Perceptions and reality: Economic voting at the 2004 European Parliament elections

One of the most influential explanations of voting behaviour is based on economic factors: when the economy is doing well, voters reward the incumbent government and when the economy is doing badly, voters punish the incumbent. This reward-punishment model is thought to be particularly appropriate at second order contests such as European Parliament elections. Yet operationalising this economic voting model using citizens' perceptions of economic performance may suffer from endogeneity problems if citizens' perceptions are in fact a function of their party preferences rather than being a cause of their party preferences. Thus, this article models a 'strict' version of economic voting in which they purge citizens' economic perceptions of partisan effects and only use as a predictor of voting that portion of citizens' economic perceptions that is caused by the real world economy. Using data on voting at the 2004 European Parliament elections for 23 European Union electorates, the article finds some, but limited, evidence for economic voting that is dependent on both voter sophistication and clarity of responsibility for the economy within any country. First, only politically sophisticated voters' subjective economic assessments are in fact grounded in economic reality. Second, the portion of subjective economic assessments that is a function of the real world economy is a significant predictor of voting only in single party government contexts where there can be a clear attribution of responsibility. For coalition government contexts, the article finds essentially no impact of the real economy via economic perceptions on vote choice, at least at European Parliament elections.

After the Party the Hangover?: An Analysis of ‘Post-Celtic Tiger’ Ireland in the Light of the February 2011 elections’

The election of February 2011 was dominated by the International Monetary Fund/European Central Bank bailout of November 2010, the state of the public finances, the ongoing Irish banking crisis, and the disastrous state of the economy with rising unemployment, emigration and collapsing international competiveness. After years of phenomenal economic growth (at least as measured by orthodox economic measurements such as gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment), known as the 'Celtic Tiger‘, during which a bloated construction industry accounted for a quarter of GDP and Irish banks sank nearly a third of their lending in construction projects, Ireland has entered a 'post-Celtic Tiger‘ era. This article offers a critical analysis outlining some political, economic and cultural issues of this election as heralding a decisive stage in the 'post-Celtic Tiger' development of the Republic of Ireland, and suggests that what is required at this present historical moment is that a different development model be articulated by the Irish state and wider society.

Consensus in organizations:Hunting for the social choice conundrum in APA elections

According to the axiomatic literature on consensus methods, the best collective choice by one method of preference aggregation can easily be the worst by another. Are award committees, electorates, managers, online retailers, and web-based recommender systems stuck with an impossibility of rational preference aggregation? We investigate this social choice conundrum for seven social choice methods: Condorcet, Borda, Plurality, Antiplurality, the Single Transferable Vote, Coombs, and Plurality Runoff. We rely on Monte Carlo simulations for theoretical results and on twelve ballot datasets from American Psychological Association (APA) presidential elections for empirical results. Each of these elections provides partial rankings of five candidates from about 13,000 to about 20,000 voters. APA preferences are neither domain-restricted nor generated by an Impartial Culture. We find virtually no trace of a Condorcet paradox. In direct contrast with the classical social choice conundrum, competing consensus methods agree remarkably well, especially on the overall best and worst options. The agreement is also robust under perturbations of the preference prole via resampling, even in relatively small pseudosamples. We also explore prescriptive implications of our findings.

Electronic voting in the French legislative elections of 2012

This chapter presents an analysis of the unprecedented use of electronic voting by expatriates during the French 2012 legislative elections, when they elected their own representatives (referred to here as ‘deputies’), to the National Assembly in Paris for the first time, in 11 newly created overseas constituencies.
The study is presented within the broader perspective of electronic voting in France more generally, and in the historical context of extra-territorial voting by French expatriates. The authors discuss the main issues and controversies that arose during the 2012 elections, and in a final section analyse the results. The authors conclude by drawing attention to recent developments in electronic voting in France since the 2012 elections, which suggest that although there was much criticism expressed by experts of electronic voting as to the security and transparency of the system used, the official discourse that acclaimed the experience as a success, appears to have convinced its target audience.

