Creation of Computer Simulation Model for Ecological Consequences Prognosis of Toxic Chemicals Discharge from Sunken on Baltic Sea Bottom Weapons"

This study summarises all the accessible data on old German chemical weapons dumped in the Baltic Sea. Mr. Goncharov formulated a concept of ecological impact evaluation of chemical warfare agents (CWA) on the marine environment and structured a simulation model adapted to the specific character of the hydrological condition and hydrobiological subjects of the Bornholm Deep. The mathematical model he has created describes the spreading of contaminants by currents and turbulence in the near bottom boundary layer. Parameters of CWA discharge through corrosion of canisters were given for various kinds of bottom sediments with allowance for current velocity. He created a method for integral estimations and a computer simulation model and completed a forecast for CWA "Mustard", which showed that in normal hydrometeorological conditions there are local toxic plumes drifting along the bottom for a distance of up to several kilometres. With storm winds the toxic plumes from separate canisters interflow and lengthen and can reach fishery areas near Bornholm Island. When salt water from the North Sea flows in, the length of toxic zones can increase up to and over 100 kilometres and toxic water masses can spread into the northern Baltic. On this basis, Mr. Goncharov drew up recommendations to reduce dangers for human ecology and proposed the creation of a special system for the forecasting and remote sensing of the environmental conditions of CWA burial places.

A high-resolution soil erosion risk map of Switzerland as strategic policy support system

Soil erosion models and soil erosion risk maps are often used as indicators to assess potential soil erosion in order to assist policy decisions. This paper shows the scientific basis of the soil erosion risk map of Switzerland and its application in policy and practice. Linking a USLE/RUSLE-based model approach (AVErosion) founded on multiple flow algorithms and the unit contributing area concept with an extremely precise and high-resolution digital terrain model (2 m × 2 m grid) using GIS allows for a realistic assessment of the potential soil erosion risk, on single plots, i.e. uniform and comprehensive for the agricultural area of Switzerland (862,579 ha in the valley area and the lower mountain regions). The national or small-scale soil erosion prognosis has thus reached a level heretofore possible only in smaller catchment areas or single plots. Validation was carried out using soil loss data from soil erosion damage mappings in the field from long-term monitoring in different test areas. 45% of the evaluated agricultural area of Switzerland was classified as low potential erosion risk, 12% as moderate potential erosion risk, and 43% as high potential erosion risk. However, many of the areas classified as high potential erosion risk are located at the transition from valley to mountain zone, where many areas are used as permanent grassland, which drastically lowers their current erosion risk. The present soil erosion risk map serves on the one hand to identify and prioritise the high-erosion risk areas, and on the other hand to promote awareness amongst farmers and authorities. It was published on the internet and will be made available to the authorities in digital form. It is intended as a tool for simplifying and standardising enforcement of the legal framework for soil erosion prevention in Switzerland. The work therefore provides a successful example of cooperation between science, policy and practice.

Contact system activation in human sepsis - 47kD HK, a marker of sepsis severity?

AIM: This pilot study seeks to determine whether contact system activation (CSA) occurs in human sepsis patients and to characterise blood levels of the 47kD light chain of high-molecular weight kininogen (47kD HK). METHODS: Six consecutive patients with clinical suspicion of sepsis were evaluated on days 1, 2, 3 and 6-8 for 47kD HK blood levels expressed in U/ml of whole blood and as percent of total HK. 47kD HK was measured in whole blood by quantitative immunoblot analysis. RESULTS: On study day 1 or 2, analysis of 47kD HK in U/ml of whole blood identified CSA in 3/6 patients.When 47kD HK levels were expressed as percent of total HK, 4/6 patients were identified with CSA before day 3. The degree of CSA as assayed by the presence of 47kD HK correlated with the severity of the systemic inflammatory syndrome (SIRS), i.e. mean CSA increased progressively from basal levels in healthy controls (0.08 U/ml or 10.4%) to patients without SIRS (0.10 U/ml or 15.1%), to patients with sepsis (0.12 U/ml or 15.0%), and finally to patients in a combined category of severe sepsis and septic shock (0.13 U/ml or 17.4%). CONCLUSION: CSA, defined by increased 47kD HK, occurred early on in the course of sepsis in a subset of sepsis patients. 47kD HK levels, an indicator of bradykinin release, correlated with sepsis severity. Future larger studies will need to evaluate the role of 47kD HK as a biomarker for both prognosis and treatment response in human sepsis..

