Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties.

The brachyspira hyodysenteriae ftnA gene : DNA vaccination and real-time PCR quantification of bacteria in a mouse model of disease

The nucleotide sequence of the Brachyspira hyodysenteriae ftnA gene, encoding a putative ferritin protein (FtnA), was determined. Analysis of the sequence predicted that this gene encoded a protein of 180 amino acids. RT-PCR and Western blot showed that the ftnA gene was expressed in B. hyodysenteriae, and evidence suggests that FtnA stores iron rather than haem. ftnA was delivered as DNA and recombinant protein vaccines in a mouse model of B. hyodysenteriae infection. Vaccine efficacy was monitored by caecal pathology and quantification of B. hyodysenteriae numbers in the caeca of infected mice by real-time PCR.

A decision-making model to choose business intelligence platforms for organizations

In recent time, technology applications in different fields, especially Business Intelligence (BI) have been developed rapidly and considered to be one of the most significant uses of information technology with special position reserved. The application of BI systems provides organizations with a sense of superiority in the competitive environment. Despite many advantages, the companies applying such systems may also encounter problems in decision-making process because of the highly diversified interactions within the systems. Hence, the choice of a suitable BI platform is important to take the great advantage of using information technology in all organizational fields. The current research aims at addressing the problems existed in the organizational decision-making process, proposing and implementing a suitable BI platform using Iranian companies as case study. The paper attempts to present a solitary model based on studying different methods in BI platform choice and applying the chosen BI platform for different decisionmaking processes. The results from evaluating the effectiveness of subsequently implementing the model for Iranian Industrial companies are discussed.

Classifying human actions using an incomplete real-time pose skeleton

Currently, most human action recognition systems are trained with feature sets that have no missing data. Unfortunately, the use of human pose estimation models to provide more descriptive features also entails an increased sensitivity to occlusions, meaning that incomplete feature information will be unavoidable for realistic scenarios. To address this, our approach is to shift the responsibility for dealing with occluded pose data away from the pose estimator and onto the action classifier. This allows the use of a simple, real-time pose estimation (stick-figure) that does not estimate the positions of limbs it cannot find quickly. The system tracks people via background subtraction and extracts the (possibly incomplete) pose skeleton from their silhouette. Hidden Markov Models modified to handle missing data are then used to successfully classify several human actions using the incomplete pose features.

Real-time crowd density estimation using images

This paper presents a technique for real-time crowd density estimation based on textures of crowd images. In this technique, the current image from a sequence of input images is classified into a crowd density class. Then, the classification is corrected by a low-pass filter based on the crowd density classification of the last n images of the input sequence. The technique obtained 73.89% of correct classification in a real-time application on a sequence of 9892 crowd images. Distributed processing was used in order to obtain real-time performance. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005.

BDI agents for Real Time Strategy games

While the use of distributed intelligence has been incrementally spreading in the design of a great number of intelligent systems, the field of Artificial Intelligence in Real Time Strategy games has remained mostly a centralized environment. Despite turn-based games have attained AIs of world-class level, the fast paced nature of RTS games has proven to be a significant obstacle to the quality of its AIs. Chapter 1 introduces RTS games describing their characteristics, mechanics and elements. Chapter 2 introduces Multi-Agent Systems and the use of the Beliefs-Desires-Intentions abstraction, analysing the possibilities given by self-computing properties. In Chapter 3 the current state of AI development in RTS games is analyzed highlighting the struggles of the gaming industry to produce valuable. The focus on improving multiplayer experience has impacted gravely on the quality of the AIs thus leaving them with serious flaws that impair their ability to challenge and entertain players. Chapter 4 explores different aspects of AI development for RTS, evaluating the potential strengths and weaknesses of an agent-based approach and analysing which aspects can benefit the most against centralized AIs. Chapter 5 describes a generic agent-based framework for RTS games where every game entity becomes an agent, each of which having its own knowledge and set of goals. Different aspects of the game, like economy, exploration and warfare are also analysed, and some agent-based solutions are outlined. The possible exploitation of self-computing properties to efficiently organize the agents activity is then inspected. Chapter 6 presents the design and implementation of an AI for an existing Open Source game in beta development stage: 0 a.d., an historical RTS game on ancient warfare which features a modern graphical engine and evolved mechanics. The entities in the conceptual framework are implemented in a new agent-based platform seamlessly nested inside the existing game engine, called ABot, widely described in Chapters 7, 8 and 9. Chapter 10 and 11 include the design and realization of a new agent based language useful for defining behavioural modules for the agents in ABot, paving the way for a wider spectrum of contributors. Chapter 12 concludes the work analysing the outcome of tests meant to evaluate strategies, realism and pure performance, finally drawing conclusions and future works in Chapter 13.

