Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM

The processes that govern the predictability of decadal variations in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are investigated in a long control simulation of the ECHO-G coupled atmosphere–ocean model. We elucidate the roles of local stochastic forcing by the atmosphere, and other potential ocean processes, and use our results to build a predictive regression model. The primary influence on MOC variability is found to come from air–sea heat fluxes over the Eastern Labrador Sea. The maximum correlation between such anomalies and the variations in the MOC occurs at a lead time of 2 years, but we demonstrate that the MOC integrates the heat flux variations over a period of 10 years. The corresponding univariate regression model accounts for 74.5% of the interannual variability in the MOC (after the Ekman component has been removed). Dense anomalies to the south of the Greenland-Scotland ridge are also shown to precede the overturning variations by 4–6 years, and provide a second predictor. With the inclusion of this second predictor the resulting regression model explains 82.8% of the total variance of the MOC. This final bivariate model is also tested during large rapid decadal overturning events. The sign of the rapid change is always well represented by the bivariate model, but the magnitude is usually underestimated, suggesting that other processes are also important for these large rapid decadal changes in the MOC.

A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: observations and projected changes

The Arctic has undergone substantial changes over the last few decades in various cryospheric and derivative systems and processes. Of these, the Arctic sea ice regime has seen some of the most rapid change and is one of the most visible markers of Arctic change outside the scientific community. This has drawn considerable attention not only from the natural sciences, but increasingly, from the political and commercial sectors as they begin to grapple with the problems and opportunities that are being presented. The possible impacts of past and projected changes in Arctic sea ice, especially as it relates to climatic response, are of particular interest and have been the subject of increasing research activity. A review of the current knowledge of the role of sea ice in the climate system is therefore timely. We present a review that examines both the current state of understanding, as regards the impacts of sea-ice loss observed to date, and climate model projections, to highlight hypothesised future changes and impacts on storm tracks and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Within the broad climate-system perspective, the topics of storminess and large-scale variability will be specifically considered. We then consider larger-scale impacts on the climatic system by reviewing studies that have focused on the interaction between sea-ice extent and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Finally, an overview of the representation of these topics in the literature in the context of IPCC climate projections is presented. While most agree on the direction of Arctic sea-ice change, the rates amongst the various projections vary greatly. Similarly, the response of storm tracks and climate variability are uncertain, exacerbated possibly by the influence of other factors. A variety of scientific papers on the relationship between sea-ice changes and atmospheric variability have brought to light important aspects of this complex topic. Examples are an overall reduction in the number of Arctic winter storms, a northward shift of mid-latitude winter storms in the Pacific and a delayed negative NAO-like response in autumn/winter to a reduced Arctic sea-ice cover (at least in some months). This review paper discusses this research and the disagreements, bringing about a fresh perspective on this issue.

Parameter spaces of environmental fields responsible for cyclone development from tropics to extratropics

Objective cyclone tracking applied to a 30-yr reanalysis dataset shows that cyclone development in the summer and autumn seasons is active in the tropics and extratropics and inactive in the subtropics. To understand this geographically bimodal distribution of cyclone development associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones quantitatively, the direct relationship between cyclone types and their environments are assessed by using a parameter space of environmental variables [environmental parameter space (EPS)]. The number of cyclones is analyzed in terms of two different factors: the environmental conditions favorable for cyclone development and the area size that satisfies the favorable condition. The EPS analysis is mainly conducted for two representative environmental parameters that are commonly used for cyclone analysis: potential intensity for tropical cyclones and baroclinicity for extratropical cyclones. The geographically bimodal distribution is attributed to the high sensitivity of the cyclone development to the change in the environmental fields from tropics to extratropics. In addition, the bimodal distribution is partly attributed to the rapid change in the environmental fields from tropics to extratropics. The EPS analysis also shows that other environmental parameters, including relative humidity and vertical velocity, may enhance the contrast between the tropics (extratropics) and subtropics, whereas they are not essential for determining cyclone types. The relationship between cyclones and their environments is found to be similar between the hemispheres in the EPS, although the geographical distribution, particularly the longitudinal uniformity, is markedly different between the hemispheres.

