Attributions of responsibility, blame and justifiability to a perpetrator and victim in an acquaintance rape scenario: The influence of Marijuana intoxication

Marijuana is a commonly used illicit drug by young adults and has been implicated in about one third of sexual assaults. However, the influence of Marijuana intoxication on rape attributions has not been previously investigated. This study examined the effects of perpetrator and victim Marijuana intoxication and participant sex on rape attributions. Young adults (N = 285) read an acquaintance rape scenario where Marijuana intoxication was manipulated and completed measures of perpetrator (responsibility, blame and justifiability) and victim attributions (responsibility and blame). The results revealed that an intoxicated, compared to sober, perpetrator was attributed less responsibility for his sexual aggression. When the victim was intoxicated, compared to sober, the perpetrator and victim were attributed less and more blame for the assault, respectively. These findings demonstrate that, irrespective of perceiver sex, Marijuana intoxication, like alcohol intoxication, results in an attributional double standard in favour of the perpetrator.

Teaching scenario analysis – An action learning pedagogy

In this paper we provide an introduction to our teaching of scenario analysis. Scenario analysis offers an excellent instructional vehicle for investigating ‘wicked problems’; issues that are complex and ambiguous and require trans-disciplinary inquiry. We outline the pedagogical underpinning based on action learning and provide a critical approach from the intuitive logics school of scenario analysis. We use this in our programme in which student groups engage in semi-structured, but divergent and inclusive analysis of a selected focal issue. They then develop a set of scenario storylines that outline the limits of possibility and plausibility for a selected time-horizon year. The scenarios are portrayed not as narratives, but as vehicles for exploration of the causes and outcomes of the interplay between forces in the contextual environment that drive the unfolding future in the context of the focal issue. In this way, we provide internally-generated challenges to both individual pre-conceptions and group-level thinking.

Scenario planning and emerging global trends for the future of roads and automobile transport

Roads and road infrastructure will be faced with multiple challenges over the coming decades – challenges that in many ways bear little resemblance to those previously faced - and as such will require new approaches. The opportunity exists to transform the way road infrastructure is conceived and constructed, as a key part of the process of assisting society to respond to climate change and reduce other environmental pressures. Innovations in road construction, use and management in order to manage these changes can now be seen. Scenario planning is one tool that can take into account emerging challenges, develop or adopt new approaches, and thus help this transformation to occur. The paper explores scenario planning methodologies, global innovations and trends in road construction and maintenance and the findings from stakeholder workshops in Brisbane and Perth. It highlights key opportunities for road agencies to use scenarios to enable planning that, in the face of future uncertainties, facilitates appropriate responses.

A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.

Immunization of male bonnet monkeys (M-radiata) with a recombinant FSH receptor preparation affects testicular function and fertility

Immunization of proven fertile adult male monkeys (n = 3) with a recombinant FSH receptor protein preparation (oFSHR-P) (representing amino acids 1-134 of the extracellular domain of the receptor Mr similar to 15KDa) resulted in production of receptor blocking antibodies. The ability of the antibody to bind a particulate FSH receptor preparation and receptors in intact granulosa cells was markedly (by 30-80%) inhibited by FSH. Serum T levels and LH receptor function following immunization remained unchanged. The immunized monkeys showed a 50% reduction (p<0.001) in transformation of spermatogonia(2C) to primary spermatocytes (4C) as determined by flow cytometry and the 4C:2C ratio showed a correlative change (R 0.81, p<0.0007) with reduction in fertility index (sperm counts X motility score). Breeding studies indicated that monkeys became infertile between 242-368 days of immunization when the fertility index was in the range of 123+/-76 to 354+/-42 (compared to a value of 1602+/-384 on day 0). As the effects observed ate near identical to that seen following immunization with FSH it is suggestive that oFSHR-P can substitute for FSH in the development of a contraceptive vaccine.

