Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme

A regional envelope curve (REC) of flood flows summarises the current bound on our experience of extreme floods in a region. RECs are available for most regions of the world. Recent scientific papers introduced a probabilistic interpretation of these curves and formulated an empirical estimator of the recurrence interval T associated with a REC, which, in principle, enables us to use RECs for design purposes in ungauged basins. The main aim of this work is twofold. First, it extends the REC concept to extreme rainstorm events by introducing the Depth-Duration Envelope Curves (DDEC), which are defined as the regional upper bound on all the record rainfall depths at present for various rainfall duration. Second, it adapts the probabilistic interpretation proposed for RECs to DDECs and it assesses the suitability of these curves for estimating the T-year rainfall event associated with a given duration and large T values. Probabilistic DDECs are complementary to regional frequency analysis of rainstorms and their utilization in combination with a suitable rainfall-runoff model can provide useful indications on the magnitude of extreme floods for gauged and ungauged basins. The study focuses on two different national datasets, the peak over threshold (POT) series of rainfall depths with duration 30 min., 1, 3, 9 and 24 hrs. obtained for 700 Austrian raingauges and the Annual Maximum Series (AMS) of rainfall depths with duration spanning from 5 min. to 24 hrs. collected at 220 raingauges located in northern-central Italy. The estimation of the recurrence interval of DDEC requires the quantification of the equivalent number of independent data which, in turn, is a function of the cross-correlation among sequences. While the quantification and modelling of intersite dependence is a straightforward task for AMS series, it may be cumbersome for POT series. This paper proposes a possible approach to address this problem.

Long-term effects of watershed management on surface runoff and sediment loss in the Ethiopian Highlands

Data on rainfall, runoff and sediment loss from different land use types have been collected by the Soil Conservation Research Programme in seven small catchments (73-673 hectares) throughout the Ethiopian Highlands since the early 1980s. Monitoring was carried out on a storm-to-storm basis for extended periods of 10-20 years, and the data are analysed here to assess long-term effects of changes. Soil and water conservation technologies were introduced in the early years in the catchments in view of their capacity to reduce runoff and sediment yield. Results indicate that rainfall did not substantially change over the observation periods. Land use changes and land degradation, however, altered runoff, as shown by the data from small test plots (30 m2), which were not altered by conservation measures during the monitoring periods. Sediment delivery from the catchments may have decreased due to soil and water conservation, while runoff rates did not change significantly. Extrapolation of the results in the highlands, however, showed that expansion of cultivated and grazing land induced by population growth may have increased the overall surface runoff. Watershed management in the catchments, finally, had beneficial effects on ecosystem services by reducing soil erosion, restoring soil fertility, enhancing agricultural production, and maintaining overall runoff to the benefit of lowland areas and neighbouring countries.

Runoff evaluation and streamflow simulation by computer /

"A United States contribution to the International Hydrological Decade."

The use of Meteosat satellite data for spatial rainfall estimations and hydrological simulations

Satellite information, in combination with conventional point source measurements, can be a valuable source of information. This thesis is devoted to the spatial estimation of areal rainfall over a region using both the measurements from a dense and sparse network of rain-gauges and images from the meteorological satellites. A primary concern is to study the effects of such satellite assisted rainfall estimates on the performance of rainfall-runoff models. Low-cost image processing systems and peripherals are used to process and manipulate the data. Both secondary as well as primary satellite images were used for analysis. The secondary data was obtained from the in-house satellite receiver and the primary data was obtained from an outside source. Ground truth data was obtained from the local Water Authority. A number of algorithms are presented that combine the satellite and conventional data sources to produce areal rainfall estimates and the results are compared with some of the more traditional methodologies. The results indicate that the satellite cloud information is valuable in the assessment of the spatial distribution of areal rainfall, for both half-hourly as well as daily estimates of rainfall. It is also demonstrated how the performance of the simple multiple regression rainfall-runoff model is improved when satellite cloud information is used as a separate input in addition to rainfall estimates from conventional means. The use of low-cost equipment, from image processing systems to satellite imagery, makes it possible for developing countries to introduce such systems in areas where the benefits are greatest.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Port of Brisbane stormwater quality : stage 2 development of a port specific water quality model