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

As práticas e o processo de diferenciação estratégica no surgimento de novas capacidades organizacionais: uma análise no lançamento de novos produtos

O processo de lançamento de novos produtos e serviços possui etapas significativas caracterizadas por atividades, rotinas e práticas que a define, e busca explorar a estratégia de diferenciação como processo-chave e determinante de sucesso (DEEDS; DECAROLIS; COOMS, 1999). Este estudo investiga como surgem novas capacidades organizacionais a partir do lançamento de novos serviços em busca de diferenciação no mercado. As práticas foram escolhidas como canal para entender de que forma as atividades e competências são direcionadas dentro da organização em atendimento a uma demanda emergente do mercado, fazendo com que a organização se diferencie das demais em um ambiente competitivo e demarcado por rápidas mudanças. O conceito de capacidades dinâmicas se encaixa à medida que o setor em que a organização pesquisada está inserida é carregado por informações que, por sua vez, está exposto a mudanças constantes, o que exige adaptação a todo o momento. A metodologia, qualitativa, foi realizada através da análise de trechos de documentos, vídeo e reportagens disponíveis no mercado a respeito do assunto, complementado por entrevistas em profundidade realizada com os responsáveis pela operação e lançamento deste novo serviço. Como resultado, foi encontrado que as práticas permitem a seleção das melhores atividades, rotinas e do que funciona ou não na organização. Permitem a criação de novas capacidades e a expressão das capacidades absorvitiva, adaptativa e inovativa, envolvidas na criação de um novo serviço para atender a demanda emergente do mercado.

Contribuições ao método de rastreamento de máxima potência para sistemas fotovoltaicos

The scarcity of natural resources and the search for alternative energy sources promote a rapid change in the energy world. Among the renewable energy sources, solar energy is the most promising, presenting technology of greatest growth rate nowadays. Researchers around the world are seeking ways to facilitate their progress, developing technologies with higher efficiency and lower cost. As a contribution to global progress, this master thesis proposes the development of a strategy of maximum power tracking based on perturbation and observation method for photovoltaic systems. The proposed control strategy is based on active power balance of the system, with a reduced number of sensors. It also allows the PV system to act as a regulator of the power quality at the point of commom coupling (PCC), compensating the harmonic distortion and power factor of the current netw

Separating interface state response from parasitic effects in conductance measurements on organic metal-insulator-semiconductor capacitors

A simple model is developed for the admittance of a metal-insulator-semiconductor (MIS) capacitor which includes the effect of a guard ring surrounding the Ohmic contact to the semiconductor. The model predicts most of the features observed in a MIS capacitor fabricated using regioregular poly(3-hexylthiophene) as the active semiconductor and polysilsesquioxane as the gate insulator. In particular, it shows that when the capacitor is driven into accumulation, the parasitic transistor formed by the guard ring and Ohmic contact can give rise to an additional feature in the admittance-voltage plot that could be mistaken for interface states. When this artifact and underlying losses in the bulk semiconductor are accounted for, the remaining experimental feature, a peak in the loss-voltage plot when the capacitor is in depletion, is identified as an interface (or near interface) state of density of similar to 4 x 10(10) cm(-2) eV(-1). Application of the model shows that exposure of a vacuum-annealed device to laboratory air produces a rapid change in the doping density in the channel region of the parasitic transistor but only slow changes in the bulk semiconductor covered by the gold Ohmic contact. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Effect of ambient temperature and thyroid hormones on food intake by pigs

Food intake and plasma thyroid hormone levels (T4 and T3) were higher in pigs acclimated to cold (12°) than hot (32°) environments. The exposure of cold pigs to hot ambient temperature decreased food intake and plasma T4 and T3, whereas for hot acclimated animals the change in ambient temperature (from 32 to 12° C) increased food intake and plasma thyroid hormone levels, but the new steady state level of food intake was reached only after 96 hr of temperature transfer despite the rapid change in plasma levels of thyroid hormones. Cold-acclimated pigs, when transferred to a hot environment after thyroidectomy, also reduced food intake, but hot pigs shifted to cold ambient temperature after thyroidectomy did not significantly increase food ingestion. The results of this experiment suggest that food intake adjustment depends on the previous living temperature and that thyroid hormones seem to play an important role in increasing the metabolically active mass that probably sustains the new steady state level of food intake, particularly in a cold environment.

