Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Cellular Automaton Approach to Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Spatial electric load forecasting using an evolutionary heuristic

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using elements from evolutionary algorithms is presented. The method uses concepts from knowledge extraction algorithms and linguistic rules' representation to characterize the preferences for land use into a spatial database. The future land use preferences in undeveloped zones in the electrical utility service area are determined using an evolutionary heuristic, which considers a stochastic behavior by crossing over similar rules. The method considers development of new zones and also redevelopment of existing ones. The results are presented in future preference maps. The tests in a real system from a midsized city show a high rate of success when results are compared with information gathered from the utility planning department. The most important features of this method are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability.

Aplicação de programação por metas binária: mista em uma empresa do setor sucroenergético

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Multi-Agent Framework for Spatial Load Forecasting

A multi-agent framework for spatial electric load forecasting, especially suited to simulate the different dynamics involved on distribution systems, is presented. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with a corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighbor zones are represented as development probabilities. With this setting, different kind of agents can be developed to simulate the growth pattern of the loads in distribution systems. This paper presents two different kinds of agents to simulate different situations, presenting some promissory results.

Evolutionary heuristic to determine future land use

In the spatial electric load forecasting, the future land use determination is one of the most important tasks, and one of the most difficult, because of the stochastic nature of the city growth. This paper proposes a fast and efficient algorithm to find out the future land use for the vacant land in the utility service area, using ideas from knowledge extraction and evolutionary algorithms. The methodology was implemented into a full simulation software for spatial electric load forecasting, showing a high rate of success when the results are compared to information gathered from specialists. The importance of this methodology lies in the reduced set of data needed to perform the task and the simplicity for implementation, which is a great plus for most of the electric utilities without specialized tools for this planning activity. © 2008 IEEE.

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

A multi-objective evaluation of the impact of the penetration of Distributed Generation

This paper proposes a methodology to consider the effects of the integration of DG on planning. Since DG has potential to defer investments in networks, the impact of DG on grid capacity is evaluated. A multi-objective optimization tool based on the meta-heuristic MEPSO is used, supporting an alternative approach to exploiting the Pareto front features. Tests were performed in distinct conditions with two well-known distribution networks: IEEE-34 and IEEE-123. The results combined minimization and maximization in order to produce different Pareto fronts and determine the extent of the impact caused by DG. The analysis provides useful information, such as the identification of futures that should be considered in planning. A future means a set of realizations of all uncertainties. MEPSO also presented a satisfactory performance in obtaining the Pareto fronts. © 2011 IEEE.

A multi-agent system with a percolation approach to simulate the driving pattern of Plug-In ELectric Vehicles

A multi-agent system with a percolation approach to simulate the driving pattern of Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV), especially suited to simulate the PEVs behavior on any distribution systems, is presented. This tool intends to complement information about the driving patterns database on systems where that kind of information is not available. So, this paper aims to provide a framework that is able to work with any kind of technology and load generated of PEVs. The service zone is divided into several sub-zones, each subzone is considered as an independent agent identified with corresponding load level, and their relationships with the neighboring zones are represented as network probabilities. A percolation approach is used to characterize the autonomy of the battery of the PVEs to move through the city. The methodology is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system. The result shows the sub-area where the battery of PEVs will need to be recharge and gives the planners of distribution systems the necessary input for a medium to long term network planning in a smart grid environment. © 2012 IEEE.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Aplicações de sistemas multiagentes na previsão espacial de demanda elétrica em sistemas de distribuição

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Alocação otimizada de bancos de capacitores em sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica através de metaheurísticas multiobjetivo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)