Background: The quality of stormwater runoff from ports is significant as it can be an important source of pollution to the marine environment. This is also a significant issue for the Port of Brisbane as it is located in an area of high environmental values. Therefore, it is imperative to develop an in-depth understanding of stormwater runoff quality to ensure that appropriate strategies are in place for quality improvement, where necessary. To this end, the Port of Brisbane Corporation aimed to develop a port specific stormwater model for the Fisherman Islands facility. The need has to be considered in the context of the proposed future developments of the Port area. ----------------- The Project: The research project is an outcome of the collaborative Partnership between the Port of Brisbane Corporation (POBC) and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). A key feature of this Partnership is that it seeks to undertake research to assist the Port in strengthening the environmental custodianship of the Port area through ‘cutting edge’ research and its translation into practical application. ------------------ The project was separated into two stages. The first stage developed a quantitative understanding of the generation potential of pollutant loads in the existing land uses. This knowledge was then used as input for the stormwater quality model developed in the subsequent stage. The aim is to expand this model across the yet to be developed port expansion area. This is in order to predict pollutant loads associated with stormwater flows from this area with the longer term objective of contributing to the development of ecological risk mitigation strategies for future expansion scenarios. ----------------- Study approach: Stage 1 of the overall study confirmed that Port land uses are unique in terms of the anthropogenic activities occurring on them. This uniqueness in land use results in distinctive stormwater quality characteristics different to other conventional urban land uses. Therefore, it was not scientifically valid to consider the Port as belonging to a single land use category or to consider as being similar to any typical urban land use. The approach adopted in this study was very different to conventional modelling studies where modelling parameters are developed using calibration. The field investigations undertaken in Stage 1 of the overall study helped to create fundamental knowledge on pollutant build-up and wash-off in different Port land uses. This knowledge was then used in computer modelling so that the specific characteristics of pollutant build-up and wash-off can be replicated. This meant that no calibration processes were involved due to the use of measured parameters for build-up and wash-off. ---------------- Conclusions: Stage 2 of the study was primarily undertaken using the SWMM stormwater quality model. It is a physically based model which replicates natural processes as closely as possible. The time step used and catchment variability considered was adequate to accommodate the temporal and spatial variability of input parameters and the parameters used in the modelling reflect the true nature of rainfall-runoff and pollutant processes to the best of currently available knowledge. In this study, the initial loss values adopted for the impervious surfaces are relatively high compared to values noted in research literature. However, given the scientifically valid approach used for the field investigations, it is appropriate to adopt the initial losses derived from this study for future modelling of Port land uses. The relatively high initial losses will reduce the runoff volume generated as well as the frequency of runoff events significantly. Apart from initial losses, most of the other parameters used in SWMM modelling are generic to most modelling studies. Development of parameters for MUSIC model source nodes was one of the primary objectives of this study. MUSIC, uses the mean and standard deviation of pollutant parameters based on a normal distribution. However, based on the values generated in this study, the variation of Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) for Port land uses within the given investigation period does not fit a normal distribution. This is possibly due to the fact that only one specific location was considered, namely the Port of Brisbane unlike in the case of the MUSIC model where a range of areas with different geographic and climatic conditions were investigated. Consequently, the assumptions used in MUSIC are not totally applicable for the analysis of water quality in Port land uses. Therefore, in using the parameters included in this report for MUSIC modelling, it is important to note that it may result in under or over estimations of annual pollutant loads. It is recommended that the annual pollutant load values given in the report should be used as a guide to assess the accuracy of the modelling outcomes. A step by step guide for using the knowledge generated from this study for MUSIC modelling is given in Table 4.6. ------------------ Recommendations: The following recommendations are provided to further strengthen the cutting edge nature of the work undertaken: * It is important to further validate the approach recommended for stormwater quality modelling at the Port. Validation will require data collection in relation to rainfall, runoff and water quality from the selected Port land uses. Additionally, the recommended modelling approach could be applied to a soon-to-be-developed area to assess ‘before’ and ‘after’ scenarios. * In the modelling study, TSS was adopted as the surrogate parameter for other pollutants. This approach was based on other urban water quality research undertaken at QUT. The validity of this approach should be further assessed for Port land uses. * The adoption of TSS as a surrogate parameter for other pollutants and the confirmation that the <150 m particle size range was predominant in suspended solids for pollutant wash-off gives rise to a number of important considerations. The ability of the existing structural stormwater mitigation measures to remove the <150 m particle size range need to be assessed. The feasibility of introducing source control measures as opposed to end-of-pipe measures for stormwater quality improvement may also need to be considered.

