Uso de geotecnologias na análise temporal dos impactos da urbanização na sub-bacia do Córrego Sem Nome em Ilha Solteira/SP

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil - FEIS

Review of The Science, Impacts and Monitoring of Drought in Western Canada: Proceedings of the 2004 Prairie Drought Workshop Edited by Dave Sauchyn, Madhav Khandekar, and E. Ray Garnett

Drought is not an unusual phenomenon on the Canadian prairies or the U.S. Great Plains. There were many short-term droughts in the prairies during the 20th century that generally lasted one to two years (e.g., 1961, 1988). The Canadian prairies multi-year drought event (1999-2003+) has been considered similar in severity to the 1930s drought years. The 2004 Prairie Drought Workshop resulted in 76 scientists and resource managers gathering in Calgary, Alberta, to share information on drought science, impacts, and monitoring. Presenters examined the impacts on agriculture, stream flow, forests, and ground water, including potential impacts under a changed climate. Though focused on the Canadian prairies, the information presented could be applied to many parts of the U.S. Great Plains.

Surface "Waves" on Byrd Glacier, Antarctica

Byrd Glacier has one of the largest ice catchment areas in Antarctica, delivers more ice to the Ross Ice Shelf than any other ice stream, and is the fastest of these ice streams. A force balance, combined with a mass balance, demonstrates that stream flow in Byrd Glacier is transitional from sheet flow in East Antarctica to shelf flow in the Ross Ice Shelf. The longitudinal pulling stress, calculated along an ice flowband from the force balance, is linked to variations of ice thickness, to the ratio of the basal water pressure to the ice overburden pressure where Byrd Glacier is grounded, and is reduced by an ice-shelf buttressing stress where Byrd Glacier is floating. Longitudinal tension peaks at pressure-ratio maxima in grounded ice and close to minima in the ratio of the pulling stress to the buttressing stress in floating ice. The longitudinal spacing of these tension peaks is rather uniform and, for grounded ice, the peaks occur at maxima in surface slope that have no clear relation to the bed slope. This implies that the maxima in surface slope constitute a "wave train" that is related to regular variations in ice-bed coupling, not primarily to bed topography. It is unclear whether these surface "waves" are "standing waves" or are migrating either upslope or downslope, possibly causing the grounding line to either retreat or advance. Deciding which is the case will require obtaining bed topography in the map plane, a new map of surface topography, and more sophisticated modeling that includes ice flow linked to subglacial hydrology in the map plane.

Geometrical Force Balance in Glaciology

The analytical force balance traditionally used in glaciology relates gravitational forcing to ice surface slope for sheet flow and to ice basal buoyancy for shelf flow. It is unable to represent stream flow as a transition from sheet flow to shelf flow by having gravitational forcing gradually passing from being driven by surface slope to being driven by basal buoyancy downslope along the length of an ice steam. This is a serious defect, because ice streams discharge up to 90% of ice from ice sheets into the sea. The defect is overcome by using a geometrical force balance that includes basal buoyancy, represented by the ratio of basal water pressure to ice overburden pressure, as a source of gravitational forcing. When combined with the mass balance, the geometrical force balance provides a holistic approach to ice flow in which resistance to gravitational flow must be summed upstream from the calving front of an ice shelf. This is not done in the analytical force balance, and it provides the ice-thinning rate required by gravitational collapse of ice sheets as interior ice is downdrawn by ice streams.

Calculating Basal Thermal Zones Beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet

A procedure is presented for using a simple flowline model to calculate the fraction of the bed that is thawed beneath present-day ice sheets, and therefore for mapping thawed, frozen, melting and freezing basal thermal zones. The procedure is based on the proposition, easily demonstrated, that variations in surface slope along ice flowlines are due primarily to variations in bed topography and ice-bed coupling, where ice-bed coupling for sheet flow is represented by the basal thawed fraction. This procedure is then applied to the central flowlines of flow bands on the Antarctic ice sheet where accumulation rates, surface elevations and bed topography are mapped with sufficient accuracy, and where sheet flow rather than stream flow prevails. In East Antarctica, the usual condition is a low thawed fraction in subglacial highlands, but a high thawed fraction in subglacial basins and where ice converges on ice streams. This is consistent with a greater depression of the basal melting temperature and a slower rate of conducting basal heat to the surface where ice is thick, and greater basal frictional heat production where ice flow is fast, as expected for steady-state flow. This correlation is reduced or even reversed where steady-state flow has been disrupted recently, notably where ice-stream surges produced the Dibble and Dalton Iceberg Tongues, both of which are now stagnating. In West Antarctica, for ice draining into the Pine Island Bay polynya of the Amundsen Sea, the basal thawed fraction is consistent with a prolonged and ongoing surge of Pine Island Glacier and with a recently initiated surge of Thwaites Glacier. For ice draining into the Ross Ice Shelf, long ice streams extend nearly to the West Antarctic ice divide. Over the rugged bed topography near the ice divide, no correlation consistent with steady-state sheet flow exists between ice thickness and the basal thawed fraction. The bed is wholly thawed beneath ice streams, even where stream flow is slow. This is consistent with ongoing gravitational collapse of ice entering the Ross Sea embayment and with unstable flow in the ice streams.

Extreme River Floods in Western Switzerland and the Lake of Constance Region in the Period Prior to Instrumental Measurements

The floods that occurred on the Aare and Rhine rivers in May 2015 and the mostly successful handling of this event in terms of flood protection measures are a good reminder of how important it is to comprehend the causes and processes involved in such natural hazards. While the needed data series of gauge measurements and peak discharge calculations reach back to the 19th century, historical records dating further back in time can provide additional and useful information to help understanding extreme flood events and to evaluate prevention measures such as river dams and corrections undertaken prior to instrumental measurements. In my PhD project I will use a wide range of historical sources to assess and quantify past extreme flood events. It is part of the SNF-funded project “Reconstruction of the Genesis, Process and Impact of Major Pre-instrumental Flood Events of Major Swiss Rivers Including a Peak Discharge Quantification” and will cover the research locations Fribourg (Saane R.), Burgdorf (Emme R.), Thun, Bern (both Aare R.), and the Lake of Constance at the locations Lindau, Constance and Rorschach. My main goals are to provide a long time series of quantitative data for extreme flood events, to discuss the occurring changes in these data, and to evaluate the impact of the aforementioned human influences on the drainage system. Extracting information given in account books from the towns of Basel and Solothurn may also enable me to assess the frequency and seasonality of less severe river floods. Finally, historical information will be used for remodeling the historical hydrological regime to homogenize the historical data series to modern day conditions and thus make it comparable to the data provided by instrumental measurements. The method I will apply for processing all information provided by historical sources such as chronicles, newspapers, institutional records, as well as flood marks, paintings and archeological evidence has been developed and successfully applied to the site of Basel by Wetter et al. (2011). They have also shown that data homogenization is possible by reconstructing previous stream flow conditions using historical river profiles and by carefully observing and re-constructing human changes of the river bed and its surroundings. Taken all information into account, peak discharges for past extreme flood events will be calculated with a one-dimensional hydrological model.

Transverse drainages of the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania, USA

While large-scale transverse drainages (TDs) such as those of the Susquehanna River above Harrisburg, PA, have been recognized since the 19th century, there have been no systematic surveys done of TDs since that of Ver Steeg's in 1930. Here, the results are presented of a topographic and statistical analysis of TDs in the Susquehanna River basin using Google Earth and associated overlays. 653 TDs were identified in the study area, 95% of which contain streams with discharges of less than 10 m3/s. TD depths ranged from a 23 m deep water gap near Blain, PA, to the 539 m deep gorge of the Juniata River through Jacks Mountain. Although TD depth tended to increase with stream size, many small streams were located in deep gaps, and eight streams with discharges of 10 m3/s or less were found in gorges whose depths matched or exceeded the deepest TD of the Susquehanna, the largest stream in the basin. Streams of less than 10 m3/s made up the majority of TDs regardless of the rock type capping the breached structure. Overall, TDs through sandstone-capped ridges were deeper than those topped by shales, and TDs in both sandstones and shales displayed a lognormal distribution of depths, which may be indicative of a preferred value. Stream flow direction was primarily perpendicular to local structural strike, with 47% of streams flowing NW and 53% flowing SE. 19% of the TDs were found to be in alignment with at least one other TD, with aligned segment lengths ranging from .5 to 14.8 km. The majority of TDs were in rocks of Paleozoic age. The techniques described here allow the frequency and distribution of TDs to be quantified so that they can be integrated into models of basin evolution.

