State-dependent microstructural white matter changes in bipolar I depression

Abnormalities in fronto-limbic-striatal white matter (WM) have been reported in bipolar disorder (BD), but results have been inconsistent across studies. Furthermore, there have been no detailed investigations as to whether acute mood states contribute to microstructural changes in WM tracts. In order to compare fiber density and structural integrity within WM tracts between BD depression and remission, whole-brain fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) were assessed in 37 bipolar I disorder (BD-I) patients (16 depressed and 21 remitted), and 26 healthy individuals with diffusion tensor imaging. Significantly decreased FA and increased MD in bilateral prefronto-limbic-striatal white matter and right inferior fronto-occipital, superior and inferior longitudinal fasciculi were shown in all BD-I patients versus controls, as well as in depressed BD-I patients compared to both controls and remitted BD-I patients. Depressed BD-I patients also exhibited increased FA in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Remitted BD-I patients did not differ from controls in FA or MD. These findings suggest that BD-I depression may be associated with acute microstructural WM changes.

Impulsive Partial Hyperbolic Functional Differential Equations of Fractional Order with State-Dependent Delay

MSC 2010: 26A33, 34A37, 34K37, 34K40, 35R11

The Maximal Number of Particles in a Branching Process with State-Dependent Immigration

AMS subject classification: 60J80, 60J15.

Branching Processes in Autoregressive Random Environment

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 60K05.

Maintenance strategy optimization using a continuous-state partially observable semi-Markov decision process

Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the estimates of asset health states may contain some uncertainties. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of asset health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when asset health inspections are imperfect. However, existing applications of the POMDP to maintenance decision-making largely adopt the discrete time and state assumptions. The discrete-time assumption requires the health state transitions and maintenance activities only happen at discrete epochs, which cannot model the failure time accurately and is not cost-effective. The discrete health state assumption, on the other hand, may not be elaborate enough to improve the effectiveness of maintenance. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP). An algorithm that combines the Monte Carlo-based density projection method and the policy iteration is developed to solve the POSMDP. Different types of maintenance activities (i.e., inspections, replacement, and imperfect maintenance) are considered in this paper. The next maintenance action and the corresponding waiting durations are optimized jointly to minimize the long-run expected cost per unit time and availability. The result of simulation studies shows that the proposed maintenance optimization approach is more cost-effective than maintenance strategies derived by another two approximate methods, when regular inspection intervals are adopted. The simulation study also shows that the maintenance cost can be further reduced by developing maintenance strategies with state-dependent maintenance intervals using the POSMDP. In addition, during the simulation studies the proposed POSMDP shows the ability to adopt a cost-effective strategy structure when multiple types of maintenance activities are involved.

Neuronal mechanism of state control in Drosophila melanogaster

The changes in internal states, such as fear, hunger and sleep affect behavioral responses in animals. In most of the cases, these state-dependent influences are “pleiotropic”: one state affects multiple sensory modalities and behaviors; “scalable”: the strengths and choices of such modulations differ depending on the imminence of demands; and “persistent”: once the state is switched on the effects last even after the internal demands are off. These prominent features of state-control enable animals to adjust their behavioral responses depending on their internal demands. Here, we studied the neuronal mechanisms of state-controls by investigating energy-deprived state (hunger state) and social-deprived state of fruit flies, Drosophila melanogaster, as prototypic models. To approach these questions, we developed two novel methods: a genetically based method to map sites of neuromodulation in the brain and optogenetic tools in Drosophila.

These methods, and genetic perturbations, reveal that the effect of hunger to alter behavioral sensitivity to gustatory cues is mediate by two distinct neuromodulatory pathways. The neuropeptide F (NPF) – dopamine (DA) pathway increases sugar sensitivity under mild starvation, while the adipokinetic hormone (AKH)- short neuropeptide F (sNPF) pathway decreases bitter sensitivity under severe starvation. These two pathways are recruited under different levels of energy demands without any cross interaction. Effects of both of the pathways are mediated by modulation of the gustatory sensory neurons, which reinforce the concept that sensory neurons constitute an important locus for state-dependent control of behaviors. Our data suggests that multiple independent neuromodulatory pathways are underlying pleiotropic and scalable effects of the hunger state.

In addition, using optogenetic tool, we show that the neural control of male courtship song can be separated into probabilistic/biasing, and deterministic/command-like components. The former, but not the latter, neurons are subject to functional modulation by social experience, supporting the idea that they constitute a locus of state-dependent influence. Interestingly, moreover, brief activation of the former, but not the latter, neurons trigger persistent behavioral response for more than 10 min. Altogether, these findings and new tools described in this dissertation offer new entry points for future researchers to understand the neuronal mechanism of state control.

