开发早期油藏动态地质模型与油藏工程优化研究——以埕岛油田馆上段油藏为例

In order to developing reservoir of Upper of Ng at high-speed and high-efficient in Chengdao oilfield which is located in the bally shallow sea, the paper builds up a series of theory and means predicting and descripting reservoir in earlier period of oilfield development. There are some conclusions as follows. 1. It is the first time to form a series of technique of fine geological modeling of the channel-sandy reservoir by means of mainly seismic methods. These technique include the logging restriction seismic inversion, the whole three dimension seismic interpretation, seismic properties analysis and so on which are used to the 3-dimension distributing prediction of sandy body, structure and properties of the channel reservoir by a lot of the seismic information and a small quantity of the drilling and the logging information in the earlier stage of the oil-field development. It is the first time that these methods applied to production and the high-speed development of the shallow sea oilfield. The prediction sandy body was modified by the data of new drilling, the new reservoir prediction thinking of traced inversion is built. The applied effect of the technique was very well, according to approximately 200 wells belonging to 30 well groups in Chengdao oilfield, the drilling succeeded rate of the predicting sandy body reached 100%, the error total thickness only was 8%. 2. The author advanced the thinking and methods of the forecasting residual-oil prediction at the earlier stage of production. Based on well data and seismic data, correlation of sediment units was correlated by cycle-correlation and classification control methods, and the normalization and finely interpretation of the well logging and sedimentation micro-facies were acquired. On the region of poor well, using the logging restriction inversion technique and regarding finished drilling production well as the new restriction condition, the sand body distributing and its property were predicted again and derived 3-dimension pool geologic model including structure, reservoir, fluid, reservoir engineering parameter and producing dynamic etc. According to the reservoir geologic model, the reservoir engineering design was optimized, the tracking simulation of the reservoir numerical simulation was done by means of the dynamic data (pressure, yield and water content) of development well, the production rule and oil-water distributing rule was traced, the distributing of the remaining oil was predicted and controlled. The dynamic reservoir modeling method in metaphase of development was taken out. Based on the new drilling data, the static reservoir geologic model was momentarily modified, the research of the flow units was brought up including identifying flow units, evaluating flow units capability and establishing the fine flow units model; according to the dynamic data of production and well testing data, the dynamic tracing reservoir description was realized through the constant modification of the reservoir geologic model restricted these dynamic data by the theory of well testing and the reservoir numerical simulation. It was built the dynamic tracing reservoir model, which was used to track survey of the remaining oil on earlier period. The reservoir engineering tracking analysis technique on shallow sea oilfield was founded. After renewing the structure history since tertiary in Chengdao area by the balance section technique and estimating the activity character of the Chengbei fault by the sealing fault analysis technique, the meandering stream sediment pattern of the Upper of Ng was founded in which the meandering border was the uppermost reservoir unit. Based on the specialty of the lower rock component maturity and the structure maturity, the author founded 3 kinds of pore structure pattern in the Guanshang member of Chengdao oil-field in which the storing space mainly was primary (genetic) inter-granular pore, little was secondary solution pore and the inter-crystal pore tiny pore, and the type of throat mainly distributed as the slice shape and the contract neck shape. The positive rhythmic was briefly type included the simple positive rhythm, the complex positive rhythm and the compound rhythm. Interbed mainly is mudstone widely, the physical properties and the calcite interbed distribute localized. 5. The author synthetically analyzed the influence action of the micro-heterogeneity, the macro-heterogeneity and the structure heterogeneity to the oilfield water flood development. The efficiency of water flood is well in tiny structure of convex type or even type at top and bottom in which the water breakthrough of oil well is soon at the high part of structure when inject at the low part of structure, and the efficiency of water flood is poor in tiny structure of concave type at top and bottom. The remaining oil was controlled by sedimentary facies; the water flooding efficiency is well in the border or channel bar and is bad in the floodplain or the levee. The separation and inter layer have a little influence to the non-obvious positive rhythm reservoir, in which the remaining oil commonly locate within the 1-3 meter of the lower part of the separation and inter layer with lower water flooding efficiency.

