Fiabilidad estructural de coníferas españolas

Se ha procedido al análisis estadístico de un banco de datos de algo más de nueve mil probetas de tamaño estructural ensayadas a lo largo de la década final del s. XX y la inicial del s. XXI, provenientes de masas forestales de coníferas españolas. Las especies estudiadas (pinus sylsvestris, p. halepensis, p. pinaster, p. radiata, p. nigra) representan más del 80% de la superficie forestal española cubierta por coníferas, y ninguna especie de relevancia por volumen potencial de corta a medio plazo ha quedado excluida (quizá con la única excepción de p. pinea, y, con matices juniperus thurifera). Por lo tanto, puede considerarse una información razonablemente representativa de la población de coníferas españolas (en adelante, población objetivo), si bien los procedimientos de muestreo presentan marcadas diferencias en función de las especies. Los procedimientos de ensayo se han atenido, esencialmente, a la normativa europea de referencia, así como a la normativa española de clasificación de madera aserrada, básicamente UNE 56544, con los matices propios de las sucesivas ediciones de las indicadas normas durante un período de unos veinte años. El estudio se ha realizado con el objeto de caracterizar el estado de naturaleza de los principales parámetros resistentes la población objetivo (densidad, módulo de elasticidad longitudinal, y tensión de rotura en flexión pura), así como identificar posibles inconsistencias en la normativa vigente relacionada. Los resultados se han elaborado de forma operativa para su utilización, en una primera aproximación, en la ejecución de cálculos directos de fiabilidad estructural, tal como se plantean en las normativas ISO 2394, ISO 12491, ISO 13822, UNE EN 1990, Código Técnico de la Edificación español y Código Modelo Probabilístico. Inequívocamente, las variables resistentes de referencia de las coníferas españolas susceptibles de uso estructural presentan una variabilidad significativamente superior a la habitual en coníferas de origen en el Centro y Norte de Europa, así como en Norteamérica (en adelante, poblaciones de comparación). Esta diferencia es extrema en el caso de la resistencia, importante en el caso de la rigidez, y prácticamente testimonial en el caso de la densidad. Por otra parte, la rigidez y la densidad de la población objetivo es mucho mayor, para el mismo valor de la resistencia, que las de las poblaciones de comparación. Asimismo, las correlaciones entre las tres variables básicas son inferiores en la población objetivo respecto a la de comparación. Estos hechos llevan a que la aplicación del sistema de clases resistentes en uso conduzca a situaciones de dimensionado poco racionales, y marcadamente antieconómicas. Si bien el objeto del estudio no es el establecimiento de una “jerarquía” estructural de especies, sí deben subrayarse algunos aspectos particulares por especies. El p. nigra tiene los mayores valores centrales y los menores de dispersión de toda la población objetivo, y mayores valores centrales que cualquier referencia de la población de comparación: para la misma fiabilidad objetivo en supuestos habituales, en p.nigra puede ser necesario en torno a un 20% menos de volumen de madera que en p. sylvestris, y en torno a un 40% que en p. radiata . El p. radiata y el p. pinaster presentan los menores valores de centralidad y los mayores de dispersión, de toda la muestra objetivo en formatos aserrados (con la excepción de la densidad: el p. radiata presenta valores muy bajos, pero atípicamente baja variabilidad). Especies habitualmente “no consideradas” como el p. pinea, presentan valores notablemente altos de centralidad, especialmente en la variable densidad. Otro caso de interés es p. halepensis, con prestaciones estructurales muy elevadas, teniendo en cuenta la proveniencia de masas carentes de un manejo adecuado (a efectos de producción maderable). Al contrario que en las poblaciones de comparación, la densidad de las coníferas españolas se representa claramente por distribuciones lognormales, frente a las distribuciones normales que se consideran en la literatura para la misma variable básica. Esto no tiene consecuencias relevantes en la fiabilidad estructural de las uniones, debido a los bajos coeficientes de variación (entre el 10 y 13%, típicamente). Para la tensión de rotura en flexión, parece haber una marcada diferencia entre el tipo de distribución que representa a las poblaciones no clasificadas o rechazadas (que es claramente Lognormal) y la que representa a las poblaciones clasificadas (que parece ser de tipo Weibull de tres parámetros). La distinción va más allá de la sutileza matemática: si la distribución fuese lognormal para todos los casos, la ineficiencia de la aplicación del sistema de clases resistentes aún sería más acusada que lo anteriormente indicado. La distribución normal, sólo representa adecuadamente el estado de naturaleza del módulo de elasticidad y la tensión de rotura de maderas no escuadradas (cilindradas, descortezadas, o simplemente desramadas), y del módulo de elasticidad de las muestras rechazadas. Las coníferas no clasificadas, arrojan valores relativamente elevados de resistencia, lo que hace pensar en la conveniencia de la definición de un “protocolo de mínimos” para posibilitar su uso en el marco normativo actual. Se ha ejemplificado cómo de la aplicación de técnicas probabilísticas utilizando como fundamento los resultados del análisis realizado, resulta un ahorro material potencialmente notable en la población objetivo (en la horquilla del 30 al 60%, dependiendo del estado límite que gobierne el dimensionamiento), respecto a la aplicación directa de los protocolos normativos a partir de la aplicación de la norma de clasificación española. Complementariamente, se han elaborado modelos de variabilidad de los parámetros de las distribuciones propuestas, al objeto de facilitar la aplicación de técnicas de actualización bayesiana. Estas técnicas tienen particular relevancia en el entorno español, por dos razones. Una de ellas, es que suponen, de hecho, la única manera de tratar la cuestión de la seguridad de estructuras prexistentes en un marco matemático-formal consistente con la normativa. La otra, es que permiten la utilización de maderas procedentes de medios de producción con niveles de control de calidad mínimos, incluso casi inexistentes, con inversiones en coste de ensayos comparativamente irrelevantes. ABSTRACT A group of databases making a total of ca. 9.000 beams produced by sawing coniferous species from Spain, tested according EN 384 (1) and visually graded according Spanish standards were analyzed. The main goal was to reach a detailed comprehension about the true state of nature of the three reference structural properties (density, MOR and MOE), in the conditions the material reaches the real market. This goal has been addressed through the detailed adjustment of the proper probabilistic model to the data available. The most important outcome has been the proposal of a set of distribution parameters for the target species, ready to be used in direct probabilistic calculation. This use is exemplified through structural reliability calculations, establishing a priori data for Bayesian reliability updating, Spanish code calibration suggestions, and parameters proposal for the Probabilistic Model Code (2).