Climate variability over the last 35,000 years recorded in marine and terrestrial archives in the Australian region : an OZ-INTIMATE compilation

The Australian region spans some 60° of latitude and 50° of longitude and displays considerable regional climate variability both today and during the Late Quaternary. A synthesis of marine and terrestrial climate records, combining findings from the Southern Ocean, temperate, tropical and arid zones, identifies a complex response of climate proxies to a background of changing boundary conditions over the last 35,000 years. Climate drivers include the seasonal timing of insolation, greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, sea level rise and ocean and atmospheric circulation changes. Our compilation finds few climatic events that could be used to construct a climate event stratigraphy for the entire region, limiting the usefulness of this approach. Instead we have taken a spatial approach, looking to discern the patterns of change across the continent. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region.

First flush behaviour in urban residential catchments

The current state of knowledge in relation to first flush does not provide a clear understanding of the role of rainfall and catchment characteristics in influencing this phenomenon. This is attributed to the inconsistent findings from research studies due to the unsatisfactory selection of first flush indicators and how first flush is defined. The research study discussed in this thesis provides the outcomes of a comprehensive analysis on the influence of rainfall and catchment characteristics on first flush behaviour in residential catchments. Two sets of first flush indicators are introduced in this study. These indicators were selected such that they are representative in explaining in a systematic manner the characteristics associated with first flush. Stormwater samples and rainfall-runoff data were collected and recorded from stormwater monitoring stations established at three urban catchments at Coomera Waters, Gold Coast, Australia. In addition, historical data were also used to support the data analysis. Three water quality parameters were analysed, namely, total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN). The data analyses were primarily undertaken using multi criteria decision making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Based on the data obtained, the pollutant load distribution curve (LV) was determined for the individual rainfall events and pollutant types. Accordingly, two sets of first flush indicators were derived from the curve, namely, cumulative load wash-off for every 10% of runoff volume interval (interval first flush indicators or LV) from the beginning of the event and the actual pollutant load wash-off during a 10% increment in runoff volume (section first flush indicators or P). First flush behaviour showed significant variation with pollutant types. TSS and TP showed consistent first flush behaviour. However, the dissolved fraction of TN showed significant differences to TSS and TP first flush while particulate TN showed similarities. Wash-off of TSS, TP and particulate TN during the first 10% of the runoff volume showed no influence from corresponding rainfall intensity. This was attributed to the wash-off of weakly adhered solids on the catchment surface referred to as "short term pollutants" or "weakly adhered solids" load. However, wash-off after 10% of the runoff volume showed dependency on the rainfall intensity. This is attributed to the wash-off of strongly adhered solids being exposed when the weakly adhered solids diminish. The wash-off process was also found to depend on rainfall depth at the end part of the event as the strongly adhered solids are loosened due to impact of rainfall in the earlier part of the event. Events with high intensity rainfall bursts after 70% of the runoff volume did not demonstrate first flush behaviour. This suggests that rainfall pattern plays a critical role in the occurrence of first flush. Rainfall intensity (with respect to the rest of the event) that produces 10% to 20% runoff volume play an important role in defining the magnitude of the first flush. Events can demonstrate high magnitude first flush when the rainfall intensity occurring between 10% and 20% of the runoff volume is comparatively high while low rainfall intensities during this period produces low magnitude first flush. For events with first flush, the phenomenon is clearly visible up to 40% of the runoff volume. This contradicts the common definition that first flush only exists, if for example, 80% of the pollutant mass is transported in the first 30% of runoff volume. First flush behaviour for TN is different compared to TSS and TP. Apart from rainfall characteristics, the composition and the availability of TN on the catchment also play an important role in first flush. The analysis confirmed that events with low rainfall intensity can produce high magnitude first flush for the dissolved fraction of TN, while high rainfall intensity produce low dissolved TN first flush. This is attributed to the source limiting behaviour of dissolved TN wash-off where there is high wash-off during the initial part of a rainfall event irrespective of the intensity. However, for particulate TN, the influence of rainfall intensity on first flush characteristics is similar to TSS and TP. The data analysis also confirmed that first flush can occur as high magnitude first flush, low magnitude first flush or non existence of first flush. Investigation of the influence of catchment characteristics on first flush found that the key factors that influence the phenomenon are the location of the pollutant source, spatial distribution of the pervious and impervious surfaces in the catchment, drainage network layout and slope of the catchment. This confirms that first flush phenomenon cannot be evaluated based on a single or a limited set of parameters as a number of catchment characteristics should be taken into account. Catchments where the pollutant source is located close to the outlet, a high fraction of road surfaces, short travel time to the outlet, with steep slopes can produce high wash-off load during the first 50% of the runoff volume. Rainfall characteristics have a comparatively dominant impact on the wash-off process compared to the catchment characteristics. In addition, the pollutant characteristics also should be taken into account in designing stormwater treatment systems due to different wash-off behaviour. Analysis outcomes confirmed that there is a high TSS load during the first 20% of the runoff volume followed by TN which can extend up to 30% of the runoff volume. In contrast, high TP load can exist during the initial and at the end part of a rainfall event. This is related to the composition of TP available for the wash-off.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Evaluating Methods to Predict Streamflow at Ungauged Sites using Regional Flow Duration Curves: A Case Study

Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modelagem hidrológica da bacia hidrográfica do rio Bengalas, Nova Friburgo, RJ, utilizando o potencial de geotecnologias na definição de áreas de risco de inundação.

A presente pesquisa concentra-se no estudo hidrológico utilizando o potencial das geotecnologias na modelagem do escoamento na bacia do rio Bengalas, cujo rio principal de mesmo nome, corta o município de Nova Friburgo, RJ, no sentido Sul-Norte. Esse município, um dos mais importantes da região serrana, sofre frequentemente com inundações e deslizamentos, onde, dados históricos e acontecimentos recentes mostram que a ocupação inadequada de encostas e calhas dos rios são as áreas destacada e negativamente afetadas. A metodologia tem suporte no uso de um SIG, extraindo informações, que por sua vez, serão entrada de dados na fase de modelagem, e reforçando a apresentação dos resultados das simulações através de mapas. Ela está divida basicamente em três etapas: "SIG", "Modelagem" e "Suporte à Tomada de Decisão/Simulação". Esse primeiro estudo permitiu compor um banco de dados geográfico com as características fisiográficas da bacia; a seleção criteriosa de uma modelagem matemática e encadeamento de seus parâmetros com os componentes do ciclo hidrológico; realizar a calibração do modelo de transformação chuva-vazão, Soil Conservation Service (CN); e simular a passagem dos volumes gerados pela precipitação efetiva na calha do rio Bengalas, com o objetivo de identificar e analisar as áreas suscetíveis a inundações na porção central da cidade de Nova Friburgo. Modelagem dessa natureza vem sendo empregada, principalmente, no gerenciamento de recursos hídricos, onde a tomada de decisões embasada nos resultados de simulações computacionais, contribuem para evitar prejuízos materiais e financeiros, e ainda, perdas de vidas humanas em áreas de risco, neste caso, aquelas suscetíveis a inundações. Analisando os resultados encontrados temos que a área suscetível à inundação para uma chuva com tempo de recorrência de 50 anos, o mais crítico estudado, seja de aproximadamente 1,0 km, distribuídos nos seus 8,5km na região central de Nova Friburgo-RJ, sendo está, ora delimitada, prioritariamente edificada.

