Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.

Influence of stocking rate and mixed grazing of Angora goats and Merino sheep on animal and pasture production in southern Australia : 2 : liveweight, body condition score, carcass yield and mortality

The effects of animal species (AS; Angora goats, Merino sheep, mixed-grazed goats and sheep at the ratio of 1:1) and stocking rate (SR; 7.5, 10 and 12.5 animals/ha) on the liveweight, body condition score, carcass yield and mortality of goats and sheep were determined in a replicated experiment on improved annual temperate pastures in southern Australia from 1981 to 1984. The pattern of liveweight change was similar for both species with growth from pasture germination in autumn until maturation in late spring followed by weight loss. In winter, sheep grew faster than goats (65 versus 10 g/day, P < 0.05). In mixed-grazed treatments between November and December goats either grew when sheep were losing weight or goats lost less weight than sheep (P < 0.01). Both AS (P < 0.001) and SR (P < 0.001) affected liveweight of sheep and an AS SR interaction (P <  0.05) affected liveweight of goats. Mixed-grazed sheep were heavier than separately grazed sheep at all SR with a mean difference at 10 and 12.5/ha of 4.6 kg. Mixed-grazed goats at 10/ha were heavier than separately grazed goats from the end of the second year of the experiment, but at 12.5/ha, separately grazed goats maintained an advantage over mixed-grazed goats, with a 9.4-kg mean difference in December (P < 0.05). Body condition scores of goats and sheep declined with increasing SR; they were highest in late spring and were highly correlated with liveweight (r² > 0.8). Both AS and SR affected (P < 0.001) carcass weight and GR tissue depth as a direct result of differences in liveweight. Adjusting for differences in carcass weight negated AS effects on GR tissue depth. The carcass weights of sheep and goats increased by similar amounts for each 1-kg increase in liveweight. Mortality of sheep (3.1% p.a.) was unaffected by AS or SR. An AS SR interaction indicated mortality of separately grazed goats at 12.5/ha and mixed-grazed goats at 10 and 12.5/ha were higher (P < 0.05) than all other goat (29 versus 9%) and sheep treatments, primarily because of increased susceptibility to cold stress. Disease prevalence differed between sheep and goats. Mixed grazing of Merino sheep and Angora goats produced complementary and competitive effects depending upon the SR. Goats used summer pasture better but winter pasture less well for liveweight gain than sheep. Angora goats should not be grazed alone or mixed grazed with sheep on annual temperate pastures at SR greater than that recommended for Merino sheep and the evidence indicates a lower SR will reduce risks associated with mortality.

Infant Mortality as a Potential Measure of Community Health in Urban Growth

This document is one of a series which contains the results of research carried out during a 1969 Summer Study of Urban Decentralization at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, sponsored by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. The summary of the Summer Study is contained in "An Introduction to Urban Decentralization Research," ORNL-HUD-3.

Mortality and morbidity in the city of Bern, Switzerland, 1805-1815 with special emphasis on infant, child and maternal deaths

