COMPARING RAINFALL INTENSITY DURATION RELATIONSHIPS FOR SITES OF THE STATE OF SAO PAULO

Rainfall intensity durations relationships are extremely important in the design of systems for mitigating runoff losses. The objective of this work was to compare rainfall depths generated by the PLUVIO 2.1 software, with depths from the standard intensity duration curves developed by MARTINEZ & MAGNI (1999). It was compared rainfall intensities of 10, 20, 30, 60, 120 and 1440 minute durations for 2, 5, 10, 50 and 100 year return periods for 30 sites in the state of Sao Paulo. The results showed that PLUVIO was effective, except in predicting the 24 hours rainfall from 100 year return period events in four locations in the central and eastern regions of the state.

Dimensionamento di invasi per il controllo dei deflussi nei bacini urbanizzati

Urbanization is a continuing phenomenon in all the world. Grasslands, forests, etc. are being continually changed to residential, commercial and industrial complexes, roads and streets, and so on. One of the side effects of urbanization with which engineers and planners must deal with, is the increase of peak flows and volumes of runoff from rainfall events. As a result, the urban drainage and flood control systems must be designed to accommodate the peak flows from a variety of storms that may occur. Usually the peak flow, after development, is required not to exceed what would have occurred from the same storm under conditions existing prior to development. In order to do this it is necessary to design detention storage to hold back runoff and to release it downstream at controlled rates. In the first part of the work have been developed various simplified formulations that can be adopted for the design of stormwater detention facilities. In order to obtain a simplified hydrograph were adopted two approaches: the kinematic routing technique and the linear reservoir schematization. For the two approaches have been also obtained other two formulations depending if the IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curve is described with two or three parameters. Other formulations have been developed taking into account if the outlet have a constant discharge or it depends on the water level in the pond. All these formulations can be easily applied when are known the characteristics of the drainage system and maximum discharge that these is in the outlet and has been defined a Return Period which characterize the IDF curve. In this way the volume of the detention pond can be calculated. In the second part of the work have been analyzed the design of detention ponds adopting continuous simulation models. The drainage systems adopted for the simulations, performed with SWMM5, are fictitious systems characterized by different sizes, and different shapes of the catchments and with a rainfall historical time series of 16 years recorded in Bologna. This approach suffers from the fact that continuous record of rainfall is often not available and when it is, the cost of such modelling can be very expensive, and that the majority of design practitioners are not prepared to use continuous long term modelling in the design of stormwater detention facilities. In the third part of the work have been analyzed statistical and stochastic methodologies in order to define the volume of the detention pond. In particular have been adopted the results of the long term simulation, performed with SWMM, to obtain the data to apply statistic and stochastic formulation. All these methodologies have been compared and correction coefficient have been proposed on the basis of the statistic and stochastic form. In this way engineers which have to design a detention pond can apply a simplified procedure appropriately corrected with the proposed coefficient.

Applications of remote sensing and geographic information systems in geomorphological studies: Safaga - El Quseir area, Red Sea coast, Egypt as an example