Análise de confiabilidade de estruturas com paredes portantes de concreto pré-moldado

O método construtivo com painéis portantes de concreto é economicamente viável, porém relativamente novo no cenário nacional, sobretudo no caso dos pré-moldados. As incertezas referentes às peculiaridades desse método, bem como a nova norma brasileira de painéis pré-moldados, ainda em elaboração, vem a motivar uma análise probabilística dos critérios de projeto disponíveis. Utilizando-se a técnica da confiabilidade estrutural, é possível propagar as incertezas referentes às variáveis a uma resposta final no índice de confiabilidade, sendo um cálculo totalmente probabilístico. Neste trabalho, emprega-se tal técnica com informações estatísticas referentes a lajes de concreto moldadas in loco para verificar, de maneira mais verossímil, a segurança dos critérios de projeto impostos pelo Precast Concrete Institute Design Handbook - Precast and Prestressed Concrete - 7th Edition (2010) às fases transitórias (desforma, transporte e içamento) e pela Norma Brasileira ABNT NBR 6118: 2014 - Projeto de estruturas de concreto, à fase em uso. Prossegue-se a uma análise crítica dos resultados bem como sugestões para diminuir a variação dos resultados, sobretudo pela calibração de novos coeficientes parciais de segurança, processo para o qual este trabalho pode servir de base.

Confiabilidade aplicada ao problema de interação estaca-solo.