Moscas-Das-Frutas em Cultivares de Cafeeiros de Presidente Prudente, SP

Coffee is considered the primary host of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann). The infestation of C. capitata in the State of São Paulo has reached economic importance in coffee plantations. Although little information about changes caused by the fly on the coffee beverage, it is known that the fruit fly infestation causes rapid change from cherry to raisin stage, causing qualitative damage on the parchment coffee production. The objective of this work was to study the population dynamics and diversity of Tephritidae and Lonchaeidae in coffee cultivars of Icatu Vermelho IAC 4045, Vermelho IAC 99, Novo Mundo 388-17-1, Obatã IAC 1669-20, Icatu Amarelo IAC 2944, grafted on Apoatã (IAC 2258) (Coffea canephora) and Icatu Vermelho IAC 4045 ungrafted and Apoatã (IAC 2258)-grafted with approximately 3 years. The experiment was conducted in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo State, Brazil, from June 2006 to July 2008. The experimental design was a randomized block with four replications in a factorial design (3 years X 6 cultivars). From each plot of 100 plants we randomly collected 250 mature fruits. The samples were taken at 15 day intervals. The population dynamics were evaluated by using one plastic McPhail trap per cultivar. After 26 months a total of 36,932 specimens of C. capitata were trapped in all cultivars, corresponding to 49.27% males and 50.73% females. Approximately 83.3% of the specimens were collected from January to December 2007. The population fluctuation showed population peaks in May, June and July, relative to fruit ripening period. We trapped 21 specimens of A. montei Lima and A. fraterculus (Wied.). The coffee fruits of Presidente Prudente, SP, are infested by the following species of Lonchaeidae: Neosilba pendula (Bezzi), N. zadolicha McAlpine & Steyskal, N. inesperata Strikis & Prado and Neosilba pradoi Strikis & Lerena. Neosilba pendula occurred in all evaluated cultivars and N. inesperata was recoverd only from Icatu Amarelo IAC 2944 and IAC Icatu Vermelho 4045/un-grafted. No Anastrepha specimen was recovered from the fruits. Cultivars did not differ due to tephritid and lonchaeid infestations, but in 2008 the highest infestation by C. capitata occurred in the field.

Na friadagem do mangal: organizar e tirar caranguejos nos fins de semana em Bragança (Vila do Acarajó)

O trabalho aqui apresentado trata da organização dos tiradores de caranguejos da Vila do Acarajó nos fins de semana, a Vila pertence ao município de Bragança//PA, nordeste do estado. A inspiração parte dos estudos dos bóias-frias. Os tiradores de caranguejos são organizados em turma, por um comerciante local que, em parceria com comerciantes moradores na cidade, facilitam a viajam dos tiradores de caranguejos em caminhões, para que possam tirar o máximo possível de crustáceos, denotando uma captura intensiva, com conseqüências negativas do ponto de vista biológico da espécie e social, dos grupos humanos que vivem no entorno dependentes do ecossistema. Este estudo foi norteado pela hipótese de que pela falta de condições materiais para desenvolver a pesca e a agricultura, devido à escassez de terra, restavam aos tiradores somente os manguezais, para alocar sua força de trabalho. Os resultados da investigação demonstram uma acelerada mudança no contexto da captura e venda dos caranguejos, produto considerado rápido e fácil parar vender. Verificou-se que a corrida aos manguezais é feita pelos moradores da Vila, mesmo aqueles que possuem terrenos, que indiscriminadamente retiram caranguejos que ainda não atingiram a fase adulta. Esses caranguejos pequenos são vendidos sem que o tamanho e a quantidade sejam questionados pelos comerciantes. Tudo é vendido.