In den letzten drei Jahrzehnten sind Fernerkundung und GIS in den Geowissenschaften zunehmend wichtiger geworden, um die konventionellen Methoden von Datensammlung und zur Herstellung von Landkarten zu verbessern. Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Anwendung von Fernerkundung und geographischen Informationssystemen (GIS) für geomorphologische Untersuchungen. Durch die Kombination beider Techniken ist es vor allem möglich geworden, geomorphologische Formen im Überblick und dennoch detailliert zu erfassen. Als Grundlagen werden in dieser Arbeit topographische und geologische Karten, Satellitenbilder und Klimadaten benutzt. Die Arbeit besteht aus 6 Kapiteln. Das erste Kapitel gibt einen allgemeinen Überblick über den Untersuchungsraum. Dieser umfasst folgende morphologische Einheiten, klimatischen Verhältnisse, insbesondere die Ariditätsindizes der Küsten- und Gebirgslandschaft sowie das Siedlungsmuster beschrieben. Kapitel 2 befasst sich mit der regionalen Geologie und Stratigraphie des Untersuchungsraumes. Es wird versucht, die Hauptformationen mit Hilfe von ETM-Satellitenbildern zu identifizieren. Angewandt werden hierzu folgende Methoden: Colour Band Composite, Image Rationing und die sog. überwachte Klassifikation. Kapitel 3 enthält eine Beschreibung der strukturell bedingten Oberflächenformen, um die Wechselwirkung zwischen Tektonik und geomorphologischen Prozessen aufzuklären. Es geht es um die vielfältigen Methoden, zum Beispiel das sog. Image Processing, um die im Gebirgskörper vorhandenen Lineamente einwandfrei zu deuten. Spezielle Filtermethoden werden angewandt, um die wichtigsten Lineamente zu kartieren. Kapitel 4 stellt den Versuch dar, mit Hilfe von aufbereiteten SRTM-Satellitenbildern eine automatisierte Erfassung des Gewässernetzes. Es wird ausführlich diskutiert, inwieweit bei diesen Arbeitsschritten die Qualität kleinmaßstäbiger SRTM-Satellitenbilder mit großmaßstäbigen topographischen Karten vergleichbar ist. Weiterhin werden hydrologische Parameter über eine qualitative und quantitative Analyse des Abflussregimes einzelner Wadis erfasst. Der Ursprung von Entwässerungssystemen wird auf der Basis geomorphologischer und geologischer Befunde interpretiert. Kapitel 5 befasst sich mit der Abschätzung der Gefahr episodischer Wadifluten. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit ihres jährlichen Auftretens bzw. des Auftretens starker Fluten im Abstand mehrerer Jahre wird in einer historischen Betrachtung bis 1921 zurückverfolgt. Die Bedeutung von Regentiefs, die sich über dem Roten Meer entwickeln, und die für eine Abflussbildung in Frage kommen, wird mit Hilfe der IDW-Methode (Inverse Distance Weighted) untersucht. Betrachtet werden außerdem weitere, regenbringende Wetterlagen mit Hilfe von Meteosat Infrarotbildern. Genauer betrachtet wird die Periode 1990-1997, in der kräftige, Wadifluten auslösende Regenfälle auftraten. Flutereignisse und Fluthöhe werden anhand von hydrographischen Daten (Pegelmessungen) ermittelt. Auch die Landnutzung und Siedlungsstruktur im Einzugsgebiet eines Wadis wird berücksichtigt. In Kapitel 6 geht es um die unterschiedlichen Küstenformen auf der Westseite des Roten Meeres zum Beispiel die Erosionsformen, Aufbauformen, untergetauchte Formen. Im abschließenden Teil geht es um die Stratigraphie und zeitliche Zuordnung von submarinen Terrassen auf Korallenriffen sowie den Vergleich mit anderen solcher Terrassen an der ägyptischen Rotmeerküste westlich und östlich der Sinai-Halbinsel.

Seismic Serviceability Assessment of Water Distribution Systems

Water distribution systems are important for life saving facilities especially in the recovery after earthquakes. In this paper, a framework is discussed about seismic serviceability of water systems that includes the fragility evaluation of water sources of water distribution networks. Also, a case study is brought about the performance of a water system under different levels of seismic hazard. The seismic serviceability of a water supply system provided by EPANET is evaluated under various levels of seismic hazard. Basically, the assessment process is based on hydraulic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, implemented with empirical fragility data provided by the American Lifeline Alliance (ALA, 2001) for both pipelines and water facilities. Represented by the Seismic Serviceability Index (Cornell University, 2008), the serviceability of the water distribution system is evaluated under each level of earthquakes with return periods of 72 years, 475 years, and 2475 years. The system serviceability under levels of earthquake hazard are compared with and without considering the seismic fragility of the water source. The results show that the seismic serviceability of the water system decreases with the growing of the return period of seismic hazard, and after considering the seismic fragility of the water source, the seismic serviceability decreases. The results reveal the importance of considering the seismic fragility of water sources, and the growing dependence of the system performance of water system on the seismic resilience of water source under severe earthquakes.