A multifactorial histopathologic score for the prediction of prognosis of resected esophageal adenocarcinomas after neoadjuvant chemotherapy

BACKGROUND For esophageal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, postoperative staging classifications initially developed for non-pretreated tumors may not accurately predict prognosis. We tested whether a multifactorial TNM-based histopathologic prognostic score (PRSC), which additionally applies to tumor regression, may improve estimation of prognosis compared with the current Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer (UICC) staging system. PATIENTS AND METHODS We evaluated esophageal adenocarcinoma specimens following cis/oxaliplatin-based therapy from two separate centers (center 1: n = 280; and center 2: n = 80). For the PRSC, each factor was assigned a value from 1 to 2 (ypT0-2 = 1 point; ypT3-4 = 2 points; ypN0 = 1 point; ypN1-3 = 2 points; ≤50 % residual tumor/tumor bed = 1 point; >50 % residual tumor/tumor bed = 2 points). The three-tiered PRSC was based on the sum value of these factors (group A: 3; group B: 4-5; group C: 6) and was correlated with patients' overall survival (OS). RESULTS The PRSC groups showed significant differences with respect to OS (p < 0.0001; hazard ratio [HR] 2.2 [95 % CI 1.7-2.8]), which could also be demonstrated in both cohorts separately (center 1 p < 0.0001; HR 2.48 [95 % CI 1.8-3.3] and center 2 p = 0.015; HR 1.7 [95 % CI 1.1-2.6]). Moreover, the PRSC showed a more accurate prognostic discrimination than the current UICC staging system (p < 0.0001; HR 1.15 [95 % CI 1.1-1.2]), and assessment of two goodness-of-fit criteria (Akaike Information Criterion and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion) clearly supported the superiority of PRSC over the UICC staging. CONCLUSION The proposed PRSC clearly identifies three subgroups with different outcomes and may be more helpful for guiding further therapeutic decisions than the UICC staging system.

Interim endoscopy results during neoadjuvant therapy for gastric cancer correlate with histopathological response and prognosis

BACKGROUND Neoadjuvant chemotherapy for locally advanced gastric cancer leads to major histopathological response in less than 30 % of patients. Data on interim endoscopic response assessment do not exist. This exploratory prospective study evaluates early endoscopy after 50 % of the chemotherapy as predictor for later response and prognosis. METHODS Forty-seven consecutive patients were included (45 resected; 33 R0 resections). All patients received baseline endoscopy and CT scans, after 50 % of their chemotherapy (EGD-1, CT-1) and after completion of chemotherapy (EGD-2, CT-2). Interim endoscopic response (EGD-1) was assessed after having received 50 % (6 weeks) of the planned 12 weeks of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Post-chemotherapy response was clinically assessed by a combination of CT scan (CT-2) and endoscopy (EGD-2). Histopathological response was determined by a standardized scoring system (Becker criteria). Endoscopic response was defined as a reduction of >75 % of the tumor mass. RESULTS Twelve patients were responders at EGD-1 and 13 at EGD-2. Nine patients (19.1 %) were clinical responders and 7 patients (15.6 %) were histopathological responders after chemotherapy. Specificity, accuracy, and negative predictive value of the interim EGD-1 for subsequent histopathological response were 31/38 (82 %), 36/47 (76 %), and 31/33 (93 %); and for recurrence or death, 28/30 (93.3 %), 38/47 (80.9 %), and 28/35 (80.0 %). Response at EGD-1 was significantly associated with histopathological response (p = 0.010), survival (p < 0.001), and recurrence-free survival (p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS Interim endoscopy after 6 weeks predicts response and prognosis. Therefore, tailoring treatment according to interim endoscopic assessment could be feasible, but the findings of this study should be validated in a larger patient cohort.

