The identification and quantification of temperature-related mortality

The relationship between weather and mortality has been observed for centuries. Recently, studies on temperature-related mortality have become a popular topic as climate change continues. Most of the previous studies found that exposure to hot or cold temperature affects mortality. This study aims to address three research questions: 1. What is the overall effect of daily mean temperature variation on the elderly mortality in the published literature using a meta-analysis approach? 2. Does the association between temperature and mortality differ with age, sex, or socio-economic status in Brisbane? 3. How is the magnitude of the lag effects of the daily mean temperature on mortality varied by age and cause-of-death groups in Brisbane? In the meta-analysis, there was a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1ºC decrease during cold temperature intervals and a 2-5% increase for a 1ºC increment during hot temperature intervals among the elderly. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality, but no significant lag effects were observed for hot temperature intervals. In Brisbane, the harmful effect of high temperature (over 24ºC) on mortality appeared to be greater among the elderly than other age groups. The effect estimate among women was greater than among men. However, No evidence was found that socio-economic status modified the temperature-mortality relationship. The results of this research also show longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. For 3-day hot effects associated with 1°C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increases in mortality occurred among people aged 85 years or over (5.4% (95% CI: 1.4%, 9.5%)) compared with all age group (3.2% (95% CI: 0.9%, 5.6%)). The effect estimate among cardiovascular deaths was slightly higher than those among all-cause mortality. For overall 21-day cold effects associated with a 1°C decrease below the threshold, the percent estimates in mortality for people aged 85 years or over, and from cardiovascular diseases were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%), respectively compared with all age group (2.0% (95% CI: 0.7%, 3.3%)). Little research of this kind has been conducted in the Southern Hemisphere. This PhD research may contribute to the quantitative assessment of the overall impact, effect modification and lag effects of temperature variation on mortality in Australia and The findings may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policies to reduce and prevent temperature-related health problems.

The effect of housing characteristics and occupant activities on the respiratory health of women and children in Lao PDR

The paper presents the results of a study conducted into the relationship between dwelling characteristics and occupant activities with the respiratory health of resident women and children in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). Lao is one of the least developed countries in south-east Asia with poor life expectancies and mortality rates. The study, commissioned by the World Health Organisation, included questionnaires delivered to residents of 356 dwellings in nine districts in Lao PDR over a five month period (December 2005-April 2006), with the aim of identifying the association between respiratory health and indoor air pollution, in particular exposures related to indoor biomass burning. Adjusted odds ratios were calculated for each health outcome separately using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, a wide range of symptoms of respiratory illness in women and children aged 1-4 years were positively associated with a range of indoor exposures related to indoor cooking, including exposure to a fire and location of the cooking place. Among women, “dust always inside the house” and smoking were also identified as strong risk factors for respiratory illness. Other strong risk factors for children, after adjusting for age and gender, included dust and drying clothes inside. This analysis confirms the role of indoor air pollution in the burden of disease among women and children in Lao PDR.

Respiratory health effects of diesel particulate matter

Particulate matter (PM) emissions involve a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles suspended in a gas, where it is noted that PM emissions from diesel engines are a major contributor to the ambient air pollution problem. Whilst epidemiological studies have shown a link between increased ambient PM emissions and respiratory morbidity and mortality, studies of this design are not able to identify the PM constituents responsible for driving adverse respiratory health effects. This review explores in detail the physico-chemical properties of diesel particulate matter (DPM), and identifies the constituents of this pollution source that are responsible for the development of respiratory disease. In particular, this review shows that the DPM surface area and adsorbed organic compounds play a significant role in manifesting chemical and cellular processes that if sustained can lead to the development of adverse respiratory health effects. The mechanisms of injury involved included: inflammation, innate and acquired immunity, and oxidative stress. Understanding the mechanisms of lung injury from DPM will enhance efforts to protect at-risk individuals from the harmful respiratory effects of air pollutants.

Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

The development of chronic cough in children following presentation to a tertiary paediatric emergency department with acute respiratory illness : study protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background Acute respiratory illness, a leading cause of cough in children, accounts for a substantial proportion of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. In some children acute cough progresses to chronic cough (> 4 weeks duration), impacting on morbidity and decreasing quality of life. Despite the importance of chronic cough as a cause of substantial childhood morbidity and associated economic, family and social costs, data on the prevalence, predictors, aetiology and natural history of the symptom are scarce. This study aims to comprehensively describe the epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of cough during and after acute respiratory illness in children presenting to a tertiary paediatric emergency department. Methods/design A prospective cohort study of children aged <15 years attending the Royal Children's Hospital Emergency Department, Brisbane, for a respiratory illness that includes parent reported cough (wet or dry) as a symptom. The primary objective is to determine the prevalence and predictors of chronic cough (>= 4 weeks duration) post presentation with acute respiratory illness. Demographic, epidemiological, risk factor, microbiological and clinical data are completed at enrolment. Subjects complete daily cough dairies and weekly follow-up contacts for 28(+/-3) days to ascertain cough persistence. Children who continue to cough for 28 days post enrolment are referred to a paediatric respiratory physician for review. Primary analysis will be the proportion of children with persistent cough at day 28(+/-3). Multivariate analyses will be performed to evaluate variables independently associated with chronic cough at day 28(+/-3). Discussion Our protocol will be the first to comprehensively describe the natural history, epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of cough during and after acute respiratory illness in children. The results will contribute to studies leading to the development of evidence-based clinical guidelines to improve the early detection and management of chronic cough in children during and after acute respiratory illness.

Lower respiratory infections in Australian Indigenous children

Despite Australia being one of the wealthiest countries of the world, Australian Indigenous children have a health status and social circumstance comparable to developing countries. Indigenous infants have 10 times the mortality rate for respiratory conditions. The lower respiratory infection (LRI) rate in Australian Indigenous children is at least as high as that of children in developing countries; the frequency of hospitalisations of Indigenous infants is triple that of non-Indigenous Australian infants (201.7 vs. 62.6/1000, respectively). While Indigenous Australian children have many risk factors for LRIs described in developing countries, there is little specific data, and hence, evidence-based intervention points are yet to be identified. Efficacy of conjugate vaccines for common bacterial causes of pneumonia has been less marked in Indigenous children than that documented overseas. Gaps in the management and prevention of disease are glaring. Given the burden of LRI in Indigenous children and the association with long-term respiratory dysfunction, LRIs should be addressed as a matter of priority.

Lung recruitment manoeuvres for reducing respiratory morbidity in mechanically ventilated neonates

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: To determine the evidence supporting the use of recruitment manoeuvres in mechanically ventilated neonates and identify the optimal method of lung recruitment. To determine the effects of lung recruitment manoeuvres in neonates receiving ventilatory support on neonatal mortality and development of chronic lung disease when compared to no recruitment. If data are available, subgroup analyses will include: chronological age, gestational age, lung pathophysiology and pre-existing lung disease, mode and length of ventilation, timing and frequency of recruitment techniques.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Mortality reduction following the air pollution control measures during the 2010 Asian Games

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

Infections in lung and heart transplant recipients : Studies on the impact of bronchoscopy in the diagnosis of respiratory infections and detection of viral infections in blood and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid

