Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODS Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF. RESULTS The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

A finite volume method for solving the two-sided time-space fractional advection-dispersion equation

We present a finite volume method to solve the time-space two-sided fractional advection-dispersion equation on a one-dimensional domain. The spatial discretisation employs fractionally-shifted Grünwald formulas to discretise the Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives at control volume faces in terms of function values at the nodes. We demonstrate how the finite volume formulation provides a natural, convenient and accurate means of discretising this equation in conservative form, compared to using a conventional finite difference approach. Results of numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

High-resolution GNSS-tracked drifter for studying surface dispersion in shallow water

The use of GNSS tracked Lagrangian drifters allows more realistic quantification of fluid motion and dispersion coefficients than Eulerian techniques because such drifters are analogues of particles that are relevant to flow field characterisation and pollutant dispersion. Using the fast growing Real Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning technique derived from Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS), drifters are developed for high frequency (10 Hz) sampling with position estimates to centimetre accuracy. The drifters are designed with small size and less direct wind drag to follow the sub-surface flow which characterizes dispersion in shallow waters. An analysis of position error from stationary observation indicates that the drifter can efficiently resolve motion up to 1 Hz. The result of the field deployments of the drifter in conjunction with acoustic Eulerian devices shows higher estimate of the drifter streamwise velocities. Single particle statistical analysis of field deployments in a shallow estuarine zone yielded dispersion coefficients estimate comparable to those of dye tracer studies. The drifters capture the tidal elevation during field studies in a tidal estuary.

Spatial incidence of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia - reply

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran's I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Fractional diffusion models of cardiac electrical propagation: Role of structural heterogeneity in dispersion of repolarization

Impulse propagation in biological tissues is known to be modulated by structural heterogeneity. In cardiac muscle, improved understanding on how this heterogeneity influences electrical spread is key to advancing our interpretation of dispersion of repolarization. We propose fractional diffusion models as a novel mathematical description of structurally heterogeneous excitable media, as a means of representing the modulation of the total electric field by the secondary electrical sources associated with tissue inhomogeneities. Our results, analysed against in vivo human recordings and experimental data of different animal species, indicate that structural heterogeneity underlies relevant characteristics of cardiac electrical propagation at tissue level. These include conduction effects on action potential (AP) morphology, the shortening of AP duration along the activation pathway and the progressive modulation by premature beats of spatial patterns of dispersion of repolarization. The proposed approach may also have important implications in other research fields involving excitable complex media.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Urban Growth Analysis Using Spatial and Temporal Data

Urban growth identification, quantification, knowledge of rate and the trends of growth would help in regional planning for better infrastructure provision in environmentally sound way. This requires analysis of spatial and temporal data, which help in quantifying the trends of growth on spatial scale. Emerging technologies such as Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) along with Global Positioning System (GPS) help in this regard. Remote sensing aids in the collection of temporal data and GIS helps in spatial analysis. This paper focuses on the analysis of urban growth pattern in the form of either radial or linear sprawl along the Bangalore - Mysore highway. Various GIS base layers such as builtup areas along the highway, road network, village boundary etc. were generated using collateral data such as the Survey of India toposheet, etc. Further, this analysis was complemented with the computation of Shannon's entropy, which helped in identifying prevalent sprawl zone, rate of growth and in delineating potential sprawl locations. The computation Shannon's entropy helped in delineating regions with dispersed and compact growth. This study reveals that the Bangalore North and South taluks contributed mainly to the sprawl with 559% increase in built-up area over a period of 28 years and high degree of dispersion. The Mysore and Srirangapatna region showed 128% change in built-up area and a high potential for sprawl with slightly high dispersion. The degree of sprawl was found to be directly proportional to the distances from the cities.

Evaluation and modelling of the spatial and temporal variability of particulate matter in urban areas

This thesis contains three subject areas concerning particulate matter in urban area air quality: 1) Analysis of the measured concentrations of particulate matter mass concentrations in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) in different locations in relation to traffic sources, and at different times of year and day. 2) The evolution of traffic exhaust originated particulate matter number concentrations and sizes in local street scale are studied by a combination of a dispersion model and an aerosol process model. 3) Some situations of high particulate matter concentrations are analysed with regard to their meteorological origins, especially temperature inversion situations, in the HMA and three other European cities. The prediction of the occurrence of meteorological conditions conducive to elevated particulate matter concentrations in the studied cities is examined. The performance of current numerical weather forecasting models in the case of air pollution episode situations is considered. The study of the ambient measurements revealed clear diurnal variation of the PM10 concentrations in the HMA measurement sites, irrespective of the year and the season of the year. The diurnal variation of local vehicular traffic flows seemed to have no substantial correlation with the PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that the PM10 concentrations were originated mainly from local vehicular traffic (direct emissions and suspension), while the PM2.5 concentrations were mostly of regionally and long-range transported origin. The modelling study of traffic exhaust dispersion and transformation showed that the number concentrations of particles originating from street traffic exhaust undergo a substantial change during the first tens of seconds after being emitted from the vehicle tailpipe. The dilution process was shown to dominate total number concentrations. Minimal effect of both condensation and coagulation was seen in the Aitken mode number concentrations. The included air pollution episodes were chosen on the basis of occurrence in either winter or spring, and having at least partly local origin. In the HMA, air pollution episodes were shown to be linked to predominantly stable atmospheric conditions with high atmospheric pressure and low wind speeds in conjunction with relatively low ambient temperatures. For the other European cities studied, the best meteorological predictors for the elevated concentrations of PM10 were shown to be temporal (hourly) evolutions of temperature inversions, stable atmospheric stability and in some cases, wind speed. Concerning the weather prediction during particulate matter related air pollution episodes, the use of the studied models were found to overpredict pollutant dispersion, leading to underprediction of pollutant concentration levels.

