Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012

BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

Temporal characteristics of melanopsin inputs to the human pupil light reflex

Rods, cones and melanopsin containing intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (ipRGCs) operate in concert to regulate pupil diameter. The temporal properties of intrinsic ipRGC signalling are distinct to those of rods and cones, including longer latencies and sustained signalling after light offset. We examined whether the melanopsin mediated post-illumination pupil response (PIPR) and pupil constriction were dependent upon the inter-stimulus interval (ISI) between successive light pulses and the temporal frequency of sinusoidal light stimuli. Melanopsin excitation was altered by variation of stimulus wavelength (464 nm and 638 nm lights) and irradiance (11.4 and 15.2 log photons cm(-2) s(-1)). We found that 6s PIPR amplitude was independent of ISI and temporal frequency for all melanopsin excitation levels, indicating complete summation. In contrast to the PIPR, the maximum pupil constriction increased with increasing ISI with high and low melanopsin excitation, but time to minimum diameter was slower with high melanopsin excitation only. This melanopsin response to briefly presented pulses (16 and 100 ms) slows the temporal response of the maximum pupil constriction. We also demonstrate that high melanopsin excitation attenuates the phasic peak-trough pupil amplitude compared to conditions with low melanopsin excitation, indicating an interaction between inner and outer retinal inputs to the pupil light reflex. We infer that outer retina summation is important for rapidly controlling pupil diameter in response to short timescale fluctuations in illumination and may occur at two potential sites, one that is presynaptic to extrinsic photoreceptor input to ipRGCs, or another within the pupil control pathway if ipRGCs have differential temporal tuning to extrinsic and intrinsic signalling.

Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

Quantifying the state of populations and effects of disturbances at large spatio-temporal scales: The case of coral populations in the great barrier reef

This project was a step forward in applying statistical methods and models to provide new insights for more informed decision-making at large spatial scales. The model has been designed to address complicated effects of ecological processes that govern the state of populations and uncertainties inherent in large spatio-temporal datasets. Specifically, the thesis contributes to better understanding and management of the Great Barrier Reef.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. This study explored spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of locally-acquired dengue cases in Queensland State, Australia and identified target areas for effective interventions. A computerised locally-acquired dengue case dataset was collected from Queensland Health for Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Dengue hot spots were detected using SatScan method. Descriptive spatial analysis showed that a total of 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in central and northern regions of tropical Queensland. A seasonal pattern was observed with most of the cases occurring in autumn. Spatial and temporal variation of dengue cases was observed in the geographic areas affected by dengue over time. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in tropical Queensland, Australia. There is a clear evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of dengue and these clusters varied over time. These findings enabled us to detect and target dengue clusters suggesting that the use of geospatial information can assist the health authority in planning dengue control activities and it would allow for better design and implementation of dengue management programs.

Spatio-temporal modelling of cancer data in Queensland using Bayesian methods

Cancer is the leading contributor to the disease burden in Australia. This thesis develops and applies Bayesian hierarchical models to facilitate an investigation of the spatial and temporal associations for cancer diagnosis and survival among Queenslanders. The key objectives are to document and quantify the importance of spatial inequalities, explore factors influencing these inequalities, and investigate how spatial inequalities change over time. Existing Bayesian hierarchical models are refined, new models and methods developed, and tangible benefits obtained for cancer patients in Queensland. The versatility of using Bayesian models in cancer control are clearly demonstrated through these detailed and comprehensive analyses.

On the order of the fractional Laplacian in determining the spatio-temporal evolution of a space-fractional model of cardiac electrophysiology

Space-fractional operators have been used with success in a variety of practical applications to describe transport processes in media characterised by spatial connectivity properties and high structural heterogeneity altering the classical laws of diffusion. This study provides a systematic investigation of the spatio-temporal effects of a space-fractional model in cardiac electrophysiology. We consider a simplified model of electrical pulse propagation through cardiac tissue, namely the monodomain formulation of the Beeler-Reuter cell model on insulated tissue fibres, and obtain a space-fractional modification of the model by using the spectral definition of the one-dimensional continuous fractional Laplacian. The spectral decomposition of the fractional operator allows us to develop an efficient numerical method for the space-fractional problem. Particular attention is paid to the role played by the fractional operator in determining the solution behaviour and to the identification of crucial differences between the non-fractional and the fractional cases. We find a positive linear dependence of the depolarization peak height and a power law decay of notch and dome peak amplitudes for decreasing orders of the fractional operator. Furthermore, we establish a quadratic relationship in conduction velocity, and quantify the increasingly wider action potential foot and more pronounced dispersion of action potential duration, as the fractional order is decreased. A discussion of the physiological interpretation of the presented findings is made.

A dynamical approach to the spatio-temporal features of the Portevin-Le Chatelier effect

We show that the extended Ananthakrishna's model exhibits all the features of the Portevin - Le Chatelier effect including the three types of bands. The model reproduces the recently observed crossover from a low dimensional chaotic state at low and medium strain rates to a high dimensional power law state of stress drops at high strain rates. The dynamics of crossover is elucidated through a study of the Lyapunov spectrum.