Documentation of sediment cores

The presence of a complex bedform arrangement on the sea-floor of the continental shelf in the western Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, indicates a multi-temporal record of flow related to the activity of one or more ice streams in the past. Mapping and division of the bedforms into distinct landform assemblages reveals their time-transgressive history, which implies that bedforms can neither be considered part of a single down-flow continuum nor a direct proxy for palaeo-ice velocity, as suggested previously. A main control on the bedform imprint is the geology of the shelf, which is divided broadly between rough bedrock on the inner shelf, and smooth, dipping sedimentary strata on the mid-to-outer shelf. Inner shelf bedform variability is well preserved, revealing information about local, complex basal-ice conditions, meltwater flow, and ice dynamics over time. These details, which are not apparent at the scale of regional morphological studies, indicate that past ice streams flowed across the entire shelf, at times, and often had onset zones that lay within the interior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet today. In contrast, highly elongated subglacial bedforms on sedimentary strata of the middle to outer shelf represent a timeslice snapshot of the last activity of ice-stream flow, and may be a truer representation of fast palaeo-ice flow in these locations. A revised model for ice streams on the shelf captures complicated multi-temporal bedform patterns associated with an Antarctic palaeo-ice stream for the first time, and confirms a strong substrate control on this ice stream system that drained the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Late Quaternary.

Simulación de componentes no estacionarias de viento en orografías complejas

Realistic operation of helicopter flight simulators in complex topographies (such as urban environments) requires appropriate prediction of the incoming wind, and this prediction should be made in real time. Unfortunately, the wind topology around complex topographies shows time-dependent, fully nonlinear, turbulent patterns (i.e., wakes) whose simulation cannot be made using computationally inexpensive tools based on corrected potential approximations. Instead, the full Navier-Stokes plus some kind of turbulent modeling is necessary, which is quite computationally expensive. The complete unsteady flow depends on two parameters, namely the velocity and orientation of the free stream flow. The aim of this MSc thesis is to develop a methodology for the real time simulation of these complex flows. For simplicity, the flow around a single building (20 mx20 m cross section and 100 m height) is considered, with free stream velocity in the range 5-25 m/s. Because of the square cross section, the problem shows two reflection symmetries, which allows for restricting the orientations to the range 0° < a. < 45°. The methodology includes an offline preprocess and the online operation. The preprocess consists in three steps: An appropriate, unstructured mesh is selected in which the flow is sim¬ulated using OpenFOAM, and this is done for 33 combinations of 3 free stream intensities and 11 orientations. For each of these, the simulation proceeds for a sufficiently large time as to eliminate transients. This step is quite computationally expensive. Each flow field is post-processed using a combination of proper orthogonal decomposition, fast Fourier transform, and a convenient optimization tool, which identifies the relevant frequencies (namely, both the basic frequencies and their harmonics) and modes in the computational mesh. This combination includes several new ingredients to filter errors out and identify the relevant spatio-temporal patterns. Note that, in principle, the basic frequencies depend on both the intensity and the orientation of the free stream flow. The outcome of this step is a set of modes (vectors containing the three velocity components at all mesh points) for the various Fourier components, intensities, and orientations, which can be organized as a third order tensor. This step is fairly computationally inexpensive. The above mentioned tensor is treated using a combination of truncated high order singular value, decomposition and appropriate one-dimensional interpolation (as in Lorente, Velazquez, Vega, J. Aircraft, 45 (2008) 1779-1788). The outcome is a tensor representation of both the relevant fre¬quencies and the associated Fourier modes for a given pair of values of the free stream flow intensity and orientation. This step is fairly compu¬tationally inexpensive. The online, operation requires just reconstructing the time-dependent flow field from its Fourier representation, which is extremely computationally inex¬pensive. The whole method is quite robust.

