LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A GENERAL STOCHASTIC RUMOUR MODEL

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in it.

Wavelet analysis of MODIS time series to detect expansion and intensification of row-crop agriculture in Brazil

Since 2000, the southwestern Brazilian Amazon has undergone a rapid transformation from natural vegetation and pastures to row-crop agricultural with the potential to affect regional biogeochemistry. The goals of this research are to assess wavelet algorithms applied to MODIS time series to determine expansion of row-crops and intensification of the number of crops grown. MODIS provides data from February 2000 to present, a period of agricultural expansion and intensification in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon. We have selected a study area near Comodoro, Mato Grosso because of the rapid growth of row-crop agriculture and availability of ground truth data of agricultural land-use history. We used a 90% power wavelet transform to create a wavelet-smoothed time series for five years of MODIS EVI data. From this wavelet-smoothed time series we determine characteristic phenology of single and double crops. We estimate that over 3200 km(2) were converted from native vegetation and pasture to row-crop agriculture from 2000 to 2005 in our study area encompassing 40,000 km(2). We observe an increase of 2000 km(2) of agricultural intensification, where areas of single crops were converted to double crops during the study period. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thermal expansion of the V(5)Si(3) and T(2) phases of the V-Si-B system investigated by high-temperature X-ray diffraction

The thermal expansion anisotropy of the V(5)Si(3) and T(2)-phase of the V-Si-B system were determined by high-temperature X-ray diffraction from 298 to 1273 K. Alloys with nominal compositions V(62.5)Si(37.5) (V5Si3 phase) and V(63)Si(12)B(25) (T(2)-phase) were prepared from high-purity materials through arc-melting followed by heat-treatment at 1873 K by 24 h, under argon atmosphere. The V(5)Si(3) phase exhibits thermal expansion anisotropy equals to 1.3, with thermal expansion coefficients along the a and c-axis equal to 9.3 x 10(-6) K(-1) and 11.7 x 10(-6) K(-1), respectively. Similarly, the thermal expansion anisotropy value of the T(2)-phase is 0.9 with thermal expansion coefficients equal to 8.8 x 10(-6) K(-1) and 8.3 x 10(-6) K(-1) along the, a and c-axis respectively. Compared to other isostructural silicides of the 5:3 type and the Ti(5)Si(3) phase, the V(5)Si(3) phase presents lower thermal expansion anisotropy. The T(2)-phase present in the V-Si-B system exhibits low thermal expansion anisotropy, as the T(2)-phase of the Mo-Si-B, Nb-Si-B and W-Si-B systems. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combined heuristic with fuzzy system to transmission system expansion planning

A heuristic algorithm that employs fuzzy logic is proposed to the power system transmission expansion planning problem. The algorithm is based on the divide to conquer strategy, which is controlled by the fuzzy system. The algorithm provides high quality solutions with the use of fuzzy decision making, which is based on nondeterministic criteria to guide the search. The fuzzy system provides a self-adjusting mechanism that eliminates the manual adjustment of parameters to each system being solved. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bending of stochastic Kirchhoff plates on Winkler foundations via the Galerkin method and the Askey-Wiener scheme

In this paper, the method of Galerkin and the Askey-Wiener scheme are used to obtain approximate solutions to the stochastic displacement response of Kirchhoff plates with uncertain parameters. Theoretical and numerical results are presented. The Lax-Milgram lemma is used to express the conditions for existence and uniqueness of the solution. Uncertainties in plate and foundation stiffness are modeled by respecting these conditions, hence using Legendre polynomials indexed in uniform random variables. The space of approximate solutions is built using results of density between the space of continuous functions and Sobolev spaces. Approximate Galerkin solutions are compared with results of Monte Carlo simulation, in terms of first and second order moments and in terms of histograms of the displacement response. Numerical results for two example problems show very fast convergence to the exact solution, at excellent accuracies. The Askey-Wiener Galerkin scheme developed herein is able to reproduce the histogram of the displacement response. The scheme is shown to be a theoretically sound and efficient method for the solution of stochastic problems in engineering. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chaos-Galerkin solution of stochastic Timoshenko bending problems

