Sea Level Variations from Decades to Millennia: A few Case Studies

The main goals of this Ph.D. study are to investigate the regional and global geophysical components related to present polar ice melting and to provide independent cross validation checks of GIA models using both geophysical data detected by satellite mission, and geological observations from far field sites, in order to determine a lower and upper bound of uncertainty of GIA effect. The subject of this Thesis is the sea level change from decades to millennia scale. Within ice2sea collaboration, we developed a Fortran numerical code to analyze the local short-term sea level change and vertical deformation resulting from the loss of ice mass. This method is used to investigate polar regions: Greenland and Antarctica. We have used mass balance based on ICESat data for Greenland ice sheet and a plausible mass balance for Antarctic ice sheet. We have determined the regional and global fingerprint of sea level variations, vertical deformations of the solid surface of the Earth and variations of shape of the geoid for each ice source mentioned above. The coastal areas are affected by the long wavelength component of GIA process. Hence understanding the response of the Earth to loading is crucial in various contexts. Based on the hypothesis that Earth mantle materials obey to a linear rheology, and that the physical parameters of this rheology can be only characterized by their depth dependence, we investigate the Glacial Isostatic Effect upon the far field sites of Mediterranean area using an improved SELEN program. We presented new and revised observations for archaeological fish tanks located along the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic coast of Italy and new RSL for the SE Tunisia. Spatial and temporal variations of the Holocene sea levels studied in central Italy and Tunisia, provided important constraints on the melting history of the major ice sheets.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on seven records from 0-430 ka and five records from 0-798 ka. The first principal component, which we use as the stack, describes ~80 % of the variance in the data and is similar using either five or seven records. After scaling the stack based on Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea level estimates, the stack agrees to within 5 m with isostatically adjusted coral sea level estimates for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 11 (125 and 400 ka, respectively). When we compare the sea level stack with the d18O of benthic foraminifera, we find that sea level change accounts for about ~40 % of the total orbital-band variance in benthic d18O, compared to a 65 % contribution during the LGM-to-Holocene transition. Additionally, the second and third principal components of our analyses reflect differences between proxy records associated with spatial variations in the d18O of seawater.

Global and Regional Sea level budget components from GRACE and radar altimetry (2002-2014)

This dataset contains the result of a joint least squares inversion of GRACE and altimetry data. The results are evaluated in terms of sea level change for the global ocean as well as dedicated areas. In addition, some auxiliary data is provided to enable reproducibility of the results in Rietbroek et al. 2016, and a google Earth kmz file is provided which visualizes the trends derived from the inversion results.

Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation

Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of change can be up to 20-25 mm/yr. The emerging patterns are discussed with respect to the oceanic circulation changes. Most prominent is a south-north gradient reflecting the changes in geostrophic surface currents. Our results suggest that an analysis of observed sea level change patterns could be useful for monitoring the THC strength.

Relative sea-level history of Marguerite Bay, Antarctic Peninsula derived from optically stimulated luminescence-dated beach cobbles

Calmette Bay within Marguerite Bay along the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula contains one of the most continuous flights of raised beaches described to date in Antarctica. Raised beaches extend to 40.8 m above sea level (masl) and are thought to reflect glacial isostatic adjustment due to the retreat of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet. Using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), we dated quartz extracts from cobble surfaces buried in raised beaches at Calmette Bay. The beaches are separated into upper and lower beaches based on OSL ages, geomorphology, and sedimentary fabric. The two sets of beaches are separated by a prominent scarp. One of our OSL ages from the upper beaches dates to 9.3 thousand years ago (ka; as of 1950) consistent with previous extrapolation of sea-level data and the time of ice retreat from inner Marguerite Bay. However, four of the seven ages from the upper beaches date to the timing of glaciation. We interpret these ages to represent reworking of beaches deposited prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) by advancing and retreating LGM ice. Ages from the lower beaches record relative sea-level fall due to Holocene glacial-isostatic adjustment. We suggest a Holocene marine limit of 21.7 masl with an age of 5.5-7.3 ka based on OSL ages from Calmette Bay and other sea-level constraints in the area. A marine limit at 21.7 masl implies half as much relative sea-level change in Marguerite Bay during the Holocene as suggested by previous sea-level reconstructions. No evidence for a relative sea-level signature of neoglacial events, such as a decrease followed by an increase in RSL fall due to ice advance and retreat associated with the Little Ice Age, is found within Marguerite Bay indicating either: (1) no significant neoglacial advances occurred within Marguerite Bay; (2) rheological heterogeneity allows part of the Antarctic Peninsula (i.e. the South Shetland Islands) to respond to rapid ice mass changes while other regions are incapable of responding to short-lived ice advances; or (3) the magnitude of neoglacial events within Marguerite Bay is too small to resolve through relative sea-level reconstructions. Although the application of reconstructing sea-level histories using OSL-dated raised beach deposits provides a better understanding of the timing and nature of relative sea-level change in Marguerite Bay, we highlight possible problems associated with using raised beaches as sea-level indices due to post-depositional reworking by storm waves.

