Scaling laws of ambush predator 'waiting' behaviour are tuned to a common ecology

The decisions animals make about how long to wait between activities can determine the success of diverse behaviours such as foraging, group formation or risk avoidance. Remarkably, for diverse animal species, including humans, spontaneous patterns of waiting times show random ‘burstiness’ that appears scale-invariant across a broad set of scales. However, a general theory linking this phenomenon across the animal kingdom currently lacks an ecological basis. Here, we demonstrate from tracking the activities of 15 sympatric predator species (cephalopods, sharks, skates and teleosts) under natural and controlled conditions that bursty waiting times are an intrinsic spontaneous behaviour well approximated by heavy-tailed (power-law) models over data ranges up to four orders of magnitude. Scaling exponents quantifying ratios of frequent short to rare very long waits are species-specific, being determined by traits such as foraging mode (active versus ambush predation), body size and prey preference. A stochastic–deterministic decision model reproduced the empirical waiting time scaling and species-specific exponents, indicating that apparently complex scaling can emerge from simple decisions. Results indicate temporal power-law scaling is a behavioural ‘rule of thumb’ that is tuned to species’ ecological traits, implying a common pattern may have naturally evolved that optimizes move–wait decisions in less predictable natural environments.

Rheumatologists' judgements about the efficacy of anti-TNF therapy in two neighbouring regions

Objectives: The requirement in Northern Ireland to prescribe biologic agents according to NICE/BSR guidelines and within a fixed budget has created a waiting list for treatment that has no parallel in the Republic of Ireland. The study investigated the bearing this situation may have on had on the consultants’ judgements in the respective areas.

Methods: 78 case vignettes created from the data on real patients with RA treated with biologics in the north and south of Ireland were appraised by 9 southern and 8 northern consultants who judged the clinical benefit and significance of the patients’ condition after a trial of therapy. Quantitative (Clinical Judgement Analysis) and Qualitative (Focus groups) techniques were used.

Results: Northern consultants perceived a slightly greater degree of clinical benefit after a trial of therapy than southern consultants. Judgment models of northern and southern consultants were broadly comparable. The latter tended to be more uniform in their judgments than the southern group. Focus group discussions with consultants largely validated the findings of the quantitative analysis but revealed how clinical judgment analysis might be misled by gaming strategies.

Conclusions: Despite the absence of overt rationing in the south of Ireland, as far as the judgment of therapeutic benefit from biologics was concerned, the clinical judgment policies of practitioners were very similar to those in the north. The adoption of NICE/BSR guidelines in the north may have improved the uniformity of clinical practice in Northern Ireland.

Optimal Credit Rationing in Not-For-Profit Financial Institutions

We examine the dynamic optimization problem for not-for-profit financial institutions (NFPs) that maximize consumer surplus, not profits. We characterize the optimal dynamic policy and find that it involves credit rationing. Interest rates set by mature NFPs will typically be more favorable to customers than market rates, as any surplus is distributed in the form of interest rate subsidies, with credit rationing being required to prevent these subsidies from distorting loan volumes from their optimal levels. Rationing overcomes a fundamental problem in NFPs; it allows them to distribute the surplus without distorting the volume of activity from the efficient level.

A Bayesian Network Hybrid Model for Representing Accident and Emergency Waiting Times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an Accident and Emergency (A&E) Department in a UK based National Health Service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (Emergency Rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

A Bayesian network hybrid model for representing accident and emergency waiting times

The paper introduces a new modeling approach that represents the waiting times in an accident and emergency (A&E) department in a UK based national health service (NHS) hospital. The technique uses Bayesian networks to capture the heterogeneity of arriving patients by representing how patient covariates interact to influence their waiting times in the department. Such waiting times have been reviewed by the NHS as a means of investigating the efficiency of A&E departments (emergency rooms) and how they operate. As a result activity targets are now established based on the patient total waiting times with much emphasis on trolley waits.

