Comparison of stochastic parametrization approaches in a single-column model

We discuss and test the potential usefulness of single-column models (SCMs) for the testing of stchastic physics schemes that have been proposed for use in general circulation models (GCMs). We argue that although single column tests cannot be definitive in exposing the full behaviour of a stochastic method in the full GCM, and although there are differences between SCM testing of deterministic and stochastic methods, nonetheless SCM testing remains a useful tool. It is necessary to consider an ensemble of SCM runs produced by the stochastic method. These can be usefully compared to deterministic ensembles describing initial condition uncertainty and also to combinations of these (with structural model changes) into poor man's ensembles. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an SCM experiment recently developed by the GCSS community, simulating the transitions between active and suppressed periods of tropical convection.

Comparison of stochastic parameterisation approaches in a single-column model

We discuss and test the potential usefulness of single-column models (SCMs) for the testing of stochastic physics schemes that have been proposed for use in general circulation models (GCMs). We argue that although single column tests cannot be definitive in exposing the full behaviour of a stochastic method in the full GCM, and although there are differences between SCM testing of deterministic and stochastic methods, SCM testing remains a useful tool. It is necessary to consider an ensemble of SCM runs produced by the stochastic method. These can be usefully compared to deterministic ensembles describing initial condition uncertainty and also to combinations of these (with structural model changes) into poor man's ensembles. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using an SCM experiment recently developed by the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) community, simulating transitions between active and suppressed periods of tropical convection.

A modified signed likelihood ratio test in elliptical structural models

In this paper we deal with the issue of performing accurate testing inference on a scalar parameter of interest in structural errors-in-variables models. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the class of the elliptical distributions, which has the multivariate normal distribution as special case. We derive a modified signed likelihood ratio statistic that follows a standard normal distribution with a high degree of accuracy. Our Monte Carlo results show that the modified test is much less size distorted than its unmodified counterpart. An application is presented.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Structural and optical properties of CaTiO3 perovskite-based materials obtained by microwave-assisted hydrothermal synthesis: An experimental and theoretical insight

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A structure based model for liposome disruption and the role of catalytic activity in myotoxic phospholipase A(2)S

Venom phospholipase A(2)s (PLA(2)s) display a wide spectrum of pharmacological activities and, based on the wealth of biochemical and structural data currently available for PLA(2)S, mechanistic models can now be inferred to account for some of these activities. A structural model is presented for the role played by the distribution of surface electrostatic potential in the ability of myotoxic D49/K49 PLA(2)s to disrupt multilamellar vesicles containing negatively charged natural and non-hydrolyzable phospholipids. Structural evidence is provided for the ability of K49 PLA(2)s to bind phospholipid analogues and for the existence of catalytic activity in K49 PLA(2)s. The importance of the existence of catalytic activity of D49 and K49 PLA(2)s in myotoxicity is presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural studies of NaPO3-MoO3 glasses by solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance and raman spectroscopy

Vitreous samples were prepared in the (100 - x)% NaPO3-x% MoO3 (0 <= x <= 70) glass-forming system by a modified melt method that allowed good optical quality samples to be obtained. The structural evolution of the vitreous network was monitored as a function of composition by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), Raman scattering, and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for P-31, Na-23, and Mo-95 nuclei. Addition of MoO3 to the NaPO3 glass melt leads to a pronounced increase in the glass transition temperatures up to x = 45, suggesting a significant increase in network connectivity. For this same composition range, vibrational spectra suggest that the Mo6+ ions are bonded to some nonbridging oxygen atoms (Mo-O- or Mo=O bonded species). Mo-O-Mo bond formation occurs only at MoO3 contents exceeding x = 45. P-31 magic-angle spinning (MAS) NMR spectra, supported by two-dimensional J-resolved spectroscopy, allow a clear distinction between species having two, one, and zero P-O-P linkages. These sites are denoted as Q(2Mo)((2)), Q(1Mo)((2)), and Q(0Mo)((2)), respectively. For x < 0.45, the populations of these sites can be described along the lines of a binary model, according to which each unit of MoO3 converts two Q(nMo)((2)) sites into two Q((n+1)Mo)((2)) sites (n = 0, 1). This structural model is consistent with the presence of tetrahedral Mo(=O)(2)(O-1/2)(2) environments. Indeed, Mo-95 NMR data suggest that the majority of the molybdenum species are four-coordinated. However, the presence of additional six-coordinate molybdenum in the MAS NMR spectra indicates that the structure of these glasses may be more complicated and may additionally involve sharing of network modifier oxide between the network formers phosphorus and molybdenum. This latter hypothesis is further supported by Na-23{P-31} rotational echo double resonance (REDOR) data, which clearly reveal that the magnetic dipole-dipole interactions between P-31 and Na-23 are increasingly diminished with increasing molybdenum content. The partial transfer of modifier from the phosphate to the molybdate network former implies a partial repolymerization of the phosphate species, resulting in the formation of Q(nMo)((3)) species and accounting for the observed increase in the glass transition temperature with increasing MoO3 content that is observed in the composition range 0 <= x <= 45. Glasses with MoO3 contents beyond x = 45 show decreased thermal and crystallization stability. Their structure is characterized by isolated phosphate species [most likely of the P(OMo)(4) type] and molybdenum oxide clusters with a large extent of Mo-O-Mo connectivity.