Left ventricular dyssynchrony predicts response and prognosis after cardiac resynchronization therapy

OBJECTIVES This study was designed to predict the response and prognosis after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in patients with end-stage heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND Cardiac resynchronization therapy improves HF symptoms, exercise capacity, and left ventricular (LV) function. Because not all patients respond, preimplantation identification of responders is needed. In the present study, response to CRT was predicted by the presence of LV dyssynchrony assessed by tissue Doppler imaging. Moreover, the prognostic value of LV dyssynchrony in patients undergoing CRT was assessed. METHODS Eighty-five patients with end-stage HF, QRS duration >120 ins, and left bundle-branch block were evaluated by tissue Doppler imaging before CRT. At baseline and six months follow-up, New York Heart Association functional class, quality of life and 6-min walking distance, LV volumes, and LV ejection fraction were determined. Events (death, hospitalization for decompensated HF) were obtained during one-year follow-up. RESULTS Responders (74%) and nonresponders (26%) had comparable baseline characteristics, except for a larger dyssynchrony in responders (87 +/- 49 ms vs. 35 +/- 20 ms, p < 0.01). Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis demonstrated that an optimal cutoff value of 65 ms for LV dyssynchrony yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 80% to predict clinical improvement and of 92% to predict LV reverse remodeling. Patients with dyssynchrony :65 ms had an excellent prognosis (6% event rate) after CRT as compared with a 50% event rate in patients with dyssynchrony <65 ins (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Patients with LV dyssynchrony greater than or equal to65 ms respond to CRT and have an excellent prognosis after CRT. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

The Inflation Index Prognosis Based on the Method of Decision-Marking “Tree”

The description of the support system for marking decision in terms of prognosing the inflation level based on the multifactor dependence represented by the decision – marking “tree” is given in the paper. The interrelation of factors affecting the inflation level – economic, financial, political, socio-demographic ones, is considered. The perspectives for developing the method of decision – marking “tree”, and pointing out the so- called “narrow” spaces and further analysis of possible scenarios for inflation level prognosing in particular, are defined.

Multi-agent Systems in the Harvest Prognosis

The paper presents a case study of geo-monitoring a region consisting in the capturing and encoding of human expertise into a knowledge-based system. As soon as the maps have been processed, the data patterns are detected using knowledge-based agents for the harvest prognosis.

Immunotherapy for the treatment of poor prognosis cancers

Cancer is amongst the leading causes of death worldwide and the number one cause in the developed world. Every year there are close to 10 million cancer related deaths and this corresponds to hundreds of millions of euro in health care costs and lost productivity, placing a substantial drain on the economy. The efficacy of traditional treatment modalities for cancer therapy, such as surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy has plateaued, and while they are undoubtedly effective at prolonging patient lifespan, there is a high rate of adverse side effects and fatal reoccurrence. Currently, there is a huge amount of interest in the areas of cancer immunosurveillance and cancer immuno-editing, which explain some of the complex interactions between the host immune system and cancer. If left unchecked, cancerous malignancies have the ability to generate an immunosuppressive microenvironment, effectively shielding themselves from elimination and promoting tumour growth and progression. To overcome this, the potential of the immune system must be harnessed and the work undertaken in this thesis sought to contribute to this goal. Focus was placed on using novel therapies, combining tumour ablation with immune-modulating antibodies to maximise tumour elimination in an immune dependent manner, to overcome immunosuppression and promote immune activation. Chapter 2 focuses on the use of ECT as a method of tumour ablation and its effects on the immune system. ECT proved to be effective at inhibiting the tumour growth both in vitro and in vivo, and conferred significant survival advantages in both small and large animal models. More importantly, ECT proved to cause tumour death in an immune dependent manner, displaying the hallmarks of Immunogenic Cell Death, increases in immune cell infiltration and generating tumour-specific immune responses. Chapter 3 focuses on combining ECT with immune checkpoint blockade inhibitors; anti- CTLA-4 and anti-PD-1. Both combinations proved to be effective at inhibiting both primary and distal tumour growth, indicating the generation of tumour specific immune responses and prolonged animal survival. In addition, the treatments caused increases in the levels of certain intra-tumoural immune cell subsets and modulated the cytokine profile of treated animals in a way that was favourable overall. Chapter 4 focuses on the combining ECT with an anti-iCOS agonist antibody, capable of causing immune co-stimulation. This novel combinational therapy proved to be the most effective by far, with a high cure rate achieved across a number of different in vivo tumour models. Total regression was seen in both primary and distal tumours, as well as spontaneous metastases, with the tumour specific immune response generated conferring total protection to animals on tumour rechallenge. Overall the data presented here adds further insight into the area of cancer immunotherapy with some of the novel combinational therapies demonstrating substantial clinic potential.