Infection is a major cause of mortality and morbidity after thoracic organ transplantation. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the infectious complications after lung and heart transplantation, with a special emphasis on the usefulness of bronchoscopy and the demonstration of cytomegalovirus (CMV), human herpes virus (HHV)-6, and HHV-7. We reviewed all the consecutive bronchoscopies performed on heart transplant recipients (HTRs) from May 1988 to December 2001 (n = 44) and lung transplant recipients (LTRs) from February 1994 to November 2002 (n = 472). To compare different assays in the detection of CMV, a total of 21 thoracic organ transplant recipients were prospectively monitored by CMV pp65-antigenemia, DNAemia (PCR), and mRNAemia (NASBA) tests. The antigenemia test was the reference assay for therapeutic intervention. In addition to CMV antigenemia, 22 LTRs were monitored for HHV-6 and HHV-7 antigenemia. The diagnostic yield of the clinically indicated bronchoscopies was 41 % in the HTRs and 61 % in the LTRs. The utility of the bronchoscopy was highest from one to six months after transplantation. In contrast, the findings from the surveillance bronchoscopies performed on LTRs led to a change in the previous treatment in only 6 % of the cases. Pneumocystis carinii and CMV were the most commonly detected pathogens. Furthermore, 15 (65 %) of the P. carinii infections in the LTRs were detected during chemoprophylaxis. None of the complications of the bronchoscopies were fatal. Antigenemia, DNAemia, and mRNAemia were present in 98 %, 72 %, and 43 % of the CMV infections, respectively. The optimal DNAemia cut-off levels (sensitivity/specificity) were 400 (75.9/92.7 %), 850 (91.3/91.3 %), and 1250 (100/91.5 %) copies/ml for the antigenemia of 2, 5, and 10 pp65-positive leukocytes/50 000 leukocytes, respectively. The sensitivities of the NASBA were 25.9, 43.5, and 56.3 % in detecting the same cut-off levels. CMV DNAemia was detected in 93 % and mRNAemia in 61 % of the CMV antigenemias requiring antiviral therapy. HHV-6, HHV-7, and CMV antigenemia was detected in 20 (91 %), 11 (50 %), and 12 (55 %) of the 22 LTRs (median 16, 31, and 165 days), respectively. HHV-6 appeared in 15 (79 %), HHV-7 in seven (37 %), and CMV in one (7 %) of these patients during ganciclovir or valganciclovir prophylaxis. One case of pneumonitis and another of encephalitis were associated with HHV-6. In conclusion, bronchoscopy is a safe and useful diagnostic tool in LTRs and HTRs with a suspected respiratory infection, but the role of surveillance bronchoscopy in LTRs remains controversial. The PCR assay acts comparably with the antigenemia test in guiding the pre-emptive therapy against CMV when threshold levels of over 5 pp65-antigen positive leukocytes are used. In contrast, the low sensitivity of NASBA limits its usefulness. HHV-6 and HHV-7 activation is common after lung transplantation despite ganciclovir or valganciclovir prophylaxis, but clinical manifestations are infrequently linked to them.

Biomarkers in acute respiratory failure

Acute respiratory failure (ARF) is the most common type of organ failure leading to the need for intensive care. It is often secondary to acute lung injury (ALI) and its more severe form, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). ARF, and especially ALI and ARDS, cause increased morbidity, and mortality rates remain high (up to 40%). These disorders are characterised by inflammatory reaction and tissue damage. In some cases, inflammation continues and leads to an overwhelming repair process with ongoing fibrosis, accompanied by organ dysfunction and eventually a loss of function. Measuring the magnitude of the inflammation, and the repair process, would theoretically offer information concerning outcome. Early identification of patients whose disease process is likely to proceed unfavourably, would help clinicians to optimise their treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiology of ARF, its treatment, and outcome in Finland, with special interest in biomarkers, and their value in the prediction of mortality. Altogether, 958 adult patients treated with ventilatory support were prospectively included in this study during an eight week period in 2007 in 25 intensive care units. Plasma aminoterminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) was assessed in 602 patients, and plasma cell-free DNA in 580 patients, to evaluate their prognostic value in ARF. Markers of collagen metabolism were studied in longitudinal serum samples in 68 patients in order to evaluate their evolution in ARF and the association to multiple organ dysfunction (MOD). Ventilatory support was used in 39% of all ICU patients. The estimated incidence of ARF was 149.5/100 000 per year. Median tidal volumes used were higher than recommended. Overall mortality at 90 days was 31%. Plasma NT-pro-BNP and cell-free DNA were highly increased in the majority of patients. Both markers were independent predictors of 90-day mortality, but their discriminative power was at most moderate when used separately. The mortality was highest in those patients, in whom both biomarkers were over their separate cut-off values. Thus, combined use of these biomarkers may increase their clinical value in the mortality prediction. The markers of collagen metabolism changed significantly over time in surviving patients. None of these markers did associate with MOD in these patients.