A capa carbonática do sudoeste do cráton amazônico, estado de Rondônia: nova ocorrência e extensão dos eventos pós-glaciação marinoana (635 Ma)

Na porção oeste da Bacia dos Parecis, Estado de Rondônia, inserida no sudoeste do Cráton Amazônico, rochas carbonáticas expostas nas bordas dos grábens Pimenta Bueno e Colorado têm sido consideradas como parte do preenchimento eopaleozoico da bacia. A avaliação das fácies/microfácies e quimioestratigrafia dessas rochas nas regiões de Chupinguaia e Pimenta Bueno, confirmou a ocorrência de dolomitos rosados que sobrepõem, em contato direto, diamictitos glaciais previamente interpretados como depósitos de leques aluviais. Trabalhos prévios reportaram excursão negativa de δ¹³C, também confirmados neste trabalho, com variações entre -4.6 e -3,8‰VPDB em Chupinguaia e média de - 3,15‰VPDB em Pimenta Bueno. Esse padrão, de sedimentação e quimioestratigráfico, ausente nas rochas paleozoicas, é comumente encontrado nos depósitos carbonáticos anômalos do Neoproterozoico. No sul do Cráton Amazônico, Estado do Mato Grosso, rochas com essas mesmas características são descritas como capas carbonáticas relacionadas à glaciação marinoana (635 Ma). Neste trabalho, consideramos que os dolomitos rosados sobre diamictitos, em Rondônia, fazem parte do mesmo contexto das capas carbonáticas encontradas no Mato Grosso. Adicionalmente, destaca-se o contato brusco e deformado do dolomito sobre o diamictito, presente em ambas as ocorrências, configurando-se uma das feições típicas das capas carbonáticas do Cráton Amazônico. Essa relação paradoxal, entre diamictito e dolomito, tem sido interpretada como produto da mudança rápida das condições atmosféricas de icehouse para greenhouse, e a deformação da base foi gerada pelo rebound isostático. A capa carbonática de Rondônia compreende duas associações de fácies (AF2 e AF3) que recobrem depósitos glacio-marinhos compostos por paraconglomerados polimíticos (Pp), e arenito seixoso laminado (Asl), da AF1. A AF2 consiste em dolomudstone/dolopackstone peloidal com laminação plana a quasi-planar e com truncamentos de baixo-ângulo (fácies Dp), megamarcas onduladas (fácies Dm) e laminações truncadas por ondas (fácies Dt), interpretada como depósitos de plataforma rasa influenciada por ondas. Esta sucessão costeira é sucedida pela AF3, que compreende as fácies: dolomudstone/dolopackstone e dolomudstone/dolograinstone com partição de folhelho (Df) e siltito laminado (Sl). A fácies Df compreende um pacote de 6 metros de dolomito com partição de folhelho, apresentando lâminas de calcita fibrosa (pseudomorfos de evaporito) e dolomitos com laminações onduladas de corrente. Sobrejacente à fácies Df, ocorre a fácies Sl, apresentando 5 metros de siltito argiloso com laminação plana. Esta associação é interpretada como depósitos de plataforma rasa influenciada por maré, sendo sobreposta discordantemente, em contato angular, por depósitos glaciais do Eopaleozoico. Os valores isotópicos de C e O são negativos e refletem o sinal primário do C. No entanto, pode-se considerar uma leve influência da diagênese meteórica no sinal. As principais quebras nos sinais negativos podem estar associadas à influência meteórica, expressa pela substituição e preenchimento de poros por calcita e pela proximidade de superfícies estratigráficas, os quais refletem alguns padrões de alteração diagenética, representados nos sinais mais negativos. Diferentemente da capa carbonática do Mato Grosso, a capa de Rondônia possui níveis de pseudomorfos de evaporito e dolomitos com partição de folhelho (ritmito), em sucessão de fácies marinha rasa, onde os dolomitos de plataforma rasa influenciada por ondas passam para ritmitos e siltitos de plataforma rasa influenciada por maré (zona de inframaré), configurando uma sucessão retrogradante. Esta nova ocorrência de capa carbonática modifica a estratigrafia da base da Bacia dos Parecis, ao passo que exclui essas rochas carbonáticas da sequência eopaleozoica. Além disso, fornece informações que permitem reconstruir melhor a paleogeografia costeira da bacia neoproterozoica que acumulou os depósitos da plataforma carbonática do Grupo Araras, bem como estende os eventos pós-marinoanos ligados à hipótese do Snowball/Slushball Earth para o sudoeste do Cráton Amazônico, exposto no Estado de Rondônia.

