College and university libraries and librarianship. An examination of their present status and some proposals for their future development /

Place and date of imprint on label mounted on t. p.

The resources of California: comprising agriculture, mining, geography, climate, commerce, &c., and the past and future development of the State.

Mode of access: Internet.

United States of Brazil. A geographical sketch, with special reference to economic conditions and prospects of future development,

"Native races of Honduras by J. Hampden Porter": p. 34-54.

Toward competent government; the need for training public employees, a review of present methods, and proposals for future development.

Mode of access: Internet.

Scenarios for electricity power sector development in the North-West of Russia

Focus of this thesisis made on development of electricity sector of Russian North-West. The objective was to determine the most likely scenarios for development of the most critical (western) part of Interregional Power System of North-West, from where the most part of Russian electricity exports to the countries of European Union take place. For this purpose all the involved sides were analyzed: generation, transmission system and electricity consumption in different regions of Russian North-West. The analysis was performed through investigation of existing generation andtransmission capacities and plans for their development to be performed by the generation and transmission companies operating in the region. Principles of Russian electricity sector restructuring and electricity market design are also discussed as well as factors that may influence on future electricity price in the region.

The potential effect of population development, smoking and antioxidant supplementation on the future epidemiology of age-related macular degeneration in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Due to the predicted age shift of the population an increase in the number of patients with late AMD is expected. At present smoking represents the only modifiable risk factor. Supplementation of antioxidants in patients at risk is the sole effective pharmacological prevention. The aim of this study is to estimate the future epidemiological development of late AMD in Switzerland and to quantify the potential effects of smoking and antioxidants supplementation. METHODS: The modelling of the future development of late AMD cases in Switzerland was based on a meta-analysis of the published data on AMD-prevalence and on published Swiss population development scenarios until 2050. Three different scenarios were compared: low, mean and high. The late AMD cases caused by smoking were calculated using the "population attributable fraction" formula and data on the current smoking habits of the Swiss population. The number of potentially preventable cases was estimated using the data of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). RESULTS: According to the mean population development scenario, late AMD cases in Switzerland will rise from 37 200 cases in 2005 to 52 500 cases in 2020 and to 93 200 cases in 2050. Using the "low" and the "high" scenarios the late AMD cases may range from 49 500 to 56 000 in 2020 and from 73 700 to 118 400 in 2050, respectively. Smoking is responsible for approximately 7 % of all late AMD cases, i. e., 2600 cases in 2005, 3800 cases in 2020, 6600 cases in 2050 ("mean scenario"). With future antioxidant supplementation to all patients at risk another 3100 cases would be preventable until 2020 and possibly 23 500 cases until 2050. CONCLUSION: Due to age shift in the population a 2.5-fold increase in late AMD cases until 2050 is expected, representing a socioeconomic challenge. Cessation of smoking and supplementation of antioxidants to all patients at risk has the potential to reduce this number. Unfortunately, public awareness is low. These data may support health-care providers and public opinion leaders when developing public education and prevention strategies.

Investment Determinants and Future Shape of Russia's Power Generation

The reformation of power sector is still in the process of development. The present day situation in Russian electricity power market ischaracterized as transitional period: competitive electricity market is forming, new companies are being created and the power of government regulation is decreasing. The main aim of the reformation is to attract much-needed private investments to the power sector. The electricity consumption increases very rapidly and power sector has to cope with high demand. The goal of this master's thesis is to analyze the nowadays situation in Russian power sector, such as generation structure, condition of electricity networks, electricity price formation for end-users, shape of fuel sector and investments risks and attraction.The final result of this work is creation of scenario of Russian power sector future shape and analysis of the present day situation.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

Forecasting the future: an overview of the strategic planning of the Bournemouth and Poole conurbation

An important part of strategic planning’s purpose should be to attempt to forecast the future, not simply to belatedly respond to events, or accept the future as inevitable. This paper puts forward a conceptual approach for seeking to achieve these aims and uses the Bournemouth and Poole area in Dorset as a vehicle for applying the basic methodology. The area has been chosen because of the significant issues that it currently faces in planning terms; and its future development possibilities. In order that alternative future choices for the area – different ‘developmental trajectories’ – can be evaluated, they must be carefully and logically constructed. Four Futures for Bournemouth/Poole have been put forward; they are titled and colour-coded: Future One is Maximising Growth – Golden Prospect which seeks to achieve the highest level of economic prosperity of the area; Future Two is Incremental Growth – Solid Silver which attempts to facilitate a steady, continuing, controlled pattern of the development for the area; Future Three is Steady State – Cobalt Blue which suggests that people in the area could be more concerned with preserving their quality of life in terms of their leisure and recreation rather than increasing wealth; Future Four is Environment First – Jade Green which makes the area’s environmental protection its top priority even at the possible expense of economic prosperity. The scenarios proposed here are not sacrosanct. Nor are they simply confined to the Bournemouth and Poole area. In theory, suitably modified, they could use in a variety of different contexts. Consideration of the scenarios – wherever located - might then generate other, additional scenarios. These are called hybrids, alloys and amalgams. Likewise it might identify some of them as inappropriate or impossible. Most likely, careful consideration of the scenarios will suggest hybrid scenarios, in which features from different scenarios are combined to produce alternative or additional futures for consideration. The real issue then becomes how best to fashion such a future for the particular area under consideration

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship of future climate change and adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al.; O’Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. A key goal of the current framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

Emergy diagnosis and reflections towards Brazilian sustainable development

This paper presents an environmental emergy-based diagnosis of Brazil compared with Russia, India, China, South Africa and United States. Reflections on the Brazilian sustainable development are presented and discussed based on the evaluations published since 1979. The variation of the emergy per capita for Brazil from 1979 to 2007 indicates that the country's growth is tied to the exploitation of non renewable natural resources which do not directly reflect in the welfare of the population. The total emergy exported per unit of gross domestic product increased in the period, suggesting that the country exports more emergy than that contained in the money received for the exportation. With the help of the emergy indices, the future development of Brazil is explored and discussed. The comparison among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries and United States indicates that what may be appropriate and usable within one country may not be within another and that to achieve the global sustainability two concomitant actions may occur: (i) the reduction of the total emergy use in developed economies, and (ii) the reduction of indigenous resources exportation in developing economies. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protection issue discussion of DC network development:circuit breaker or fault-tolerant converter

This paper provides a discussion on future direct current (DC) network development in terms of system protection under DC-side fault scenarios. The argument between appropriate DC circuit breaker and new DC fault-tolerant converters is discussed after a review on DC technology development and bottleneck issues that require proper solutions. The overcurrent/cost curve of power-electronic DC circuit breakers (CB) superimposed to voltage-source converter (VSC) systems is derived and compared with other possible fault-tolerant power conversion options. This in-advance planning of protection capability is essential for the future development of DC networks.