Lateral sediment sources and knickzones as controls on spatio-temporal variations of sediment transport in an Alpine river

Modern mixed alluvial-bedrock channels in mountainous areas provide natural laboratories for understanding the time scales at which coarse-grained material has been entrained and transported from their sources to the adjacent sedimentary sink, where these deposits are preserved as conglomerates. This article assesses the shear stress conditions needed for the entrainment of the coarse-bed particles in the Glogn River that drains the 400 km2 Val Lumnezia basin, eastern Swiss Alps. In addition, quantitative data are presented on sediment transport patterns in this stream. The longitudinal stream profile of this river is characterized by three ca 500 m long knickzones where channel gradients range from 0·02 to 0·2 m m−1, and where the valley bottom confined into a <10 m wide gorge. Downstream of these knickzones, the stream is flat with gradients <0·01 m m−1 and widths ≥30 m. Measurements of the grain-size distribution along the trunk stream yield a mean D84 value of ca 270 mm, whereas the mean D50 is ca 100 mm. The consequences of the channel morphology and the grain-size distribution for the time scales of sediment transport were explored by using a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model (Hydrologic Engineering Centre – River Analysis System). The results reveal that, along the entire trunk stream, a two to 10 year return period flood event is capable of mobilizing both the D50 and D84 fractions where the Shields stress exceeds the critical Shields stress for the initiation of particle motion. These return periods, however, varied substantially depending on the channel geometry and the pebble/boulder size distribution of the supplied material. Accordingly, the stream exhibits a highly dynamic boulder cover behaviour. It is likely that these time scales might also have been at work when coarse-grained conglomerates were constructed in the geological past.

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Effect of reservoir tillage on rainwater harvesting and soil erosion control under a developed rainfall simulator.

Soil erosion is a serious environmental threat in the Mediterranean region due to torrential rainfalls, and it contributes to the degradation of agricultural land. Techniques such as rainwater harvesting may improve soil water storage and increase agricultural productivity, which could result in more effective land usage. Reservoir tillage is an effective system of harvesting rainwater, but it has not been scientifically evaluated like other tillage systems. Its suitability for the conditions in Spain has not been determined. To investigate and quantify water storage from reservoir tillage and how it could be adapted to improve infiltration of harvested rainwater, a laboratory-scale rainfall simulator was developed. Rainfall characteristics, including rainfall intensity, spatial uniformity and raindrop size, confirm that natural rainfall conditions are simulated with sufficient accuracy. The simulator was auto-controlled by a solenoid valve and three pressure nozzles were used to spray water corresponding to five rainfall intensities ranging from 36 to 112 mm h-1 for 3 to 101-year return period with uniformity coefficients between 83 and 94%. In order to assess the reservoir tillage method under surface slopes of 0, 5, and 10%, three soil scooping devices with identical volume were used to make depressions in the following forms: a) truncated square pyramid, b) triangular prism, and c) truncated cone. These depressions were compared to a control soil surface with no depression. For the loam soil used in this study, results show that reservoir tillage was able to reduce soil erosion and surface runoff and significantly increase infiltration. There was significant difference between the depressions and the control. Compared to the control, depression (a) reduced surface runoff by about 61% and the sediment yield concentration by about 79%.

Uncertainties in the design of support structures and foundations for offshore wind turbines

Offshore wind industry has exponentially grown in the last years. Despite this growth, there are still many uncertainties in this field. This paper analyzes some current uncertainties in the offshore wind market, with the aim of going one step further in the development of this sector. To do this, some already identified uncertainties compromising offshore wind farm structural design have been identified and described in the paper. Examples of these identified uncertainties are the design of the transition piece and the difficulties for the soil properties characterization. Furthermore, this paper deals with other uncertainties not identified yet due to the limited experience in the sector. To do that, current and most used offshore wind standards and recommendations related to the design of foundation and support structures (IEC 61400-1, 2005; IEC 61400-3, 2009; DNV-OS-J101, Design of Offshore Wind Turbine, 2013 and Rules and Guidelines Germanischer Lloyd, WindEnergie, 2005) have been analyzed. These new identified uncertainties are related to the lifetime and return period, loads combination, scour phenomenon and its protection, Morison e Froude Krilov and diffraction regimes, wave theory, different scale and liquefaction. In fact, there are a lot of improvements to make in this field. Some of them are mentioned in this paper, but the future experience in the matter will make it possible to detect more issues to be solved and improved.