The urokinase plasminogen activating system in thyroid cancer: clinical implications

The urokinase plasminogen activator (uPA) system (uPAS) comprises the uPA, its cell membrane receptor (uPAR) and two specific inhibitors, the plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) and 2 (PAI-2). The uPA converts the plasminogen in the serine protease plasmin, involved in a number of physiopathological processes requiring basement membrane (BM) or extracellular matrix (ECM) remodelling, including tumor progression and metastasis. The tumor-promoting role of PAS is not limited to the degradation of ECM and BM required for local diffusion and spread to distant sites of malignant cells, but widens to tumor cell proliferation, adhesion and migration, intravasation, growth at the metastatic site and neoangiogenesis. The relevance of uPAS in cancer progression has been confirmed by several studies which documented an increased expression of uPA, uPAR and PAI-1 in different human malignancies, and a positive correlation between the levels of one or more of them and a poor prognosis. For these reasons, the uPAS components have aroused considerable interest as suitable targets for anticancer therapy, and several pharmacological approaches aimed at inhibiting the uPA and/or uPAR expression or function in preclinical and clinical settings have been described. In the present manuscript, we will first glance at uPAS biological functions in human cancer progression and its clinical significance in terms of prognosis and therapy. We will then review the main findings regarding expression and function of uPAS components in thyroid cancer tissues along with the experimental and clinical evidence suggesting its potential value as molecular prognostic marker and therapeutic target in thyroid cancer patients.

Primary biliary cirrhosis: proposal for a new simple histological scoring system

International audience

Assessment of Risk Factors and Prognosis in Asphyxiated Infants

Background: Asphyxia is considered an important cause of morbidity and mortality in neonates. This condition can affect many vital organs including the central nervous system and may eventually lead to death or developmental disorders. Objectives: Considering the high prevalence of asphyxia and its adverse consequences, the present study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors for birth asphyxia and assess their correlation with prognosis in asphyxiated infants. Patients and Methods: This two-year follow-up cohort study was conducted on 260 infants (110 asphyxiated infants and 150 healthy neonates) at Mashhad Ghaem Hospital during 2007 - 2014. Data collection tools consisted of a researcher-designed questionnaire including maternal and neonatal information and clinical/laboratory test results. The subjects were followed-up, using Denver II test for 6, 12, 18, and 24 months (after discharge). For data analysis, t-test was performed, using SPSS version 16.5. P value ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Of 260 neonates, 199 (76.5%) and 61 (23.5%) cases presented with normal neonatal outcomes and with abnormal neonatal outcomes (developmental delay), respectively. Variables such as the severity of asphyxia (P = 0.000), five-minute Apgar score (P = 0.015), need for ventilation (P = 0.000), and severity of acidosis at birth (P = 0.001) were the major prognostic factors in infants with asphyxia. Additionally, prognosis was significantly poorer in boys and infants with dystocia history (P = 0.000). Conclusions: Prevalence of risk factors for developmental delay including the severity of asphyxia need for mechanical ventilation, and severity of acidosis at birth, dystocia, and Apgar score were lower in surviving infants; therefore, controlling these risk factors may reduce asphyxia-associated complications.