陆相砂泥岩层序的高精度检测方法研究及应用

Ordos Basin is a typical cratonic petroliferous basin with 40 oil-gas bearing bed sets. It is featured as stable multicycle sedimentation, gentle formation, and less structures. The reservoir beds in Upper Paleozoic and Mesozoicare are mainly low density, low permeability, strong lateral change, and strong vertical heterogeneous. The well-known Loess Plateau in the southern area and Maowusu Desert, Kubuqi Desert and Ordos Grasslands in the northern area cover the basin, so seismic data acquisition in this area is very difficult and the data often takes on inadequate precision, strong interference, low signal-noise ratio, and low resolution. Because of the complicated condition of the surface and the underground, it is very difficult to distinguish the thin beds and study the land facies high-resolution lithologic sequence stratigraphy according to routine seismic profile. Therefore, a method, which have clearly physical significance, based on advanced mathematical physics theory and algorithmic and can improve the precision of the detection on the thin sand-peat interbed configurations of land facies, is in demand to put forward.Generalized S Transform (GST) processing method provides a new method of phase space analysis for seismic data. Compared with wavelet transform, both of them have very good localization characteristics; however, directly related to the Fourier spectra, GST has clearer physical significance, moreover, GST adopts a technology to best approach seismic wavelets and transforms the seismic data into time-scale domain, and breaks through the limit of the fixed wavelet in S transform, so GST has extensive adaptability. Based on tracing the development of the ideas and theories from wavelet transform, S transform to GST, we studied how to improve the precision of the detection on the thin stratum by GST.Noise has strong influence on sequence detecting in GST, especially in the low signal-noise ratio data. We studied the distribution rule of colored noise in GST domain, and proposed a technology to distinguish the signal and noise in GST domain. We discussed two types of noises: white noise and red noise, in which noise satisfy statistical autoregression model. For these two model, the noise-signal detection technology based on GST all get good result. It proved that the GST domain noise-signal detection technology could be used to real seismic data, and could effectively avoid noise influence on seismic sequence detecting.On the seismic profile after GST processing, high amplitude energy intensive zone, schollen, strip and lentoid dead zone and disarray zone maybe represent specifically geologic meanings according to given geologic background. Using seismic sequence detection profile and combining other seismic interpretation technologies, we can elaborate depict the shape of palaeo-geomorphology, effectively estimate sand stretch, distinguish sedimentary facies, determine target area, and directly guide oil-gas exploration.In the lateral reservoir prediction in XF oilfield of Ordos Basin, it played very important role in the estimation of sand stretch that the study of palaeo-geomorphology of Triassic System and the partition of inner sequence of the stratum group. According to the high-resolution seismic profile after GST processing, we pointed out that the C8 Member of Yanchang Formation in DZ area and C8 Member in BM area are the same deposit. It provided the foundation for getting 430 million tons predicting reserves and unite building 3 million tons off-take potential.In tackling key problem study for SLG gas-field, according to the high-resolution seismic sequence profile, we determined that the deposit direction of H8 member is approximately N-S or NNE-SS W. Using the seismic sequence profile, combining with layer-level profile, we can interpret the shape of entrenched stream. The sunken lenticle indicates the high-energy stream channel, which has stronger hydropower. By this way we drew out three high-energy stream channels' outline, and determined the target areas for exploitation. Finding high-energy braided river by high-resolution sequence processing is the key technology in SLG area.In ZZ area, we studied the distribution of the main reservoir bed-S23, which is shallow delta thin sand bed, by GST processing. From the seismic sequence profile, we discovered that the schollen thick sand beds are only local distributed, and most of them are distributary channel sand and distributary bar deposit. Then we determined that the S23 sand deposit direction is NW-SE in west, N-S in central and NE-SW in east. The high detecting seismic sequence interpretation profiles have been tested by 14 wells, 2 wells mismatch and the coincidence rate is 85.7%. Based on the profiles we suggested 3 predicted wells, one well (Yu54) completed and the other two is still drilling. The completed on Is coincident with the forecastThe paper testified that GST is a effective technology to get high- resolution seismic sequence profile, compartmentalize deposit microfacies, confirm strike direction of sandstone and make sure of the distribution range of oil-gas bearing sandstone, and is the gordian technique for the exploration of lithologic gas-oil pool in complicated areas.

Study on Water Resources Regulation and Reservoir Operating Prediction for Suppression of Salt Water Intrusion in the Pearl River Estuary

Salt water intrusion occurred frequently during dry season in Modaomen waterway of the Pearl River Estuary. With the development of region's economy and urbanization, the salt tides affect the region's water supply more and more seriously in recent years. Regulation and allocation of freshwater resources of the upper rivers of the estuary to suppress the salt tides is becoming important measures for ensuring the water supply security of the region in dry season. The observation data analysis showed that the flow value at the Wuzhou hydrometric station on the upper Xijiang river had a good correlation with the salinity in Modaomen estuary. Thus the flow rate of Wuzhou has been used as a control variable for suppression of salt tides in Modaomen estuary. However, the runoff at Wuzhou mainly comes from the discharge of Longtan reservoir on the upper reaches of Xijiang river and the runoff in the interval open valley between Longtan and Wuzhou sections. As the long distance and many tributaries as well as the large non-controlled watershed between this two sections, the reservoir water scheduling has a need for reasonable considering of interaction between the reservoir regulating discharge and the runoff process of the interval open watershed while the deployment of suppression flow at Wuzhou requires longer lasting time and high precision for the salt tide cycles. For this purpose, this study established a runoff model for Longtan - Wuzhou interval drainage area and by model calculations and observation data analysis, helped to understand the response patterns of the flow rate at Wuzhou to the water discharge of Longtan under the interval water basin runoff participating conditions. On this basis, further discussions were taken on prediction methods of Longtan reservoir discharge scheduling scheme for saline intrusion suppression and provided scientific and typical implementation programs for effective suppression flow process at the Wuzhou section.