Modelización de la zona de inundación del río Forcón-Barranca a su paso por San Miguel de Reinante

El presente proyecto muestra el estudio realizado para evaluar la capacidad de drenaje de la canalización construida en el río Forcón-Barranca, en la población de San Miguel de Reinante (Lugo), a consecuencia de las severas inundaciones acaecidas los días 9 y 10 de junio de 2010. Para evaluar y analizar la peligrosidad se ha seguido un método hidrometeorológico agregado, debido a la falta de aforos, pluviómetros y datos, y se han usado Modelos Digitales de Elevaciones como punto de partida. Todo ello ha llevado a la conclusión de la ineficacia del canal para un período de retorno de 500 años. ABSTRACT After severe flooding in San Miguel de Reinante (Lugo) the 9th and 10th June 2010, a concrete channel was built. This project assesses the drainage capacity of such channel, performing a flood hazard analysis. Because no flow measures or rain gauge data were available a lumped model was followed in order to evaluate flood hazard, using Digital Elevation Models as a starting point. This has led to the conclusion that the channel cannot effectively drain a flow after a rainfall with a return period of 500 years.

Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Evaluación cuantitativa de pérdidas por peligros geológicos. Caso del archipiélago de Canarias: Inundaciones, sismicidad y vulcanismo

Existe una creciente preocupación por las catástrofes de origen natural que están por llegar, motivo por el que se están realizando estudios desde prácticamente todas las ramas de la ciencia. La razón para ello se puede encontrar en el miedo a que los eventos futuros puedan dificultar las actividades humanas, aunque no es el único factor. Por todo ello, se produce una dispersión muy importante incluso en los conceptos más elementales como qué debe ser considerado o cómo debe llamarse y catalogarse uno u otro elemento. En consecuencia, los métodos para comprender los riesgos naturales también son muy diferentes, rara vez encontrándose enfoques realmente multidisciplinares. Se han realizado algunos esfuerzos para crear un marco de entendimiento común como por ejemplo, la "Directiva sobre inundaciones" o, más recientemente, la Directiva Inspire. Las entidades aseguradoras y reaseguradoras son un actor importante entre los muchos involucrados en los estudios de riesgos. Su interés radica en el hecho de que terminan pagando la mayor parte de la factura, si no toda. Pero, a cuánto puede ascender esa factura, no es una pregunta fácil de responder aún en casos muy concretos, y sin embargo, es la pregunta que constantemente se plantea por parte de los tomadores de decisiones a todos los niveles. Este documento resume las actividades de investigación que han llevado a cabo al objeto de sentar un marco de referencia, implementando de enfoques numéricos capaces de hacer frente a algunas de las cuestiones más relevantes que se encuentran en casi todos los estudios de riesgos naturales, ensayando conceptos de manera pragmática. Para ello, se escogió un lugar experimental de acuerdo a diferentes criterios, como la densidad de población, la facilidad de proporcionar los límites geográficos claros, la presencia de tres de los procesos geológicos más importantes (inundaciones, terremotos y vulcanismo) y la disponibilidad de datos. El modelo aquí propuesto aprovecha fuentes de datos muy diversas para evaluar los peligros naturales, poniendo de relieve la necesidad de un enfoque multidisciplinar y emplea un catálogo de datos único, unificado, independiente (no orientado), coherente y homogéneo para estimar el valor de las propiedades. Ahora bien, los datos se explotan de manera diferente según cada tipo de peligro, manteniendo sin variación los conceptos subyacentes. Durante esta investigación, se ha encontrado una gran brecha en la relación entre las pérdidas reales y las probabilidades del peligro, algo contrario a lo que se ha pensado que debía ser el comportamiento más probable de los riesgos naturales, demostrando que los estudios de riesgo tienen vida útil muy limitada. En parte debido ello, el modelo propuesto en este estudio es el de trabajar con escenarios, fijando una probabilidad de ocurrencia, lo que es contrario al modelo clásico de evaluar funciones continuas de riesgo. Otra razón para abordar la cuestión mediante escenarios es forzar al modelo para proporcionar unas cifras creíbles de daño máximo fijando cuestiones como la ubicación espacial de un evento y sus probabilidades, aportando una nueva visión del "peor escenario posible” de probabilidad conocida. ABSTRACT There is a growing concern about catastrophes of natural origin about to come hence many studies are being carried out from almost any science branch. Even though it is not the only one, fear for the upcoming events that might jeopardize any given human activity is the main motive. A forking effect is therefore heavily present even on the basic concepts of what is to be considered or how should it be named and catalogued; as a consequence, methods towards understanding natural risks also show great differences and a multidisciplinary approach has seldomly been followed. Some efforts were made to create a common understanding of such a matter, the “Floods Directive” or more recently the Inspire Directive, are a couple of examples. The insurance sector is an important actor among the many involved. Their interest relies on the fact that, eventually, they pay most of the bill if not all. But how much could that be is not an easy question to be answerd even in a very specific case, and it is almost always the question posed by decision makers at all levels. This document summarizes research activities that have being carried out in order to put some solid ground to be followed, implementing numerical approaches that are capable of coping with some of the most relevant issues found in almost all natural risk studies, testing concepts pragmatically. In order to do so, an experimental site was selected according to different criteria, such as population density, the ease of providing clear geographical boundaries, the presence of three of the most important geological processes (floods, earthquakes and volcanism) and data availability. The model herein proposed takes advantage of very diferent data sources in the assessment of hazard, pointing out how a multidisciplinary approach is needed, and uses only one unified, independent, consistent, homogeneous (non objective driven) source for assessing property value. Data is exploited differently according to each hazard type, but the underlying concepts remain the same. During this research, a deep detachment was found between actual loss and hazard chances, contrarily to what has been thought to be the most likely behaviour of natural hazards, proving that risk studies have a very limited lifespan. Partially because of such finding, the model in this study addresses scenarios with fixed probability of occurrence, as opposed to studying a continuous hazard function as usually proposed. Another reason for studying scenarios was to force the model to provide a reliable figure after a set of given parameters where fixed, such as the spatial location of an event and its chances, so the “worst case” of a given return period could be found.