War, food rationing, and socioeconomic inequality in Germany during the First World War

Germany experienced a devastating period during the First World War due to severely restricted import possibilities and a general shortage of foodstuffs. This study uses the heights of some 4,000 individuals who served during the Second World War to quantify biological living standards from the 1900s to the 1920s, and focuses primarily on socioeconomic inequality during this period. The results suggest that generally the upper social strata, measured by fathers' occupation, exhibited the tallest average height, followed by the middle and lower classes. These socioeconomic differences became more pronounced during the First World War when the rationing system provided a limited food supply. Wealthier individuals were able to purchase additional foodstuffs on black markets. Therefore, children from upper-class families experienced only a small decline in average height compared to their counterparts from the middle and lower social strata.

Long-term health-related quality of life of prostate cancer survivors varies by primary treatment. Results from the PiCTure (Prostate Cancer Treatment, your experience) study

PURPOSE: Men are living longer with prostate cancer. In a two-country study, we investigated the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of prostate cancer survivors up to 18 years post-diagnosis.

METHODS: Postal questionnaires were administered in 2012 to 6559 prostate cancer (ICD10 C61) survivors 2-18 years post-diagnosis, identified through population-based cancer registries in Ireland. HRQoL was measured using QLQ-C30 and QLQ-PR25. HRQoL, functional and symptom scores were compared by primary treatment(s) using multiple linear regression.

RESULTS: Fifty-four percent responded (n = 3348). After controlling for socio-demographic and clinical factors, global HRQoL varied significantly by primary treatment (p < 0.001); compared to radical prostatectomy (RP), survivors who received androgen deprivation therapy alone (ADT; p < 0.001) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) without concurrent ADT (p = 0.001) had significantly lower global HRQoL. The global HRQoL of men who received brachytherapy (p = 0.157), EBRT with concurrent ADT (p = 0.940) or active surveillance/watchful waiting (p = 0.388) was not significantly different from men treated with RP. There were statistically and clinically significant differences in general (fatigue, pain, dyspnoea, appetite loss, constipation, diarrhoea, financial difficulties) and disease-specific symptoms (sexual, urinary, bowel, ADT) by primary treatment. Fatigue and insomnia scores were high for survivors in all treatment groups.

CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer survivors' long-term HRQoL varied with primary treatment.

IMPLICATIONS OF CANCER SURVIVORS: Population-based information regarding statistically and clinically significant treatment effects on long-term global HRQoL, symptom burden and functionality should be provided during treatment decision-making. Screening for symptoms and utilising interventions during long-term follow-up may improve survivors' HRQoL.

Why are we Waiting? Research, Policy and Practice in Recruiting and Supporting Same Gender Couples in Child Adoption

The adoption process is renowned for its difficulties, however gay and lesbian couples face unique, additional challenges when choosing parenthood through adoption. The Adoption and Children’s Act (2002), Equality Act (2006) and the Sexual Orientation Regulations act (2007) are some of the recent policy changes aimed at ‘smoothing out’ the adoption process for same-gender couples (Cosis-Brown & Kershaw, 2008). Resultantly, there appear to be more cases of gay adoption than ever before (Equality Britain, 2005), however, anecdotal evidence suggests that across the UK the practice of recruiting and supporting gay and lesbian adopters is inconsistent. Whilst some local authorities encourage and emphasise the importance of stability and high quality care for vulnerable looked after children regardless of parental sexuality (Mallon, 2007); yet case studies of gay and lesbian couples seeking adoption demonstrate the unique challenges they encounter in the adoption process because of religious views (Hicks, 2005) or the attitudes towards same gender parenting of adoption panels and social workers within an unspoken hierarchy (Ahmed, 2008; Dennis, 2006). Government’s drive towards adoption (Unwin and Misca, 2013) of children in care as a favoured alternative should lead to recognition of same-gender couples as an under-utilised resource of potential adopters to be used in the best interest of the children who are looked after. The poster will present the results of research undertaken by the authors during 2012-13 highlighting how research on same-gender parenthood over the past decades has influenced the recent developments in the adoption policy and practice in the UK and worldwide. The poster will identify areas of potential barriers encountered in translating these policy changes in the current practice of adoption with a particular focus on professionals’ attitudes towards same-gender couples as potential adopters.