Imaging fluid solid interactions in hydrocarbon reservoir rocks

The environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) has been used to image liquid hydrocarbons in sandstones and oil shales. Additionally, the fluid sensitivity of selected clay minerals in hydrocarbon reservoirs was assessed via three case studies: HCl acid sensitivity of authigenic chlorite in sandstone reservoirs, freshwater sensitivity of authigenic illite/smectite in sandstone reservoirs, and bleach sensitivity of a volcanic reservoir containing abundant secondary chlorite/corrensite. The results showed the suitability of using ESEM for imaging liquid hydrocarbon films in hydrocarbon reservoirs and the importance of simulating in situ fluid-rock interactions for hydrocarbon production programmes. In each case, results of the ESEM studies greatly enhanced prediction of reservoir/borehole reactions and, in some cases, contradicted conventional wisdom regarding the outcome of potential engineering solutions. (C) 1993 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Hydroclimatic influence of large-scale circulation on the variability of reservoir inflow

In this study, the nature of basin-scale hydroclimatic association for Indian subcontinent is investigated. It is found that, the large-scale circulation information from Indian Ocean is also equally important in addition to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), owing to the geographical location of Indian subcontinent. The hydroclimatic association of the variation of monsoon inflow into the Hirakud reservoir in India is investigated using ENSO and EQUatorial INdian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO, the atmospheric part of Indian Ocean Dipole mode) as the large-scale circulation information from tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean regions respectively. Individual associations of ENSO & EQUINOO indices with inflow into Hirakud reservoir are also assessed and found to be weak. However, the association of inflows into Hirakud reservoir with the composite index (CI) of ENSO and EQUINOO is quite strong. Thus, the large-scale circulation information from Indian Ocean is also important apart form the ENSO. The potential of the combined information of ENSO and EQUINOO for predicting the inflows during monsoon is also investigated with promising results. The results of this study will be helpful to water resources managers due to fact that the nature of monsoon inflow is becoming available as an early prediction.

Forecasting Daily Chlorophyll a Concentration during the Spring Phytoplankton Bloom Period in Xiangxi Bay of the Three-Gorges Reservoir by Means of a Recurrent Artificial Neural Network

A recurrent artificial neural network was used for 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting of daily spring phytoplankton bloom dynamics in Xiangxi Bay of Three-Gorges Reservoir with meteorological, hydrological, and limnological parameters as input variables. Daily data from the depth of 0.5 m was used to train the model, and data from the depth of 2.0 m was used to validate the calibrated model. The trained model achieved reasonable accuracy in predicting the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a both in 0-and 7-days-ahead forecasting. In 0-day-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of observed and predicted data were 0.85 for training and 0.89 for validating. In 7-days-ahead forecasting, the R-2 values of training and validating were 0.68 and 0.66, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that most ecological relationships between chlorophyll a and input environmental variables in 0-and 7-days-ahead models were reasonable. In the 0-day model, Secchi depth, water temperature, and dissolved silicate were the most important factors influencing the daily dynamics of chlorophyll a. And in 7-days-ahead predicting model, chlorophyll a was sensitive to most environmental variables except water level, DO, and NH3N.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Evaluation of the robustness of predictive yield models based on catchment characteristics using GIS for reservoir fisheries in Sri Lanka