Defining Democracy: Voting Procedures in Decision-making, Elections and Governance

Book Review: Emerson, Peter, Defining Democracy: Voting Procedures in Decision-making, Elections and
Governance (2nd edn), Springer, London, 2012,

Plus Ça Change: The 2014 Local Elections in Northern Ireland

The local government elections of 22 May 2014 in Northern Ireland were the first to be held under revised district boundaries, with 11 'super councils' replacing the 26-council model used since 1973. Despite the structural reform, little changed in terms of political party support. Although they suffered some losses, the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Féin remained firmly entrenched as the two dominant players at local government level in Northern Ireland. The Ulster Unionist Party enjoyed only a marginal increase in its vote share, while the Social Democratic and Labour Party recorded one of the worst electoral performances in its history. Elsewhere, the Traditional Unionist Voice enjoyed a 'breakthrough' election and the Alliance Party defied widely held predictions that it would suffer at the polls as a result of its role in the Union flag crisis. The campaign was overshadowed by both the concurrent European Parliament contest and several crises of power-sharing at Stormont. As a result, distinctly local government issues received scant and fleeting attention. The contest saw the lowest local election turnout in Northern Ireland's history, continuing a general trend of increasing voter apathy in the province.

Contributos para o planeamento de uma política de Recursos Humanos da Saúde para Moçambique - Análise de situação sobre os processos de gestão e o que deve ser contemplado num Plano de Desenvolvimento dos Recursos Humanos da Saúde em Moçambique segundo um grupo de responsáveis pela gestão de nivel provincial

Esta tese é sobre os Recursos Humanos da Saúde (RHS) em Moçambique, sem os quais não é possível haver prestação de cuidados de saúde. Moçambique gasta a maioria do seu Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) na saúde pública (4 por cento), mas apesar de ter registado melhorias significativas dos seus indicadores de saúde nos últimos anos (OMS, 2010), continua a enfrentar o desafio de um Sistema de Saúde (SS) debilitado (MSF, 2007), com fraca capacidade de resposta às necessidades de saúde da população. Actualmente a atenção do Governo moçambicano centra-se na expansão, fortalecimento e melhoria do Serviço Nacional de Saúde (SNS), mas os problemas existentes com os RHS continuam a ser a maior barreira para alcançar estes objectivos (OMS, 2010). O SS enfrenta problemas de densidade, distribuição e desempenho destes recursos (Ferrinho & Omar, 2006). Finalidade e objectivos Esta tese tem como finalidade obter contributos para o planeamento de uma política de Recursos Humanos da Saúde para Moçambique. Com o objectivo geral de conhecer as percepções que os responsáveis pela gestão de nível provincial têm dos processos de gestão utilizados e o que consideram ser os temas mais importantes a contemplar no planeamento de uma política de RHS, a tese foi desenhada para responder aos seguintes objectivos específicos: 1.Descrever as estruturas organizacionais de nível provincial e explorar a percepção dos responsáveis pela gestão sobre a adequação destas; 2.Descrever as funções das Direcções Provinciais de Saúde, Departamentos de Recursos Humanos e Departamentos de Formação e explorar considerações importantes decorrentes da experiência dos gestores responsáveis por aquelas; 3.Descrever os instrumentos de gestão utilizados na organização e no planeamento pelos responsáveis pela gestão e o eventual envolvimento destes na sua elaboração; 4.Descrever o processo de monitoria e avaliação existente e explorar considerações importantes decorrentes da percepção dos responsáveis pela gestão; 5.Explorar a percepção dos responsáveis pela gestão sobre questões relacionadas com os Recursos Humanos da Saúde da Província, nomeadamente aspectos como temas prioritários a considerar, a sua dotação, formação e sistemas de gestão de informação existentes; 6. Obter recomendações e propostas dos responsáveis pela gestão para os aspectos que deverão ser considerados numa política de RHS para Moçambique. Métodos Para alcançar a finalidade e os objectivos enunciados foi efectuado um estudo descritivo por inquérito, no âmbito do qual foram aplicadas entrevistas semi-estruturadas a um conjunto de sujeitos seleccionados por amostragem intencional. Os sujeitos que integram a amostra são responsáveis pela gestão de nível provincial em quatro províncias de Moçambique (Maputo Cidade, Maputo Província, Nampula e Niassa). Resultados Foi constatada uma variabilidade de funções, autonomia e envolvimento dos entrevistados na prossecução das suas actividades, tendo sido identificadas diferentes sinergias ao nível do planeamento nas quatro províncias. A insuficiência de recursos financeiros, a libertação tardia de fundos e a sobreposição de actividades, foram identificados como problemas sobre os quais os entrevistados não têm poder de controlo e que afectam negativamente as actividades da província. Factores como a formação, a necessidade de criação de mecanismos de motivação e envolvimento dos RHS, bem como, a necessidade de desbloqueio dos processos administrativos com impacto directo na carreira dos RHS, foram identificados como problemas que afectam a província. Em relação aos RHS das províncias foram ainda identificados problemas de densidade, distribuição, fracas capacidades técnicas, desmotivação e fuga de capital humano para outros sectores.   Conclusões O trabalho aqui apresentado permitiu revelar os principais problemas relacionados com os RHS enfrentados pelo Ministério da Saúde (MISAU), conforme estes são percepcionados por um grupo de responsáveis pela gestão de nível provincial. Os principais problemas referidos pelos entrevistados referem-se à densidade, distribuição e desempenho, mas também, alguns problemas transversais. No âmbito deste estudo, e como pontos de partida principais, realça-se a importância de potenciar o planeamento com base em evidência e minimizar o por vezes fraco envolvimento de todos os stakeholders chave do MISAU no planeamento estratégico, directamente relacionado com os RHS. Dada a realidade de parcos recursos financeiros, humanos e de infra-estruturas de que Moçambique dispõe, afigura-se de primordial importância um planeamento coerente, que permita ao nível central a tomada de decisão e delineação de planos de acção baseados em evidências. Por outro lado, o envolvimento de todos os stakeholders chave propicia o alinhamento entre os planos estratégicos e os planos operacionais elaborados ao nível da província e dos distritos.