Polarization relaxation, dielectric dispersion, and solvation dynamics in dense dipolar liquid

A unified treatment of polarization relaxation, dielectric dispersion and solvation dynamics in a dense, dipolar liquid is presented. It is shown that the information of solvent polarization relaxation that is obtained by macroscopic dielectric dispersion experiments is not sufficient to understand dynamics of solvation of a newly created ion or dipole. In solvation, a significant contribution comes from intermediate wave vector processes which depend critically on the short range (nearest‐neighbor) spatial and orientational order that are present in a dense, dipolar liquid. An analytic expression is obtained for the time dependent solvation energy that depends, in addition to the translational and rotational diffusion coefficients of the liquid, on the ratio of solute–solvent molecular sizes and on the microscopic structure of the polar liquid. Mean spherical approximation (MSA) theory is used to obtain numerical results for polarization relaxation, for wave vector and frequency dependent dielectric function and for time dependent solvation energy. We find that in the absence of translational contribution, the solvation of an ion is, in general, nonexponential. In this case, the short time decay is dominated by the longitudinal relaxation time but the long time decay is dominated by much slower large wave vector processes involving nearest‐neighbor molecules. The presence of a significant translational contribution drastically alters the decay behavior. Now, the long‐time behavior is given by the longitudinal relaxation time constant and the short time dynamics is controlled by the large wave vector processes. Thus, although the continuum model itself is conceptually wrong, a continuum model like result is recovered in the presence of a sizeable translational contribution. The continuum model result is also recovered in the limit of large solute to solvent size ratio. In the opposite limit of small solute size, the decay is markedly nonexponential (if the translational contribution is not very large) and a complete breakdown of the continuum model takes place. The significance of these results is discussed.

Influence of birefringence dispersion on distributed measurement of polarization coupling in birefringent fibers

A white light interferometer is developed to measure the distributed polarization coupling in high-birefringence polarization-maintaining fibers (PMFs). Usually the birefringence dispersion between two orthogonal eigenmodes of PMFs is neglected in such systems. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that the birefringence dispersion becomes a nonnegligible factor in a long-fiber test. Significant broadening of interferograms and loss of longitudinal coherence are observed. The spatial resolution and measurement sensitivity of the system decrease correspondingly. Optimum spectrum width selection is presented for better spatial resolution and measurement range. c 2007 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Influence of birefringence dispersion on distributed measurement of polarization coupling in birefringent fibers

A white light interferometer is developed to measure the distributed polarization coupling in high-birefringence polarization-maintaining fibers (PMFs). Usually the birefringence dispersion between two orthogonal eigenmodes of PMFs is neglected in such systems. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that the birefringence dispersion becomes a nonnegligible factor in a long-fiber test. Significant broadening of interferograms and loss of longitudinal coherence are observed. The spatial resolution and measurement sensitivity of the system decrease correspondingly. Optimum spectrum width selection is presented for better spatial resolution and measurement range. c 2007 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers.

Two-dimensional performance of uniform irradiation with the use of an edge-softened lens array and spectral dispersion

A lens array composed of edge-softened elements is used to improve on-target irradiation uniformity in the Shenguang II Laser Facility, with which a Fresnel pattern of suppressed diffraction peaks is obtained. Additional uniformity can be reached by reducing short-wavelength interference speckles inside the pattern when the technique of smoothing by spectral dispersion is also used. Two-dimensional performance of irradiation is simulated and the results indicate that a pattern of steeper edges and a flat top can be achieved with this joint technique. (c) 2007 Optical Society of America.

Precise modal excitation in multimode fibre for control of modal dispersion and mode-group division multiplexing

Each mode of a multimode fibre is excited using binary phase patterns on a Spatial Light Modulator and verified by observation of the near-field leaving the fibre and analysis of the step response. © 2011 OSA.

Precise modal excitation in multimode fibre for control of modal dispersion and mode-group division multiplexing

Each mode of a multimode fibre is excited using binary phase patterns on a Spatial Light Modulator and verified by observation of the near-field leaving the fibre and analysis of the step response. © 2011 OSA.

Observations of spatial flow patterns at the coral colony scale on a shallow reef flat

Although small-scale spatial flow variability can affect both larger-scale circulation patterns and biological processes on coral reefs, there are few direct measurements of spatial flow patterns across horizontal scales <100 m. Here flow patterns on a shallow reef flat were measured at scales from a single colony to several adjacent colonies using an array of acoustic Doppler velocimeters on a diver-operated traverse. We observed recirculation zones immediately behind colonies, reduced currents and elevated dissipation rates in turbulent wakes up to 2 colony diameters downstream and enhanced Reynolds stresses in shear layers around wake peripheries. Flow acceleration zones were observed above and between colonies. Coherent flow structures varied with incident flow speeds; recirculation zones were stronger and wakes were more turbulent in faster flows. Low-frequency (<0.03 Hz) flow variations, for which water excursions were large compared with the colony diameters (Keulegan-Carpenter number, KC >1), had similarspatial patterns to wakes, while higher-frequency variations (0.05-0.1 Hz, KC<1) had no observable spatial structure. On the reef flat, both drag and inertial forces exerted by coral colonies could have significant effects on flow, but within different frequency ranges; drag dominates for low-frequency flow variations and inertial forces dominate for higher frequency variations, including the wave band. Our scaling analyses suggest that spatial flow patterns at colony and patch scales could have important implications or both physical and biological processes at larger reef scales through their effects on forces exerted on the flow, turbulent mixing, and dispersion. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.