This paper presents an accurate and efficient solution for the random transverse and angular displacement fields of uncertain Timoshenko beams. Approximate, numerical solutions are obtained using the Galerkin method and chaos polynomials. The Chaos-Galerkin scheme is constructed by respecting the theoretical conditions for existence and uniqueness of the solution. Numerical results show fast convergence to the exact solution, at excellent accuracies. The developed Chaos-Galerkin scheme accurately approximates the complete cumulative distribution function of the displacement responses. The Chaos-Galerkin scheme developed herein is a theoretically sound and efficient method for the solution of stochastic problems in engineering. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galerkin Solution of Stochastic Beam Bending on Winkler Foundations

In this paper, the Askey-Wiener scheme and the Galerkin method are used to obtain approximate solutions to stochastic beam bending on Winkler foundation. The study addresses Euler-Bernoulli beams with uncertainty in the bending stiffness modulus and in the stiffness of the foundation. Uncertainties are represented by parameterized stochastic processes. The random behavior of beam response is modeled using the Askey-Wiener scheme. One contribution of the paper is a sketch of proof of existence and uniqueness of the solution to problems involving fourth order operators applied to random fields. From the approximate Galerkin solution, expected value and variance of beam displacement responses are derived, and compared with corresponding estimates obtained via Monte Carlo simulation. Results show very fast convergence and excellent accuracies in comparison to Monte Carlo simulation. The Askey-Wiener Galerkin scheme presented herein is shown to be a theoretically solid and numerically efficient method for the solution of stochastic problems in engineering.

Internal Residual Stresses in Sintered and Commercial Low Expansion Li(2)O-Al(2)O(3)-SiO(2) Glass-Ceramics

We performed Synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of internal residual stresses in monolithic samples of a newly developed Li(2)O-Al(2)O(3)-SiO(2) (LAS) glass-ceramic produced by sintering and in a commercial LAS glass-ceramic, CERAN (R), produced by the traditional crystal nucleation and growth treatments. The elastic constants were measured by instrumented indentation and a pulse-echo technique. The thermal expansion coefficient of virgilite was determined by high temperature XRD and dilatometry. The c-axis contracts with the increasing temperature whereas the a-axis does not vary significantly. Microcracking of the microstructure affects the thermal expansion coefficients measured by dilatometry and thermal expansion hysteresis is observed for the sintered glass-ceramic as well as for CERAN (R). The measured internal stress is quite low for both glass-ceramics and can be explained by theoretical modeling if the high volume fraction of the crystalline phase (virgilite) is considered. Using a modified Green model, the calculated critical (glass) island diameter for spontaneous cracking agreed with experimental observations. The experimental data collected also allowed the calculation of the critical crystal grain diameters for grain-boundary microcracking due to the anisotropy of thermal expansion of virgilite and for microcracking in the residual glass phase surrounding the virgilite particles. All these parameters are important for the successful microstructural design of sintered glass-ceramics.

Numerical solution of the two-phase expansion of a metastable flashing liquid jet using the dispersion-controlled dissipative scheme

This paper presents a study of the stationary phenomenon of superheated or metastable liquid jets, flashing into a two-dimensional axisymmetric domain, while in the two-phase region. In general, the phenomenon starts off when a high-pressure, high-temperature liquid jet emerges from a small nozzle or orifice expanding into a low-pressure chamber, below its saturation pressure taken at the injection temperature. As the process evolves, crossing the saturation curve, one observes that the fluid remains in the liquid phase reaching a superheated condition. Then, the liquid undergoes an abrupt phase change by means of an oblique evaporation wave. Across this phase change the superheated liquid becomes a two-phase high-speed mixture in various directions, expanding to supersonic velocities. In order to reach the downstream pressure, the supersonic fluid continues to expand, crossing a complex bow shock wave. The balance equations that govern the phenomenon are mass conservation, momentum conservation, and energy conservation, plus an equation-of-state for the substance. A false-transient model is implemented using the shock capturing scheme: dispersion-controlled dissipative (DCD), which was used to calculate the flow conditions as the steady-state condition is reached. Numerical results with computational code DCD-2D vI have been analyzed. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Minimizing total tardiness in a stochastic single machine scheduling problem using approximate dynamic programming

This paper addresses the non-preemptive single machine scheduling problem to minimize total tardiness. We are interested in the online version of this problem, where orders arrive at the system at random times. Jobs have to be scheduled without knowledge of what jobs will come afterwards. The processing times and the due dates become known when the order is placed. The order release date occurs only at the beginning of periodic intervals. A customized approximate dynamic programming method is introduced for this problem. The authors also present numerical experiments that assess the reliability of the new approach and show that it performs better than a myopic policy.