Runup variability due to time dependence and stochasticity in the beach profiles: two extreme cases of the Spanish coast

Equations for extreme runup worked out from several experimental studies are compared. Infragraviatory oscillations dominate the swash in a dissipative state but not in intermediate - reflective states. Therefore two kinds of equation depending on either significant wave height, H-0, or the Iribarren number, xi(0), should be used. Through a sand bed physical model with a uniform sand bed slope, equations are proposed for both beach states, and results are compared with precedent field and physical model experiments. Once the equations are chosen, the time-longshore variability in a medium - long term time scale of the foreshore slope is evaluated in two extreme cases relating to the Spanish coast. The Salinas beach on the North coast (Bay of Biscay) displayed a permanent dissipative beach state with small variations in the beach foreshore slope both along the shore and in time, so foreshore slope deviations in a medium-long term period were irrelevant and extreme runup is predicted with the wave height worked out from the design return period. Peniscola beach on the East coast (Mediterranean sea) displayed an intermediate state. If only time variations are analysed, variations in determining extreme runup are irrelevant. In contrast, significant differences were found when the longshore variations were studied in this Mediterranean beach.

Effect of reservoir tillage on rainwater havesting and soil erosion control under a developed rainfall simulator

Soil erosion is a serious environmental threat in the Mediterranean region due to torrential rainfalls, and it contributes to the degradation of agricultural land. Techniques such as rainwater harvesting may improve soil water storage and increase agricultural productivity, which could result in more effective land usage. Reservoir tillage is an effective system of harvesting rainwater, but it has not been scientifically evaluated like other tillage systems. Its suitability for the conditions in Spain has not been determined. To investigate and quantify water storage from reservoir tillage and how it could be adapted to improve infiltration of harvested rainwater, a laboratory-scale rainfall simulator was developed. Rainfall characteristics, including rainfall intensity, spatial uniformity and raindrop size, confirm that natural rainfall conditions are simulated with sufficient accuracy. The simulator was auto-controlled by a solenoid valve and three pressure nozzles were used to spray water corresponding to five rainfall intensities ranging from 36 to 112 mm h− 1 for 3 to 101-year return period with uniformity coefficients between 83 and 94%. In order to assess the reservoir tillage method under surface slopes of 0, 5, and 10%, three soil scooping devices with identical volume were used to make depressions in the following forms: a) truncated square pyramid, b) triangular prism, and c) truncated cone. These depressions were compared to a control soil surface with no depression. For the loam soil used in this study, results show that reservoir tillage was able to reduce soil erosion and surface runoff and significantly increase infiltration. There was significant difference between the depressions and the control. Compared to the control, depression (a) reduced surface runoff by about 61% and the sediment yield concentration by about 79%.