This article contributes to the research on demographics and public health of urban populations of preindustrial Europe. The key source is a burial register that contains information on the deceased, such as age and sex, residence and cause of death. This register is one of the earliest compilations of data sets of individuals with this high degree of completeness and consistency. Critical assessment of the register's origin, formation and upkeep promises high validity and reliability. Between 1805 and 1815, 4,390 deceased inhabitants were registered. Information concerning these individuals provides the basis for this study. Life tables of Bern's population were created using different models. The causes of death were classified and their frequency calculated. Furthermore, the susceptibility of age groups to certain causes of death was established. Special attention was given to causes of death and mortality of newborns, infants and birth-giving women. In comparison to other cities and regions in Central Europe, Bern's mortality structure shows low rates for infants (q0=0.144) and children (q1-4=0.068). This could have simply indicated better living conditions. Life expectancy at birth was 43 years. Mortality was high in winter and spring, and decreased in summer to a low level with a short rise in August. The study of the causes of death was inhibited by difficulties in translating early 19th century nomenclature into the modern medical system. Nonetheless, death from metabolic disorders, illnesses of the respiratory system, and debilitation were the most prominent causes in Bern. Apparently, the worst killer of infants up to 12 months was the "gichteren", an obsolete German term for lethal spasmodic convulsions. The exact modern identification of this disease remains unclear. Possibilities such as infant tetanus or infant epilepsy are discussed. The maternal death rate of 0.72% is comparable with values calculated from contemporaneous sources. Relevance of childbed fever in the early 1800s was low. Bern's data indicate that the extent of deaths related to childbirth in this period is overrated. This research has an explicit interdisciplinary value for various fields including both the humanities and natural sciences, since information reported here represents the complete age and sex structure of a deceased population. Physical anthropologists can use these data as a true reference group for their palaeodemographic studies of preindustrial Central Europe of the late 18th and early 19th century. It is a call to both historians and anthropologists to use our resources to a better effect through combination of methods and exchange of knowledge.

Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

Proliferative kidney disease in brown trout – infection level, pathology and mortality under field conditions

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is an emerging disease threatening wild salmonid populations. In temperature-controlled aquaria, PKD can cause mortality rates of up to 85% in rainbow trout. So far, no data about PKD-related mortality in wild brown trout Salmo trutta fario are available. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality rates and pathology in brown trout kept in a cage within a natural river habitat known to harbor Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae. Young-of-the-year (YOY) brown trout, free of T. bryosalmonae, were exposed in the River Wutach, in the northeast of Switzerland, during 3 summer months. Samples of wild brown trout caught by electrofishing near the cage location were examined in parallel. The incidence of PKD in cage-exposed animals (69%) was not significantly different to the disease prevalence of wild fish (82 and 80% in the upstream and downstream locations, respectively). The mortality in cageexposed animals, however, was as low as 15%. At the termination of the exposure experiment, surviving fish showed histological lesions typical for PKD regression, suggesting that many YOY brown trout survive the initial infection. Our results at the River Wutach suggest that PKD in brown trout does not always result in high mortality under natural conditions.

Analyses of maternal and child mortality rates of five West African countries: Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone

After traveling to a small country in West Africa last summer, I became interested in learning more about the maternal, infant, and child death rates of that particular region of the continent. For the purposes of this paper I limited the number of countries that would be included in this research to five: Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. There are three hypotheses that were considered when conducting the research for this paper. The first was that there is no difference in the under five mortality rates for Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The second hypothesis was that there is no difference in the female literacy rates for Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The final hypothesis was that there is no difference in the male literacy rates for Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The data used were collected from publicly available sources that include the CIA World Factbook, the WHO website, the UNICEF website, the Penn World Data table, and the World Bank website. The p-values that were calculated for all three hypotheses were found to be very significant, and all three of the null hypotheses were rejected. ^

Effect of soil burial depth and wetting on mortality of diapausing larvae and patterns of post-diapause adult emergence of sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola (Coquillett) (Diptera : Cecidomyiidae)

In south-eastern Queensland, Australia, sorghum planted in early spring usually escapes sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola, attack. Experiments were conducted to better understand the role of winter diapause in the population dynamics of this pest. Emergence patterns of adult midge from diapausing larvae on the soil surface and at various depths were investigated during spring to autumn of 1987/88-1989/90. From 1987/88 to 1989/90, 89%, 65% and 98% of adult emergence, respectively, occurred during November and December. Adult emergence from larvae diapausing on the soil surface was severely reduced due to high mortality attributed to surface soil temperatures in excess of 40 degrees C, with much of this mortality occurring between mid-September and mid-October. Emergence of adults from the soil surface was considerably delayed in the 1988/89 season compared with larvae buried at 5 or 10 cm which had similar emergence patterns for all three seasons. In 1989/90, when a 1-cm-deep treatment was included, there was a 392% increase in adult emergence from this treatment compared with deeper treatments. Some diapausing larvae on the surface did not emerge at the end of summer in only 1 year (1989/90), when 28.0% of the larvae on the surface remained in diapause, whereas only 0.8% of the buried larvae remained in diapause. We conclude that the pattern of emergence explains why spring plantings of sorghum in south-eastern Queensland usually escape sorghum midge attack.

