Statistical downscaling of river flows

An extensive statistical ‘downscaling’ study is done to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in SW France for 51 gauging stations ranging from nival (snow-dominated) to pluvial (rainfall-dominated) river-systems. This study helps to select the appropriate statistical method at a given spatial and temporal scale to downscale hydrology for future climate change impact assessment of hydrological resources. The four proposed statistical downscaling models use large-scale predictors (derived from climate model outputs or reanalysis data) that characterize precipitation and evaporation processes in the hydrological cycle to estimate summary flow statistics. The four statistical models used are generalized linear (GLM) and additive (GAM) models, aggregated boosted trees (ABT) and multi-layer perceptron neural networks (ANN). These four models were each applied at two different spatial scales, namely at that of a single flow-gauging station (local downscaling) and that of a group of flow-gauging stations having the same hydrological behaviour (regional downscaling). For each statistical model and each spatial resolution, three temporal resolutions were considered, namely the daily mean flows, the summary statistics of fortnightly flows and a daily ‘integrated approach’. The results show that flow sensitivity to atmospheric factors is significantly different between nival and pluvial hydrological systems which are mainly influenced, respectively, by shortwave solar radiations and atmospheric temperature. The non-linear models (i.e. GAM, ABT and ANN) performed better than the linear GLM when simulating fortnightly flow percentiles. The aggregated boosted trees method showed higher and less variable R2 values to downscale the hydrological variability in both nival and pluvial regimes. Based on GCM cnrm-cm3 and scenarios A2 and A1B, future relative changes of fortnightly median flows were projected based on the regional downscaling approach. The results suggest a global decrease of flow in both pluvial and nival regimes, especially in spring, summer and autumn, whatever the considered scenario. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling flow at different spatial and temporal scales as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability.

A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate cahgne projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.

The risk of river flooding

This section of the report outlines the effect of different levels of climate change on exposure to river flood risk, at national and watershed scales.

Verification Of The Standard Vector Data Model For Interoperability Of River-Geospatial Information

Recently, two international standard organizations, ISO and OGC, have done the work of standardization for GIS. Current standardization work for providing interoperability among GIS DB focuses on the design of open interfaces. But, this work has not considered procedures and methods for designing river geospatial data. Eventually, river geospatial data has its own model. When we share the data by open interface among heterogeneous GIS DB, differences between models result in the loss of information. In this study a plan was suggested both to respond to these changes in the information envirnment and to provide a future Smart River-based river information service by understanding the current state of river geospatial data model, improving, redesigning the database. Therefore, primary and foreign key, which can distinguish attribute information and entity linkages, were redefined to increase the usability. Database construction of attribute information and entity relationship diagram have been newly redefined to redesign linkages among tables from the perspective of a river standard database. In addition, this study was undertaken to expand the current supplier-oriented operating system to a demand-oriented operating system by establishing an efficient management of river-related information and a utilization system, capable of adapting to the changes of a river management paradigm.

Elimination and replacement of canine reservoir in an area endemic for visceral leishmaniasis

This work reviews studies about dog culling in Brazilian endemic areas for visceral leishmaniasis, as well as studies on dog replacement after euthanasia in areas where it is indicated as a control measure for this zoonosis.

A radiation hybrid map of river buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) chromosome 7 and comparative mapping to the cattle and human genomes

A preliminary radiation hybrid (RH) map containing 50 loci on chromosome 7 of the domestic river buffalo Bubalus bubalis (BBU; 2n = 50) was constructed based on a comparative mapping approach. The RH map of BBU7 includes thirty-seven gene markers and thirteen microsatellites. All loci have been previously assigned to Bos taurus (BTA) chromosome BTA6, which is known for its association with several economically important milk production traits in cattle. The map consists of two linkage groups spanning a total length of 627.9 cR(5,000). Comparative analysis of the BBU7 RH 5,000 map with BTA6 in cattle gave new evidence for strong similarity between the two chromosomes over their entire length and exposed minor differences in locus order. Comparison of the BBU7 RH 5,000 map with the Homo sapiens (HSA) genome revealed similarity with a large chromosome segment of HSA4. Comparative analysis of loci in both species revealed more variability than previously known in gene order and several chromosome rearrangements including centromere relocation. The data obtained in our study define the evolutionarily conserved segment on BBU7 and HSA4 to be between 3.5 megabases (Mb) and 115.8 Mb in the HSA4 (genome build 36) DNA sequence. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A radiation hybrid map of river buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) chromosome 1 (BBU1)