Determinants of reelection in Portuguese municipal elections

This Work Project investigates the determinants of reelection using data on the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the period 1976-2009. We implement a logit fixed effect model to control for the municipalities’ unobserved characteristics that remain constant over time. Political variables, such as the vote share of the incumbent’s party in previous election, the number of mayor’s consecutive mandates and abstention rate, are found to be relevant in explaining incumbent’s reelection. Moreover, as to the mayor’s individual characteristics, age and education contribute to explain reelection prospects. We also provide weak evidence that a higher degree of fiscal autonomy increases political turnover and that the good economic prospects of the municipality positively affect reelection. Finally, the residents’ level of education and the size of the municipal population have an explanatory power on mayor’s reelection. We perform several robustness checks to confirm these results.

From e-voting to smart-voting : e-Tools in and for elections and direct democracy in Switzerland

To what extent do and could e-tools contribute to a democracy like Switzerland? This paper puts forward experiences and visions concerning the application of e-tools for the most traditional democratic processes- elections and, of special importance in Switzerland, direct-democratic votes.Having the particular voting behaviour of the Swiss electorate in mind (low voter turnout - especially among the youngest age group, low political knowledge, etc.) we believe that e-tools which provide information in the forefront of elections or direct-democratic votes offer an enormous service to the voter. As soon as e-voting will be possible in Switzerland (as planned by the government), those e-tools for gathering information online will become indispensable and will gain power enormously. Therefore political scientists should not only focus on potential effects of e-voting itself but rather on the combination of (connected)e-tools of the pre-voting and the voting sphere. In the case of Switzerland, we argue in this paper, the offer of VAAs such as smartvote for elections and direct-democratic votes can provide the voter with more balanced and qualitatively higher information and thereby make a valuable contribution to the Swiss democracy.