Sleep disorders in Multiple System Atrophy: a longitudinal study

Introduction: A higher frequency of sleep and breathing disorders in Multiple System Atrophy (MSA) populations is documented in literature. The analysis of disease progression and prognosis in patients with sleep and breathing disorders could shed light on specific neuropathology and pathophysiology of MSA. Objective: To characterize sleep disorders and their longitudinal modifications during disease course in MSA patients, and to determine their prognostic value. Methods: This is a retrospective and prospective cohort study including 182 MSA patients (58.8% males). Type of onset was defined by the first reported motor or autonomic symptom/sign related to MSA. The occurrence of symptoms/signs and milestones of disease progression and their latency were collected. REM sleep behaviour disorder (RBD) and stridor were video-polysomnography (VPSG)-confirmed. VPSG recordings were analysed in a standardized fashion during the disease course. Survival data were based on time to death from the first symptom of disease. Results: Isolated RBD represented the first MSA symptom in 30% of patients, preceding disease onset according to international criteria with a median of 3(1–5) years. Patients developing early stridor or presenting with RBD at disease onset showed a more rapid and severe disease progression. These features had independent negative prognostic value for survival. Sleep architecture was characterized by peculiar features which could represent negative markers in MSA prognosis. Patients with stridor treated with tracheostomy showed a reduced risk of death. Conclusions: This is one of the first studies focusing on longitudinal progression of sleep in MSA. Sleep disorders are key features of disease, playing a role in presentation, prognosis and progression. In our MSA cohort, RBD represented the most frequent mode of disease presentation. Moreover, some specific clinical and instrumental sleep features could represent a hallmark of MSA and could be involved in prognosis and, in particular, in sudden death and death during sleep.

Obesity And Inflammation And The Effect On The Hematopoietic System.

Bone marrow is organized in specialized microenvironments known as 'marrow niches'. These are important for the maintenance of stem cells and their hematopoietic progenitors whose homeostasis also depends on other cell types present in the tissue. Extrinsic factors, such as infection and inflammatory states, may affect this system by causing cytokine dysregulation (imbalance in cytokine production) and changes in cell proliferation and self-renewal rates, and may also induce changes in the metabolism and cell cycle. Known to relate to chronic inflammation, obesity is responsible for systemic changes that are best studied in the cardiovascular system. Little is known regarding the changes in the hematopoietic system induced by the inflammatory state carried by obesity or the cell and molecular mechanisms involved. The understanding of the biological behavior of hematopoietic stem cells under obesity-induced chronic inflammation could help elucidate the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in other inflammatory processes, such as neoplastic diseases and bone marrow failure syndromes.

The Value Of The 2005 International Society Of Urological Pathology (isup) Modified Gleason Grading System As A Predictor Of Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy.

To compare time and risk to biochemical recurrence (BR) after radical prostatectomy of two chronologically different groups of patients using the standard and the modified Gleason system (MGS). Cohort 1 comprised biopsies of 197 patients graded according to the standard Gleason system (SGS) in the period 1997/2004, and cohort 2, 176 biopsies graded according to the modified system in the period 2005/2011. Time to BR was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier product-limit analysis and prediction of shorter time to recurrence using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Patients in cohort 2 reflected time-related changes: striking increase in clinical stage T1c, systematic use of extended biopsies, and lower percentage of total length of cancer in millimeter in all cores. The MGS used in cohort 2 showed fewer biopsies with Gleason score ≤ 6 and more biopsies of the intermediate Gleason score 7. Time to BR using the Kaplan-Meier curves showed statistical significance using the MGS in cohort 2, but not the SGS in cohort 1. Only the MGS predicted shorter time to BR on univariate analysis and on multivariate analysis was an independent predictor. The results favor that the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology modified system is a refinement of the Gleason grading and valuable for contemporary clinical practice.