A Real-time clustering system for spatio-temporal signals from network of neurons

Over past few years, the studies of cultured neuronal networks have opened up avenues for understanding the ion channels, receptor molecules, and synaptic plasticity that may form the basis of learning and memory. The hippocampal neurons from rats are dissociated and cultured on a surface containing a grid of 64 electrodes. The signals from these 64 electrodes are acquired using a fast data acquisition system MED64 (Alpha MED Sciences, Japan) at a sampling rate of 20 K samples with a precision of 16-bits per sample. A few minutes of acquired data runs in to a few hundreds of Mega Bytes. The data processing for the neural analysis is highly compute-intensive because the volume of data is huge. The major processing requirements are noise removal, pattern recovery, pattern matching, clustering and so on. In order to interface a neuronal colony to a physical world, these computations need to be performed in real-time. A single processor such as a desk top computer may not be adequate to meet this computational requirements. Parallel computing is a method used to satisfy the real-time computational requirements of a neuronal system that interacts with an external world while increasing the flexibility and scalability of the application. In this work, we developed a parallel neuronal system using a multi-node Digital Signal processing system. With 8 processors, the system is able to compute and map incoming signals segmented over a period of 200 ms in to an action in a trained cluster system in real time.

Land Surface Temperature with Land Cover Dynamics:Multi-Resolution, Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis of Greater Bangalore

Bangalore is experiencing unprecedented urbanisation in recent times due to concentrated developmental activities with impetus on IT (Information Technology) and BT (Biotechnology) sectors. The concentrated developmental activities has resulted in the increase in population and consequent pressure on infrastructure, natural resources, ultimately giving rise to a plethora of serious challenges such as urban flooding, climate change, etc. One of the perceived impact at local levels is the increase in sensible heat flux from the land surface to the atmosphere, which is also referred as heat island effect. In this communication, we report the changes in land surface temperature (LST) with respect to land cover changes during 1973 to 2007. A novel technique combining the information from sub-pixel class proportions with information from classified image (using signatures of the respective classes collected from the ground) has been used to achieve more reliable classification. The analysis showed positive correlation with the increase in paved surfaces and LST. 466% increase in paved surfaces (buildings, roads, etc.) has lead to the increase in LST by about 2 ºC during the last 2 decades, confirming urban heat island phenomenon. LSTs’ were relatively lower (~ 4 to 7 ºC) at land uses such as vegetation (parks/forests) and water bodies which act as heat sinks.

Spatio-temporal landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watersheds of Central Western Ghats

Natural hazards such as landslides are triggered by numerous factors such as ground movements, rock falls, slope failure, debris flows, slope instability, etc. Changes in slope stability happen due to human intervention, anthropogenic activities, change in soil structure, loss or absence of vegetation (changes in land cover), etc. Loss of vegetation happens when the forest is fragmented due to anthropogenic activities. Hence land cover mapping with forest fragmentation can provide vital information for visualising the regions that require immediate attention from slope stability aspects. The main objective of this paper is to understand the rate of change in forest landscape from 1973 to 2004 through multi-sensor remote sensing data analysis. The forest fragmentation index presented here is based on temporal land use information and forest fragmentation model, in which the forest pixels are classified as patch, transitional, edge, perforated, and interior, that give a measure of forest continuity. The analysis carried out for five prominent watersheds of Uttara Kannada district– Aganashini, Bedthi, Kali, Sharavathi and Venkatpura revealed that interior forest is continuously decreasing while patch, transitional, edge and perforated forest show increasing trend. The effect of forest fragmentation on landslide occurrence was visualised by overlaying the landslide occurrence points on classified image and forest fragmentation map. The increasing patch and transitional forest on hill slopes are the areas prone to landslides, evident from the field verification, indicating that deforestation is a major triggering factor for landslides. This emphasises the need for immediate conservation measures for sustainable management of the landscape. Quantifying and describing land use - land cover change and fragmentation is crucial for assessing the effect of land management policies and environmental protection decisions.

Projecting low and extensive dimensional chaos from spatio-temporal dynamics

We review the spatio-temporal dynamical features of the Ananthakrishna model for the Portevin-Le Chatelier effect, a kind of plastic instability observed under constant strain rate deformation conditions. We then establish a qualitative correspondence between the spatio-temporal structures that evolve continuously in the instability domain and the nature of the irregularity of the scalar stress signal. Rest of the study is on quantifying the dynamical information contained in the stress signals about the spatio-temporal dynamics of the model. We show that at low applied strain rates, there is a one-to-one correspondence with the randomly nucleated isolated bursts of mobile dislocation density and the stress drops. We then show that the model equations are spatio-temporally chaotic by demonstrating the number of positive Lyapunov exponents and Lyapunov dimension scale with the system size at low and high strain rates. Using a modified algorithm for calculating correlation dimension density, we show that the stress-strain signals at low applied strain rates corresponding to spatially uncorrelated dislocation bands exhibit features of low dimensional chaos. This is made quantitative by demonstrating that the model equations can be approximately reduced to space independent model equations for the average dislocation densities, which is known to be low-dimensionally chaotic. However, the scaling regime for the correlation dimension shrinks with increasing applied strain rate due to increasing propensity for propagation of the dislocation bands. The stress signals in the partially propagating to fully propagating bands turn to have features of extensive chaos.