Ten-year survival after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Very few studies have provided information regarding long-term prognosis after stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute and relative survival over 10 years among patients with first-ever stroke from a population-based study in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who were resident in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, 5 years, and 10 years after the index event. Results-A total of 251 patients with first-ever stroke were registered, and 244 (97%) were followed up at 10 years, by which time 197 (79%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 74 to 84) had died. The major causes of death were the direct effects of the initial stroke (27%; 95% CI, 21 to 33) and cardiovascular disease (26%; 95% CI, 20 to 32). Among 1-year survivors of stroke, the average annual case fatality was 4.8%, which was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.9 to 2.7) times greater than for the general population of the same age and sex. Conclusions-One in 5 patients with first-ever stroke survived to 10 years. The average annual case fatality was 4.8% between years 1 and 10 after stroke, which was twice that expected for the general population. Vascular disease is the major cause of death among long-term survivors of stroke.

Ten-year risk of first recurrent stroke and disability after first-ever stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Limited information exists on the long-term prognosis after first-ever stroke. We aimed to determine the absolute frequency of first recurrent stroke and disability and the relative frequency of recurrent stroke over 10 years after first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-For a 12-month period beginning February 1989, all individuals with suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack who lived in a geographically defined and representative region of Perth were registered prospectively. Patients with a definite first-ever stroke were followed up 10 years after the index event. Results-Over 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative risk of a first recurrent stroke was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34 to 51). After the first year after first-ever stroke, the average annual risk of recurrent stroke was approximate to4%. Case fatality at 30 days after first recurrent stroke was 41%, which was significantly greater than the case fatality at 30 days after first-ever stroke (22%) (P=0.003). For 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, the 10-year cumulative risk of death or new institutionalization was 79% (95% CI, 73 to 85) and of death or new disability was 87% (95% CI, 81 to 92). Conclusions-Over 10 years of follow-up, the risk of first recurrent stroke is 6 times greater than the risk of first-ever stroke in the general population of the same age and sex, almost one half of survivors remain disabled, and one seventh require institutional care. Effective strategies for prevention of stroke need to be implemented early, monitored frequently, and maintained long term after first-ever stroke.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Homocysteine-lowering treatment with folic acid, cobalamin, and pyridoxine does not reduce blood markers of inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, or hypercoagulability in patients with previous transient ischemic attack or stroke - a randomized substudy

Background and Purpose - Epidemiological and laboratory studies suggest that increasing concentrations of plasma homocysteine ( total homocysteine [tHcy]) accelerate cardiovascular disease by promoting vascular inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and hypercoagulability. Methods - We conducted a randomized controlled trial in 285 patients with recent transient ischemic attack or stroke to examine the effect of lowering tHcy with folic acid 2 mg, vitamin B-12 0.5 mg, and vitamin B-6 25 mg compared with placebo on laboratory markers of vascular inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and hypercoagulability. Results - At 6 months after randomization, there was no significant difference in blood concentrations of markers of vascular inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [P = 0.32]; soluble CD40L [ P = 0.33]; IL-6 [P = 0.77]), endothelial dysfunction ( vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 [P = 0.27]; intercellular adhesion molecule-1 [P = 0.08]; von Willebrand factor [P = 0.92]), and hypercoagulability (P-selectin [P = 0.33]; prothrombin fragment 1 and 2 [P = 0.81]; D-dimer [P = 0.88]) among patients assigned vitamin therapy compared with placebo despite a 3.7-mumol/L (95% CI, 2.7 to 4.7) reduction in total homocysteine (tHcy). Conclusions - Lowering tHcy by 3.7 mumol/L with folic acid-based multivitamin therapy does not significantly reduce blood concentrations of the biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, or hypercoagulability measured in our study. The possible explanations for our findings are: ( 1) these biomarkers are not sensitive to the effects of lowering tHcy (eg, multiple risk factor interventions may be required); ( 2) elevated tHcy causes cardiovascular disease by mechanisms other than the biomarkers measured; or ( 3) elevated tHcy is a noncausal marker of increased vascular risk.

Trends in five-year survival and risk of recurrent stroke after first-ever stroke in the Perth community stroke study

Background: Few studies provide information on trends in the long-term outcome of stroke. We aimed to determine trends in survival and recurrent stroke, over 5 years after first-ever stroke, for 2 cohorts of patients enrolled in the Perth Community Stroke Study in 1989 90 and 1995-96. Methods: For 12-month periods beginning February 1989 and February 1995, all individuals with an acute stroke who were resident in a geographically-defined and representative region of Perth, Western Australia, were registered and followed-up prospectively 5 years after the index event. Results: The 5-year cumulative risk of death was 59% (95% confidence interval (CI) 53%, 65%) and 58% (95% CI 52%, 65%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.94). The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 32% (95% CI 25%, 40%) and 23% (95% CI 16%, 30%) for the 1989-90 and 1995-96 cohorts, respectively (p = 0.07). Conclusions: Although no statistically significant improvement occurred in 5-year survival after first-ever stroke in Perth between 1989-90 and 1995-96, there was a statistically nonsignificant trend towards a smaller cumulative risk of recurrent stroke over 5 years after a first-ever stroke. Serial community-based studies of the incidence and outcome of stroke are an important means of monitoring the translation of proven preventive interventions to improvements in population health. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A Comparison Between Pulse Pressure Variation and Right End Diastolic Volume Index as Guides to Resuscitation in a Model of Hemorrhagic Shock in Pigs