Air versus saline in the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space

BackgroundThe success of epidural anaesthesia depends on correct identification of the epidural space. For several decades, the decision of whether to use air or physiological saline during the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space has been governed by the personal experience of the anaesthesiologist. Epidural block remains one of the main regional anaesthesia techniques. It is used for surgical anaesthesia, obstetrical analgesia, postoperative analgesia and treatment of chronic pain and as a complement to general anaesthesia. The sensation felt by the anaesthesiologist from the syringe plunger with loss of resistance is different when air is compared with saline (fluid). Frequently fluid allows a rapid change from resistance to non-resistance and increased movement of the plunger. However, the ideal technique for identification of the epidural space remains unclear.ObjectivesTo evaluate the efficacy and safety of both air and saline in the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space.To evaluate complications related to the air or saline injected.Search methodsWe searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2013, Issue 9), MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Information Database (LILACS) (from inception to September 2013). We applied no language restrictions. The date of the most recent search was 7 September 2013.Selection criteriaWe included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-randomized controlled trials (quasi-RCTs) on air and saline in the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data.Main resultsWe included in the review seven studies with a total of 852 participants. The methodological quality of the included studies was generally ranked as showing low risk of bias inmost domains, with the exception of one study, which did not mask participants. We were able to include data from 838 participants in the meta-analysis. We found no statistically significant differences between participants receiving air and those given saline in any of the outcomes evaluated: inability to locate the epidural space (three trials, 619 participants) (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 2.31, low-quality evidence); accidental intravascular catheter placement (two trials, 223 participants) (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.33 to 2.45, low-quality evidence); accidental subarachnoid catheter placement (four trials, 682 participants) (RR 2.95, 95% CI 0.12 to 71.90, low-quality evidence); combined spinal epidural failure (two trials, 400 participants) (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.44 to 2.18, low-quality evidence); unblocked segments (five studies, 423 participants) (RR 1.66, 95% CI 0.72 to 3.85); and pain measured by VAS (two studies, 395 participants) (mean difference (MD) -0.09, 95% CI -0.37 to 0.18). With regard to adverse effects, we found no statistically significant differences between participants receiving air and those given saline in the occurrence of paraesthesias (three trials, 572 participants) (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.15); difficulty in advancing the catheter (two trials, 227 participants) (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.32 to 2.56); catheter replacement (two trials, 501 participants) (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.26 to 1.83); and postdural puncture headache (one trial, 110 participants) (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.12 to 5.71).Authors' conclusionsLow-quality evidence shows that results do not differ between air and saline in terms of the loss of resistance technique for identification of the epidural space and reduction of complications. Applicability might be compromised, as most of the results described in this review were obtained from parturient patients. This review underlines the need to conduct well-designed trials in this field.

Análise de variância WAVELET de séries temporais com dados faltantes: avaliação do índice de cintilação ionosférica S4 em sinais de satélite GPS

Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

Análise de variância WAVELET de séries temporais com dados faltantes: avaliação do índice de cintilação ionosférica S4 em sinais de satélite GPS

Pós-graduação em Matematica Aplicada e Computacional - FCT

Visualizing Genomic Data

The advent of experimental techniques capable of probing biomolecules and cells at high levels of resolution has led to a rapid change in the methods used for the analysis of experimental molecular biology data. In this article we give an overview over visualization techniques and methods that can be used to assess various aspects of genomic data.