Desarrollo de metodologías para mejorar la estimación de los hidrogramas de diseño para el cálculo de los órganos de desagüe de las presas

En la presente Tesis se ha llevado a cabo el contraste y desarrollo de metodologías que permitan mejorar el cálculo de las avenidas de proyecto y extrema empleadas en el cálculo de la seguridad hidrológica de las presas. En primer lugar se ha abordado el tema del cálculo de las leyes de frecuencia de caudales máximos y su extrapolación a altos periodos de retorno. Esta cuestión es de gran relevancia, ya que la adopción de estándares de seguridad hidrológica para las presas cada vez más exigentes, implica la utilización de periodos de retorno de diseño muy elevados cuya estimación conlleva una gran incertidumbre. Es importante, en consecuencia incorporar al cálculo de los caudales de diseño todas la técnicas disponibles para reducir dicha incertidumbre. Asimismo, es importante hacer una buena selección del modelo estadístico (función de distribución y procedimiento de ajuste) de tal forma que se garantice tanto su capacidad para describir el comportamiento de la muestra, como para predecir de manera robusta los cuantiles de alto periodo de retorno. De esta forma, se han realizado estudios a escala nacional con el objetivo de determinar el esquema de regionalización que ofrece mejores resultados para las características hidrológicas de las cuencas españolas, respecto a los caudales máximos anuales, teniendo en cuenta el numero de datos disponibles. La metodología utilizada parte de la identificación de regiones homogéneas, cuyos límites se han determinado teniendo en cuenta las características fisiográficas y climáticas de las cuencas, y la variabilidad de sus estadísticos, comprobando posteriormente su homogeneidad. A continuación, se ha seleccionado el modelo estadístico de caudales máximos anuales con un mejor comportamiento en las distintas zonas de la España peninsular, tanto para describir los datos de la muestra como para extrapolar a los periodos de retorno más altos. El proceso de selección se ha basado, entre otras cosas, en la generación sintética de series de datos mediante simulaciones de Monte Carlo, y el análisis estadístico del conjunto de resultados obtenido a partir del ajuste de funciones de distribución a estas series bajo distintas hipótesis. Posteriormente, se ha abordado el tema de la relación caudal-volumen y la definición de los hidrogramas de diseño en base a la misma, cuestión que puede ser de gran importancia en el caso de presas con grandes volúmenes de embalse. Sin embargo, los procedimientos de cálculo hidrológico aplicados habitualmente no tienen en cuenta la dependencia estadística entre ambas variables. En esta Tesis se ha desarrollado un procedimiento para caracterizar dicha dependencia estadística de una manera sencilla y robusta, representando la función de distribución conjunta del caudal punta y el volumen en base a la función de distribución marginal del caudal punta y la función de distribución condicionada del volumen respecto al caudal. Esta última se determina mediante una función de distribución log-normal, aplicando un procedimiento de ajuste regional. Se propone su aplicación práctica a través de un procedimiento de cálculo probabilístico basado en la generación estocástica de un número elevado de hidrogramas. La aplicación a la seguridad hidrológica de las presas de este procedimiento requiere interpretar correctamente el concepto de periodo de retorno aplicado a variables hidrológicas bivariadas. Para ello, se realiza una propuesta de interpretación de dicho concepto. El periodo de retorno se entiende como el inverso de la probabilidad de superar un determinado nivel de embalse. Al relacionar este periodo de retorno con las variables hidrológicas, el hidrograma de diseño de la presa deja de ser un único hidrograma para convertirse en una familia de hidrogramas que generan un mismo nivel máximo en el embalse, representados mediante una curva en el plano caudal volumen. Esta familia de hidrogramas de diseño depende de la propia presa a diseñar, variando las curvas caudal-volumen en función, por ejemplo, del volumen de embalse o la longitud del aliviadero. El procedimiento propuesto se ilustra mediante su aplicación a dos casos de estudio. Finalmente, se ha abordado el tema del cálculo de las avenidas estacionales, cuestión fundamental a la hora de establecer la explotación de la presa, y que puede serlo también para estudiar la seguridad hidrológica de presas existentes. Sin embargo, el cálculo de estas avenidas es complejo y no está del todo claro hoy en día, y los procedimientos de cálculo habitualmente utilizados pueden presentar ciertos problemas. El cálculo en base al método estadístico de series parciales, o de máximos sobre un umbral, puede ser una alternativa válida que permite resolver esos problemas en aquellos casos en que la generación de las avenidas en las distintas estaciones se deba a un mismo tipo de evento. Se ha realizado un estudio con objeto de verificar si es adecuada en España la hipótesis de homogeneidad estadística de los datos de caudal de avenida correspondientes a distintas estaciones del año. Asimismo, se han analizado los periodos estacionales para los que es más apropiado realizar el estudio, cuestión de gran relevancia para garantizar que los resultados sean correctos, y se ha desarrollado un procedimiento sencillo para determinar el umbral de selección de los datos de tal manera que se garantice su independencia, una de las principales dificultades en la