Immunization of male rabbits with sheep luteal receptor to LH results in production of antibodies exhibiting hormone-agonistic and -antagonistic activities

Antibodies to LH/chorionic gonadotrophin receptor (LH/CG-R; molecular weight 67 000), isolated in a homogenous state (established by SDS-PAGE and ligand blotting) from sheep luteal membrane using human CG (hCG)-Sepharose affinity chromatography, were raised in three adult male rabbits (R-I, R-II and R-III). Each of the rabbits received 20-30 mu g oi the purified receptor in Freund's complete adjuvant at a time. Primary immunization was followed by booster injection at intervals. Production of receptor antibodies was monitored by (1) determining the dilution of the serum (IgG fraction) that could specifically bind 50% of I-125-LH/CG-R added and (2) analysing sera for any chance in testosterone levels. Following primary immunization and the first booster, all three rabbits exhibited a 2.5- to 6.0-fold increase in serum testosterone over basal levels and this effect was spread over a period of time (similar to 40 days) coinciding with the rise and fall of receptor antibodies. The maximal antibody titre (ED(50)) produced at this time ranged from 1:350 to 1:100 to below detectable limits for R-I, R-II and R-III respectively. Subsequent immunizations followed by the second booster resulted in a substantial increase in antibody titre (ED(50) of 1:5000) in R-I, but this was not accompanied by any change in serum testosterone over preimmune levels, suggesting that with the progress of immunization the character of the antibody produced had also changed. Two pools of antisera from R-I collected 10 days following the booster (at day 70 (bleed I) and day 290 (bleed II)) were used in further experiments. IgG isolated from bleed I but not from bleed II antiserum showed a dose-dependent stimulation of testosterone production by mouse Leydig cells in vitro, thus confirming the in vivo hormone-mimicking activity antibodies generated during the early immunization phase. The IgG fractions from both bleeds were, however, capable of inhibiting (1) I-125-hCG binding to crude sheep luteal membrane (EC(50) of 1:70 and 1:350 for bleed I and II antisera respectively) and (2) ovine LH-stimulated testosterone production by mouse Leydig cells in vitro, indicating the presence oi antagonistic antibodies irrespective of the period of time during which the rabbits were immunized. The: fact that bleed I-stimulated testosterone production could be inhibited in a dose-dependent manner by the addition of IgG from bleed II to the mouse Leydig cell in vitro assay system showed that the agonistic activity is intrinsic to the bleed I antibody. The receptor antibody (bleed II) was also capable of blocking LH action in vivo, as rabbits passively (for 24 h with LH/CG-R antiserum) as well as actively (for 130 days) immunized against LH/CG-R failed to respond to a bolus injection of LH (50 mu g). At no time, however, was the serum testosterone reduced below the basal level. This study clearly shows that, unlike with LH antibody, attempts to achieve an LH deficiency effect in vivo by resorting to immunization with hole LH receptor is difficult, as receptor antibodies exhibit both hormone-mimicking (agonistic) as well as hormone-blocking (antagonistic) activities.

Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method

In this paper we present a novel application of scenario methods to engage a diverse constituency of senior stakeholders, with limited time availability, in debate to inform planning and policy development. Our case study project explores post-carbon futures for the Latrobe Valley region of the Australian state of Victoria. Our approach involved initial deductive development of two ‘extreme scenarios’ by a multi-disciplinary research team, based upon an extensive research programme. Over four workshops with the stakeholder constituency, these initial scenarios were discussed, challenged, refined and expanded through an inductive process, whereby participants took ‘ownership’ of a final set of three scenarios. These were both comfortable and challenging to them. The outcomes of this process subsequently informed public policy development for the region. Whilst this process did not follow a single extant structured, multi-stage scenario approach, neither was it devoid of form. Here, we seek to theorise and codify elements of our process – which we term ‘scenario improvisation’ – such that others may adopt it.

Scenario analysis of alternative vegetation management options on the greenhouse gas budget of two grazing businesses in north-eastern Australia

The emerging carbon economy will have a major impact on grazing businesses because of significant livestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for similar to 11% of Australia's reported greenhouse gas emissions. Grazing businesses need to develop an understanding of their greenhouse gas impact and be able to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern-central Queensland. The 50 year analysis demonstrated the substantially different greenhouse gas outcomes and livestock carrying capacity for three alternative regrowth management options: retain regrowth (sequester 71.5 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, CO2-e/ha), clear all regrowth (emit 42.8 t CO2-e/ha) and clear regrowth strips (emit 5.8 t CO2-e/ha). The second scenario was based on a 'remnant eucalypt savanna-woodland' land type in the Einasleigh Uplands bioregion of north Queensland. The four alternative vegetation management options were: retain current woodland structure (emit 7.4 t CO2-e/ha), allow woodland to thicken increasing tree basal area (sequester 20.7 t CO2-e/ha), thin trees less than 10 cm diameter (emit 8.9 t CO2-e/ha), and thin trees <20 cm diameter (emit 12.4 t CO2-e/ha). Significant assumptions were required to complete the budgets due to gaps in current knowledge on the response of woody vegetation, soil carbon and non-CO2 soil emissions to management options and land-type at the property scale. The analyses indicate that there is scope for grazing businesses to choose alternative management options to influence their greenhouse gas budget. However, a key assumption is that accumulation of carbon or avoidance of emissions somewhere on a grazing business (e.g. in woody vegetation or soil) will be recognised as an offset for emissions elsewhere in the business (e.g. livestock methane). This issue will be a challenge for livestock industries and policy makers to work through in the coming years.