The largest chromosome in the river buffalo karyotype, BBU1, is a submetacentric chromosome with reported homology between BBU1q and bovine chromosome 1 and between BBU1p and BTA27. We present the first radiation hybrid map of this chromosome containing 69 cattle derived markers including 48 coding genes, 17 microsatellites and four ESTs distributed in two linkage groups spanning a total length of 1330.1 cR(5000). The RH map was constructed based on analysis of a recently developed river buffalo-hamster whole genome radiation hybrid (BBURH5000) panel. The retention frequency of individual markers across the panel ranged from 17.8 to 52.2%. With few exceptions, the order of markers within linkage groups is identical to the order established for corresponding cattle RH maps. The BBU1 map provides a starting point for comparison of gene order rearrangements between river buffalo chromosome 1 and its bovine homologs. Copyright (C) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Cytogenetics of three breeds of river buffalo (Bubalus bubalis L.), with evidence of a fragile site on the X chromosome

The cytogenetic study of 182 river buffalo (Bubalus bubalis L., 2n=50) of Murrah, Mediterranean and Jaffarabadi breeds, from the State of São Paulo, was carried out to characterize their chromosomes and to detect possible chromosomal abnormalities. The karyotypes were indistinguishable with conventional staining as well as with C and replication R banding techniques. In about 44% of the sample (8 males and 72 females), an X marker chromosome due to a fragile site was shown. The frequency of metaphases expressing the fragility site on the X was highly variable, from 2.86 to 41.03%. In females, the fragile site, rarely appeared on both X chromosomes. Most of the metaphases showed only 1 marker chromosome. In R-banded metaphases using 5-bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) treatment, it corresponded in general to the late replicating X chromosome. No correlation between the X fragile site and altered phenotype was found. Structural and numerical chromosome rearrangements were ruled out in the present sample of buffalo. (C) 1998 by Elsevier B.V.

Application of dissociation curve analysis to radiation hybrid panel marker scoring: generation of a map of river buffalo (B-bubalis) chromosome 20

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aquatic macrophytes of Itaipu Reservoir, Brazil: Survey of species and ecological considerations

In a survey of the aquatic macrophytes of the Itaipu Reservoir, we identified 62 taxa in 25 families and 42 genera. The highest number taxa was observed for the emergent macrophytes (40 taxa). Reduced fluctuation in water level, increased light penetration, and sediment enrichment by nutrients and organic matter following the formation of the reservoir favored the appearance of a species-rich community of submerged macrophytes (23% of the taxa identified). The aquatic macrophytes were found mainly near the mouths of the main tributaries of the reservoir, in shallow area of depth less than 2 meters. In addition to the shallow depth, the greater nutrient input from the tributaries and relative protection from wind explained this distribution. Among the species found, Egeria najas merits mention for its occurrence in all localities sampled, with biomass values varying between 98 and 186 gDW/m2. Some potential nuisance species such as Eichhornia crassipes, Salvinia auriculata, and Pistia stratiotes also deserve attention, since they were also observed to be covering large areas of Itaipu Reservoir. © 1999, Paraná Institute of Technology Publication.

Sistemas de organización administrativa para el desarrollo integrado de cuencas hidráulicas = Systems of administrative organization for the integrated development of river basins

Incluye Bibliografía

Informe del Seminario Internacional sobre Sistemas Integrados para el Desarrollo y Gestión de Cuencas Hidrográficas en la Región Andina de América Latina = Report of the International Seminar on Integrated Systems for the Development and Management of River Basins in the Andean Region of Latin America

Contiene organización de los trabajos, resumen de los debates y recomendaciones y conclusiones. Incluye además, definición de términos utilizados; criterios para definir las principales características y necesidades de las zonas altas de la Región Andina; lista de participantes y lista de documentos presentados en el Seminario.