Real-time adaptive models for the personalized prediction of glycemic profile in type 1 diabetes patients

Prediction of glycemic profile is an important task for both early recognition of hypoglycemia and enhancement of the control algorithms for optimization of insulin infusion rate. Adaptive models for glucose prediction and recognition of hypoglycemia based on statistical and artificial intelligence techniques are presented.

Integrating structured and unstructured data in a business-intelligence-system

The recent liberalization of the German energy market has forced the energy industry to develop and install new information systems to support agents on the energy trading floors in their analytical tasks. Besides classical approaches of building a data warehouse giving insight into the time series to understand market and pricing mechanisms, it is crucial to provide a variety of external data from the web. Weather information as well as political news or market rumors are relevant to give the appropriate interpretation to the variables of a volatile energy market. Starting from a multidimensional data model and a collection of buy and sell transactions a data warehouse is built that gives analytical support to the agents. Following the idea of web farming we harvest the web, match the external information sources after a filtering and evaluation process to the data warehouse objects, and present this qualified information on a user interface where market values are correlated with those external sources over the time axis.

A Propose-and-revise System for Real-time Traffic Management

The aim of this paper is to describe an intelligent system for the problem of real time road traffic control. The purpose of the system is to help traffic engineers in the selection of the state of traffic control devices on real time, using data recorded by traffic detectors on motorways. The system follows an advanced knowledge-based approach that implements an abstract generic problem solving method, called propose-and-revise, which was proposed in Artificial Intelligence, within the knowledge engineering field, as a standard cognitive structure oriented to solve configuration design problems. The paper presents the knowledge model of such a system together with the strategy of inference and describes how it was applied for the case of the M-40 urban ring for the city of Madrid.

Real-time incidents detection in the highways of the future

Due to ever increasing transportation of people and goods, automatic traffic surveillance is becoming a key issue for both providing safety to road users and improving traffic control in an efficient way. In this paper, we propose a new system that, exploiting the capabilities that both computer vision and machine learning offer, is able to detect and track different types of real incidents on a highway. Specifically, it is able to accurately detect not only stopped vehicles, but also drivers and passengers leaving the stopped vehicle, and other pedestrians present in the roadway. Additionally, a theoretical approach for detecting vehicles which may leave the road in an unexpected way is also presented. The system works in real-time and it has been optimized for working outdoor, being thus appropriate for its deployment in a real-world environment like a highway. First experimental results on a dataset created with videos provided by two Spanish highway operators demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system and its robustness against noise and low-quality videos.

Applying model-driven engineering to the development of Rich Internet Applications for Business Intelligence

Business Intelligence (BI) applications have been gradually ported to the Web in search of a global platform for the consumption and publication of data and services. On the Internet, apart from techniques for data/knowledge management, BI Web applications need interfaces with a high level of interoperability (similar to the traditional desktop interfaces) for the visualisation of data/knowledge. In some cases, this has been provided by Rich Internet Applications (RIA). The development of these BI RIAs is a process traditionally performed manually and, given the complexity of the final application, it is a process which might be prone to errors. The application of model-driven engineering techniques can reduce the cost of development and maintenance (in terms of time and resources) of these applications, as they demonstrated by other types of Web applications. In the light of these issues, the paper introduces the Sm4RIA-B methodology, i.e., a model-driven methodology for the development of RIA as BI Web applications. In order to overcome the limitations of RIA regarding knowledge management from the Web, this paper also presents a new RIA platform for BI, called RI@BI, which extends the functionalities of traditional RIAs by means of Semantic Web technologies and B2B techniques. Finally, we evaluate the whole approach on a case study—the development of a social network site for an enterprise project manager.