Social, economic, and health impact of the respiratory syncytial virus: a systematic search

Background: Bronchiolitis caused by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and its related complications are common in infants born prematurely, with severe congenital heart disease, or bronchopulmonary dysplasia, as well as in immunosuppressed infants. There is a rich literature on the different aspects of RSV infection with a focus, for the most part, on specific risk populations. However, there is a need for a systematic global analysis of the impact of RSV infection in terms of use of resources and health impact on both children and adults. With this aim, we performed a systematic search of scientific evidence on the social, economic, and health impact of RSV infection. Methods: A systematic search of the following databases was performed: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Spanish Medical Index, MEDES-MEDicina in Spanish, Cochrane Plus Library, and Google without time limits. We selected 421 abstracts based on the 6,598 articles identified. From these abstracts, 4 RSV experts selected the most relevant articles. They selected 65 articles. After reading the full articles, 23 of their references were also selected. Finally, one more article found through a literature information alert system was included. Results: The information collected was summarized and organized into the following topics: 1. Impact on health (infections and respiratory complications, mid-to long-term lung function decline, recurrent wheezing, asthma, other complications such as otitis and rhino-conjunctivitis, and mortality; 2. Impact on resources (visits to primary care and specialists offices, emergency room visits, hospital admissions, ICU admissions, diagnostic tests, and treatments); 3. Impact on costs (direct and indirect costs); 4. Impact on quality of life; and 5. Strategies to reduce the impact (interventions on social and hygienic factors and prophylactic treatments). Conclusions: We concluded that 1. The health impact of RSV infection is relevant and goes beyond the acute episode phase; 2. The health impact of RSV infection on children is much better documented than the impact on adults; 3. Further research is needed on mid-and long-term impact of RSV infection on the adult population, especially those at high-risk; 4. There is a need for interventions aimed at reducing the impact of RSV infection by targeting health education, information, and prophylaxis in high-risk populations.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.

Ascertainment of cause-specific mortality in COPD - operations of the TORCH clinical endpoint Committee

Background: TORCH (Towards a Revolution in COPD Health) is an international multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial of inhaled fluticasone propionate/salmeterol combination treatment and its monotherapy components for maintenance treatment of moderately to severely impaired patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. Cause-specific mortality and deaths related to COPD are additional outcome measures, but systematic methods for ascertainment of these outcomes have not previously been described. Methods: A Clinical Endpoint Committee (CEC) was tasked with categorising the cause of death and the relationship of deaths to COPD in a systematic, unbiased and independent manner. The key elements of the operation of the committee were the use of predefined principles of operation and definitions of cause of death and COPD-relatedness; the independent review of cases by all members with development of a consensus opinion; and a substantial infrastructure to collect medical information. Results: 911 deaths were reviewed and consensus was reached in all. Cause-specific mortality was: cardiovascular 27%, respiratory 35%, cancer 21%, other 10% and unknown 8%. 40% of deaths were definitely or probably related to COPD. Adjudications were identical in 83% of blindly re-adjudicated cases ( = 0.80). COPD-relatedness was reproduced 84% of the time ( = 0.73). The CEC adjudication was equivalent to the primary cause of death recorded by the site investigator in 52% of cases. Conclusion: A CEC can provide standardised, reliable and informative adjudication of COPD mortality that provides information which frequently differs from data collected from assessment by site investigators.