Differential amplitude modulation of auditory evoked cortical potentials associated with brain state in the freely moving rhesus monkey

We simultaneously recorded auditory evoked potentials (AEP) from the temporal cortex (TCx), the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dPFCx) and the parietal cortex (PCx) in the freely moving rhesus monkey to investigate state-dependent changes of the AEP. AEPs obtained during passive wakefulness, active wakefulness (AW), slow wave sleep and rapid-eye-movement sleep (REM) were compared. Results showed that AEP from all three cerebral areas were modulated by brain states. However, the amplitude of AEP from dPFCx and PCx significantly appeared greater attenuation than that from the TCx during AW and REM. These results indicate that the modulation of brain state on AEP from all three cerebral areas investigated is not uniform, which suggests that different cerebral areas have differential functional contributions during sleep-wake cycle. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Age-specific reproductive investment in female burying beetles: independent effects of state and risk of death

1.How much should an individual invest in reproduction as it grows older? Answering this question involves determining whether individuals measure their age as the time left for future reproduction or as the rate of deterioration in their state. Theory suggests that in the former case individuals should increase their allocation of resources to reproduction as opportunities for future breeding dwindle, and terminally invest when they breed for the last time. In the latter case they should reduce their investment in reproduction with age, either through adaptive reproductive restraint or as a passive by-product of senescence.
2.Here we present the results of experiments on female burying beetles, Nicrophorus vespilloides, in which we independently manipulated the perceived risk of death (by activating the immune system) and the extent of deterioration in state (by changing age of first reproduction and/or prior investment in reproduction).
3.We found that the risk of death and state each independently influenced the extent of reproductive investment. Specifically, we found a state-dependent decline in reproductive investment as females grew older that could be attributed to both adaptive reproductive restraint and senescence. A perceived increase in the risk of death, induced by activation of the immune system, caused females to switch from a strategy of reproductive restraint to terminal investment. Nevertheless, absolute reproductive investment was lower in older females, indicating constraints of senescence.
4.Our results show that a decline in reproductive investment with age does not necessarily constitute evidence of reproductive senescence but can also result from adaptive reproductive restraint.
5.Our results further suggest that the extent of reproductive investment is dependent on several different intrinsic cues and that the particular blend of cues available at any given age can yield very different patterns of investment. Perhaps this explains why age-related reproductive investment patterns seen in nature are so diverse.

A rate and state friction law for saline ice

Sea ice friction models are necessary to predict the nature of interactions between sea ice floes. These interactions are of interest on a range of scales, for example, to predict loads on engineering structures in icy waters or to understand the basin-scale motion of sea ice. Many models use Amonton's friction law due to its simplicity. More advanced models allow for hydrodynamic lubrication and refreezing of asperities; however, modeling these processes leads to greatly increased complexity. In this paper we propose, by analogy with rock physics, that a rate- and state-dependent friction law allows us to incorporate memory (and thus the effects of lubrication and bonding) into ice friction models without a great increase in complexity. We support this proposal with experimental data on both the laboratory (∼0.1 m) and ice tank (∼1 m) scale. These experiments show that the effects of static contact under normal load can be incorporated into a friction model. We find the parameters for a first-order rate and state model to be A = 0.310, B = 0.382, and μ0 = 0.872. Such a model then allows us to make predictions about the nature of memory effects in moving ice-ice contacts.

Nonlinear state estimation and control for chaos suppression in MEMS resonator

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nonlinear state estimation and control applied to a manipulator robotic including drive motor

A robotic control design considering all the inherent nonlinearities of the robot engine configuration is developed. The interactions between the robot and joint motor drive mechanism are considered. The proposed control combines two strategies, one feedforward control in order to maintain the system in the desired coordinate, and feedback control system to take the system into a desired coordinate. The feedback control is obtained using State Dependent Riccati Equation (SDRE). For link positioning two cases are considered. Case 1: For control positioning, it is only used motor voltage; Case 2: For control positioning, it is used both motor voltage and torque between the links. Simulation results, including parametric uncertainties in control shows the feasibility of the proposed control for the considered system.

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Optimizing search strategies for invasive pests: Learn before you leap

Strategic searching for invasive pests presents a formidable challenge for conservation managers. Limited funding can necessitate choosing between surveying many sites cursorily, or focussing intensively on fewer sites. While existing knowledge may help to target more likely sites, e.g. with species distribution models (maps), this knowledge is not flawless and improving it also requires management investment. 2.In a rare example of trading-off action against knowledge gain, we combine search coverage and accuracy, and its future improvement, within a single optimisation framework. More specifically we examine under which circumstances managers should adopt one of two search-and-control strategies (cursory or focussed), and when they should divert funding to improving knowledge, making better predictive maps that benefit future searches. 3.We use a family of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to reflect the quality of maps that direct search efforts. We demonstrate our framework by linking these to a logistic model of invasive spread such as that for the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta in south-east Queensland, Australia. 4.Cursory widespread searching is only optimal if the pest is already widespread or knowledge is poor, otherwise focussed searching exploiting the map is preferable. For longer management timeframes, eradication is more likely if funds are initially devoted to improving knowledge, even if this results in a short-term explosion of the pest population. 5.Synthesis and applications. By combining trade-offs between knowledge acquisition and utilization, managers can better focus - and justify - their spending to achieve optimal results in invasive control efforts. This framework can improve the efficiency of any ecological management that relies on predicting occurrence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2010 British Ecological Society.