Land-use patterns in the catchment areas of Sri Lankan reservoirs, which were quantified using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), were used to develop quantitative models for yield prediction. The validity of these models was evaluated through the application to five reservoirs that were not used in the development of the models, and by comparing with the actual fish yield data of these reservoirs collected by an independent body. The robustness of the predictive models developed was tested by principal component analysis (PCA) on limnological characteristics, land-use patterns of the catchments and fish yields. The predicted fish yields in five Sri Lankan reservoirs, using the empirical models based on the ratios of forest cover and/or shrub cover to reservoir capacity or reservoir area were in close agreement with the observed fish yields. The scores of PCA ordination of productivity-related limnological parameters and those of land-use patterns were linearly related to fish yields. The relationship between the PCA scores of limnological characteristics and land-use types had the appropriate algebraic form, which substantiates the influence of the limnological factors and land-use types on reservoir fish yields. It is suggested that the relatively high predictive power of the models developed on the basis of GIS methodologies can be used for more accurate assessment of reservoir fisheries. The study supports the importance and the need for an integrated management strategy for the whole watershed to enhance fish yields.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for large-scale systems. Nonetheless, a critical obstacle, which needs to be overcome in MPC, is the large computational burden when a large-scale system is considered or a long prediction horizon is involved. In order to solve this problem, we use an adaptive prediction accuracy (APA) approach that can reduce the computational burden almost by half. The proposed MPC scheme with this scheme is tested on the northern Dutch water system, which comprises Lake IJssel, Lake Marker, the River IJssel and the North Sea Canal. The simulation results show that by using the MPC-APA scheme, the computational time can be reduced to a large extent and a flood protection problem over longer prediction horizons can be well solved.

Evaluating the usefulness of soil moisture (forecasts) in streamflow prediction for central Texas

The past decade has brought significant advancements in seasonal climate forecasting. However, water resources decision support and management continues to be based almost entirely on historical observations and does not take advantage of climate forecasts. This study builds on previous work that conditioned streamflow ensemble forecasts on observable climate indicators, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for use in a decision support model for the Highland Lakes multi-reservoir system in central Texas operated by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA). In the current study, seasonal soil moisture is explored as a climate indicator and predictor of annual streamflow for the LCRA region. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation of fractional soil moisture with streamflow using the 1950-2000 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Retrospective Land Surface Data Set over the LCRA region. Correlations were determined by examining different annual and seasonal combinations of VIC modeled fractional soil moisture and observed streamflow. The applicability of the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set as a data source for this study is tested along with establishing and analyzing patterns of climatology for the watershed study area using the selected data source (VIC model) and historical data. Correlation results showed potential for the use of soil moisture as a predictor of streamflow over the LCRA region. This was evident by the good correlations found between seasonal soil moisture and seasonal streamflow during coincident seasons as well as between seasonal and annual soil moisture with annual streamflow during coincident years. With the findings of good correlation between seasonal soil moisture from the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set with observed annual streamflow presented in this study, future research would evaluate the application of NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of soil moisture in predicting annual streamflow for use in the decision support model for the LCRA.

Prediction of water–rock interaction and porosity evolution in a granitoid-hosted enhanced geothermal system, using constraints from the 5 km Basel-1 well

Numerical simulations based on plans for a deep geothermal system in Basel, Switzerland are used here to understand chemical processes that occur in an initially dry granitoid reservoir during hydraulic stimulation and long-term water circulation to extract heat. An important question regarding the sustainability of such enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), is whether water–rock reactions will eventually lead to clogging of flow paths in the reservoir and thereby reduce or even completely block fluid throughput. A reactive transport model allows the main chemical reactions to be predicted and the resulting evolution of porosity to be tracked over the expected 30-year operational lifetime of the system. The simulations show that injection of surface water to stimulate fracture permeability in the monzogranite reservoir at 190 °C and 5000 m depth induces redox reactions between the oxidised surface water and the reduced wall rock. Although new calcite, chlorite, hematite and other minerals precipitate near the injection well, their volumes are low and more than compensated by those of the dissolving wall-rock minerals. Thus, during stimulation, reduction of injectivity by mineral precipitation is unlikely. During the simulated long-term operation of the system, the main mineral reactions are the hydration and albitization of plagioclase, the alteration of hornblende to an assemblage of smectites and chlorites and of primary K-feldspar to muscovite and microcline. Within a closed-system doublet, the composition of the circulated fluid changes only slightly during its repeated passage through the reservoir, as the wall rock essentially undergoes isochemical recrystallization. Even after 30 years of circulation, the calculations show that porosity is reduced by only ∼0.2%, well below the expected fracture porosity induced by stimulation. This result suggests that permeability reduction owing to water–rock interaction is unlikely to jeopardize the long-term operation of deep, granitoid-hosted EGS systems. A peculiarity at Basel is the presence of anhydrite as fracture coatings at ∼5000 m depth. Simulated exposure of the circulating fluid to anhydrite induces a stronger redox disequilibrium in the reservoir, driving dissolution of ferrous minerals and precipitation of ferric smectites, hematite and pyrite. However, even in this scenario the porosity reduction is at most 0.5%, a value which is unproblematic for sustainable fluid circulation through the reservoir.

Numerical solution of flood prediction and river regulation problems; report.

Reports 2 and 3 by E. Isaacson, J. J. Stoker, and A. Troesch.