Surgical alterations of the ribcage may change load-sharing patterns in the thoracic spine. Computer models are used in this study to explore the effect of surgical disruption of the rib-vertebrae connections on ligament load-sharing in the thoracic spine. Methods: A finite element model of a T7-8 motion segment, including the T8 rib, was developed using CT-derived spinal anatomy for the Visible Woman. Both the intact motion segment and the motion segment with four successive stages of destabilization (discectomy and removal of right costovertebral joint, right costotransverse joint and left costovertebral joint) were analysed for a 2000Nmm moment in flexion/extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. Joint rotational moments were compared with existing in vitro data and a detailed investigation of the load sharing between the posterior ligaments carried out. Findings: The simulated motion segment demonstrated acceptable agreement with in vitro data at all stages of destabilization. Under lateral bending and axial rotation, the costovertebral joints were of critical importance in resisting applied moments. In comparison to the intact joint, anterior destabilization increases the total moment contributed by the posterior ligaments. Interpretation: Surgical removal of the costovertebral joints may lead to excessive rotational motion in a spinal joint, increasing the risk of overload and damage to the remaining ligaments. The findings of this study are particularly relevant for surgical procedures involving rib head resection, such as some techniques for scoliosis deformity correction.

Timing of births and endometrial cancer risk in Swedish women

While a protective long-term effect of parity on endometrial cancer risk is well established, the impact of timing of births is not fully understood. We examined the relationship between endometrial cancer risk and reproductive characteristics in a population-based cohort of 2,674,465 Swedish women, 20–72 years of age. During follow-up from 1973 through 2004, 7,386 endometrial cancers were observed. Compared to uniparous women, nulliparous women had a significantly elevated endometrial cancer risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22–1.42). Endometrial cancer risk decreased with increasing parity; compared to uniparous women, women with ≥4 births had a HR=0.66 (95% CI, 0.59–0.74); p-trend < 0.001. Among multiparous women, we observed no relationship of risk with age at first birth after adjustment for other reproductive factors. While we initially observed a decreased risk with later ages at last birth, this appeared to reflect a stronger relationship with time since last birth, with women with shorter times being at lowest risk. In models for multiparous women that included number of births, age at first and last birth, and time since last birth, age at last birth was not associated with endometrial cancer risk, while shorter time since last birth and increased parity were associated with statistically significantly reduced endometrial cancer risks. The HR was 3.95 (95%CI; 2.17–7.20; p-trend=<0.0001) for women with ≥25 years since a last birth compared to women having given birth within 4 years. Our findings support that clearance of initiated cells during delivery may be important in endometrial carcinogenesis. Keywords: endometrial carcinoma, parity, registry, reproductive factors

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.

Risk factors to predict the incidence of surgical adverse events following open or laparoscopic surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer: results from a randomised controlled trial

Aims: To identify risk factors for major Adverse Events (AEs) and to develop a nomogram to predict the probability of such AEs in individual patients who have surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer. Methods: We used data from 753 patients who were randomized to either total laparoscopic hysterectomy or total abdominal hysterectomy in the LACE trial. Serious adverse events that prolonged hospital stay or postoperative adverse events (using common terminology criteria 3+, CTCAE V3) were considered major AEs. We analyzed pre-surgical characteristics that were associated with the risk of developing major AEs by multivariate logistic regression. We identified a parsimonious model by backward stepwise logistic regression. The six most significant or clinically important variables were included in the nomogram to predict the risk of major AEs within 6 weeks of surgery and the nomogram was internally validated. Results: Overall, 132 (17.5%) patients had at least one major AE. An open surgical approach (laparotomy), higher Charlson’s medical co-morbidities score, moderately differentiated tumours on curettings, higher baseline ECOG score, higher body mass index and low haemoglobin levels were associated with AE and were used in the nomogram. The bootstrap corrected concordance index of the nomogram was 0.63 and it showed good calibration. Conclusions: Six pre-surgical factors independently predicted the risk of major AEs. This research might form the basis to develop risk reduction strategies to minimize the risk of AEs among patients undergoing surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer.

Improved surgical safety after laparoscopic compared to open surgery for apparent early stage endometrial cancer : results from a randomised controlled trial

AIM: To compare Total Laparoscopic Hysterectomy (TLH) and Total Abdominal Hysterectomy (TAH) with regard to surgical safety. METHODS: Between October 2005 and June 2010, 760 patients with apparent early stage endometrial cancer were enroled in a multicentre, randomised clinical trial (LACE) comparing outcomes following TLH or TAH. The main study end points for this analysis were surgical adverse events (AE), hospital length of stay, conversion from laparoscopy to laparotomy, including 753 patients who completed at least 6 weeks of follow-up. Postoperative AEs were graded according to Common Toxicity Criteria (V3), and those immediately life-threatening, requiring inpatient hospitalisation or prolonged hospitalisation, or resulting in persistent or significant disability/incapacity were regarded as serious AEs. RESULTS: The incidence of intra-operative AEs was comparable in either group. The incidence of post-operative AE CTC grade 3+ (18.6% in TAH, 12.9% in TLH, p 0.03) and serious AE (14.3% in TAH, 8.2% in TLH, p 0.007) was significantly higher in the TAH group compared to the TLH group. Mean operating time was 132 and 107 min, and median length of hospital stay was 2 and 5 days in the TLH and TAH group, respectively (p<0.0001). The decline of haemoglobin from baseline to day 1 postoperatively was 2g/L less in the TLH group (p 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to TAH, TLH is associated with a significantly decreased risk of major surgical AEs. A laparoscopic surgical approach to early stage endometrial cancer is safe.

Realistic irrigation visualization in a surgical wound debridement simulator

Wound debridement refers to the removal of necrotic, devitalized, or contaminated tissue and/or foreign material to promote wound healing. Surgical debridement uses sharp instruments to cut dead tissue from a wound and it is the quickest and most efficient method of debridement. A wound debridement simulator [1,2] can ensure that a medical trainee is competent prior to performing a procedure on a genuine patient. Irrigation is performed at different stages of debridement in order to remove debris and reduce the bacteria count through rinsing the wound. This paper presents a novel approach for realistic irrigation visualization based on texture representations of debris. This approach applies image processing techniques to a series of images, which model the cleanliness of the wound. The active texture is generated and updated dynamically based on the irrigation state, location, and range. Presented results demonstrate that texture mapping and image processing techniques can provide effective and efficient solutions for irrigation visualization in the wound debridement simulator.

A simulation-based training system for surgical wound debridement

A simulation-based training system for surgical wound debridement was developed and comprises a multimedia introduction, a surgical simulator (tutorial component), and an assessment component. The simulator includes two PCs, a haptic device, and mirrored display. Debridement is performed on a virtual leg model with a shallow laceration wound superimposed. Trainees are instructed to remove debris with forceps, scrub with a brush, and rinse with saline solution to maintain sterility. Research and development issues currently under investigation include tissue deformation models using mass-spring system and finite element methods; tissue cutting using a high-resolution volumetric mesh and dynamic topology; and accurate collision detection, cutting, and soft-body haptic rendering for two devices within the same haptic space.