New assessments of global sea level rise from tide gauges

Estimates of global sea-level change rates based on observations from Tide Gauges (TGs) show a long-term global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) of 1÷2 mm/yr for the 20th century. The considerable scatter in these estimates is mainly attributable to the uneven distribution of the TG sites and to several physical phenomena that cause local sea level to deviate from the global mean, or to affect the TG record through land subsidence or uplift. The main cause of vertical ground motion on a regional space scale is the response of the Earth to past ice loads, called Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), which is often modelled and corrected for. In this work, a simple average approach was used to revisit two past estimates based on small sets of long, high-quality TG records in view of the longer record available, employing a newer GIA model (ICE-6G) from Peltier et al. [2015]. The value of GMSLR obtained from both sets is (1.5±0.4) mm/yr. In addition, a much larger set of TGs was used to estimate the contemporary (post 1993) GMSLR using satellite estimates from Cazenave et al. [2018] as a benchmark, in an attempt to understand how a simple average approach could perform for larger sets. The resulting estimate of (3.4÷3.5)±0.2 mm/yr (depending on the GIA correction applied) is comparable to the satellite result of (3.1±0.3) mm/yr.

Granulometric characterization and evaluation of annually banded mid-Holocene estuarine silts, Welsh Severn Estuary (UK): coastal change, sea level and climate

Holocene silts (salt marshes) and highest intertidal-supratidal peats are superbly exposed on a 15 kin coastal transect which reveals two laterally extensive units of annually banded silts (Beds 3, 7) associated with three transgressive-regressive silt-peat cycles (early sixth-early fourth millennium BC). Bed 3 in places is concordantly and gradationally related to peats above and below, but in others transgresses older strata. Bed 7 also grades up into peat, but everywhere overlies a discordance. The banding in Bed 3 at three main and two minor sites was resolved and characterized texturally at high-resolution (2.5/5 mm contiguous slices) using laser granulometry (LS230 with PIDS) and a comprehensive scheme of data-assessment. Most of Bed 3 formed very rapidly, at peak values of several tens of millimetres annually, in accordance with modelled effects of sea-level fluctuations on mature marshes (bed concordant and gradational) and on marshes growing up after coastal erosion and retreat (bed with discordant base). Using data from the modern Severn Estuary, the textural contrast within bands, and its variation between bands, points to a variable but overall milder mid-Holocene climate than today. The inter-annual variability affected marsh dynamics, as shown by the behaviour of the finely divided plant tissues present. Given local calibration, the methodology is applicable to other tidal systems with banded silts in Britain and mainland northwest Europe. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change

Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable distributions in these parameters. The ocean heat uptake efficiency varies by a factor of two across the models, explaining about 50% of the spread in ocean heat uptake in CMIP5 models with CO2 increasing at 1%/year. It correlates with the ocean global-mean vertical profiles both of temperature and of temperature change, and comparison with observations suggests the models may overestimate ocean heat uptake and underestimate surface warming, because their stratification is too weak. The models agree on the location of maxima of shallow ocean heat uptake (above 700 m) in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and on deep ocean heat uptake (below 2000 m) in areas of the Southern Ocean, in some places amounting to 40% of the top-to-bottom integral in the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat uptake; consequently the eddy-induced thickness diffusivity parameter, which is particularly influential in the Southern Ocean, correlates with the ocean heat uptake efficiency. The thermal expansion produced by ocean heat uptake is 0.12 m YJ−1, with an uncertainty of about 10% (1 YJ = 1024 J).