Letter written by John Bentley, Sept. 26, 1813.

Transcript [original spelling and grammar retained]: Sacketts Harbour 26th Sept. 1813. Dear wife. From this you are informed that I am in health at this Date. When I last wrote to you I some expected to go upon and expedition but to us unknown we sat out and went up the Lake 3 Days Landed at Oswego The British Fleet appeared off, and we returned and saw our fleet upon our return, I think that our Regt. going was only a maneuver to get the Fleet out that our Fleet might come a threat[?] of them We expect to embark immediately into Canada as preparations are making to convey us over to them we are anxious to commence an action with them. Troops are daily coming in to the Harbour to take the Stand in our absence, we shall not be here 3 days before we try their[?] Powder. they are daily defecting[?] to us from Canada very fearful of the consequence of our Resisting[?] of them…our Fleet is now out and has been for 6 or 7 days. The Lake Erie fleet has done great things. I hope ours will be as successful. I think that our Generals are waiting to hear from them as every thing is ready[?] of to embark various opinions reflecting were we shall attack them some say at Kingston others at Montreal and others at Prescot—Mr. William Butler and D[?]…are well and in Spirits, Sergt Daniel White is very hearty for him, M. Samuel C[?] is well and in good health Benjm Thompson is well Charles Bryant is well [?] is well Eben[?] Smith is very much plagued with the Rheumatik Disease[?] he……… his limbs very often for being Crippled[?] he is at the Hospital I often visit it to see the sick Jacob Barnes is at the Hospital but recovering fast been very sick. Luther Gregory is at the Hospital and on the recovery, Sergt. L[?] & Smith are well, Henry ………[?] is well, very healthy have not more die here than 3…[?]to the best of my knowledge. I will make a few remarks upon the place it abounds in Lime Rock more than Thomaston and not every person to my knowledge burn it, and in the whole Town not but one Pump that supplies the Towns People and Soldiers and a ………[?] of such a Lake of water the Lake water is good for drinking but the water near the Shore is exposed to all kind of filth being thrown into it. The officers with whom I have been with have used me kindly and I get quietly by them. The Lieut. Downer who recruits at Thomaston tell me he has thots[?] of Leaving the army if so I must say I am greatly sorry as he was my ……[?] friend although he Left us and went in a northern Company it is a Company……………[?]worthy an officer as he proves to be, I cannot get any higher than a Sergeant or Quarter Master Sergeant which I may have without any friends at Thomaston assisting me. I am a Sergeant and Sergeant Daniel White is expecting[?] to be a Quarter Master Sergeant, and a number of his friends from Thomaston have went to their Major for him in the 9th Regt Major….[?] and he expects to obtain a Commission as I ……[?] expect to be promoted and it died away he will have the Laugh upon me, I wish that My Friend Dawes would[?] put the question to Col. Foot? to write to our Col. E.W. Ripley if he has …[?]in the …[?]taken by him and others of my …[?] friends[?]. I expect to come home this winter without fail. I remain your Loving Husband till Death. John Bentley for Betsey Bentley Thomaston P.S. The next Letter will be ……[?]to Mr. Dawes[?] and shall write as soon as our Fleet arrives or if we are ordered off tomorrow shall write before I leave this Place. I have understood that many letters have been ……[?]to me. I have received only 2 from Mary, one from Mr. Dawes, one from William Thompson and have answered them please to write……[?]to S. Harbour.

On Fixed-Path Rationing Methods.

Moulin (1999) characterizes the fixed-path rationing methods by efficiency, strategy-proofness, consistency, and resource-monotonicity. In this note, we give a straightforward proof of his result.