Este trabalho busca aplicar técnicas de confiabilidade ao problema de grupo de estacas utilizadas como fundação de estruturas correntes. Para isso, lança-se mão de um modelo tridimensional de interação estaca-solo onde estão presentes o Método dos Elementos de Contorno (MEC) e o método dos Elementos Finitos (MEF) que atuam de forma acoplada. O MEC, com as soluções fundamentais de Mindlin (meio semi-infinito, homogêneo, isotrópico e elástico-linear é utiliza), é utilizado para modelar o solo. Já o MEF é utilizado para modelar as estacas. Definido o modelo de funcionamento estrutural das estacas, parte-se para a aplicação de métodos trazidos da confiabilidade estrutural para avaliação da adequabilidade em relação aos estados limite de serviço e estados limites últimos. Os métodos de confiabilidade utilizados foram o Método de Monte Carlo, o método FOSM (First-Order Second-Moment) e o método FORM (First-Order Reliability Method).

Efeito da corrosão do chapeamento do fundo do casco sobre a confiabilidade estrutural de navios.

A engenharia é a ciência que transforma os conhecimentos das disciplinas básicas aplicadas a fatos reais. Nosso mundo está rodeado por essas realizações da engenharia, e é necessário que as pessoas se sintam confortáveis e seguras nas mesmas. Assim, a segurança se torna um fator importante que deve ser considerado em qualquer projeto. Na engenharia naval, um apropriado nível de segurança e, em consequência, um correto desenho estrutural é baseado, atualmente, em estudos determinísticos com o objetivo de obter estruturas capazes de suportar o pior cenário possível de solicitações durante um período de tempo determinado. A maior parte das solicitações na estrutura de um navio se deve à ação da natureza (ventos, ondas, correnteza e tempestades), ou, ainda, aos erros cometidos por humanos (explosões internas, explosões externas e colisões). Devido à aleatoriedade destes eventos, a confiabilidade estrutural de um navio deveria ser considerada como um problema estocástico sob condições ambientais bem caracterizadas. A metodologia probabilística, baseada em estatística e incertezas, oferece uma melhor perspectiva dos fenômenos reais que acontecem na estrutura dos navios. Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo apresentar resultados de confiabilidade estrutural em projetos e planejamento da manutenção para a chapa do fundo dos cascos dos navios, as quais são submetidas a esforços variáveis pela ação das ondas do mar e da corrosão. Foram estudados modelos estatísticos para a avaliação da estrutura da viga-navio e para o detalhe estrutural da chapa do fundo. Na avaliação da estrutura da viga-navio, o modelo desenvolvido consiste em determinar as probabilidades de ocorrência das solicitações na estrutura, considerando a deterioração por corrosão, com base numa investigação estatística da variação dos esforços em função das ondas e a deterioração em função de uma taxa de corrosão padrão recomendada pela DET NORSKE VERITAS (DNV). A abordagem para avaliação da confiabilidade dependente do tempo é desenvolvida com base nas curvas de resistências e solicitações (R-S) determinadas pela utilização do método de Monte Carlo. Uma variação estatística de longo prazo das adversidades é determinada pelo estudo estatístico de ondas em longo prazo e ajustada por uma distribuição com base numa vida de projeto conhecida. Constam no trabalho resultados da variação da confiabilidade ao longo do tempo de um navio petroleiro. O caso de estudo foi simplificado para facilitar a obtenção de dados, com o objetivo de corroborar a metodologia desenvolvida.

Test-retest reliability of graph theory measures of structural brain connectivity

The human connectome has recently become a popular research topic in neuroscience, and many new algorithms have been applied to analyze brain networks. In particular, network topology measures from graph theory have been adapted to analyze network efficiency and 'small-world' properties. While there has been a surge in the number of papers examining connectivity through graph theory, questions remain about its test-retest reliability (TRT). In particular, the reproducibility of structural connectivity measures has not been assessed. We examined the TRT of global connectivity measures generated from graph theory analyses of 17 young adults who underwent two high-angular resolution diffusion (HARDI) scans approximately 3 months apart. Of the measures assessed, modularity had the highest TRT, and it was stable across a range of sparsities (a thresholding parameter used to define which network edges are retained). These reliability measures underline the need to develop network descriptors that are robust to acquisition parameters.

