977 resultados para sunspot fluctuations
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Form factors are derived for a model describing the coherent Josephson tunneling between two coupled Bose-Einstein condensates. This is achieved by studying the exact solution of the model within the framework of the algebraic Bethe ansatz. In this approach the form factors are expressed through determinant representations which are functions of the roots of the Bethe ansatz equations.
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We develop a systematic theory of critical quantum fluctuations in the driven parametric oscillator. Our analytic results agree well with stochastic numerical simulations. We also compare the results obtained in the positive-P representation, as a fully quantum-mechanical calculation, with the truncated Wigner phase-space equation, also known as the semiclassical theory. We show when these results agree and differ in calculations taken beyond the linearized approximation. We find that the optimal broadband noise reduction occurs just above threshold. In this region where there are large quantum fluctuations in the conjugate variance and macroscopic quantum superposition states might be expected, we find that the quantum predictions correspond very closely to the semiclassical theory.
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Previous studies on tidal water table dynamics in unconfined coastal aquifers have focused on the inland propagation of oceanic tides in the cross-shore direction based on the assumption of a straight coastline. Here, two-dimensional analytical solutions are derived to study the effects of rhythmic coastlines on tidal water table fluctuations. The computational results demonstrate that the alongshore variations of the coastline can affect the water table behavior significantly, especially in areas near the centers of the headland and embayment. With the coastline shape effects ignored, traditional analytical solutions may lead to large errors in predicting coastal water table fluctuations or in estimating the aquifer's properties based on these signals. The conditions under which the coastline shape needs to be considered are derived from the new analytical solution.
Spread-F/sporadic E coupling at Chung-Li, especially for postsunset periods of sunspot maximum years
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores
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The purpose of this work was to determine the diversity and population fluctuations of calliphorid flies in the Biological Reserve of Tinguá (ReBio-Tinguá), Nova Iguaçu, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and to correlate their occurrence with the environmental variables of temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. Specimens of Diptera were collected monthly between June 2002 and January 2005 using four traps placed at four points along a trail and exposed for 48 hours. The traps were baited with sardines and the trapped insects were stored in 70% alcohol. It was collected 8,528 calliphorids, thirteen species were identified among the blowflies including Laneela nigripes Guimarães 1977, Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius, 1794), C. albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), C. putoria (Wiedemann, 1830), Chloroprocta idioidea (Robineau-Devoidy, 1830), Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius, 1775), Hemilucilia semidiaphana (Rondani, 1850), H. segmentaria (Fabricius, 1805), Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann,1819), L. cuprina (Wiedemann, 1830), Paralucilia pseudolyrcea (Mello, 1969), Mesembrinella sp. and Eumesembrinella pauciseta (Aldrich, 1922). No significant correlation was found between the abundance of blowflies and the temperature and relative air humidity. Only C. megacephala and C. albiceps showed a positive and significant correlation with rainfall. An analysis of grouping by month (UPGMA) revealed no seasonal difference in the composition of the community, indicating that the community of calliphorid flies is probably more influenced by the ecological niches occupied by each species than by the seasons of the year.
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We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.
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This paper shows that introducing weak property rights in the standard real business cycle (RBC) model can help to explain economic fluctuations. This is motivated by the empirical observation that changes in institutions in emerging markets are related to the evolution of the main macroeconomic variables. In particular, in Mexico, the movements in productivity in the data are associated with changes in institutions, so that we can explain productivity shocks to a large extent as shocks to the quality of institutions. We find that the model with shocks to the degree of protection of property rights only - without technology shocks - can match the second moments in the data for Mexico well. In particular, the fit is better than that of the standard neoclassical model with full protection of property rights regarding the auto-correlations and cross-correlations in the data, especially those related to labor. Viewing productivity shocks as shocks to institutions is also consistent with the stylized fact of falling productivity and non-decreasing labor hours in Mexico over 1980-1994, which is a feature that the neoclassical model cannot match.
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This paper contributes to the on-going empirical debate regarding the role of the RBC model and in particular of technology shocks in explaining aggregate fluctuations. To this end we estimate the model’s posterior density using Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Within this framework we extend Ireland’s (2001, 2004) hybrid estimation approach to allow for a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) process to describe the movements and co-movements of the model’s errors not explained by the basic RBC model. The results of marginal likelihood ratio tests reveal that the more general model of the errors significantly improves the model’s fit relative to the VAR and AR alternatives. Moreover, despite setting the RBC model a more difficult task under the VARMA specification, our analysis, based on forecast error and spectral decompositions, suggests that the RBC model is still capable of explaining a significant fraction of the observed variation in macroeconomic aggregates in the post-war U.S. economy.
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We used mitochondrial cyt b sequences to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Crocidura russula (sensu lato) populations across the Strait of Gibraltar, western Europe, Maghreb, and the Mediterranean and Atlantic islands. This revealed very low genetic divergence between European and Moroccan populations. The application of a molecular clock previously calibrated for shrews suggested that the separation of European from Moroccan lineages occurred less than 60 000 bp, which is at least 5 million years (Myr) after the reopening of the Strait of Gibraltar. This means that an overwater dispersal event was responsible for the observed phylogeographical structure. In contrast, genetic analyses revealed that Moroccan populations were highly distinct from Tunisian ones. According to the molecular clock, these populations separated about 2.2 million years ago (Ma), a time marked by sharp alternations of dry and humid climates in the Maghreb. The populations of the Mediterranean islands Ibiza, Pantelleria, and Sardinia were founded from Tunisian populations by overwater dispersal. In conclusion, overwater dispersal across the Strait of Gibraltar, probably assisted by humans, is possible for small terrestrial vertebrates. Moreover, as in Europe, Quaternary climatic fluctuations had a major effect on the phylogeographical structure of the Maghreb biota.
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Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the dynamics and the trends in the data not captured by the theoretical growth model, we introduce a vector error correction model (VECM) of the measurement errors and estimate the model’s posterior density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether the endogenous growth model or the standard real business cycle model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. In addressing these issues we contribute to both the methods of analysis and the ongoing debate regarding the effects of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity.
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We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.
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The use of attractants and larvicides in oviposition traps is of practical interest for the surveillance and control of urban mosquitoes. In addition to increasing the safety of the traps, this combination is essential for an attract-and-kill control strategy based on trapping mosquito eggs. The combination of Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti) and grass infusion (GI) vs. GI alone were tested for their ability to attract in paired BR-OVT traps in the backyards of 10 houses in Recife, Brazil, for a period of 45 days. Results show that females prefer to oviposit in traps containing Bti (363 compared with 251 egg rafts over 45 days). Results from a one-year trial on the efficacy of BR-OVT traps loaded with GI and Bti as a sampling tool to monitor temporal fluctuations in the population densities of Culex quinquefasciatus in an urban environment are also reported. From December 2006-January 2007, one trap per home was installed and maintained for 348 consecutive days in 134-151 houses located in three urban blocks. Throughout the one-year field trial a total of 43,151 Culex egg rafts were collected in the traps. The data show that BR-OVT loaded with GI and Bti is sensitive enough to demonstrate continuous reproductive activity of Cux. quinquefasciatus in the study area throughout the year and to monitor temporal fluctuations in population density.