Background: Different hemodynamic parameters including static indicators of cardiac preload as right ventricular end-diastolic volume index (RVEDVI) and dynamic parameters as pulse pressure variation (PPV) have been used in the decision-making process regarding volume expansion in critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to compare fluid resuscitation guided by either PPV or RVEDVI after experimentally induced hemorrhagic shock. Methods: Twenty-six anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were allocated into control (group I), PPV (group II), or RVEDVI (group III) group. Hemorrhagic shock was induced by blood withdrawal to target mean arterial pressure of 40 mm Hg, maintained for 60 minutes. Parameters were measured at baseline, time of shock, 60 minutes after shock, immediately after resuscitation with hydroxyethyl starch 6% (130/0.4), 1 hour and 2 hours thereafter. The endpoint of fluid resuscitation was determined as the baseline values of PPV and RVEDVI. Statistical analysis of data was based on analysis of variance for repeated measures followed by the Bonferroni test (p < 0.05). Results: Volume and time to resuscitation were higher in group III than in group II (group III = 1,305 +/- 331 mL and group II = 965 +/- 245 mL, p < 0.05; and group III = 24.8 +/- 4.7 minutes and group II = 8.8 +/- 1.3 minutes, p < 0.05, respectively). All static and dynamic parameters and biomarkers of tissue oxygenation were affected by hemorrhagic shock and nearly all parameters were restored after resuscitation in both groups. Conclusion: In the proposed model of hemorrhagic shock, resuscitation to the established endpoints was achieved within a smaller amount of time and with less volume when guided by PPV than when guided by pulmonary artery catheter-derived RVEDVI.

Risk factors for post-stroke depression

Objective. To examine possible risk factors in post-stroke depression (PSD) other than site of lesion in the brain Data sources. 191 first-ever stroke patients were examined physically shortly after their stroke and examined psychiatrically and physically 4 months post-stroke. Setting. A geographically defined segment of the metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia, from which all strokes over a course of 18 months were examined (the Perth Community Stroke Study). Measures. Psychiatric Assessment Schedule, Mini Mental State Examination, Barthel Index, Frenchay Activities Index, physical illness and sociodemographic data were collected. Post-stroke depression (PSD) included both major depression and minor depression (dysthymia without the 2-year time stipulation) according to DSM-III (American Psychiatric Association) criteria. Patients depressed at the time of the stroke were excluded. Patients. 191 first-ever stroke patients, 111M, 80F, 28% had PSD, 17% major and 11% minor depression. Results. Significant associations with PSD at 4 months were major functional impairment, living in a nursing home, being divorced and having a high pre-stroke alcohol intake (M only). There was no significant association with age, sex, social class, cognitive impairment or pre-stroke physical illness. Conclusion. Results favoured the hypothesis that depression in an unselected group of stroke patients is no more common, and of no more specific aetiology, than it is among elderly patients with other physical illness.

Stroke prevalence in a poor neighbourhood of Sao Paulo, Brazil: applying a stroke symptom questionnaire

Background Brazil has one of the highest stroke mortality rates in the world, these rates are most endemic in the poor. We verified the prevalence of stroke in a deprived neighbourhood in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil and compared it with other surveys worldwide. Methods A questionnaire with six questions concerning limb and facial weakness, articulation, sensory disturbances, impaired vision, and past diagnosis of stroke was completed door-to-door in a well-defined area of 15 000 people. Questionnaires were considered positive when a participant answered two or more questions about stroke symptoms or the presence of stroke being confirmed by a physician, or at least three questions in the positive, even if not confirmed by a doctor. Results Of the 4496 individuals over 35-years old living in the area, 243 initially screened positive for stroke. The age-adjusted prevalence rate for men was 4 center dot 6% (95% confidence interval 3 center dot 5-5 center dot 7). For women, the prevalence rate was 6 center dot 5% (95% confidence interval 5 center dot 5-7 center dot 5); when considering only one question, the rate was 4 center dot 8% (95% confidence interval 3 center dot 9-5 center dot 7). The most commonly reported symptoms were limb weakness and sensory disturbances. Hypertension and heart disease were the conditions most commonly associated with previous stroke. Conclusion Stroke prevalence rates were higher in this poor neighbourhood compared with other surveys.

A stepwise approach to stroke surveillance in Brazil: the EMMA (Estudo de Mortalidade e Morbidade do Acidente Vascular Cerebral) study

Background Stroke mortality rates in Brazil are the highest in the Americas. Deaths from cerebrovascular disease surpass coronary heart disease. Aim To verify stroke mortality rates and morbidity in an area of Sao Paulo, Brazil, using the World Health Organization Stepwise Approach to Stroke Surveillance. Methods We used the World Health Organization Stepwise Approach to Stroke Surveillance structure of stroke surveillance. The hospital-based data comprised fatal and nonfatal stroke (Step 1). We gathered stroke-related mortality data in the community using World Health Organization questionnaires (Step 2). The questionnaire determining stroke prevalence was activated door to door in a family-health-programme neighbourhood (Step 3). Results A total of 682 patients 18 years and above, including 472 incident cases, presented with cerebrovascular disease and were enrolled in Step 1 during April-May 2009. Cerebral infarction (84 center dot 3%) and first-ever stroke (85 center dot 2%) were the most frequent. In Step 2, 256 deaths from stroke were identified during 2006-2007. Forty-four per cent of deaths were classified as unspecified stroke, 1/3 as ischaemic stroke, and 1/4 due to haemorrhagic subtype. In Step 3, 577 subjects over 35 years old were evaluated at home, and 244 cases of stroke survival were diagnosed via a questionnaire, validated by a board-certified neurologist. The population demographic characteristics were similar in the three steps, except in terms of age and gender. Conclusion By including data from all settings, World Health Organization stroke surveillance can provide data to help plan future resources that meet the needs of the public-health system.