Towards a real-time 3D object recognition pipeline on mobile GPGPU computing platforms using low-cost RGB-D sensors

In this project, we propose the implementation of a 3D object recognition system which will be optimized to operate under demanding time constraints. The system must be robust so that objects can be recognized properly in poor light conditions and cluttered scenes with significant levels of occlusion. An important requirement must be met: the system must exhibit a reasonable performance running on a low power consumption mobile GPU computing platform (NVIDIA Jetson TK1) so that it can be integrated in mobile robotics systems, ambient intelligence or ambient assisted living applications. The acquisition system is based on the use of color and depth (RGB-D) data streams provided by low-cost 3D sensors like Microsoft Kinect or PrimeSense Carmine. The range of algorithms and applications to be implemented and integrated will be quite broad, ranging from the acquisition, outlier removal or filtering of the input data and the segmentation or characterization of regions of interest in the scene to the very object recognition and pose estimation. Furthermore, in order to validate the proposed system, we will create a 3D object dataset. It will be composed by a set of 3D models, reconstructed from common household objects, as well as a handful of test scenes in which those objects appear. The scenes will be characterized by different levels of occlusion, diverse distances from the elements to the sensor and variations on the pose of the target objects. The creation of this dataset implies the additional development of 3D data acquisition and 3D object reconstruction applications. The resulting system has many possible applications, ranging from mobile robot navigation and semantic scene labeling to human-computer interaction (HCI) systems based on visual information.

Empowering global software development with business intelligence

Context: Global Software Development (GSD) allows companies to take advantage of talent spread across the world. Most research has been focused on the development aspect. However, little if any attention has been paid to the management of GSD projects. Studies report a lack of adequate support for management’s decisions made during software development, further accentuated in GSD since information is scattered throughout multiple factories, stored in different formats and standards. Objective: This paper aims to improve GSD management by proposing a systematic method for adapting Business Intelligence techniques to software development environments. This would enhance the visibility of the development process and enable software managers to make informed decisions regarding how to proceed with GSD projects. Method: A combination of formal goal-modeling frameworks and data modeling techniques is used to elicitate the most relevant aspects to be measured by managers in GSD. The process is described in detail and applied to a real case study throughout the paper. A discussion regarding the generalisability of the method is presented afterwards. Results: The application of the approach generates an adapted BI framework tailored to software development according to the requirements posed by GSD managers. The resulting framework is capable of presenting previously inaccessible data through common and specific views and enabling data navigation according to the organization of software factories and projects in GSD. Conclusions: We can conclude that the proposed systematic approach allows us to successfully adapt Business Intelligence techniques to enhance GSD management beyond the information provided by traditional tools. The resulting framework is able to integrate and present the information in a single place, thereby enabling easy comparisons across multiple projects and factories and providing support for informed decisions in GSD management.

Design and development of agent-based procurement system to enhance business intelligence

The purpose of this research is to propose a procurement system across other disciplines and retrieved information with relevant parties so as to have a better co-ordination between supply and demand sides. This paper demonstrates how to analyze the data with an agent-based procurement system (APS) to re-engineer and improve the existing procurement process. The intelligence agents take the responsibility of searching the potential suppliers, negotiation with the short-listed suppliers and evaluating the performance of suppliers based on the selection criteria with mathematical model. Manufacturing firms and trading companies spend more than half of their sales dollar in the purchase of raw material and components. Efficient data collection with high accuracy is one of the key success factors to generate quality procurement which is to purchasing right material at right quality from right suppliers. In general, the enterprises spend a significant amount of resources on data collection and storage, but too little on facilitating data analysis and sharing. To validate the feasibility of the approach, a case study on a manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) has been conducted. APS supports the data and information analyzing technique to facilitate the decision making such that the agent can enhance the negotiation and suppler evaluation efficiency by saving time and cost.