Reference bias : presentation of extreme health states prior to EQ-VAS improves health-related quality of life scores. A randomised crossover trial.

Background: Clinical practice and clinical research has made a concerted effort to move beyond the use of clinical indicators alone and embrace patient focused care through the use of patient reported outcomes such as healthrelated quality of life. However, unless patients give consistent consideration to the health states that give meaning to measurement scales used to evaluate these constructs, longitudinal comparison of these measures may be invalid. This study aimed to investigate whether patients give consideration to a standard health state rating scale (EQ-VAS) and whether consideration of good and poor health state descriptors immediately changes their selfreport. Methods: A randomised crossover trial was implemented amongst hospitalised older adults (n = 151). Patients were asked to consider descriptions of extremely good (Description-A) and poor (Description-B) health states. The EQ-VAS was administered as a self-report at baseline, after the first descriptors (A or B), then again after the remaining descriptors (B or A respectively). At baseline patients were also asked if they had considered either EQVAS anchors. Results: Overall 106/151 (70%) participants changed their self-evaluation by ≥5 points on the 100 point VAS, with a mean (SD) change of +4.5 (12) points (p < 0.001). A total of 74/151 (49%) participants did not consider the best health VAS anchor, of the 77 who did 59 (77%) thought the good health descriptors were more extreme (better) then they had previously considered. Similarly 85/151 (66%) participants did not consider the worst health anchor of the 66 who did 63 (95%) thought the poor health descriptors were more extreme (worse) then they had previously considered. Conclusions: Health state self-reports may not be well considered. An immediate significant shift in response can be elicited by exposure to a mere description of an extreme health state despite no actual change in underlying health state occurring. Caution should be exercised in research and clinical settings when interpreting subjective patient reported outcomes that are dependent on brief anchors for meaning. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (#ACTRN12607000606482) http://www.anzctr. org.au

Response shift, recall bias and their effect on measuring change in health-related quality of life amongst older hospital patients

Background: Assessments of change in subjective patient reported outcomes such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are a key component of many clinical and research evaluations. However, conventional longitudinal evaluation of change may not agree with patient perceived change if patients' understanding of the subjective construct under evaluation changes over time (response shift) or if patients' have inaccurate recollection (recall bias). This study examined whether older adults' perception of change is in agreement with conventional longitudinal evaluation of change in their HRQoL over the duration of their hospital stay. It also investigated this level of agreement after adjusting patient perceived change for recall bias that patients may have experienced. Methods: A prospective longitudinal cohort design nested within a larger randomised controlled trial was implemented. 103 hospitalised older adults participated in this investigation at a tertiary hospital facility. The EQ-5D utility and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) scores were used to evaluate HRQoL. Participants completed EQ-5D reports as soon as they were medically stable (within three days of admission) then again immediately prior to discharge. Three methods of change score calculation were used (conventional change, patient perceived change and patient perceived change adjusted for recall bias). Agreement was primarily investigated using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and limits of agreement. Results: Overall 101 (98%) participants completed both admission and discharge assessments. The mean (SD) age was 73.3 (11.2). The median (IQR) length of stay was 38 (20-60) days. For agreement between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change: ICCs were 0.34 and 0.40 for EQ-5D utility and VAS respectively. For agreement between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change adjusted for recall bias: ICCs were 0.98 and 0.90 respectively. Discrepancy between conventional longitudinal change and patient perceived change was considered clinically meaningful for 84 (83.2%) of participants, after adjusting for recall bias this reduced to 8 (7.9%). Conclusions: Agreement between conventional change and patient perceived change was not strong. A large proportion of this disagreement could be attributed to recall bias. To overcome the invalidating effect of response shift (on conventional change) and recall bias (on patient perceived change) a method of adjusting patient perceived change for recall bias has been described.

Young drivers’ optimism bias for accident risk and driving skill : accountability and insight experience manipulations

This study aimed to determine whether two brief, low cost interventions would reduce young drivers’ optimism bias for their driving skills and accident risk perceptions. This tendency for such drivers to perceive themselves as more skilful and less prone to driving accidents than their peers may lead to less engagement in precautionary driving behaviours and a greater engagement in more dangerous driving behaviour. 243 young drivers (aged 17 - 25 years) were randomly allocated to one of three groups: accountability, insight or control. All participants provided both overall and specific situation ratings of their driving skills and accident risk relative to a typical young driver. Prior to completing the questionnaire, those in the accountability condition were first advised that their driving skills and accident risk would be later assessed via a driving simulator. Those in the insight condition first underwent a difficult computer-based hazard perception task designed to provide participants with insight into their potential limitations when responding to hazards in difficult and unpredictable driving situations. Participants in the control condition completed only the questionnaire. Results showed that the accountability manipulation was effective in reducing optimism bias in terms of participants’ comparative ratings of their accident risk in specific situations, though only for less experienced drivers. In contrast, among more experienced males, participants in the insight condition showed greater optimism bias for overall accident risk than their counterparts in the accountability or control groups. There were no effects of the manipulations on drivers’ skills ratings. The differential effects of the two types of manipulations on optimism bias relating to one’s accident risk in different subgroups of the young driver sample highlight the importance of targeting interventions for different levels of experience. Accountability interventions may be beneficial for less experienced young drivers but the results suggest exercising caution with the use of insight type interventions, particularly hazard perception style tasks, for more experienced young drivers typically still in the provisional stage of graduated licensing systems.