Molecular model of cyclin-dependent kinase 5 complexed with roscovitine

Here is described a structural model for the binary complex CDK5-roscovitine. Roscovitine has been shown to potently inhibit cyclin-dependent kinases 1, 2 and 5 (CDK1, 2, and 5), and the structure of CDK2 complexed with roscovitine has been reported; however, no structural data, are available for complexes of CDK5 with inhibitors. The structural model indicates that roscovitine strongly binds to the ATP-binding pocket of CDK5 and structural comparison of the CDK2-roscovitine complex correlates the structural differences with differences in inhibition of these CDKs by this inhibitor. This structure opens the possibility of testing new inhibitor families, in addition to new substituents for the already known lead structures of adenine derivatives. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. (USA). All rights reserved.

Structural characterization of a tin oxyhydroxide gel and its precursor sol

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Structural basis for inhibition of cyclin-dependent kinase 9 by flavopiridol

Flavopiridol has been shown to potently inhibit CDK1 and 2 (cyclin-dependent kinases 1 and 2) and most recently it has been found that it also inhibits CDK9. The complex CDK9-cyclin T1 controls the elongation phase of transcription by RNA polymerase II. The present work describes a molecular model for the binary complex CDK9-flavopiridol. This structural model indicates that the inhibitor strongly binds to the ATP-binding pocket of CDK9 and the structural comparison of the complex CDK2-flavopiridol correlates the structural differences with differences in inhibition of these CDKs by flavopiridol. This structure opens the possibility of testing new inhibitor families, in addition to new substituents for the already known leading structures such as flavones and adenine derivatives. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Hyaluronidase from the venom of the social wasp Polybia paulista (Hymenoptera, Vespidae): Cloning, structural modeling, purification, and immunological analysis

In this study, we describe the cDNA cloning, sequencing, and 3-D structure of the allergen hyaluronidase from Polybia paulista venom (Pp-Hyal). Using a proteomic approach, the native form of Pp-Hyal was purified to homogeneity and used to produce a Pp-specific polyclonal antibody. The results revealed that Pp-Hyal can be classified as a glycosyl hydrolase and that the full-length Pp-Hyal cDNA (1315 bp; GI: 302201582) is similar (80-90%) to hyaluronidase from the venoms of endemic Northern wasp species. The isolated mature protein is comprised of 338 amino acids, with a theoretical pI of 8.77 and a molecular mass of 39,648.8 Da versus a pI of 8.13 and 43,277.0 Da indicated by MS. The Pp-Hyal 3D-structural model revealed a central core (α/β)7 barrel, two sulfide bonds (Cys 19-308 and Cys 185-197), and three putative glycosylation sites (Asn79, Asn187, and Asn325), two of which are also found in the rVes v 2 protein. Based on the model, residues Ser299, Asp107, and Glu109 interact with the substrate and potential epitopes (five conformational and seven linear) located at surface-exposed regions of the structure. Purified native Pp-Hyal showed high similarity (97%) with hyaluronidase from Polistes annularis venom (Q9U6V9). Immunoblotting analysis confirmed the specificity of the Pp-Hyal-specific antibody as it recognized the Pp-Hyal protein in both the purified fraction and P. paulista crude venom. No reaction was observed with the venoms of Apis mellifera, Solenopsis invicta, Agelaia pallipes pallipes, and Polistes lanio lanio, with the exception of immune cross-reactivity with venoms of the genus Polybia (sericea and ignobilis). Our results demonstrate cross-reactivity only between wasp venoms from the genus Polybia. The absence of cross-reactivity between the venoms of wasps and bees observed here is important because it allows identification of the insect responsible for sensitization, or at least of the phylogenetically closest insect, in order to facilitate effective immunotherapy in allergic patients. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Thermal and structural study of glasses in the binary system TeO2-Pb(PO3)(2)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Functional and structural studies of the disulfide isomerase DsbC from the plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa reveals a redox-dependent oligomeric modulation in vitro