Avaliação de conflitos de usos múltiplos de água na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Jaguari - SP, através de simulação computacional

No gerenciamento de recursos hídricos, a bacia hidrográfica é considerada a unidade natural de gestão. Suas características físicas definem um espaço onde a água converge para uma saída comum. O desenvolvimento integrado de uma bacia, bem como os possíveis conflitos ocasionados por demandas concorrentes do mesmo recurso, devem ser administrados respeitando esse conceito de unidade. No caso específico da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Jaguari, existe uma crescente preocupação relacionada aos usos múltiplos da água superficial. O rio Jaguari, importante afluente do Paraíba do Sul no estado de São Paulo, tem suas águas represadas para geração de energia elétrica e regularização de vazões. Nos últimos anos, tem-se constatado um crescente rebaixamento dos níveis operacionais da represa do Jaguari. Segundo estudos da sociedade civil organizada local, a tendência é de esgotamento do reservatório em poucos anos. Este trabalho aborda a questão do rebaixamento dos níveis de Jaguari através da aplicação do software DHI Mike Basin 2000. Trata-se de um simulador genérico para sistemas de recursos hídricos, de ampla aplicação. A bacia do Jaguari é representada em um modelo matemático e são simulados quatro cenários distintos de usos de água na bacia. Verifica-se que o problema é real e requer uma intervenção multi-institucional para ser solucionado.

Nanotechnology and microfluidics:formulation design and on-chip manufacture of nanoparticles

Nanoparticles offer an ideal platform for the delivery of small molecule drugs, subunit vaccines and genetic constructs. Besides the necessity of a homogenous size distribution, defined loading efficiencies and reasonable production and development costs, one of the major bottlenecks in translating nanoparticles into clinical application is the need for rapid, robust and reproducible development techniques. Within this thesis, microfluidic methods were investigated for the manufacturing, drug or protein loading and purification of pharmaceutically relevant nanoparticles. Initially, methods to prepare small liposomes were evaluated and compared to a microfluidics-directed nanoprecipitation method. To support the implementation of statistical process control, design of experiment models aided the process robustness and validation for the methods investigated and gave an initial overview of the size ranges obtainable in each method whilst evaluating advantages and disadvantages of each method. The lab-on-a-chip system resulted in a high-throughput vesicle manufacturing, enabling a rapid process and a high degree of process control. To further investigate this method, cationic low transition temperature lipids, cationic bola-amphiphiles with delocalized charge centers, neutral lipids and polymers were used in the microfluidics-directed nanoprecipitation method to formulate vesicles. Whereas the total flow rate (TFR) and the ratio of solvent to aqueous stream (flow rate ratio, FRR) was shown to be influential for controlling the vesicle size in high transition temperature lipids, the factor FRR was found the most influential factor controlling the size of vesicles consisting of low transition temperature lipids and polymer-based nanoparticles. The biological activity of the resulting constructs was confirmed by an invitro transfection of pDNA constructs using cationic nanoprecipitated vesicles. Design of experiments and multivariate data analysis revealed the mathematical relationship and significance of the factors TFR and FRR in the microfluidics process to the liposome size, polydispersity and transfection efficiency. Multivariate tools were used to cluster and predict specific in-vivo immune responses dependent on key liposome adjuvant characteristics upon delivery a tuberculosis antigen in a vaccine candidate. The addition of a low solubility model drug (propofol) in the nanoprecipitation method resulted in a significantly higher solubilisation of the drug within the liposomal bilayer, compared to the control method. The microfluidics method underwent scale-up work by increasing the channel diameter and parallelisation of the mixers in a planar way, resulting in an overall 40-fold increase in throughput. Furthermore, microfluidic tools were developed based on a microfluidics-directed tangential flow filtration, which allowed for a continuous manufacturing, purification and concentration of liposomal drug products.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.