A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improvement of Mechanical Properties and Life Extension of High Reliability Structural Components by Laser Shock Processing

Profiting by the increasing availability of laser sources delivering intensities above 109 W/cm2 with pulse energies in the range of several Joules and pulse widths in the range of nanoseconds, laser shock processing (LSP) is being consolidating as an effective technology for the improvement of surface mechanical and corrosion resistance properties of metals and is being developed as a practical process amenable to production engineering. The main acknowledged advantage of the laser shock processing technique consists on its capability of inducing a relatively deep compression residual stresses field into metallic alloy pieces allowing an improved mechanical behaviour, explicitly, the life improvement of the treated specimens against wear, crack growth and stress corrosion cracking. Following a short description of the theoretical/computational and experimental methods developed by the authors for the predictive assessment and experimental implementation of LSP treatments, experimental results on the residual stress profiles and associated surface properties modification successfully reached in typical materials (specifically Al and Ti alloys) under different LSP irradiation conditions are presented. In particular, the analysis of the residual stress profiles obtained under different irradiation parameters and the evaluation of the corresponding induced surface properties as roughness and wear resistance are presented.

Structural health monitoring of bridges using acoustic emission technology

Bridges are an important part of society's infrastructure and reliable methods are necessary to monitor them and ensure their safety and efficiency. Bridges deteriorate with age and early detection of damage helps in prolonging the lives and prevent catastrophic failures. Most bridges still in used today were built decades ago and are now subjected to changes in load patterns, which can cause localized distress and if not corrected can result in bridge failure. In the past, monitoring of structures was usually done by means of visual inspection and tapping of the structures using a small hammer. Recent advancements of sensors and information technologies have resulted in new ways of monitoring the performance of structures. This paper briefly describes the current technologies used in bridge structures condition monitoring with its prime focus in the application of acoustic emission (AE) technology in the monitoring of bridge structures and its challenges.

Structural health monitoring in Australia

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is defined as the use of on-structure sensing system to monitor the performance of the structure and evaluate its health state. Recent bridge failures, such as the collapses of the 1-35W Highway Bridge in USA, the collapse of the Can Tho Bridge in Vietnam and the Xijiang River Bridge in the Mainland China, all of which happened in the year 2007, have alerted the importance of structural health monitoring. This book presents a background of SHM technologies together with its latest development and successful applications. It is a book launched to celebrate the establishment of the Australian Network of Structural Health Monitoring (ANSHM). The network comprising leading SHM experts in Australia promotes and advances SHM research, application, education and development in Australia.

The reliability, accuracy and minimal detectable difference of a multi-segment kinematic model of the foot-shoe complex

Kinematic models are commonly used to quantify foot and ankle kinematics, yet no marker sets or models have been proven reliable or accurate when wearing shoes. Further, the minimal detectable difference of a developed model is often not reported. We present a kinematic model that is reliable, accurate and sensitive to describe the kinematics of the foot–shoe complex and lower leg during walking gait. In order to achieve this, a new marker set was established, consisting of 25 markers applied on the shoe and skin surface, which informed a four segment kinematic model of the foot–shoe complex and lower leg. Three independent experiments were conducted to determine the reliability, accuracy and minimal detectable difference of the marker set and model. Inter-rater reliability of marker placement on the shoe was proven to be good to excellent (ICC = 0.75–0.98) indicating that markers could be applied reliably between raters. Intra-rater reliability was better for the experienced rater (ICC = 0.68–0.99) than the inexperienced rater (ICC = 0.38–0.97). The accuracy of marker placement along each axis was <6.7 mm for all markers studied. Minimal detectable difference (MDD90) thresholds were defined for each joint; tibiocalcaneal joint – MDD90 = 2.17–9.36°, tarsometatarsal joint – MDD90 = 1.03–9.29° and the metatarsophalangeal joint – MDD90 = 1.75–9.12°. These thresholds proposed are specific for the description of shod motion, and can be used in future research designed at comparing between different footwear.