Assessing waiting times in the clinical trajectory of patients with lung cancer

Le cancer du poumon a une incidence et une létalité parmi les plus hautes de tous les cancers diagnostiqués au Canada. En considérant la gravité du pronostic et des symptômes de la maladie, l’accès au traitement dans les plus brefs de délais est essentiel. Malgré l’engagement du gouvernement fédéral et les gouvernements provinciaux de réduire les délais de temps d’attente, des balises pour les temps d’attente pour le traitement d’un cancer ne sont toujours pas établis. En outre, le compte-rendu des indicateurs des temps d’attente n’est pas uniforme à travers les provinces. Une des solutions proposées pour la réduction des temps d’attente pour le traitement du cancer est les équipes interdisciplinaires. J’ai complété un audit du programme interdisciplinaire traitant le cancer du poumon à l’Hôpital général juif (l’HGJ) de 2004 à 2007. Les objectifs primaires de l’étude étaient : (1) de faire un audit de la performance de l’équipe interdisciplinaire à l’HGJ en ce qui concerne les temps d’attente pour les intervalles critiques et les sous-groupes de patients ; (2) de comparer les temps d’attente dans la trajectoire clinique des patients traités à l’HGJ avec les balises qui existent ; (3) de déterminer les facteurs associés aux délais plus longs dans cette population. Un objectif secondaire de l’étude était de suggérer des mesures visant à réduire les temps d’attente. Le service clinique à l’HGJ a été évalué selon les balises proposées par le British Thoracic Society, Cancer Care Ontario, et la balise pan-canadienne pour la radiothérapie. Les patients de l’HGJ ont subi un délai médian de 9 jours pour l’intervalle «Ready to treat to first treatment», et un délai médian de 30 jours pour l’intervalle entre le premier contact avec l’hôpital et le premier traitement. Les patients âgés de plus de 65 ans, les patients avec une capacité physique diminuée, et les patients avec un stade de tumeur limité étaient plus à risque d’échouer les balises pour les temps d’attente.

Targeted Public Distribution System in Food Grains:Extent of Utlization by the Tribal Population in Kerala

In India, Food Security meant supply of food grains and the medium was Public Distribution System. Public Distribution System (PDS) is a rationing mechanism that entitles households to specified quantities of selected commodities at subsidized prices. The Objectives of PDS are maintaining Price Stability, rationing during times of scarcity, welfare of the poor, and keeping a check on private trade. Kerala has registered remarkable improvement in poverty reduction in general over the years among all social sections, including scheduled caste and scheduled tribe population. As part of the structural adjustment intended to reduce public expenditure, PDS has been modified as Revamped PDS (RPDS) during 1992 and later on as Targeted PDS (TPDS) in 1997, intended to target households on the basis of income criterion, classifying people as Below Poverty Line (BPL) and Above Poverty Line (APL). TPDS provides 25Kg. of food gra.ins through the Fair Price Shops per month @ Rs.3/- per Kg. of rice/ wheat to the BPL category and @Rs.8.90 and Rs.6.7O for rice and wheat respectively to the APL category of people. Since TPDS is intended to target the poor people, the subsidy spent by the government for the scheme should be beneficial to the poor people and naturally they should utilize the benefits by purchasing the food grains allotted under the scheme. Several studies have shown that there is underutilization of the allotments under TPDS. Therefore, the extent of utilization of TPDS in food grains, how and why remains as a major hurdle, in improving the structure and system of PDS. Livelihood of the tribal population being under threat due to increasing degradation of the resources, the targeting system ought to be effective among the tribal population. Therefore, performance of the TPDS in food grains, in terms of the utilization by the tribal population in Kerala, impact thereof and the factors, if any, affecting proper utilization were considered as the research problem in this study. The study concentrated on the pattern of consumption of food grains by the tribal people, whether their hunger needs are met by distribution of food grains through the TPDS, extent to which TPDS in food grains reduce their share of expenditure on food in the total household expenditure, and the factors affecting the utilization of the TPDS in food grains by the tribal population. Going through the literature, it has been noted that only few studies concentrated on the utilization of TPDS in food grains among the tribal population in Kerala.The Research Design used in this study is descriptive in nature, but exploratory in some aspects. Idukki, Palakkad and Wayanad have more than 60% of the population of the tribals in the state. Within the three districts mentioned above, 14 villages with scheduled tribe concentration were selected for the study. 95 tribal colonies were selected from among the various tribal settlements. Collection of primary data was made from 1231 households with in the above tribal colonies. Analysis of data on the socio-economic factors of the tribal people, pattern of food consumption, extent of reduction in the share of expenditure on food among the household expenditure of the tribal people and the impact of TPDS on the tribal families etc. and testing of hypotheses to find out the relation/association of each of the six variables, using the data on BPL and APL categories of households separately have resulted in findings such as six percent of the tribal families do not have Ration Cards, average per capita consumption of food grains by the tribal people utilizing TPDS meets 62% of their minimum requirement, whereas the per capita consumption of food grains by the tribal people is higher than the national average per capita consumption, 63% deficiency in food grains may be felt by tribal people in general, if TPDS is withdrawn, and the deficit for BPL tribal people may be 82%, TPDS facilitates a reduction of 9.71% in the food expenditure among the total household expenditure of the tribal people in general, share of food to non-food among BPL category of tribals is 55:45 and 40:60 among the APL, Variables, viz. household income, number of members in the family and distance of FPS from tribal settlements etc. have influence on the quantity of rice being purchased by the tribal people from the Fair Price Shops, and there is influence of household income and distance of FPS from tribal settlements on the quantity of rice being purchased by the tribal people from the open market. Rationing with differential pricing on phased allotments, rectification of errors in targeting, anomalies in norms and procedures for classifying tribal people as BPL/APL, exclusive Income Generation for tribal population, paddy cultivation in the landholdings possessed by the tribal people, special drive for allotment of Ration Cards to the tribal people, especially those belonging to the BPL category, Mobile Fair Price Shops in tribal settlements, ensure quality of the food grains distributed through the TPDS, distribution of wheat flour in packed condition instead of wheat through the Fair Price Shops are recommended to address the shortcomings and weaknesses of the TPDS vis-avis the tribal population in Kerala.