Wet season resting - economic insights from scenario modelling

Pasture degradation, particularly that attributable to overgrazing, is a significant problem across the northern Australian rangelands. Although grazing studies have identified the scope for wet season resting strategies to be used to rehabilitate degraded pastures, the economic outcome of these strategies has not been extensively demonstrated. An exploratory study of the prospective economic value of wet season resting is presented using an economic simulation model of a 28000 ha beef enterprise located in the Charters Towers region of north-eastern Australia to explore seven hypothetical scenarios centred on the projected performance of a wet season resting strategy. A series of 20-year simulations for a range of pasture recovery profiles, stocking capacity, animal productivity responses, beef prices and agistment options are compared with a baseline scenario of taking no action. Estimates of the net present value of the 20-year difference in total enterprise gross margins between the various resting options and the 'do nothing' option identify that wet season resting can offer a positive economic return for the range of scenarios examined, although this is contingent on the assumptions that are made concerning the trajectories of change in carrying capacity and animal productivity. Some implications for management and policy making to support the practical implementation of wet season resting strategies are discussed.

Pregnancy suppression by active immunization against gestation-specific riboflavin carrier protein

A riboflavin carrier protein isolated from chickens cross-reacts with a gestation-specific rodent carrier for riboflavin. Active immunization of female rats of proved fertility with the purified chicken carrier protein completely yet reversibly suppressed early pregnancy without impairing implantation per se. Concurrently there were no discernible adverse effects on maternal health in terms of weight gain, vitamin status, and fertility.

From environmental concerns towards sustainable food provisioning. : Material flow and food consumption scenario studies on sustainability of agri-food systems

Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

Maximum Loss Calculation using Scenario Analysis, Heavy Tails and Implied Volatility Patterns

The objective of this paper is to improve option risk monitoring by examining the information content of implied volatility and by introducing the calculation of a single-sum expected risk exposure similar to the Value-at-Risk. The figure is calculated in two steps. First, there is a need to estimate the value of a portfolio of options for a number of different market scenarios, while the second step is to summarize the information content of the estimated scenarios into a single-sum risk measure. This involves the use of probability theory and return distributions, which confronts the user with the problems of non-normality in the return distribution of the underlying asset. Here the hyperbolic distribution is used to describe one alternative for dealing with heavy tails. Results indicate that the information content of implied volatility is useful when predicting future large returns in the underlying asset. Further, the hyperbolic distribution provides a good fit to historical returns enabling a more accurate definition of statistical intervals and extreme events.

Volatility Smile Dynamics in Scenario Analysis

The objective of this paper is to suggest a method that accounts for the impact of the volatility smile dynamics when performing scenario analysis for a portfolio consisting of vanilla options. As the volatility smile is documented to change at least with the level of implied at-the-money volatility, a suitable model is here included in the calculation process of the simulated market scenarios. By constructing simple portfolios of index options and comparing the ex ante risk exposure measured using different pricing methods to realized market values, ex post, the improvements of the incorporation of the model are monitored. The analyzed examples in the study generate results that statistically support that the most accurate scenarios are those calculated using the model accounting for the dynamics of the smile. Thus, we show that the differences emanating from the volatility smile are apparent and should be accounted for and that the methodology presented herein is one suitable alternative for doing so.

Passive immunization with an antibody to the beta-subunit of ovine luteinizing hormone as a method of early abortion--a feasibility study in monkeys (Macaca radiata)

Antiserum to the beta-subunit of ovine luteinizing hormone (oLH-beta) raised in monkeys (Macaca radiata) has been tested by a variety of criteria both in vivo and in vitro to establish its ability to neutralize oLH, hLH, and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). Passive administration of this antiserum caused inhibition of ovulation and termination of pregnancy in recipient monkeys as indicated by premature vaginal bleeding and a significant reduction in serum progesterone and estrogen levels. The results suggest that antiserum raised in monkeys against oLH-beta can neutralize monkey LH as well as monkey CG.