Reliable and valid survey design for structural equation modelling

My quantitative study asks how Chinese Australians’ “Chineseness” and their various resources influence their Chinese language proficiency, using online survey and snowball sampling. ‘Operationalization’ is a challenging process which ensures that the survey design talks back to the informing theory and forwards to the analysis model. It requires the attention to two core methodological concerns, namely ‘validity’ and ‘reliability’. Construction of a high-quality questionnaire is critical to the achievement of valid and reliable operationalization. A series of strategies were chosen to ensure the quality of the questions, and thus the eventual data. These strategies enable the use of structural equation modelling to examine how well the data fits the theoretical framework, which was constructed in light of Bourdieu’s theory of habitus, capital and field.

Pitfalls in the use of kappa when interpreting agreement between multiple raters in reliability studies

OBJECTIVE To compare different reliability coefficients (exact agreement, and variations of the kappa (generalised, Cohen's and Prevalence Adjusted and Biased Adjusted (PABAK))) for four physiotherapists conducting visual assessments of scapulae. DESIGN Inter-therapist reliability study. SETTING Research laboratory. PARTICIPANTS 30 individuals with no history of neck or shoulder pain were recruited with no obvious significant postural abnormalities. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Ratings of scapular posture were recorded in multiple biomechanical planes under four test conditions (at rest, and while under three isometric conditions) by four physiotherapists. RESULTS The magnitude of discrepancy between the two therapist pairs was 0.04 to 0.76 for Cohen's kappa, and 0.00 to 0.86 for PABAK. In comparison, the generalised kappa provided a score between the two paired kappa coefficients. The difference between mean generalised kappa coefficients and mean Cohen's kappa (0.02) and between mean generalised kappa and PABAK (0.02) were negligible, but the magnitude of difference between the generalised kappa and paired kappa within each plane and condition was substantial; 0.02 to 0.57 for Cohen's kappa and 0.02 to 0.63 for PABAK, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Calculating coefficients for therapist pairs alone may result in inconsistent findings. In contrast, the generalised kappa provided a coefficient close to the mean of the paired kappa coefficients. These findings support an assertion that generalised kappa may lead to a better representation of reliability between three or more raters and that reliability studies only calculating agreement between two raters should be interpreted with caution. However, generalised kappa may mask more extreme cases of agreement (or disagreement) that paired comparisons may reveal.

Functional and structural of the erector spinae muscle during isometric lumbar extension

Study Design Cross-sectional study. Objectives To compare erector spinae (ES) muscle fatigue between chronic non-specific lower back pain (CNLBP) sufferers and healthy subjects from a biomechanical perspective during fatiguing isometric lumbar extensions. Background Paraspinal muscle maximal contraction and fatigue are used as a functional predictor for disabilities. The simplest method to determine muscle fatigue is by evaluating the evolution during specific contractions, such as isometric contractions. There are no studies that evaluate the evolution of the ES muscle during fatiguing isometric lumbar extensions and analyse functional and architectural variables. Methods In a pre-calibrated system, participants performed a maximal isometric extension of the lumbar spine for 5 and 30 seconds. Functional variables (torque and muscle activation) and architecture (pennation angle and muscle thickness) were measured using a load cell, surface electromyography and ultrasound, respectively. The results were normalised and a reliability study of the ultrasound measurement was made. Results: The ultrasound measurements were highly reliable, with Cronbach’s alpha values ranging from 0.951 0.981. All measured variables shown significant differences before and after fatiguing isometric lumbar extension. Conclusion During a lumbar isometric extension test, architecture and functional variables of the ES muscle could be analised using ultrasound, surface EMG and load cell. In adition, during an endurance test, ES muscle suffers an acute effect on architectural and functional variables.

A computerized methodology for structural synthesis of kinematic chains: Part 2 - Application to several fully or partially known cases

The reliability of the computer program for structural synthesis and analysis of simple-jointed kinematic chains developed in Part 1 has been established by applying it to several cases for whuch solutions are either fully or partially available in the literature, such as 7-link, zero-freedom chains; 8- and 10-link, single-freedom chains; 12-link, single-freedom binary chains; and 9-link, two-freedom chains. In the process some discrepancies in the results reported in previous literature have been brought to light.