aplicación práctica de la técnica de las series parciales. Por otra parte, la aplicación practica de las leyes de frecuencia estacionales requiere interpretar correctamente el concepto de periodo de retorno para el caso estacional. Se propone un criterio para determinar los periodos de retorno estacionales de forma coherente con el periodo de retorno anual y con una distribución adecuada de la probabilidad entre las distintas estaciones. Por último, se expone un procedimiento para el cálculo de los caudales estacionales, ilustrándolo mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio. The compare and develop of a methodology in order to improve the extreme flow estimation for dam hydrologic security has been developed. First, the work has been focused on the adjustment of maximum peak flows distribution functions from which to extrapolate values for high return periods. This has become a major issue as the adoption of stricter standards on dam hydrologic security involves estimation of high design return periods which entails great uncertainty. Accordingly, it is important to incorporate all available techniques for the estimation of design peak flows in order to reduce this uncertainty. Selection of the statistical model (distribution function and adjustment method) is also important since its ability to describe the sample and to make solid predictions for high return periods quantiles must be guaranteed. In order to provide practical application of previous methodologies, studies have been developed on a national scale with the aim of determining a regionalization scheme which features best results in terms of annual maximum peak flows for hydrologic characteristics of Spanish basins taking into account the length of available data. Applied methodology starts with the delimitation of regions taking into account basin’s physiographic and climatic characteristics and the variability of their statistical properties, and continues with their homogeneity testing. Then, a statistical model for maximum annual peak flows is selected with the best behaviour for the different regions in peninsular Spain in terms of describing sample data and making solid predictions for high return periods. This selection has been based, among others, on synthetic data series generation using Monte Carlo simulations and statistical analysis of results from distribution functions adjustment following different hypothesis. Secondly, the work has been focused on the analysis of the relationship between peak flow and volume and how to define design flood hydrographs based on this relationship which can be highly important for large volume reservoirs. However, commonly used hydrologic procedures do not take statistical dependence between these variables into account. A simple and sound method for statistical dependence characterization has been developed by the representation of a joint distribution function of maximum peak flow and volume which is based on marginal distribution function of peak flow and conditional distribution function of volume for a given peak flow. The last one is determined by a regional adjustment procedure of a log-normal distribution function. Practical application is proposed by a probabilistic estimation procedure based on stochastic generation of a large number of hydrographs. The use of this procedure for dam hydrologic security requires a proper interpretation of the return period concept applied to bivariate hydrologic data. A standard is proposed in which it is understood as the inverse of the probability of exceeding a determined reservoir level. When relating return period and hydrological variables the only design flood hydrograph changes into a family of hydrographs which generate the same maximum reservoir level and that are represented by a curve in the peak flow-volume two-dimensional space. This family of design flood hydrographs depends on the dam characteristics as for example reservoir volume or spillway length. Two study cases illustrate the application of the developed methodology. Finally, the work has been focused on the calculation of seasonal floods which are essential when determining the reservoir operation and which can be also fundamental in terms of analysing the hydrologic security of existing reservoirs. However, seasonal flood calculation is complex and nowadays it is not totally clear. Calculation procedures commonly used may present certain problems. Statistical partial duration series, or peaks over threshold method, can be an alternative approach for their calculation that allow to solve problems encountered when the same type of event is responsible of floods in different seasons. A study has been developed to verify the hypothesis of statistical homogeneity of peak flows for different seasons in Spain. Appropriate seasonal periods have been analyzed which is highly relevant to guarantee correct results. In addition, a simple procedure has been defined to determine data selection threshold on a way that ensures its independency which is one of the main difficulties in practical application of partial series. Moreover, practical application of seasonal frequency laws requires a correct interpretation of the concept of seasonal return period. A standard is proposed in order to determine seasonal return periods coherently with the annual return period and with an adequate seasonal probability distribution. Finally a methodology is proposed to calculate seasonal peak flows. A study case illustrates the application of the proposed methodology.