Size-selective mortality and environmental factors affecting early marine growth during early marine life stages of sub-yearling Chinook salmon in Puget Sound, Washington

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Excess Mortality associated to Influenza epidemic in Portugal, from 2007/2008 to 2014/2015 seasons

Mortality in the north hemisphere is higher in winter than in summer seasons, due to the influenza epidemics as well as cold temperatures. Portuguese influenza surveillance comprises clinical and laboratorial notifications of Influenza-like Illness (ILI) attended in the primary health care units and emergency rooms. Without information on specific cause of deaths in real time, estimation of influenza impact has been accessed using Portuguese Daily Mortality Monitoring System (VDM), that covers all cause mortality of Portuguese population. The aim of this study was to provide excess mortality, potentially associated to Influenza each season (between 2007/08 and 2014/15).

Occurrence of OsHV-1 in Crassostrea gigas cultured in Ireland during an exceptionally warm summer. Selection of less susceptible oysters

The occurrence of OsHV-1, a herpes virus causing mass mortality in the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was investigated with the aim to select individuals with different susceptibility to the infection. Naïve spat transferred to infected areas and juveniles currently being grown at those sites were analyzed using molecular and histology approaches. The survey period distinguishes itself by very warm temperatures reaching up to 3.5°C above the average. The virus was not detected in the virus free area although a spread of the disease could be expected due to high temperatures. Overall mortality, prevalence of infection and viral load was higher in spat confirming the higher susceptibility in early life stages. OsHV-1 and oyster mortality were detected in naïve spat after 15 days of cohabitation with infected animals. Although, infection was associated with mortality in spat, the high seawater temperatures could also be the direct cause of mortality at the warmest site. One stock of juveniles suffered an event of abnormal mortality that was significantly associated with OsHV-1 infection. Those animals were infected with a previously undescribed microvariant whereas the other stocks were infected with OsHV-1 μVar. Cell lesions due to the infection were observed by histology and true infections were corroborated by in situ hybridization. Survivors from the natural outbreak were exposed to OsHV-1 μVar by intramuscular injection and were compared to naïve animals. The survival rate in previously exposed animals was significantly higher than in naïve oysters. Results derived from this study allowed the selection of animals that might possess interesting characteristics for future analysis on OsHV-1 resistance.

Age and growth, mortality and reproduction of the striped sea bream, Lithognathus mormyrus Linnaeus 1758, from the south coast of Portugal (Algarve)

The striped sea bream, Lithognathus mormyrus, used for this population dynamics study were obtained from longline catches and market sampling in the Algarve (south Portugal). The macroscopic analysis of the gonads and the gonad somatic index showed that the south Portuguese population of L. mormyrus spawns mainly between late spring and summer (June to August). The length at first maturity was similar for males and females and the value for both sexes combined was estimated to be 16.08 cm, corresponding to an age between 1 and 2 years. Fish age classes (0 to 13) were determined by reading growth rings on whole otoliths. Age determination was validated by marginal increment analysis. The estimated parameters of the von Bertalanffy growth equation were L infinity = 35.30 cm, K = 0.264 and t(0) = -0.809. Mortality rates were calculated for fish captured with longlines, and the estimated parameters were M = 0.356, Z = 0.622 and F = 0.266. From an Algarve fishery management perspective, these results suggest the need for an increase in the minimum landing size (from 15 to 17 cm), which should be beneficial for the sustainability and conservation of this species. The results also showed that fishing with longlines off the Algarve coast may allow for a sustainable use of the resource.