ANÁLISIS DE TENDENCIAS HIDROCLIMÁTICAS DE DOS CUENCAS REPRESENTATIVAS DE ISLA DE PUERTO RICO

El agua junto a las variaciones climáticas, encabezan discursos políticos y científicos globales en los que resurgen los debates sobre los conflictos acerca de este recurso, la geopolítica del agua, la gestión, la contaminación y la polución. Ante este panorama el IPCC (Panel Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático), la Organización Mundial de Meteorología (OMM),el Programa de la Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente (PNUMA) y distintas organizaciones medioambientales hanenfocado sus intereses científicos en estudios en los cuales se utilicen indicadores hidroclimáticos. En este contexto, este artículo analiza la evolución hidroclimática reciente en dos cuencas principales de la isla de Puerto Rico, utilizando como indicadores las temperaturas, las precipitaciones y los caudales de distintas estaciones de NOAA y el USGS. Inicialmente analizamos cada estación individualmente y luego se hizo un análisis conjunto de la cuenca. Con los resultados obtenidos,en ninguna de las cuencas se pudo establecer tendencias claras en cuanto a la precipitación total anual. Aunque algunas estaciones mostraron tendencias positivas y otras regresivas, ninguna alcanzó valores estadísticamente significativos que permita rechazar la hipótesis nula de no tendencia. Nuestro análisis indica también que en una cuenca la temperatura media anual mostró un ligero aumento, mientras que en la otra la temperatura manifestó descendió. Por otro lado, el volumen de agua anual que discurre por las cuencas ha disminuido en ambos ríos donde se pudo rechazar la hipótesis nula de no tendencia con el análisis de Mann-Kendall. No obstante, existen otros factores que no fueron objeto de estudio en este análisis y que tienen impactos sobre los recursos hídricos, así como los distintos mosaicos paisajísticos que componen una cuenca hidrográfica.Palabras Claves: recursos hídricos, tendencias hidroclimáticas, cambio climático.ABSTRACTToday, water resources and climatic oscillations dominate all political and scientific discourses where the principal debate is focused on water management, water pollution and the geopolitics of this resource. Against this background, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change), WMO(World Meteorology Organization), the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and other environmental organizations have focused their scientific research on hydro-climatic evolution. In this context, this article examines recent developments in hydro-climatic evolution on two mainrivers in Puerto Rico, using temperature, rainfall, stream-flow and discharge data from NOAA climatic stations and USGS hydrological stations. Initially, we analyze data from each individual station and then make an integrated analysis of the basins. With the obtained results, in none of the basins was it possible to establish clear trends as to total annual precipitation. Though some stations showed positive trends and others regressive, none reached statistically significant values.Our analysis also indicates that in one basin the annual average temperature showed a slight increase, whereas in the other basin a temperature decrease was confirmed. On the other hand, the volume of annual discharge from both rivers showed a decrease. However, there are other factors that were not considered in this analysis, such as land use, that impact water resources and the various landscape mosaics comprising a watershed.Key Words: water resources, hydro-climatic evolution, climate change

The dynamics of biofilm bacterial communities is driven by flow wax and wane in a temporary stream

Biofilm communities are exposed to long periods of desiccation in temporary streams. We investigated how water flow intermittency affected the bacterial community structure colonizing three different streambed compartments in a Mediterranean stream. Massive parallel sequencing revealed different bacterial communities in biofilms from sand sediments and cobbles. Bacterial communities were similar (62% of shared operational taxonomic units) in the epipsammic and hyporheic biofilms, and more diverse than those in the epilithic biofilms. The non-flow phase caused a decrease of bacterial diversity in the biofilms, when communities included only bacterial taxa assumed to be adapted to water stress. The most sensitive bacterial communities to flow intermittency were in the epilithic, where the exposure to physical stress was the highest. In sand sediments a wide group of bacterial taxa was tolerant to desiccation. During non-flow the proliferation of opportunistic taxa in the superficial compartments evidenced the biological link with the terrestrial environment. Bacterial communities better tolerate rewetting than desiccation, since a major number of taxa tolerant to rewetting occurred in all biofilms. Overall, bacterial communities in sandy compartments showed higher resistance to flow intermittency than those in epilithic biofilms