Small- and waiting-time behaviour of the thin-film-equation

We consider the small-time behavior of interfaces of zero contact angle solutions to the thin-film equation. For a certain class of initial data, through asymptotic analyses, we deduce a wide variety of behavior for the free boundary point. These are supported by extensive numerical simulations. © 2007 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

Health care rights and NHS rationing: turning theory into practice

How should we understand the nature of patients’ right in public health care systems? Are health care rights different to rights under a private contract for car insurance? This article distinguishes between public and private rights and the relevance of community interests and notions of social solidarity. It discusses the distinction between political and civil rights, and social and economic rights and the inherently political and redistributive nature of the latter. Nevertheless, social and economic rights certainly give rise to “rights” enforceable by the courts. In the UK (as in many other jurisdictions), the courts have favoured a “procedural” approach to the question, in which the courts closely scrutinise decisions and demand high standards of rationality from decision-makers. However, although this is the general rule, the article also discusses a number of exceptional cases where “substantive” remedies are available which guarantee patients access to the care they need.

Big data: a normal accident waiting to happen?

Widespread commercial use of the internet has significantly increased the volume and scope of data being collected by organisations. ‘Big data’ has emerged as a term to encapsulate both the technical and commercial aspects of this growing data collection activity. To date, much of the discussion of big data has centred upon its transformational potential for innovation and efficiency, yet there has been less reflection on its wider implications beyond commercial value creation. This paper builds upon normal accident theory (NAT) to analyse the broader ethical implications of big data. It argues that the strategies behind big data require organisational systems that leave them vulnerable to normal accidents, that is to say some form of accident or disaster that is both unanticipated and inevitable. Whilst NAT has previously focused on the consequences of physical accidents, this paper suggests a new form of system accident that we label data accidents. These have distinct, less tangible and more complex characteristics and raise significant questions over the role of individual privacy in a ‘data society’. The paper concludes by considering the ways in which the risks of such data accidents might be managed or mitigated.