Xylella fastidiosa is a Gram-negative bacterium that grows as a biofilm inside the xylem vessels of susceptible plants and causes several economically relevant crop diseases. In the present study, we report the functional and low-resolution structural characterization of the X. fastidiosa disulfide isomerase DsbC (XfDsbC). DsbC is part of the disulfide bond reduction/isomerization pathway in the bacterial periplasm and plays an important role in oxidative protein folding. In the present study, we demonstrate the presence of XfDsbC during different stages of X. fastidiosa biofilm development. XfDsbC was not detected during X. fastidiosa planktonic growth; however, after administering a sublethal copper shock, we observed an overexpression of XfDsbC that also occurred during planktonic growth. These results suggest that X. fastidiosa can use XfDsbC in vivo under oxidative stress conditions similar to those induced by copper. In addition, using dynamic light scattering and small-angle X-ray scattering, we observed that the oligomeric state of XfDsbC in vitro may be dependent on the redox environment. Under reducing conditions, XfDsbC is present as a dimer, whereas a putative tetrameric form was observed under nonreducing conditions. Taken together, our findings demonstrate the overexpression of XfDsbC during biofilm formation and provide the first structural model of a bacterial disulfide isomerase in solution. Structured digital abstract XfDsbC and XfDsbC bind by x ray scattering (View Interaction: 1, 2) XfDsbC and XfDsbC bind by molecular sieving (View interaction) XfDsbC and XfDsbC bind by comigration in non denaturing gel electrophoresis (View interaction) XfDsbC and XfDsbC bind by cross-linking study (View Interaction: 1, 2) XfDsbC and XfDsbC bind by dynamic light scattering (View Interaction: 1, 2)

Contribution to assessing the stiffness reduction of structural elements in the global stability analysis of precast concrete multi-storey buildings

This study deals with the reduction of the stiffness in precast concrete structural elements of multi-storey buildings to analyze global stability. Having reviewed the technical literature, this paper present indications of stiffness reduction in different codes, standards, and recommendations and compare these to the values found in the present study. The structural model analyzed in this study was constructed with finite elements using ANSYS® software. Physical Non-Linearity (PNL) was considered in relation to the diagrams M x N x 1/r, and Geometric Non-Linearity (GNL) was calculated following the Newton-Raphson method. Using a typical precast concrete structure with multiple floors and a semi-rigid beam-to-column connection, expressions for a stiffness reduction coefficient are presented. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: the reduction coefficients obtained from the diagram M x N x 1/r differ from standards that use a simplified consideration of PNL; the stiffness reduction coefficient for columns in the arrangements analyzed were approximately 0.5 to 0.6; and the variation of values found for stiffness reduction coefficient in concrete beams, which were subjected to the effects of creep with linear coefficients from 0 to 3, ranged from 0.45 to 0.2 for positive bending moments and 0.3 to 0.2 for negative bending moments.

A Mechanistic Latent Variable Model for Estimating Drug Concentrations in the Male Genital Tract

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical methodology to facilitate indirect estimation of the concentration of antiretroviral drugs and viral loads in the prostate gland and the seminal vesicle. The differences in antiretroviral drug concentrations in these organs may lead to suboptimal concentrations in one gland compared to the other. Suboptimal levels of the antiretroviral drugs will not be able to fully suppress the virus in that gland, lead to a source of sexually transmissible virus and increase the chance of selecting for drug resistant virus. This information may be useful selecting antiretroviral drug regimen that will achieve optimal concentrations in most of male genital tract glands. Using fractionally collected semen ejaculates, Lundquist (1949) measured levels of surrogate markers in each fraction that are uniquely produced by specific male accessory glands. To determine the original glandular concentrations of the surrogate markers, Lundquist solved a simultaneous series of linear equations. This method has several limitations. In particular, it does not yield a unique solution, it does not address measurement error, and it disregards inter-subject variability in the parameters. To cope with these limitations, we developed a mechanistic latent variable model based on the physiology of the male genital tract and surrogate markers. We employ a Bayesian approach and perform a sensitivity analysis with regard to the distributional assumptions on the random effects and priors. The model and Bayesian approach is validated on experimental data where the concentration of a drug should be (biologically) differentially distributed between the two glands. In this example, the Bayesian model-based conclusions are found to be robust to model specification and this hierarchical approach leads to more scientifically valid conclusions than the original methodology. In particular, unlike existing methods, the proposed model based approach was not affected by a common form of outliers.