PCR bias Toward the wild-type k-ras and p53 sequences: Implications for PCR detection of mutations and cancer diagnosis

PCR-based cancer diagnosis requires detection of rare mutations in k- ras, p53 or other genes. The assumption has been that mutant and wild-type sequences amplify with near equal efficiency, so that they are eventually present in proportions representative of the starting material. Work on factor IX suggests that this assumption is invalid for one case of near- sequence identity. To test the generality of this phenomenon and its relevance to cancer diagnosis, primers distant from point mutations in p53 and k-ras were used to amplify wild-type and mutant sequences from these genes. A substantial bias against PCR amplification of mutants was observed for two regions of the p53 gene and one region of k-ras. For k-ras and p53, bias was observed when the wild-type and mutant sequences were amplified separately or when mixed in equal proportions before PCR. Bias was present with proofreading and non-proofreading polymerase. Mutant and wild-type segments of the factor V, cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator and prothrombin genes were amplified and did not exhibit PCR bias. Therefore, the assumption of equal PCR efficiency for point mutant and wild-type sequences is invalid in several systems. Quantitative or diagnostic PCR will require validation for each locus, and enrichment strategies may be needed to optimize detection of mutants.

Reversed bias Pt/nanostructured ZnO Schottky diode with enhanced electric field for hydrogen sensing

In this paper, the effect of electric field enhancement on Pt/nanostructured ZnO Schottky diode based hydrogen sensors under reverse bias condition has been investigated. Current-voltage characteristics of these diodes have been studied at temperatures from 25 to 620 °C and their free carrier density concentration was estimated by exposing the sensors to hydrogen gas. The experimental results show a significantly lower breakdown voltage in reversed bias current-voltage characteristics than the conventional Schottky diodes and also greater lateral voltage shift in reverse bias operation than the forward bias. This can be ascribed to the increased localized electric fields emanating from the sharp edges and corners of the nanostructured morphologies. At 620 °C, voltage shifts of 114 and 325 mV for 0.06% and 1% hydrogen have been recorded from dynamic response under the reverse bias condition. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seeing the outer suburbs : addressing the urban bias in creative place thinking

Seeing the outer suburbs: addressing the urban bias in creative place thinking, Regional Studies. This paper draws upon quantitative and qualitative research into Australian cities to question the assumption that creative industries workers inherently seek to cluster in inner-urban areas. It challenges this foundational assumption by combining a critical application of the location quotient analysis of major Australian cities with qualitative research drawn from interviews with creative workers based in suburban Melbourne and Brisbane. The findings provide analyses as to why many creative industries workers prefer to locate themselves in outer suburban places. There is also discussion of the implications of these findings for future work on the cultural geography and policies of creative industries.

Electro-cortical implicit race bias does not vary with participants' race or sex

Earlier research found evidence for electro-cortical race bias towards black target faces in white American participants irrespective of the task relevance of race. The present study investigated whether an implicit race bias generalizes across cultural contexts and racial in- and out-groups. An Australian sample of 56 Chinese and Caucasian males and females completed four oddball tasks that required sex judgements for pictures of male and female Chinese and Caucasian posers. The nature of the background (across task) and of the deviant stimuli (within task) was fully counterbalanced. Event-related potentials (ERPs) to deviant stimuli recorded from three midline sites were quantified in terms of mean amplitude for four components: N1, P2, N2 and a late positive complex (LPC; 350–700 ms). Deviants that differed from the backgrounds in sex or race elicited enhanced LPC activity. These differences were not modulated by participant race or sex. The current results replicate earlier reports of effects of poser race relative to background race on the LPC component of the ERP waveform. In addition, they indicate that an implicit race bias occurs regardless of participant's or poser's race and is not confined to a particular cultural context.

A Bias in ML Estimates of Branch Lengths in the Presence of Multiple Signals

Sequence data often have competing signals that are detected by network programs or Lento plots. Such data can be formed by generating sequences on more than one tree, and combining the results, a mixture model. We report that with such mixture models, the estimates of edge (branch) lengths from maximum likelihood (ML) methods that assume a single tree are biased. Based on the observed number of competing signals in real data, such a bias of ML is expected to occur frequently. Because network methods can recover competing signals more accurately, there is a need for ML methods allowing a network. A fundamental problem is that mixture models can have more parameters than can be recovered from the data, so that some mixtures are not, in principle, identifiable. We recommend that network programs be incorporated into best practice analysis, along with ML and Bayesian trees.

Branch-length estimation bias misleads molecular dating for a vertebrate mitochondrial phylogeny

Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.

Weight bias on psychological and physical health

It is a round table discussion article. "Weight bias refers to negative weight-related attitudes and beliefs, expressed in a range of forms towards individuals who are overweight or obese. Consequences of weight bias could be very significant to the individuals which may predispose them to additional weight gain. This brief literature review discusses the concept of weight bias and its impact on psychological and physical health on overweight and obese individuals..."

'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.