Planejamento de recursos hídricos de áreas rurais degradadas: aplicação do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica experimental na região Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

A degradação ambiental do Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro tem se intensificado nas últimas décadas devido às práticas agrícolas não preservacionistas. Esta situação, que decorre do uso inadequado do solo, tem implicado em mudanças na oferta hídrica em grau variável nos municípios da região com prejuízos econômicos nas atividades dos pequenos e médios proprietários rurais e na qualidade de vida. A abordagem para enfrentar problemas deste tipo depende da participação efetiva das instâncias de governo e dos órgãos responsáveis pela gestão dos recursos hídricos. No âmbito da hidrologia os modelos hidrológicos com base no uso e ocupação do solo são ferramentas que podem auxiliar com ótimo custo e benefício a geração de informações em bacias hidrográficas, instrumentadas ou não. Os modelos são úteis ao planejamento e à tomada de decisão por possibilitarem a previsão de vazões e simulação de cenários sobre o uso do solo e qualidade da água. Neste sentido, o presente estudo pretende dar sua contribuição ao avaliar a adequabilidade do modelo SWAT simular o processo chuva-vazão na microbacia experimental de Santa Maria e Cambiocó, com 13,5 km2, localizada na região hidrográfica do rio Muriaé, afluente do rio Paraíba do Sul. O SWAT tem sido empregado em bacias agrícolas nos EUA, na Europa e, atualmente, na China, sudeste asiático e Irã, entre outros países, e na última década maior inserção no meio acadêmico brasileiro. A versão 2005 do modelo foi utilizada por meio da sua interface SIG para simular as vazões médias diárias com base na precipitação medida no intervalo de 15 minutos no período de 2005/2006. As vazões simuladas foram comparadas com as vazões observadas no exutório da microbacia. Foram testadas as ferramentas de análise de sensibilidade e autocalibração. O método de calibração manual foi usado para o ajuste por tentativa e erro. Os parâmetros ajustados corresponderam ao CN2 e ESCO. Os valores obtidos na calibração para os coeficientes estatísticos R2, NSE, PBIAS e RSR foram 0,80, 0,80, 7,02 e 0,45, respectivamente, indicando escore muito bom, o que foi confirmado pela inspeção dos hidrogramas. As saídas validadas para período diferente da calibração forneceram para os mesmos coeficientes os valores 0,84, 0,80, 25,92 e 0,44. Os dois primeiros, com escore muito bom. O valor de PBIAS, no limite do satisfatório, e RSR, muito bom. O desempenho permitiu concluir que a simulação com o SWAT foi adequada. Em relação às pesquisas que têm sido realizadas no Brasil os valores obtidos para os indicadores foram semelhantes, indicando a capacidade do modelo para novos estudos nesta microbacia que considerem os usos consuntivos e cenários de uso do solo.

A non-linear perturbation model considering catchment wetness and its application in river flow forecasting

A non-linear perturbation model for river flow forecasting is developed, based on consideration of catchment wetness using an antecedent precipitation index (API). Catchment seasonality, of the form accounted for in the linear perturbation model (the LPM), and non-linear behaviour both in the runoff generation mechanism and in the flow routing processes are represented by a constrained nan-linear model, the NLPM-API. A total of ten catchments, across a range of climatic conditions and catchment area magnitudes, located in China and in other countries, were selected for testing daily rainfall-runoff forecasting with this model. It was found that the NLPM-API model was significantly more efficient than the original linear perturbation model (the LPM). However, restric tion of explicit nan-linearity to the runoff generation process, in the simpler LPM-API form of the model, did not produce a significantly lower value of the efficiency in flood forecasting, in terms of the model efficiency index R-2. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.

黄土高原降雨径流调控利用潜力定量评价模型

降雨径流的调控利用是缓解黄土高原干旱缺水与控制水土流失的有效手段,研究区域降雨径流调控利用潜力的定量评价对黄土高原降雨径流合理利用的宏观决策与规划设计具有重要意义。以黄土高原为例,将可以调控利用的最大降雨径流量作为资源化潜力值,从宏观尺度上,系统分析了影响该潜力的各个因素,确定出黄土高原降雨径流调控利用潜力的各项评价指标,利用GIS技术,建立了降雨径流各个影响因素的专题图层,提取出各个影响因素专题信息。在上述基础上,引入人工神经网络建模方法,建立了黄土高原降雨径流调控利用潜力BP网络模型,并利用实际资料对网络模型进行了训练和预测,取得了较好的结果。评价模型可供黄土高原降雨径流调控利用及其生态与环境保护工作参考。