Stochastic stability analysis for the constant-modulus algorithm

We derive an easy-to-compute approximate bound for the range of step-sizes for which the constant-modulus algorithm (CMA) will remain stable if initialized close to a minimum of the CM cost function. Our model highlights the influence, of the signal constellation used in the transmission system: for smaller variation in the modulus of the transmitted symbols, the algorithm will be more robust, and the steady-state misadjustment will be smaller. The theoretical results are validated through several simulations, for long and short filters and channels.

SELF-SIMILARITY AND LAMPERTI CONVERGENCE FOR FAMILIES OF STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

We define a new type of self-similarity for one-parameter families of stochastic processes, which applies to certain important families of processes that are not self-similar in the conventional sense. This includes Hougaard Levy processes such as the Poisson processes, Brownian motions with drift and the inverse Gaussian processes, and some new fractional Hougaard motions defined as moving averages of Hougaard Levy process. Such families have many properties in common with ordinary self-similar processes, including the form of their covariance functions, and the fact that they appear as limits in a Lamperti-type limit theorem for families of stochastic processes.

SacRALF1, a peptide signal from the grass sugarcane (Saccharum spp.), is potentially involved in the regulation of tissue expansion

Rapid alkalinization factor (RALF) is part of a growing family of small peptides with hormone characteristics in plants. Initially isolated from leaves of tobacco plants, RALF peptides can be found throughout the plant kingdom and they are expressed ubiquitously in plants. We took advantage of the small gene family size of RALF genes in sugarcane and the ordered cellular growth of the grass sugarcane leaves to gain information about the function of RALF peptides in plants. Here we report the isolation of two RALF peptides from leaves of sugarcane plants using the alkalinization assay. SacRALF1 was the most abundant and, when added to culture media, inhibited growth of microcalli derived from cell suspension cultures at concentrations as low as 0.1 mu M. Microcalli exposed to exogenous SacRALF1 for 5 days showed a reduced number of elongated cells. Only four copies of SacRALF genes were found in sugarcane plants. All four SacRALF genes are highly expressed in young and expanding leaves and show a low or undetectable level of expression in expanded leaves. In half-emerged leaf blades, SacRALF transcripts were found at high levels at the basal portion of the leaf and at low levels at the apical portion. Gene expression analyzes localize SacRALF genes in elongation zones of roots and leaves. Mature leaves, which are devoid of expanding cells, do not show considerable expression of SacRALF genes. Our findings are consistent with SacRALF genes playing a role in plant development potentially regulating tissue expansion.

Environmental, land-use and economic implications of Brazilian sugarcane expansion 1996-2006

Governments are promoting biofuels and the resulting changes in land use and crop reallocation to biofuels production have raised concerns about impacts on environment and food security. The promotion of biofuels has also been questioned based on suggested marginal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction, partly due to induced land use change causing greenhouse gas emissions. This study reports how the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil during 1996-2006 affected indicators for environment, land use and economy. The results indicate that sugarcane expansion did not in general contribute to direct deforestation in the traditional agricultural region where most of the expansion took place. The amount of forests on farmland in this area is below the minimum stated in law and the situation did not change over the studied period. Sugarcane expansion resulted in a significant reduction of pastures and cattle heads and higher economic growth than in neighboring areas. It could not be established to what extent the discontinuation of cattle production induced expansion of pastures in other areas, possibly leading to indirect deforestation. However, the results indicate that a possible migration of the cattle production reached further than the neighboring of expansion regions. Occurring at much smaller rates, expansion of sugarcane in regions such as the Amazon and the Northeast region was related to direct deforestation and competition with food crops, and appear not to have induced economic growth. These regions are not expected to experience substantial increases of sugarcane in the near future, but mitigating measures are warranted.